Seahawks so ahead of the draft curve

Part of the problem with prognosticating Seahawks' drafts is that Pete and John are so far ahead of most of us (that, and they draft to specific talents that mesh into their scheme and not many others do that).

Listening to ESPN radio today, and it really sounds like 5-7 of the teams at the back end of the 1st round want to trade down, and the usual suspects would love to trade up. You know, the guys that always "win" FA and are still drafting at the top of the 1st round annually.

Seems like a lot of GMs have the same thought about the 1st round, where the top half looks good and the rest are basically 2nd and 3rd rounders. I love that Pete and John were so far ahead of this with the Jimmy Graham trade.

Essentially we picked up Graham in the 1st round. Seriously, what player is going to have the same impact in the 1st round this year ?

Honestly, this is a huge draft for Pete/John in my estimation.

The last two drafts have been absent any of the great picks of 2010, 2011 and 2012. I kind of see this draft as a bit of a tie breaker of sorts.

When Pete came into the league, there was plenty of chatter that he had an advantage over his peers by the immediate experience in the college game and recruiting. I didn't pay that much credence. But it was forecast that as his experience at the college level faded, he'd regress to the NFL mean.

The results of the last two drafts would certainly back that original assertion up. I definitely do believe the 'ahead of the curve' laurels were earned exclusively in the first three years. The last two drafts have been similarly off the reservation in large part and the returns have been pretty poor. Missing out on significant talents in order to draft 'our kinds of guys'. Well those guys haven't produced and certainly aren't poised to produce in the same manner that Sherman/Chancellor/Wright were.

I'd like to see some players who can start to fill out the next core of talent. A three year stretch of adding virtually no young core talent is a solid way to truncate your championship window. We saw something similar with the Patriots, who suffered a run of bad drafts and were it not for playing in a cupcake division -- would have sent them back to the pack.

This draft is big. If we don't add significant talent -- talent deep in the draft -- then it increasingly looks like we just got stupid lucky and benefited from an enhanced level of familiarity with prospects. We will have had 3 very good drafts, followed by 3 poor drafts.

A lot of players we drafted in '13 and '14 have stuck on our roster. But right now, I'm not sure we see more than a couple of those players as being valuable enough to tender a second contract.

In my opinion if we don't nail this draft our championship window closes in a couple of years. JS and PC obviously know this as well which Is why I think we're going to see a different strategy from them this year.

Very excited!

winforever

We got a pro bowl TE in the first round BEFORE the draft.

We win.

Good first couple of posts.

Trading for Jimmy was the best move they could have made with their #31 pick, and should be counted as part of the draft, but I think any fan would have made that trade. The real magic is finding talent outside of the first round.

Pete and John have had an average couple of drafts last two years. With 11 picks it would be disappointing if they don't walk away with some impact players and contributing depth. I have faith in them, though.

I'm just wondering. If they indeed only graded 16 players worthy of 1st round what does their second tier look like? Because you could add 16 players to it if that is the case.

Largent80":3073r2k3 said:

I'm just wondering. If they indeed only graded 16 players worthy of 1st round what does their second tier look like? Because you could add 16 players to it if that is the case.

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I reckon they have about 50 players listed as 2nd round talent.

Their last two drafts haven't been awesome. They need to really nail this with 11 picks.

If they value a LT who falls to #63 or an impact DL they have to pick him. WR and OL they have all day on Saturday to get some candidates.

Attyla the Hawk":18scwvba said:

Honestly, this is a huge draft for Pete/John in my estimation.

The last two drafts have been absent any of the great picks of 2010, 2011 and 2012. I kind of see this draft as a bit of a tie breaker of sorts.

When Pete came into the league, there was plenty of chatter that he had an advantage over his peers by the immediate experience in the college game and recruiting. I didn't pay that much credence. But it was forecast that as his experience at the college level faded, he'd regress to the NFL mean.

The results of the last two drafts would certainly back that original assertion up. I definitely do believe the 'ahead of the curve' laurels were earned exclusively in the first three years. The last two drafts have been similarly off the reservation in large part and the returns have been pretty poor. Missing out on significant talents in order to draft 'our kinds of guys'. Well those guys haven't produced and certainly aren't poised to produce in the same manner that Sherman/Chancellor/Wright were.

I'd like to see some players who can start to fill out the next core of talent. A three year stretch of adding virtually no young core talent is a solid way to truncate your championship window. We saw something similar with the Patriots, who suffered a run of bad drafts and were it not for playing in a cupcake division -- would have sent them back to the pack.

This draft is big. If we don't add significant talent -- talent deep in the draft -- then it increasingly looks like we just got stupid lucky and benefited from an enhanced level of familiarity with prospects. We will have had 3 very good drafts, followed by 3 poor drafts.

A lot of players we drafted in '13 and '14 have stuck on our roster. But right now, I'm not sure we see more than a couple of those players as being valuable enough to tender a second contract.

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Unfortunately our first pick is 63 this draft .

Attyla the Hawk":qbu45izo said:

Honestly, this is a huge draft for Pete/John in my estimation.

The last two drafts have been absent any of the great picks of 2010, 2011 and 2012. I kind of see this draft as a bit of a tie breaker of sorts.

When Pete came into the league, there was plenty of chatter that he had an advantage over his peers by the immediate experience in the college game and recruiting. I didn't pay that much credence. But it was forecast that as his experience at the college level faded, he'd regress to the NFL mean.

The results of the last two drafts would certainly back that original assertion up. I definitely do believe the 'ahead of the curve' laurels were earned exclusively in the first three years. The last two drafts have been similarly off the reservation in large part and the returns have been pretty poor. Missing out on significant talents in order to draft 'our kinds of guys'. Well those guys haven't produced and certainly aren't poised to produce in the same manner that Sherman/Chancellor/Wright were.

I'd like to see some players who can start to fill out the next core of talent. A three year stretch of adding virtually no young core talent is a solid way to truncate your championship window. We saw something similar with the Patriots, who suffered a run of bad drafts and were it not for playing in a cupcake division -- would have sent them back to the pack.

This draft is big. If we don't add significant talent -- talent deep in the draft -- then it increasingly looks like we just got stupid lucky and benefited from an enhanced level of familiarity with prospects. We will have had 3 very good drafts, followed by 3 poor drafts.

A lot of players we drafted in '13 and '14 have stuck on our roster. But right now, I'm not sure we see more than a couple of those players as being valuable enough to tender a second contract.

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This is a terrific post. It seems a lot of Seahawks fans have ignored the last couple draft classes. When you also factor some of the poor trade decisions by JS I am a little leery of saying our current brain trust is "so ahead of the curve". They really need to nail this class especially since we are up against the cap. The Rams are really making me nervous...

Found an interesting article about this draft and some interesting stats from the PC / JS era. Copy and paste from the Tacoma News Tribune -

Schneider and Carroll have drafted 48 players since they took over the team in January 2010. Of those, 42 are still in the NFL and two are playing in the Canadian Football League. They've drafted 30 guys in the past three years. All 30 are still in the NFL.

Of those 48 draftees since 2010, 27 (56 percent) have become key Seahawks contributors, with 18 of those 27 starters. Seattle selected 11 of those 18 starters in rounds three through seven, far from the marquee, hyped first round.

That includes Russell Wilson (third round, 2012), Richard Sherman (fifth round, 2011), Maxwell (sixth round, 2011), Super Bowl 48 Most Valuable Player Malcolm Smith (seventh round, 2011), Kam Chancellor (fifth round, 2010) and J.R. Sweezy (seventh round, 2012).

This year with the 11 picks - including four compensatory selections in rounds four (No. 134 overall), five (170) and six (209 and 214) - the Seahawks have a stockpile from which they can make a deal.


If you look at the players drafted over the last couple of years, few have made a direct impact on the field. They are still on the roster though. It will be interesting to see if last years class will have an impact this year?

irocdave":3be234rm said:

Found an interesting article about this draft and some interesting stats from the PC / JS era. Copy and paste from the Tacoma News Tribune -

Schneider and Carroll have drafted 48 players since they took over the team in January 2010. Of those, 42 are still in the NFL and two are playing in the Canadian Football League. They've drafted 30 guys in the past three years. All 30 are still in the NFL.

Of those 48 draftees since 2010, 27 (56 percent) have become key Seahawks contributors, with 18 of those 27 starters. Seattle selected 11 of those 18 starters in rounds three through seven, far from the marquee, hyped first round.

That includes Russell Wilson (third round, 2012), Richard Sherman (fifth round, 2011), Maxwell (sixth round, 2011), Super Bowl 48 Most Valuable Player Malcolm Smith (seventh round, 2011), Kam Chancellor (fifth round, 2010) and J.R. Sweezy (seventh round, 2012).

This year with the 11 picks - including four compensatory selections in rounds four (No. 134 overall), five (170) and six (209 and 214) - the Seahawks have a stockpile from which they can make a deal.


If you look at the players drafted over the last couple of years, few have made a direct impact on the field. They are still on the roster though. It will be interesting to see if last years class will have an impact this year?

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Good post. The last two drafts have been about filling in depth and churning the bottom of the roster. Sure, we've tried WR and a few other skill positions, but mostly, it's been about the future.

It's honestly what you'd expect when you're drafting into the deepest and most talented team in the league. I agree with Atylla in that we have a few more holes this year than in the past and we need to hit on guys to fill them.

Is because they draft players that love football, ones that can deal with adversity, and love to compete. They fight hard to continue to play on any team in any league because that's what they love.

If the point is that we need to get at least two, maybe three, impact starters out of this draft I completely agree. I also desperately hope that a player or two, or three, from the last two year's drafts finally step up. I'm actually a little worried. Marsh, that frenchy kid at LB, Norwood, etc gotta be healthy and contribute.

It's been harder for players in the last few drafts to make an impact or even make the team on a stacked roster. This wasn't the case when Pete and John first showed up.

Don't forget the lack of top picks the last few years, add a very deep roster and finally add drafting at the end of every round. That last part is basically the same as skipping a round vs the teams picking first. Our 2nd round is their third round tier etc

Agree though. This year will be telling. Less depth showed itself last year so should be room to make the roster

Hawks46":haeplgya said:

It's honestly what you'd expect when you're drafting into the deepest and most talented team in the league. I agree with Atylla in that we have a few more holes this year than in the past and we need to hit on guys to fill them.

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Oh no question. That's the nature of the beast when you're picking late.

But I guess my question is: Generally the narrative for draft conversations has been: We need to get depth. Which is bizarre to me, because when you're picking late in the rounds ... that need should definitely not be on the table.

I will concede, that Jimmy Graham for our first round pick is awesome return. Right now... day 1.... I say Seattle is the clear winner of the day considering we gave up Stephon Anthony for Jimmy Graham basically straight up. That's stealing candy from a baby.

My concern isn't at the top of the rounds. It's the day 3 picks. I've said this many times, but it bears repeating: Championships are built on day 3. And Seattle needs to bolster it's day 3 magic.

We shouldn't have the holes on depth that we do have. Right now we have a lot of depth guys elevating to more prominent roles and these guys don't appear to be as well equipped to handle the load like the depth guys we acquired in 2010-12 (Sherman, Chancellor, Maxwell, Wright, Sweezy). These were all day 3 guys that appeared virtually immediately to be starters of the future. I don't see any players in the '13/14 drafts to have that kind of cache.

The good thing is ... if we're talking about depth issues -- that's a problem that can be solved in a single draft. That's what makes this draft so big for me. We can correct 2 straight years of magoo drafting in a single day.

Well, when you go to a Superbowl twice in a row, and win one, teams will try to poach your roster.

We've done a great job of retaining all of our impact starters to this point, so we're working on upgrading rotational players and depth, because they get poached too. Plus, our depth is so good, that many teams think they can start elsewhere.

I don't see the "degree of whiffing" that a lot of you guys are.

Hill was a "questionable" pick by a lot of analysts, and I think he's lived up to exactly what he was supposed to do: use his hands and quickness to get penetration and disrupt the pocket. It was a very telling difference in our interior pass rush when he went down.

Kevin Pierre-Louis. We can definately see the potential. He has the athleticism that the coaching staff craves, but he's a bit light in the pants. I hope he can stay healthy.

Simon. He's another guy that has all the tools and talent, but can't stay healthy.

Patrick Lewis. He did as well as you could expect, playing out of position and with very little experience. Any progression here and we have an above average center.

Those are just three, but I also realize that the last couple of drafts we've drafted guys that are projects and needed development. Guys like Shead, Dion Bailey, Patrick Lewis, and Eric Pinkins. They haven't produced much yet, but the coaching staff is looking for growth and progression. The guys they've drafted weren't expected to produce right away, but they are getting to that point that they need to grow into the quality depth that we need. Right at the point that we're losing starters......this was planned.

I do agree that we're relying on a lot of question marks, either guys staying healthy or progressing. Think about it: if Lewis, Pinkins, Shead, Bailey (any one of those three), or Matthews, Norwood or Richardson progress and get any better.....we have another quality WR to pair with Baldwin and Graham, we have a solid, athletic Center, we have Safety depth and/or CB depth.....it all starts to fall together really quickly and we're scary deep again. Not all of them, just one or so from each position group. The personnel is there.

Tech Worlds":egfonyhc said:

It's been harder for players in the last few drafts to make an impact or even make the team on a stacked roster. This wasn't the case when Pete and John first showed up.

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It takes 2 years now to get a bead on the draft pick now, a great example of that is Hill. There is so much depth that with a few exceptions, like Richardson, the first year is a redshirt year with limited play and a great chance the guy gets stashed on IR.

For most of the roster, this is a college program. Redshirt, compete for a spot the 2nd year, and the last two years cement your value or move on to another team. It took 4 years to get there, but those picks that move on become compensatory picks. This is the cycle of value they envisioned all along.

The other thing to like is that while we do need to find some starters this year, we don't need them at those super difficult to find outlier talent positions. OL, interior DL, LB...those guys can be found and trained a lot easier than some other positions.

Moving forward, the patience Pete has for developing players is going to be the divider between him and all the copycats arising in the NFL right now. Drafting rangy sparQ players is no longer Pete's secret. But skill of training them up will continue to be Pete's edge.