DGB - What am I missing?

Mtjhoyas · Feb 25, 2015

I'm really confused by what people are seeing with him (outside of the obvious size). He had a thoroughly underwhelming Combine performance outside of a pretty good 40 time (small hands, poor vert, meh broad). He has some brilliant tape and some not so good tape and also comes with MAJOR red flags. What am I missing? I get that on paper, he looks awesome but I'm thoroughly underwhelmed with everything I've seen (outside of a few performances - ie Auburn). FYI, this isn't me calling him bad, I'm just not seeing the awe with this guy that mitigates his horrible red flags.

Which brings me to Darren Waller and Chris Conley. 2 guys who are big and more athletic than DGB, and come at a significantly lower price tag, without the MAJOR character red flags. For the DGB proponents, what stands out so much with him, more than these guys; that you'd be willing to spend the R1 pick, especially considering the red flags this guy has?

I really am positing this question out of curiosity. I'm really not trying to be abrasive. Trust me, I understand the appeal of a big athletic WR and desperately want RW to have this type of weapon.

Hawkfan77 · Feb 25, 2015

Mtjhoyas":3quuzy9f said:
I'm really confused by what people are seeing with him (outside of the obvious size). He had a thoroughly underwhelming Combine performance outside of a pretty good 40 time (small hands, poor vert, meh broad). He has some brilliant tape and some not so good tape and also comes with MAJOR red flags. What am I missing? I get that on paper, he looks awesome but I'm thoroughly underwhelmed with everything I've seen (outside of a few performances - ie Auburn). FYI, this isn't me calling him bad, I'm just not seeing the awe with this guy that mitigates his horrible red flags.

Which brings me to Darren Waller and Chris Conley. 2 guys who are big and more athletic than DGB, and come at a significantly lower price tag, without the MAJOR character red flags. For the DGB proponents, what stands out so much with him, more than these guys; that you'd be willing to spend the R1 pick, especially considering the red flags this guy has?

I really am positing this question out of curiosity. I'm really not trying to be abrasive. Trust me, I understand the appeal of a big athletic WR and desperately want RW to have this type of weapon.

I like football players not combine winners

Mtjhoyas · Feb 25, 2015

Hawkfan77":3s6ck0mh said:
Mtjhoyas":3s6ck0mh said:

I'm really confused by what people are seeing with him (outside of the obvious size). He had a thoroughly underwhelming Combine performance outside of a pretty good 40 time (small hands, poor vert, meh broad). He has some brilliant tape and some not so good tape and also comes with MAJOR red flags. What am I missing? I get that on paper, he looks awesome but I'm thoroughly underwhelmed with everything I've seen (outside of a few performances - ie Auburn). FYI, this isn't me calling him bad, I'm just not seeing the awe with this guy that mitigates his horrible red flags.

Which brings me to Darren Waller and Chris Conley. 2 guys who are big and more athletic than DGB, and come at a significantly lower price tag, without the MAJOR character red flags. For the DGB proponents, what stands out so much with him, more than these guys; that you'd be willing to spend the R1 pick, especially considering the red flags this guy has?

I really am positing this question out of curiosity. I'm really not trying to be abrasive. Trust me, I understand the appeal of a big athletic WR and desperately want RW to have this type of weapon.

Click to expand...

I like football players not combine winners

So...again, what are you seeing from DGB that substantiates the massive risk in R1, as opposed to those guys? DGB hasn't played in a year, and it's not like he was a world beater in his first 2 seasons at Mizzou.

Hawkfan77 · Feb 25, 2015

Mtjhoyas":2cdmsug0 said:
Hawkfan77":2cdmsug0 said:

Mtjhoyas":2cdmsug0 said:

I'm really confused by what people are seeing with him (outside of the obvious size). He had a thoroughly underwhelming Combine performance outside of a pretty good 40 time (small hands, poor vert, meh broad). He has some brilliant tape and some not so good tape and also comes with MAJOR red flags. What am I missing? I get that on paper, he looks awesome but I'm thoroughly underwhelmed with everything I've seen (outside of a few performances - ie Auburn). FYI, this isn't me calling him bad, I'm just not seeing the awe with this guy that mitigates his horrible red flags.

Which brings me to Darren Waller and Chris Conley. 2 guys who are big and more athletic than DGB, and come at a significantly lower price tag, without the MAJOR character red flags. For the DGB proponents, what stands out so much with him, more than these guys; that you'd be willing to spend the R1 pick, especially considering the red flags this guy has?

I really am positing this question out of curiosity. I'm really not trying to be abrasive. Trust me, I understand the appeal of a big athletic WR and desperately want RW to have this type of weapon.

Click to expand...

I like football players not combine winners

Click to expand...

So...again, what are you seeing from DGB that substantiates the massive risk in R1, as opposed to those guys? DGB hasn't played in a year, and it's not like he was a world beater in his first 2 seasons at Mizzou.

Beckham and Waller have the same size "small" hands

Attyla the Hawk · Feb 25, 2015

Few things:

1. Potential. With young players, you want to see flashes of dominance. In DGB's first couple of years, you got to see that. Not merely the ridiculous Kentucky game. But in the SECCG as well.

A lot of his potential is kind of unknown. Because the tape on him was from his true freshman/sophomore seasons -- you really only get to see a limited expression of his quality. Those two years should have been his worst of his college career. And they were actually pretty good, with a couple of really explosive performances.

2. Size and speed. I'll agree, his explosion numbers were disappointing. However on tape, you see him reliably performing in getting the high targets. His poor vertical doesn't appear on tape to really affect his ability to go up high and get balls. His short shuttle was not great, as one would expect with his height. His 3 cone was quite good. He's a longer strider who did well on his 10 yard splits.

He does show very good effectiveness on tape. A guy who can take a short pass and turn it into long gains and the ability to break tackles and take it to the house. A guy who has a good sense of using his bigger frame to box out defenders and present a reliable target on slants/curls.

He's a big WR prospect that plays like one would hope a bigger WR prospect would play. But with clear ability to be more dynamic than that. And that was as a 19 and 20 year old.

He's not a 'raw' prospect like some of the other bigger WRs that have been cited on this site. He's a gifted big WR prospect who was still improving throughout his sophomore season. And I think that's very tantalizing for NFL teams who expect he'll have to continue to improve. Obviously not having played last year has truncated that development. From a tape perspective, he provides more than what a typical player at that same level of development does.

He's a guy who had consistency issues, but was becoming more consistent throughout his final year. That demonstration of ability to develop, plus his fluidity at his size is very intriguing.

If you're wanting to compare him to Mike Evans -- they aren't the same prospects. Evans had that third year. Had a quality college QB. And was taken in the top 10 of the draft. DGB didn't have that third year. Or a quality QB. And is being bandied about in the 30th to 70th overall range. There is a realistic expectation that had he played last year and continued his development arc, he'd probably be in the 12th to 25th overall conversation.

He's the equivalent of buying low on a stock. High potential upside based even on the limited body of work. Shows flashes of what he can be. Which is what you expect from a player that young.

Obviously the red flags. Seems like there is always a guy with high potential that comes into the league with "he's off my board" types of issues. Sometimes these players overcome these in ridiculous, even franchise making fashion. Sometimes they are merely harbingers of wasted potential and draft stock.

Conley doesn't have any tape that remotely rivals DGB's. I don't equate flashing talent at the combine as worth more than flashing dominance in game. And Conley doesn't do that. It could be merely his circumstance of his team. But you don't see anything that gives a glimpse of 'wow he at least did it once or twice'. Conley and Waller both don't have any body of work that you can even peer into their potential and say, "That will make a difference for a pro team."

If you don't see that kind of quality in the Kentucky or SECCG tape -- ok we'll agree to disagree. He did garner 59 catches his sophomore year with 12 TDs. Mike Evans managed 69 catches for 12 TDs in his third year. Evans was a year older with a much better QB on a team that had considerably more throwing in it's offense.

Clearly DGB wasn't as magoo as he's painted out to be. I'm not saying he's Evans either. We're not talking about DGB in the top 10. But he was productive over the full course of the season. Not merely the outstanding ones on available tape.

Mtjhoyas · Feb 25, 2015

Great stuff Attyla. It was an honest question, so I appreciate the response and don't necessarily disagree with anything you offered. I especially agree with your assessment about DGB's ability to take a short pass and make something bigger. I think there's no way Waller offers that, where obviously, I think Conley has the physical capability.

And don't get me wrong, I totally understand the appeal of DGB. But again, I was simply trying to understand the appeal of him, as opposed to Conley/Waller much later in the draft. I certainly wasn't trying to imply that Conley/Waller have great tape.

As for me, there's still no way I'd take a chance on DGB in R1. His interviews were off-putting to me (lack of sincerity IMO) and his body language during the combine didn't look like a guy who had fire/passion for this "second life." Again, this is all purely my own speculation/opinion and I'm not claiming it to be gospel.

Attyla the Hawk":3t9ikd6u said:
Few things:

1. Potential. With young players, you want to see flashes of dominance. In DGB's first couple of years, you got to see that. Not merely the ridiculous Kentucky game. But in the SECCG as well.

A lot of his potential is kind of unknown. Because the tape on him was from his true freshman/sophomore seasons -- you really only get to see a limited expression of his quality. Those two years should have been his worst of his college career. And they were actually pretty good, with a couple of really explosive performances.

2. Size and speed. I'll agree, his explosion numbers were disappointing. However on tape, you see him reliably performing in getting the high targets. His poor vertical doesn't appear on tape to really affect his ability to go up high and get balls. His short shuttle was not great, as one would expect with his height. His 3 cone was quite good. He's a longer strider who did well on his 10 yard splits.

He does show very good effectiveness on tape. A guy who can take a short pass and turn it into long gains and the ability to break tackles and take it to the house. A guy who has a good sense of using his bigger frame to box out defenders and present a reliable target on slants/curls.

He's a big WR prospect that plays like one would hope a bigger WR prospect would play. But with clear ability to be more dynamic than that. And that was as a 19 and 20 year old.

He's not a 'raw' prospect like some of the other bigger WRs that have been cited on this site. He's a gifted big WR prospect who was still improving throughout his sophomore season. And I think that's very tantalizing for NFL teams who expect he'll have to continue to improve. Obviously not having played last year has truncated that development. From a tape perspective, he provides more than what a typical player at that same level of development does.

He's a guy who had consistency issues, but was becoming more consistent throughout his final year. That demonstration of ability to develop, plus his fluidity at his size is very intriguing.

If you're wanting to compare him to Mike Evans -- they aren't the same prospects. Evans had that third year. Had a quality college QB. And was taken in the top 10 of the draft. DGB didn't have that third year. Or a quality QB. And is being bandied about in the 30th to 70th overall range. There is a realistic expectation that had he played last year and continued his development arc, he'd probably be in the 12th to 25th overall conversation.

He's the equivalent of buying low on a stock. High potential upside based even on the limited body of work. Shows flashes of what he can be. Which is what you expect from a player that young.

Obviously the red flags. Seems like there is always a guy with high potential that comes into the league with "he's off my board" types of issues. Sometimes these players overcome these in ridiculous, even franchise making fashion. Sometimes they are merely harbingers of wasted potential and draft stock.

Conley doesn't have any tape that remotely rivals DGB's. I don't equate flashing talent at the combine as worth more than flashing dominance in game. And Conley doesn't do that. It could be merely his circumstance of his team. But you don't see anything that gives a glimpse of 'wow he at least did it once or twice'. Conley and Waller both don't have any body of work that you can even peer into their potential and say, "That will make a difference for a pro team."

If you don't see that kind of quality in the Kentucky or SECCG tape -- ok we'll agree to disagree. He did garner 59 catches his sophomore year with 12 TDs. Mike Evans managed 69 catches for 12 TDs in his third year. Evans was a year older with a much better QB on a team that had considerably more throwing in it's offense.

Clearly DGB wasn't as magoo as he's painted out to be. I'm not saying he's Evans either. We're not talking about DGB in the top 10. But he was productive over the full course of the season. Not merely the outstanding ones on available tape.

brimsalabim · Feb 25, 2015

Didn't Kentucky have one of the worst defenses in college football that season? They may be sandbagging but the Chiefs know him pretty well and have said publicly that Cter speaking with him they don't have much interest.
I would think that he would need to really convince JS that he is ready to buy in to the team and work with Russell.

I'd rather use our first on another need and pick up a kid like Tre McBride with a later pick. He is a hard worker a team guy and a smart kid too.

titan3131 · Feb 25, 2015

I was enticed by his measurables, but I have fell out of it. I would rather take a flyer on darrell warren.

My draft mock sim doesn't even have him on the list.

ImTheScientist · Feb 25, 2015

I remember when the hawks passed on Randy Moss.

Hawkfan77 · Feb 25, 2015

ImTheScientist":2aoee60z said:
I remember when the hawks passed on Randy Moss.

Wait...I thought Dallas was the only team to pass on Moss? At least thats how ESPN and the NFLN want me to remember that draft.

theENGLISHseahawk · Feb 26, 2015

ImTheScientist":3946olkn said:
I remember when the hawks passed on Randy Moss.

Totally different players. Moss had mass college production and ran a 4.25 for a start.

Hawks46 · Feb 26, 2015

My biggest problem is the red flags. Guys like Josh Gordon, Blackmon, and Dez Bryant have all had lesser red flags (less of them, and not as bad); you knew they had attitude issues but you didn't see the blatant problem with the law. If you draft a guy with potential, and he can't stay on the field because of off the field stuff, he'll never see that potential. I don't see a guy washing out on the field as a wasted pick. That happens, and no one hits on every pick. But, taking a flyer on a guy like this in the 1st round, then watching him flunk out of the league IS a wasted pick in my opinion.

Blackmon and Gordon are on the verge of flaming out. Dez Bryant is such a headache, that even with all his production the Cowboys are reticent to offer him very much guaranteed money, which he isn't liking. Even freaking Jerry Jones is worried about this guy.

It drives me crazy that I see this kid projected to us a lot, and all the way up to 15th.

If we could get Conley in the 4th, I would be down. He has great athleticism, but not a lot of targets. Georgia was a very run heavy team that didn't target their WRs a lot. Sound familiar ? I think he'd fit in here, and we'd get him cheaper than DGB

DGB - What am I missing?

Mtjhoyas

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Hawkfan77

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Mtjhoyas

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Hawkfan77

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Attyla the Hawk

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Mtjhoyas

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brimsalabim

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ImTheScientist

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