Question for you smart draft guys

To preface this, I'm not trying to rip anyone's opinion here, especially since most of you can spend more time scouting and watching college football than I can, so I defer to a lot of the consensus here. That said I have an honest question:

There seems to be this general consensus (read: the majority of people have this posted opinion) that Gordon will be going in the top 15 picks in the first round, and Gurley will be gone before we pick in the 31st. General draft history says this isn't true and that most teams are waiting until at least the 2nd round for even elite looking RBs. So what makes these guys so great that they're going to go in the 1st round, and high at that ?

The Gurley predictions in general intrigue me. I've read up on him and found highlights, and he looks like a great physical back with straight line speed. The closest comparison I have for him would be the Marcus Lattimore situation. Lattimore had a better college career, but a worse knee injury. The Niners drafted him in the 4th round, and they were lauded for getting great value there. At that point, no team had even looked like they were luke warm on Lattimore at that point. The Niners had the RB depth (as we do) to redshirt Lattimore and let him come back. We all know the story: he never was able to come back.

Personally, I'd think since that was recent, that would make Gurley's draft stock fall a bit. Teams look at that and the risk is reinforced with recent events. It has worked before; Willis McGahee from Miami tore his ACL in the bowl game, then got drafted (in the 1st round !) by the Bills (?) and went on to have a good career.

So is Gurley really that good ? What about the fact that his back up came in and tore it up as well....does that maybe show it was the system or OL to a small degree ? Honestly, I think it's the perfect situation for us: get a great physical RB and let him sit for a year or two until we can get our depth sorted out. Especially if we could get him in the 3rd or 4th.

What say you ?

Plenty of RBs have torn their ACL and his is not in the same league as the two you mention. No way he lasts till the 3rd or 4th.

San Diego takes Melvin Gordon in the first, and San Francisco takes Gurley in the 2nd.

There's always talk early about player x going in the 1st few picks, but reality sets in a couple of weeks before the draft and the "running back early" talks stops.

Teams value QBs, WRs, TEs, DBs and DE/DTs that can rush the QB. Not to mention offensive linemen to protect that high dollar QB. 30 teams believe it's all about the passing game, so they take players early that can help the passing game, or that can rush the passer.

San Diego is close, and if they had a reliable RB, they would go deep in the playoffs. San Francisco has new coaches that are going to mimic their old coach because of his success. Which means they will take a flyer on an injured RB in the 2nd round that may pay off big later. They would probably prefer to wait until the 3rd, but no way Gurley makes it to their pick.

The Lattimore comparison isn't fair to Gurley. For one, Lattimore didn't have better college numbers, Gurley had fewer carries and more yards. He is way more explosive than Lattimore was. Secondly, the knee injury Lattimore suffered was considerably worse than Gurleys. ACL, MCL, PCL vs the ACL for Gurley. Many players come back full strength from ACLs now.

I for one, wouldn't touch Gurley in the first round, but he is def intriguing after that.

Hawks46":8kguqqfn said:

There seems to be this general consensus (read: the majority of people have this posted opinion) that Gordon will be going in the top 15 picks in the first round, and Gurley will be gone before we pick in the 31st. General draft history says this isn't true and that most teams are waiting until at least the 2nd round for even elite looking RBs. So what makes these guys so great that they're going to go in the 1st round, and high at that ?

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Well, you aren't wrong about questioning whether they will both be gone that early. The Combine hasn't even begun yet, and every year, there are standouts that make it to the second round.

My general observation, is that about half of the guys that get mocked in the 15-32 range end up day 2 (sometimes day 3) picks. Both Gurley and Gordon would qualify for that.

The expectation is, that Gordon is going to really shine both in the testing and in the interview process. He should grade high.

Gurley, heading into the college season, has been widely viewed as the best RB in college since 2013. Pre injury, he was considered the best back since Trent Richardson in terms of pedigree. I never felt Richardson was worthy of his esteem, as he was a smaller back who benefitted from Alabama's talent advantage and didn't display any special/unique quality.

Gurley on the other hand, is a very unique talent. He is an incredibly fluid back for a player close to 230 lbs. Incredible power, and start/stop capability. Demonstrates repeatedly the ability to get low/power through tackles and barely lose momentum. Yet with plus straight line speed.

As in every draft, you have to stand back and look at the whole. This draft is rather light in talent at particular positions. In the draft, you want TD makers, left tackles, pass rushers and then otherwise unique talents. There aren't many QBs to push players down. The DE quality is not terribly strong. There aren't many/any 3 tech interior pass rushers of great talent. The receiver class is deep, but not really at the top. So even if there is a mini run on that position, you're not likely to see teams start dipping into that pool and overdrafting. Especially after so many were picked last year.

The OT class is pretty good. But this is the third straight year of strong talent in that group. Most of the desperate teams for that talent already filled those in recent drafts.

Ultimately, this draft looks really strong up to about 15. After that it kind of looks like the draft plateaus for the next 50 picks. Gurley would have been in that top 15 group sans injury. Gordon's expected combine would be an affirmation of what he displayed in college. That should distinguish him from that 2nd tier of prospects.

Hawks46":8kguqqfn said:

The Gurley predictions in general intrigue me. I've read up on him and found highlights, and he looks like a great physical back with straight line speed. The closest comparison I have for him would be the Marcus Lattimore situation. Lattimore had a better college career, but a worse knee injury. The Niners drafted him in the 4th round, and they were lauded for getting great value there. At that point, no team had even looked like they were luke warm on Lattimore at that point. The Niners had the RB depth (as we do) to redshirt Lattimore and let him come back. We all know the story: he never was able to come back.

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I'd say unquestioningly that you aren't recalling this correctly. Lattimore was never seen as anything other than a day 2 pick. His size/speed/elusiveness really had him pegged as a rather generic but good 2nd round back. His career was never in Gurley's stratosphere.

He had a worse knee injury. And it happened to be his second ACL injury (one to both knees). Gurley is probably a 50-50 proposition to go in round 1. He's definitely a player that will not participate in training camp and would start the season on the PUP.

Like Lattimore, Gurley is a talent that could be great value in the 25-50 overall range. But it would depend on return from injury. Every case is different. They aren't predictive from one to the next.

Hawks46":8kguqqfn said:

So is Gurley really that good ? What about the fact that his back up came in and tore it up as well....does that maybe show it was the system or OL to a small degree ? Honestly, I think it's the perfect situation for us: get a great physical RB and let him sit for a year or two until we can get our depth sorted out. Especially if we could get him in the 3rd or 4th.

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Yeah, he's that good. UGA loads up on RB talent exceptionally well. They are a run heavy team and they draw from a rich pool of talent. Gurley has been that good since his true freshman year. He's a quality receiver. An excellent blocker. Obviously a quality rusher. He stands out from most backs in the first round discussion, because he's a player that doesn't have holes. A true three down back. Injury concerns will drop him. But he is good to even great at all the aspects of his craft out of the box. That breadth of skill set is rare. To have that with his measurables even more so.

Gordon -- sudden runner, sprints like a gazelle, capable home run hitter if you give him a crease, tougher than people think (see: LSU, Auburn). Incredible character and work ethic. Teams will LOVE his character and attitude which is Wilson-esque. The comparisons to Jamaal Charles are legit. Loves the game. Makes incredible moves in the open-field -- very elusive.

Gurley -- would be a top 10/15 pick without the ACL. Incredible combination of size/speed. You don't see guys with this much size sprint like this. He was on kick return duty! Just does it all. Gets the tough yards up the middle, great red zone runner, excellent hands as a receiver, breaks tackles, elusive in the open field, give him a lane and he'll explode. Home run hitter at 230lbs. A total freak of nature.

The reason running backs don't go in the first that often these days is because, for the most part, the prospects aren't good enough to warrant that kind of grade. Gordon and Gurley both deserve first round grades in a year where maybe only 15-20 guys will be graded with firm R1 marks. Good teams looking for an explosive runner will go after them.

I agree with the suggestion San Diego will consider Gordon at #17. I think Baltimore is perfect for Gurley at #26 -- re-sign Forsett and redshirt him for a year. Let him recover. Then let him dominate your offense for the next 6-7 years from 2016.