Did a quick comparison to some prospects from last year on SDB. With several that had questionable hands/drop rate concerns. I'll repost here for comparison
Using those figures and comparing them to drop rates in the NFL:
Rookie Drop rate – name – College drop rate
7.4% – Lee – 12.31%
6.9% – Benjamin – 9.68%
6.1% – Bryant – 12.5%
5.8% – Matthews – 7.69%
4.1% – Moncrief – 11.1%
3.3% – Evans – 4.29%
3.1% – Watkins – 4.49%
1.8% – Landry – 2.5%
1.5% – Beckham – 6.45%
1.5% – Cooks – 4.69%
1.2% – Robinson – 5.43%
0% – Richardson – 8.89%
I think the pattern is stupidly clear. Better QBs in the NFL lead to much better drop rates. In every single case (other than guys that didn’t catch passes at all), these rookies had much better drop rates in their rookie year.
I would call that myth thoroughly debunked. Drop rates should shrink by 30-50% upon reaching the pros.
Ultimately, I don't really view college drop rates as indicative of how they will do at the next level. The drop statistic is incredibly subjective. And further -- drop rates rise and fall drastically due to the limited number of targets in a season. Willson had a 10% drop rate according to Sportingcharts.com. Next year he could be well under 5%. And that could be attributed to just one less bad game.
But the reality is clear: Better QBs throw better passes. Those passes are easier to complete. There is no more clear indication of this, with the drop rates for good/quality QBs and in particular -- good, accurate NFL QBs.
I would expect that any receiver with suspect hands would look marvelous with Wilson throwing the ball. He is one of the more accurate passers in the NFL.
That said, I can see Coates being a Seahawk pick. Even at 31. He should be lights out at the combine. And if you recall, Pete mentioned specifically why he didn't pull the trigger on some of the other big WRs in the draft instead opting for Richardson citing that it's rare to find guys with size that can really run.
Obviously, I believe Bryant could have filled that billing last year. But it wasn't to be. Coates this year should easily fill that billing. And Seattle is notorious for taking some guy you thought might be a 50th to 75th overall type player on day one -- Coates is probably the single best candidate for that type of pick.
Doesn't mean that'll be the pick. But he's in every way similar to Irvin or Richardson in terms of "Damn really? Ok...." kind of pick that Seattle loves to make. His athleticism should tickle the SPARQy parts of Carroll's and Schneider's brains.
