Not a big fan of trading down this year

Something I've seen over and over in fan mocks are trades, always of the trade down variety. While I generally believe that trading down is smarter than trading up, trading away a pick isn't something a team should do every single year. There are situations where it is good to trade, and situations where it is good to stay.

When Seattle traded their 1st round pick for Harvin in 2013, there were some really nice players being projected for the late 1st, including DeAndre Hopkins. When Seattle traded down for Paul Richardson the next year, they passed on Joel Bitonio to do it. And while I think the trade down for Irvin was worth it, they passed on Fletcher Cox to do so. Trading down can sometimes come at a stiff cost, so it's worth considering that.

Some years and some situations are good for trading down. 2011 was a good year to trade down, though unfortunately it was a bear market for trades and Seattle couldn't trade the pick. The back end of the 1st round in 2015 was pretty weak as well, so it made sense that Seattle made that pick expendable to land Jimmy Graham.

This year is looking like it might be one of those years where staying put makes more sense. This is looking like one of those drafts, like 2013, where the first wave of talent is loaded with hype jobs but the 2nd wave is actually pretty good. Guys like Shon Coleman, Jack Conklin, Darron Lee, Emmanuel Ogbah, Ezekiel Elliot, Leonard Floyd, and so on. Odds are pretty good that at least one of those players will make it to #26. And personally, I'd much rather have one of those studs than trade it for the next Justin Britt + the next Jordan Hill.

Just my opinion, but I'm hoping Seattle stays put this year. My 'draft nightmare' is that Seattle passes on some of these guys to move down, only to have Arizona snag Ogbah at #29.

Even if Seattle doesn't trade down, they still have 9 picks, including three picks on day 2. Seattle is already well positioned to take advantage of a draft that is strongest in the second wave, and their first pick could actually be really nice this year to boot.

The more I study this draft the more it looks like it is set on a tee for John Schneider. It reminds me a little of 2010 from a GM perspective in that he didn't have to move at all and still got all the players he wanted.

I concur KIP!

Though I have been warming up to the idea of trading out of the second. What do you think abbout that and what is the cost? a 3rd + 4th? If so im a fan of this.

I've seen several mocks where I actually liked the picks/talent in the second round more than the first.

They don't need to trade down as they have about 27 picks already.

As of right now... I'm a fan of trading down a little to pick up an extra picks because I think their's a good chance the guy we want will be there for us anyways. Coleman, Spriggs, Billings, Conklin, Kelly, Martin... I just don't think we lose much by trading down and we gain a pick or two on the 2nd day. While their isn't any real standout players in this draft, I like the depth and I think the possibility of picking up an excellent prospect on the 2nd day makes trading down worth the trade. Of course, a lot of this depends on how the draft plays out before our pick. If Stanley or Treadwell happened to slide to us for some unthinkable reason; we'd be stupid not to stay put and make the pick. I just don't see us losing that much quality in a player if we trade down. I also look at the fact that most of our 1st round picks suck. JS & PC seem to do better at drafting after round 1, so... let's just skip the miss and get to their strong suit.

I'd like to see a first round pick again this year. There should be plenty of Offensive linemen still out there. Spriggs, Conklin, Coleman, Decker and Ifedi are all possibilities at that point. What about Defensive line? Ogbah or Dodd would be interesting prospects to look at as DE and there's simply so much 1st round possibility at DT. Take a chance on Nkemdiche? Get one of the Alabama guys and be assured of an elite run blocker? Get Rankins as a premier pass rusher or take someone like Butler, Kenny Clark or Austin Johnson who don't excell at either run stuffing or pass rushing but generally do really well at both. Take a day 1 starter at OLB to replace Irvin. Deion Jones or Kyler Fackrell could very well be there. What about an elite corner like Eli Apple or an elite WR like Josh Doctson?

There are so many opportunities here, Staying put and taking the guy we like the most could benefit us in the long run.

You also have to consider that trading down to get more picks does not necessarily warrant that pick actually making the team. If anything, packaging picks to make sure you secure good talent early seems to make sense for teams with few needs. I'm not saying that's exactly what Seattle is now, but...

titan3131":3bobe2eq said:

Though I have been warming up to the idea of trading out of the second. What do you think abbout that and what is the cost? a 3rd + 4th? If so im a fan of this.

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It definitely feels like the draft is more wide-open at #56 than at #26. There will probably be 1-2 standouts at #26 vs. about a half-dozen interchangeable values at #56. Then again, what if a guy like Ryan Kelly, Cody Whitehair, Le'Raven Clark, or Nick Martin is still barely hanging around at #56?

Ultimately, you should have players you like and target where you want them. For example, Seattle liked Russell Wilson enough to take him at #12 overall, but they felt they could get him at #75, so they targeted him at that spot. They targeted Luke Willson in round 5 of 2013. It's really funny but, quite often, a GM's favorite player in the draft isn't even a 1st rounder, and they end up "building their draft" around finding a way to get that player. Another example is Seattle dealing up to get Tyler Lockett.

I guess the point of this thread is that when I look at the players I expect Seattle to have interest in, it's almost uncanny how those players are showing up in mocks right around the mid-20s, or again in the mid-50s, and again in the late 3rd round. It's pretty uncommon to have a draft fall this nicely for a team, so I see an opportunity where easy money is there on the table for Seattle, no moves necessary. Again, it reminds me of 2010 when JS just stood pat all draft long and had the picks come to him because the draft fell so wonderfully for him.

cheese22":2whc43bb said:

I've seen several mocks where I actually liked the picks/talent in the second round more than the first.

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There's a few guys I think Seattle should sprint to the podium for if they last to #26. Ogbah, Lee, and maybe Floyd. Those guys are all top 15 talents, IMO.

That said, if Seattle is hell bent on reaching for guys like Germain Ifedi and Cody Whitehair with their first pick, then I'd definitely want to see them trade down first. All I'm saying is that to my eye, I see some Dez Bryant stories this year, guys with obvious elite talent that are lasting until the back end of the first round for insufficient reasons. If one of them makes it to #26, I want to see the Seahawks all over it.

Only way I think we should trade down is if Lynch is still available at 26 and someone is willing to give us a king's ransom for him it would be worth it. Otherwise there will likely be some top tier talents that fall.

It really puts it in perspective when you name the guys we missed out on, like Hopkins, Bitonio and Cox. Just think what our offense would look like with either Hopkins, Bitonio, or both.

I know with Pete and John it's usually about where the draft board falls. I'm never adverse to trading down unless someone really nice falls to us, or we get good draft value out of it. Multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks would be worth it this year.

I get what English is saying though. If you don't grab one of the 2nd tier of Offensive Tackles, it's going to be a project. And I have a feeling teams are going to reach on a guy like Clark a bit higher than normal as the 2nd tier of Tackles look underwhelming and it's all over after that.

Historically, Pete and John address situations like this before the draft, so their entire draft board doesn't revolve around addressing that need. I'm just curious how they're going to do it when basically every half way decent OT in FA is already being locked up.

I'm very confident Seattle takes an offensive tackle at #26.

If they move down into round two -- they'll likely be all gone. I think they take one of Ifedi, Spriggs, Coleman or Clark in round one.

theENGLISHseahawk":2r977uzx said:

If they move down into round two -- they'll likely be all gone. I think they take one of Ifedi, Spriggs, Coleman or Clark in round one.

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I agree that a reach on a tackle with the first pick feels likely. Probably for Ifedi or Whitehair. Not what I would do, personally.

I do like Coleman enough to take the plunge at #26, but he's pretty risky and Tom Cable has had issues with motivationally-challenged linemen.

Conklin is growing on me, but I think he'll be long gone by #26.

Spriggs reminds me of Britt. He's a lightweight who gets pushed around in protection, but in the run game he is consistently in control and flashes dominance. And unlike Britt he could add 20 pounds if needed and probably not lose much athleticism. He has that blue collar mentality that will appeal to Cable, but he's kind of a love/hate prospect for me. Again, like Britt.

Clark's tape is really bad, and even though he has the tools of a LT, he's a massive leaner and I don't know if you can coach that out of a guy. He'll probably have to move inside to LG and even then, I'm not sure if he'd be any good. I think he'll go a lot later than people think. Third round, maybe fourth.

Gilliam with a year of experience under his belt might make for a better LT than a lot of these guys would. Gilliam does have a pretty high ceiling if he puts it together. I'm really curious to see where the FO places Gilliam in their long term plans.

kearly":1vu8hl1z said:

theENGLISHseahawk":1vu8hl1z said:

If they move down into round two -- they'll likely be all gone. I think they take one of Ifedi, Spriggs, Coleman or Clark in round one.

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I agree that a reach on a tackle with the first pick feels likely. Probably for Ifedi or Whitehair. Not what I would do, personally.

I do like Coleman enough to take the plunge at #26, but he's pretty risky and Tom Cable has had issues with motivationally-challenged linemen.

Clark's tape is really bad, and even though he has the tools of a LT, he's a massive leaner and I don't know if you can coach that out of a guy. He'll probably have to move inside to LG and even then, I'm not sure if he'd be any good. I think he'll go a lot later than people think. Third round, maybe fourth.

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It all depends on FA. If Okung walks our tackle depth is rough. Gilliam Bailey Britt Poole?? Not very inspiring.

EverydayImRusselin":33s6pnsi said:

It all depends on FA. If Okung walks our tackle depth is rough. Gilliam Bailey Britt Poole?? Not very inspiring.

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There are other options. Eugene Monroe is expected to be released, for example. Joe Thomas was rumored to be on the trade block. Maybe Okung stays (unlikely, but possible).

Even if Seattle really is desperate for a tackle come draft day, that doesn't excuse making a desperate pick. That's the kind of process that got us in this situation to begin with.

I think it would be crazy to use 26 on a LT this year with so much defensive talent to be had. I really like Spriggs, but think he will be long gone by 26. Besides, I think they're going to put Gilliam over there.

With their consistent failures on the OL, it would kill me if they reached yet again when there is so much 2nd level talent to be had later.

I've really warmed up to Ogbah and think that a rush DE is a huge need for this team. It's between him and Sheldon Rankins at 26 for me, with Vernon Butler next, followed by Andrew Billings. The NFCW has great running teams and we need to stop the run first which is why it wouldn't surprise me if they took Butler/Billings at 26 with Ogbah or Rankins on the board. I hope they re-sign Mebane and Tuba though so that they can go for pass rush help first.

The only reason I would trade out of 26 is if some QB desperate team were to give us their high 2nd and a 2017 1st in order to get their 5-year QB. But I agree overall that there is too much risk in trading back and rewarding Arizona by doing so.

I like the idea of trading back in the 2nd, but only for good value, because again, you're losing a lot of value in the player.

And please, for all that's good in this world, don't draft Le'Raven Clark! That guy is a disaster that would get Russell Wilson killed!

I didn't see a motivationally challenged OL in Shon Coleman Kip. If he wasn't motivated to play football after beating cancer after all. To me he looks like a guy who plays with a real edge, who loves to hammer a LB at the second level and he's chirpy. Perfect attitude IMO.

I can't be sure if my opinion of Coleman is ruined or not.

I personally think he's one of the best OTs in the class. I'd put it at Tunsil, Conklin and Coleman in that order.

Coleman doesn't seem to have much quit in him at all. I see a guy who is continually looking to hit someone, even on plays away from his side.

I also see a guy who Auburn shifts around from right and left to the play side. He shows equal versatility left or right.

I can't speak to the medical concerns. Just not qualified to do that, nor do I have visibility to that. Looking at him on tape, he's a wonderful prospect that I think plays like a Cable OL should play.

The acceptable talent level at OT expected to be in the 17-31 range is really abnormally good. Probably the best it's been since 2008 (Otah, Baker, Brown). And before that you have to go back to 1999 (Luke Petitgout, L.J. Shelton, Aaron Gibson, Chris Terry and Jon Jansen).

This kind of quality depth at OT doesn't happen very often. Seattle kind of expects to be picking in the 20s+ every year. So if you're wanting to infuse good rookie talent at OT, this is definitely the year to do that.

I would be highly surprised if Seattle doesn't go OT and sticks with their position or possibly moves up. About the only player I could see a move up for would be Conklin. If he made it past Indy at 18, I could see it.

But if they don't, there are going to be options that are barely less attractive. It's not often you get so many good OT candidates who could fall abnormally due to positional need in the first round.

kearly":1h3xbakq said:

EverydayImRusselin":1h3xbakq said:

It all depends on FA. If Okung walks our tackle depth is rough. Gilliam Bailey Britt Poole?? Not very inspiring.

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There are other options. Eugene Monroe is expected to be released, for example. Joe Thomas was rumored to be on the trade block. Maybe Okung stays (unlikely, but possible).

Even if Seattle really is desperate for a tackle come draft day, that doesn't excuse making a desperate pick. That's the kind of process that got us in this situation to begin with.

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I say let Okung walk...he'll be too expensive. Maybe re-sign Sweezy, but only if he's REALLY cheap. Then look at cut players first and then FA's after June 1 so they don't cost us any 2017 Compensatory Picks. Sign one or more of Kelvin Beachum, Jahri Evans and Mitchell Schwartz in Free Agency on the cheap. Let Gilliam start at LT or RT. Glow at RG. Use TWO draft picks for O-Line in rounds 3-5, preferably a Center and a OT/OG.

Let Mebane walk...too old and no longer a good value. Re-sign Rubin, but only if it's on the cheap. Sign Jaye Howard and/or Derrick Shelby but only at the right price. Use TWO draft picks...one for interior rush type DT and one for run stuffer.

With the 5 remaining picks, draft LB/DE, SS, CB, RB, WR. Maybe Vernon Adams for backup QB if he's available late.

kearly":2689r2mq said:

When Seattle traded their 1st round pick for Harvin in 2013, there were some really nice players being projected for the late 1st, including DeAndre Hopkins. When Seattle traded down for Paul Richardson the next year, they passed on Joel Bitonio to do it. And while I think the trade down for Irvin was worth it, they passed on Fletcher Cox to do so.

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Of course the flip side of this is that they also passed on Cordarelle in 2013 and Kouandjio in 2014. You could make the same criticisms about teams trading up or staying put if you just look at hits after your pick. E.g. the Fletcher Cox pick was worth more than Wilson/Wagner combined that year according to the traditional chart.

In my view the argument for trading down is mostly about respecting the uncertainty in the process. If you know for a fact that Ogbah is going to be a stud then it makes sense to take him, but it's more realistic to look at his production as a probability distribution. Better prospects have distributions with a higher mean but there's still a huge amount of overlap given that UDFAs can end up superior to #1 overall picks. That's why it's easy to end up with higher expected overall returns by adding smaller distributions together (trading down).

The argument against trading down is roster space. The Seahawks wallet only has room for a certain amount of lottery tickets and it takes effort to check whether lottery tickets are winners in the first place. The overall roster strategy needs to be cohesive as the draft strategy and FA strategy need to link up. Strict BPA trade down theory crafting falls apart when you spend your first three picks on DTs due to the depth there after you had already resigned Rubin and Mebane.