McGruff wrote: SharkHawk wrote:
TeamoftheCentury wrote:I'd actually like to see a trade out of the first round. I know the name, but, I'll admit I don't know much about Rogers... but, doesn't he have character issues? Or, was it grades? Anyway... if Tavon Austin is available at #56... you take him.
Excellent (mock) draft, though, btw.
I'm like the Hawks with Russell Wilson and Bruce Irvin on Tavon Austin. If he's there at 25 I take him, because I could care less where a guy is drafted. I just want to get my guy. I know that the team is smart enough to get multiple first round talents in rounds 1-5. They've done it before, they'll do it again. Austin is the closest thing to Percy Harvin entering this year's draft, and who wouldn't take Harvin in a redraft at 25? Everybody would of course. So I think it's worth it.
Harvin has three inches and 25 pounds on Austin at this point, and Harvin hasn't exactly been the paragon of durability in his career. Austin is at best 2nd round talent. IMO he's closer to Dexter McCluster than he is to Harvin
Thanks for the explanation/justification, but like I said... I am at the point where I could give two craps about "measurables" or "draft value". Everybody has their own little draft system. Mine is to grab the guy I want as soon as I want to in order to assure nobody else does. It's crazy, but here's the thing. I'm not an NFL GM.
However.... I wanted 3 guys out of last year's draft: 1- Russell Wilson 2- Bobby Wagner 3- Robert Turbin. You can ask anybody that knows me if that's who I wanted the Hawks to take. I obviously know you won't, but I wanted those players and thought they'd make a difference.
Now... in my "stupid assed draft system" I go get those players and I don't care what order I take them in, because to me they all fill a void and make the team better. So if I take Wilson in the first round, Turbin in the 2nd, and Wagner in the 3rd, then it is no different to me than grabbing Wagner in the 2nd, Wilson in the 3rd, and Turbin in the 4th. It is a totally asinine way of looking at things. I get that. But I also feel that in the end, if you get the players you want, then why does it matter where they were picked? Some first round talent ALWAYS drops inexplicably, and some 5th round talent ALWAYS gets picked in the first. It is a matter of being right more than you're wrong and getting the players you think will help your team.
So to me... I don't care if Austin is a 2nd round talent.... if I want him bad enough (which I do) I go get him in the 1st IF I have a hunch that somebody else will take him before my 2nd round pick. It makes sense in my world because I don't have to make a trade to move up in the 2nd. I retain my 2nd round pick and all later picks (which is where the great GM's strike gold... look at the Walsh era in SF and what he did in the mid-to late rounds). I feel like a guy that is obviously sliding may make it to my 2nd round pick (a guy I would have taken in the first) and I make the "for sure" Austin pick and then get the leftover players that slipped for no apparent or stupid reasons that I had pegged as firsts in the 2nd. In the end? I have the same 2 players. With the slotting in draft picks pay, I end up paying the same total amount. It really matters to me zero what order I take players in.
I know, this will be picked apart and laughed at and guys will talk about what a buffoon I am and how I don't understand draft pick values, and on and on and the whole Jimmie Johnson system, and I'll say in fact I do understand it. I understand it more than most would ever believe. But... I'm at a point in my life where I see a player and decide, "That guy could help, I want him on my team... I will go get him before somebody else does."
I think Schneider is that type of guy. This isn't to discount his scouting at all, because he's a master. I know his work ethic and organizational skills are impeccable and amazingly thorough. I know he's got a draft board he's working on 24/7 365. But I also know that he had a similar feeling to what I did on Wilson, Wagner, and Turbin. He watched the draft closely, he saw a run on LBer's and he snatched up Wagner in the 2nd, knowing that it was unlikely he'd make it to the third (and I can guarantee he wouldn't have). People were angry he didn't trade up for the guy who went before him, but Schneider was likely happy either way.
He then saw the run on QB's (where the backups start coming off the board like Foles and the like) and he jumped at Wilson because he was concerned he wouldn't make it to the 4th (and rightfully so, you don't risk it), and he knew that by doing so he was taking away one player that several teams were looking for previous to us in the first, and once Wilson was gone then he locked in on his next target. There were some who said Turbin could go in the 2nd when he first declared. Others said "Oh, he's like a 3rd-5th round talent". But regardless of all of that... Schneider and Pete wanted a powerful back who could replace Lynch and also was a good receiver out of the backfield. There were a few available, and backs tend to go in that range, so with his 4th he snags Turbin. So he's got his playmakers on offense and defense at the most coveted positions in DE, MLB, QB, RB all locked up in the first 4 rounds.
Now I challenge any draftnik to look at our top 4 picks and say any of them were bad. They can, and will, and do because of this perceived "value" of each draft pick and its slot and so on and so forth. But to give you 4 random picks and come out of it with Irvin, Wagner, Wilson, and Turbin is stellar. You can roll the dice and take any of the 4 in any of the rounds now... see it does NOT matter where they were picked. You got the 4 guys you want. They could have taken Wilson in round 1 and everybody would have hooted and hollered, and then Irvin MAY have been available in round 2, but probably not.... so in my mind Schneider played it perfectly. He used 4 picks (doesn't matter what round/pick/order/position/etc.) and got 4 players he wanted. Then he did something crazier and grabbed other guys who made the final roster with his remaining picks.
So here's what I'm saying after just going on and on and on... If you like somebody... Draft them. Because if you're as good as Schneider it doesn't matter where you pick them. You'll get the guys you want. He has 10 draft picks this year. Correct? He won't even be able to find enough roster spots for all of them. What one position of need do we really have right now that is needed above all else? Probably guys that can rush the passer, and a gamebreaker. I don't see any amazing talents at rushing the passer that typically make it to 25. But I do see a gamebreaker in Tavon Austin.
So I'm saying I personally would draft him in the first, and I'd be laughed at by Mel Kiper, just like Schneider was when he took Russ in the 3rd. I don't care about weight, height, or anything else. I've watched Austin play and to me he makes plays after getting the ball in his hands just like Russ did in college. That is the measurable I look at now. I don't even delve into the other stuff. You're comparing Harvin's weight and height, and I'm comparing production and FIT. Austin would be a perfect fit in our offensive scheme. Harvin is always hurt (Austin is not, so size isn't a factor).
Harvin is whining about money (Austin will make what he is slotted to make and the team will control him for multiple years). Harvin has migraines. Austin does not. Harvin plays WR, RB, KR. Austin does too. They are both gamebreakers. So the size argument and all of that? I'm beyond it for good. Guys like Baldwin, Russell Wilson, even Red Bryant playing DE have changed my mind on size. The Hawks will put a guy in a position to succeed. I think Austin is one of about 20 guys I've watched closely that would help here, but I think he'd help a ton more than the other 19. That's my view.
If I could take any two players in the draft I'd take Ziggy Ansah and Tavon Austin. Why? Because I think Ziggy was the best pass rusher I watched all year and he's incredibly fast and strong. Tavon Austin was the best playmaker I saw all year (short of Johnny Manziel, who isn't available and isn't a target for this team as we already have a QB who plays that way). So those are the two guys I'd want. If they were there for the picking and the draft was falling my way I'd do what I had to in order to get them. But luckily for all of you, the Hawks only draft the players I want about 1 out of every 10 times. But I will say I hit it big this year on 3 of our first 4 and that makes me happy, because I think in my head now that the team looks for similar traits that I look for. That's a good feeling.
I think they will change traits they look for from year to year, but did you notice that Wagner, Russ, Turbin, and Irvin were all nothing but great in interviews, in public, in private, etc.? They were all stellar teammates and played hard, and fit a certain mold. Highly intelligent guys who had worked their butt off in some regard. Russell... overcoming the height stuff and switching schools and juggling sports while getting amazing grades. Bobby Wagner had to lead a college that was a perennial loser and call the D and came from being too skinny to be recruited, to calling the D from the field as essentially their D coordinator and putting on weight right up through the preseason (and improving every single week on his job). Turbin coming out of a rough neighborhood and having a really hard family life with the disabilities in his family, but going and ASKING his coach if it was ok if he went pro so he could get extra care for his siblings and get them somewhere safer with better facilities and treatments? This guy was told he was too small and wasn't fast enough. Ha. Then Bruce Irvin was written off as a junky and "undraftable". The truth comes out that several more teams wanted him late 1st/early 2nd, and he has shown nothing but maturity and a team player attitude from day 1.
The Hawks know their picks. They know everything about them. They are wise. They get good guys (Winston Guy was a bit of a mess, but they are still letting him work through it and gave him a chance, which to me was classy and showed that we don't give up on you until you force us to!).
That's way too much I know... but it is my total theory on the draft now. Draft a guy too early rather than too late. Take Turbin in the 4th, because it's too risky he won't be there in the fifth. What do you lose? Nothing. You gain a Robert Turbin. Let guys like Kiper second guess and throw out ridiculous comments. The Hawks got the players they wanted.
Now my mock is I want the player I want. I will get him. Everybody will crack up. But I'm ok with that, because those guys will reward you. Tavon Austin IS an NFL player. He will play will. He may not be better than Percy Harvin, but he may be better. If so, I sure hope he's on our team and not in a 49ers uni because they snatched him a couple of picks after we drafted a project. We need players who can move with the ball and "tilt" the field right? Austin is a field tilter regardless of his size or arm length or vertical jump. I can feel it. Watch the guy move after he gets the ball. He is a machine. I'm very grateful he signed with me early. It's good being an NFL agent. Hopefully my Tavon manifesto works, because I need that 10% buddy.