kf3339":33yodgt0 said:
SomersetHawk":33yodgt0 said:
Attyla the Hawk":33yodgt0 said:
endzorn":33yodgt0 said:
I read a while back that compensatory picks are based on contracts and then first year production in the new deal. Tate is having one of the best free agent wide receiver years I can remember. With his sizable contract what are the odds we get a third round pick for him?
Virtually astronomical.
Tate's contract is relatively low compared to the UFAs of his class. His contract is more in the 5th round range (16th out of the 2014 class in terms of dollar amount). What's unknown is how losing more than 4 net qualifying UFAs affects your awarded comp picks.
The performance escalation doesn't seem to factor too much historically. It certainly would factor into which 5th round pick we'd receive. But there are too many UFAs qualifying for comp picks to think Tate's deal would be advanced by a round.
I like this breakdown. It gives us two fourths, a fifth and a sixth.
http://www.fieldgulls.com/2014/3/27/555 ... pd-in-2015
Of course, they haven't factored in the rising salary cap but I'd be pretty annoyed if Golden didn't qualify us for at least a 4th, but yeh, I wouldn't bet on him netting us a 3rd.
That article is from March, 2014 before this season's production was known. If production has any bearing at all I would think Tate's has elevated us to a third round pick. The others seem about right since their production has not jumped up in the same manner.
I read that article too. While I respect Stanger, I disagree with his assertion that Tate's is close to a 3rd round qualifier.
First, the fact that Wright was signed to an average of 7.5 mill in 2013 only netted a 4th round comp pick would strongly indicate that Tate's 6.2 will also only qualify as a 4th round pick.
Additionally, this year's crop of UFA signings is constituted a bit differently. Where in 2013 there were a couple really high value signings (Finnegan and Wallace) and then Kruger at 8m. This year there are a lot of 8m+ signings. In fact Tate's average contract is the 13th highest qualifying contract (3 higher deals were either resignings by original teams or didn't otherwise qualify). It's safer to assume no more than four 3rd round qualifiers for this class. Over the last 5 years the # of 3rd round comp picks awarded looks like thus:
2014: 4
2013: 3
2012: 1
2011: 1
2010: 3
So it's very unlikely that Tate's contract + performance modification will leapfrog 7 other UFA signings. As it is, Tate's contract average puts him very much on the bubble between 4th and 5th round compensation. Based on the composition of the UFA signing pool of last year's class. It's important to remember, that as the cap value increases, the threshold for what a contract qualifies for similarly inflates year over year.
What isn't known yet, is how many of those 13 UFA losses are going to be canceled out by their original teams UFA additions. While Tate's deal currently ranks 13th highest, some of those 13 losses are going to be canceled out because their original teams signed someone else of similar value. This will definitely be the case amongst those that are 4th and 5th round qualifying contracts.
I'd be thrilled if we get a 3rd. I would expect us to end up with one of the top 3-4 comp picks awarded in round 4. I'm sure as we get closer to the draft the actual qualfiers will be sorted out better.
