I have a lot of thoughts on this game.
For starters, I want to communicate that I have a lot of respect for WSU and am actually quite happy for their success this year. Back in the 90s and early 2000s there was a nice stretch when both UW and WSU were legit Pac-10 contenders and nationally relevant programs, and for a time the Apple cup was one of the better rivalry games in the conference. When WSU represented the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl I cheered like crazy for them. I generally root for them in bowl games as well. They represent the State of Washington as much as UW does, so in a lot of ways I view UW / WSU as a White Sox / Cubs or Angels / Dodgers kind of relationship.
I also think Mike Leach is a solid coach and a fun listen in press conferences. And Luke Falk is not just a system guy, but a clutch performer. Falk is probably a future NFL draft pick.
Long story short, I like WSU and am quite happy that this game feels relevant again.
As far as the game itself, my assumption is that Falk will play. Some coaches take concussion protocol seriously, others (like Bill Belichick and Jeff Fisher) see it as more of a hindrance. Leach seems like the kind of old school coach that would fit into the latter category, and his angry and defiant answers to concussion questions all week make me think he's already got Falk penciled in regardless of what the doctor's say. We'll see what happens but I'll be surprised if Falk sits. With a win WSU would basically assure themselves a Holiday Bowl bid.
On the flip side, it's up in the air whether Qualls or Feeney will play, and they are arguably the two best defenders UW has. Personally, I hope everyone plays, assuming that Falk is cleared by doctors.
WSU is having a good season, and their 8-3 record is fair. I think UW is WAY better than their 5-6 record, considering that they have a very good defense, good special teams, one of the best RBs in the conference, and a QB that is coming on strong. Unfortunately, UW has suffered in close games, going 1-3 in games decided by one score (WSU is 4-3 in close games). A couple plays, a couple calls go different and UW is 7-4.
It's been a maddening season for UW. It's not much fun going 5-6 with +106 scoring differential. WSU is 8-3 with a +64 scoring differential. The later type of a season is a heck of a lot more fun, even though WSU has exerted dominance less often than UW has.
UW has played a slightly tougher schedule than WSU while producing a better point differential. Does that mean UW will win the Apple Cup? I don't know. But it does mean that the computers will probably favor UW, and it turns out,
they do. The S&P forumla, created by a football outsiders staff member, not only has UW winning but winning by an average margin of 11.2 points, with a 74.1% chance overall to win this week.
And its no disrespect to WSU, but that prediction feels right to me, even if Falk plays. That doesn't mean I don't think WSU can't win or that they aren't having a really good season. But UW has come on very strong in the latter half of this season, only to be masked by some tough losses, like the SB XL-esque Utah game or the game against ASU where UW lost by 10 despite outgaining ASU by 150 yards. When not being sabotaged by refs or shooting themselves in the foot at clutch moments in games, UW has looked like a dominant team the past month.
My big worry as a UW fan is that Falk plays, but Feeney and Qualls do not, and that could be game changer the same way it was in the Super Bowl when Edelman came back from his concussion but Avril did not. That said, if everyone plays in this game I would feel pretty good about UW winning because I think they are a more complete team that WSU and have quietly played some extremely good football over the past month.
