Seahawks trading back in round 1

OlyHawkFan

New member
Joined
May 5, 2014
Messages
86
Reaction score
0
Generally speaking, I'm for trading back. However, it seems like the we don't get good value.

Most people seem to think we can trade our 1st for a 2nd and 3rd.
Last time we traded our 1st to the Viking who took QB Bridgewater. I got a 2nd and a 4th.

That is all I see us getting again.
 

jammerhawk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 5, 2007
Messages
10,177
Reaction score
1,781
That was pick #32 and it seemed as if the team didn't see player value there so they traded the pick for what they could get.
 

Attyla the Hawk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 11, 2013
Messages
2,559
Reaction score
47
I wouldn't concern yourself too much about stock value.

I think it's in general true that Seattle doesn't win their trades based on draft stock. Other teams seem to get better deals for similar trades.

But I would stress, that thinking is really made in a vacuum. As if the draft pick position is the end and ultimate goal.

Seattle doesn't see it that way and really neither should anyone else. Seattle sees these picks as it relates to the players they want. Not the picks in and of themselves. A pick ultimately doesn't have the value. It's the player you get from it.

Seattle makes these deals based on the players they want and where they think they can get them. And in that regard, that's the most sane way to look at it. Trades are basically the tool to get specific players.

So if we don't win the trades on draft stock value, then why make them? Because there are other benefits that we get by going this route. We aren't privy to the trade conversations -- both the ones made and the ones that fall apart, but it makes sense that Seattle is known as an easy trade partner. We move back a lot. More than most teams. And I expect that's because PCJS have a good relationship with other GMs who can expect to get a more than fair deal when the call from the 425 comes in. We enjoy a high degree of fluidity -- probably more so than other teams.

Recall, that there was a long conversation about trading back from 32 leading to that trade. At the time, it was almost deemed impossible to move from there. Historically those tail end of R1 trades almost NEVER happen. Yet Seattle has been able to do that twice in two years. I don't think those trades get made by any other team. Certainly not in back to back years.

Seattle also tends to like to move in short bursts. Move and reassess. We traded that Bridgewater pick. Then we reassessed and traded a second time. Those short moves back don't result in big value typically.
 

titan3131

Active member
Joined
Mar 13, 2013
Messages
1,592
Reaction score
0
If we can do a similar trade to the vikings trade that would be fantastic.

A high 4th to start day 3 gives us alot of flexibility.

Or if we snag a 3rd, having 5 picks in the top 100 is great.
 

ivotuk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 3, 2007
Messages
23,077
Reaction score
1,776
Location
North Pole, Alaska
The thing that upsets me is a 1st round pick is extra valuable because of the 5th year option. They are going to get Bridgewater a 5th year on the cheap.

John has built a reputation of being an easy mark, so it's going to be hard for him to get good value out of trades.

I will be absolutely miffed if a good player is at 26 and we practically give away the pick for pocket change.
 

TeamoftheCentury

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 19, 2012
Messages
2,149
Reaction score
160
Location
Orlando, FL
Attyla the Hawk":1h6opdw3 said:
I wouldn't concern yourself too much about stock value.

I think it's in general true that Seattle doesn't win their trades based on draft stock. Other teams seem to get better deals for similar trades.

But I would stress, that thinking is really made in a vacuum. As if the draft pick position is the end and ultimate goal.

Seattle doesn't see it that way and really neither should anyone else. Seattle sees these picks as it relates to the players they want. Not the picks in and of themselves. A pick ultimately doesn't have the value. It's the player you get from it.

Seattle makes these deals based on the players they want and where they think they can get them. And in that regard, that's the most sane way to look at it. Trades are basically the tool to get specific players.

So if we don't win the trades on draft stock value, then why make them? Because there are other benefits that we get by going this route. We aren't privy to the trade conversations -- both the ones made and the ones that fall apart, but it makes sense that Seattle is known as an easy trade partner. We move back a lot. More than most teams. And I expect that's because PCJS have a good relationship with other GMs who can expect to get a more than fair deal when the call from the 425 comes in. We enjoy a high degree of fluidity -- probably more so than other teams.

Recall, that there was a long conversation about trading back from 32 leading to that trade. At the time, it was almost deemed impossible to move from there. Historically those tail end of R1 trades almost NEVER happen. Yet Seattle has been able to do that twice in two years. I don't think those trades get made by any other team. Certainly not in back to back years.

Seattle also tends to like to move in short bursts. Move and reassess. We traded that Bridgewater pick. Then we reassessed and traded a second time. Those short moves back don't result in big value typically.
In addition to all this, didn't JS tell the press that there were other (possibly better) offers, but they like trading with Minnesota? He did say something like that in the presser. I'm too lazy to look it up right now. Not sure if it's anywhere but in the presser. He said they have a great relationship with the Vikings.
 

kearly

New member
Joined
Mar 6, 2007
Messages
15,975
Reaction score
0
I was against it at first, but since the combine pretty much all of the targets I'd hoped to see at #26 have solidified themselves as mid-1st rounders. As things stand today, the best players by traditional "BPA" at the pick will be guys like Ifedi and Bullard, and I don't see much difference between those guys and some of the options at #31 or #36.

If a trade down in round 1 made Seattle feel comfortable with trading up in round 2, then I'd be all for it.
 

McGruff

New member
Joined
Mar 2, 2007
Messages
5,260
Reaction score
0
Location
Elma, WA
kearly":14eq7sn0 said:
I was against it at first, but since the combine pretty much all of the targets I'd hoped to see at #26 have solidified themselves as mid-1st rounders. As things stand today, the best players by traditional "BPA" at the pick will be guys like Ifedi and Bullard, and I don't see much difference between those guys and some of the options at #31 or #36.

If a trade down in round 1 made Seattle feel comfortable with trading up in round 2, then I'd be all for it.

I would agree, and further, I don't see a lot of player worth the price of trading up.

Which probably hurts us for trading down as well.

This is a historically weak draft class, especially at the the top.
 

Attyla the Hawk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 11, 2013
Messages
2,559
Reaction score
47
ivotuk":e97sqvzo said:
The thing that upsets me is a 1st round pick is extra valuable because of the 5th year option. They are going to get Bridgewater a 5th year on the cheap.

It's not really 'on the cheap'. That price tag for the 5th year is generally quite expensive. In the case of Irvin -- less so. But if used on Carpenter last year, we'd have been paying him about 2m more than what he got.

The 5th year option is typically a very expensive guaranteed option. With an inflexible cap value. Seattle would and has avoided that prospect by extending players and having more flexibility by spreading the cost over multiple years as well as managing dead money up front.

However, I do think I've changed my stance on this one. The case of Chandler Jones has moved me. Belichick exercised the 5th year option and then traded him away. And I would expect that if Seattle had done the same, they could have come away with a 2016 3rd round pick pretty easily. Resigning decent 5th year players with the intent to trade for a draft pick in the same year is much more preferable than letting them go and getting a comp pick a year from now.

Unless that 1st round pick was garbage (in which case you don't exercise the option) -- then taking the chance of cap inflexibility is ok if you're doing so in an attempt to rent a player to another team for a draft pick. That's better business.

Irvin is going to return something akin to a 135th overall pick one year down the road. When even if we traded him for basically a song -- we could have gotten something in the 110 to 120th this year.

I believe Belichick is the best in the business. The absolute best at plowing existing players under for draft picks. There is a lot to learn from him. In particular:

1. All multi year deals needs to have a 'team option' in the last year.
2. All 1st round picks of any worth should have their 5th year options extended.

Seattle makes contracts similar to the Pats. We front load the guarantees, and have a final year that is generally never going to get paid. Or in some cases -- the base is really low.

But then look at the results. We end up with good players who end up holding out because they are 'underpaid'. Bennett, Avril and Chancellor are all examples of this kind of contract. The end result is the team sometimes doesn't gets the value of that lower base final year. Whether the player holds out. Or complains loudly. Or it becomes an issue in the locker room. Or they just don't bring forth the effort. There are any number of costs to that kind of contract that could arise.

Changing that 'not going to happen' year into a team option means when you decline the option -- you aren't cutting the player. You get a comp pick for a guy who you'd have expected to cut anyway.

It's incredibly smart. I would make every contract that way if I could manage it. Elway just did the same thing with Okung. They'll undoubtedly get a much better comp pick for Okung after this year when they decline his remaining 4 option years than we did by just letting him hit the market.
 

Willyeye

New member
Joined
Mar 30, 2015
Messages
446
Reaction score
0
Attyla the Hawk":1j9rk0bm said:
ivotuk":1j9rk0bm said:
The thing that upsets me is a 1st round pick is extra valuable because of the 5th year option. They are going to get Bridgewater a 5th year on the cheap.

It's not really 'on the cheap'. That price tag for the 5th year is generally quite expensive. In the case of Irvin -- less so. But if used on Carpenter last year, we'd have been paying him about 2m more than what he got.

The 5th year option is typically a very expensive guaranteed option. With an inflexible cap value. Seattle would and has avoided that prospect by extending players and having more flexibility by spreading the cost over multiple years as well as managing dead money up front.

However, I do think I've changed my stance on this one. The case of Chandler Jones has moved me. Belichick exercised the 5th year option and then traded him away. And I would expect that if Seattle had done the same, they could have come away with a 2016 3rd round pick pretty easily. Resigning decent 5th year players with the intent to trade for a draft pick in the same year is much more preferable than letting them go and getting a comp pick a year from now.

Unless that 1st round pick was garbage (in which case you don't exercise the option) -- then taking the chance of cap inflexibility is ok if you're doing so in an attempt to rent a player to another team for a draft pick. That's better business.

Irvin is going to return something akin to a 135th overall pick one year down the road. When even if we traded him for basically a song -- we could have gotten something in the 110 to 120th this year.

I believe Belichick is the best in the business. The absolute best at plowing existing players under for draft picks. There is a lot to learn from him. In particular:

1. All multi year deals needs to have a 'team option' in the last year.
2. All 1st round picks of any worth should have their 5th year options extended.

Seattle makes contracts similar to the Pats. We front load the guarantees, and have a final year that is generally never going to get paid. Or in some cases -- the base is really low.

But then look at the results. We end up with good players who end up holding out because they are 'underpaid'. Bennett, Avril and Chancellor are all examples of this kind of contract. The end result is the team sometimes doesn't gets the value of that lower base final year. Whether the player holds out. Or complains loudly. Or it becomes an issue in the locker room. Or they just don't bring forth the effort. There are any number of costs to that kind of contract that could arise.

Changing that 'not going to happen' year into a team option means when you decline the option -- you aren't cutting the player. You get a comp pick for a guy who you'd have expected to cut anyway.

It's incredibly smart. I would make every contract that way if I could manage it. Elway just did the same thing with Okung. They'll undoubtedly get a much better comp pick for Okung after this year when they decline his remaining 4 option years than we did by just letting him hit the market.

WOW!!! This is incredibly astute. I wish you could get a direct line to JS and explain this to him. This makes so much more sense than just throwing away our value on guys like Irvin and Okung.
 

jammerhawk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 5, 2007
Messages
10,177
Reaction score
1,781
Isn't declining the option exactly what the Hawks just did with Irvin?

I'm quite sure the team gets the concept. Though the option process may find itself more popular going forward with comp picks becoming tradeable.
 

Attyla the Hawk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 11, 2013
Messages
2,559
Reaction score
47
jammerhawk":2hmbj9e8 said:
Isn't declining the option exactly what the Hawks just did with Irvin?

I'm quite sure the team gets the concept. Though the option process may find itself more popular going forward with comp picks becoming tradeable.

This is true. But the 5th year option on young first round talents is almost always lower than the 'balloon payment' last year of a UFA contract. Generally that balloon year is for a guy 28-29 years of age. So health/age for a 5th year pro is generally more attractive in trade.

Look at it from the other end of the trade scenario. They're getting a younger guy at often times the lower end of market value. Also worth noting that if you trade for a rent a year player like that -- if you can't resign him then you'll recoup a comp pick yourself when he signs elsewhere for the UFA deal.

Taking the Chandler Jones deal as an example. Jones is going to make about 2m less than Irvin in 2016. That has value for Arizona. The cards parted with a R2 pick this year. And if they let him go next year, they'll get likely a R3 comp in 2018. For NE, they get the pick two years earlier (also higher but let's leave the return out of the equation). The reality is, even if we had traded Irvin for less -- say an R4 pick in 2016 -- that would have been better than an R4 comp in 2017.

Seattle already had made up their minds they weren't resigning Irvin. Plowing him under for a better pick sooner as NE did is better from a draft scenario. I'm not sure how that kind of treatment would go over in the locker room. Doesn't seem to have affected NE either this year or when they operated similarly with Richard Seymour some years ago.

I don't know if this will affect how teams deal with R1 picks that internally they aren't expecting to resign. Whether they'll roll the dice and exercise the option for the purposes of making a pre draft deal. It bears watching for sure.

Consider this: Seattle hasn't resigned their OL pretty much without fail unless it's for a modest replacement level deal. If they draft an OT in the first this year, and that player pans out as an R1 pick -- we're virtually assured that we won't be resigning him beyond his rookie deal. So do we ante up on that 5th year option, with the intent on trading him away in the 5th year (since we're also not likely to actually want to pay that 5th year option price?). Good OTs that are young -- those are attractive. Probably worth even a late 1st to mid 2nd round pick even on a rental.
 

jammerhawk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 5, 2007
Messages
10,177
Reaction score
1,781
Isn't that a decision (pick up the option and trade, rather than option up and renew) that really depends upon the draft market and the player market plus cap availability at the time it's done?

There are advantages to doing both dependent upon the situation.
 

Basis4day

Active member
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
5,924
Reaction score
0
I love watching the draft, so the selfish (And Illogical) part of me hopes they remain in Rd 1 just so i have a pick to watch youtube clips of Thurs Night..
 

Attyla the Hawk

Well-known member
Joined
Mar 11, 2013
Messages
2,559
Reaction score
47
jammerhawk":elwyj19d said:
Isn't that a decision (pick up the option and trade, rather than option up and renew) that really depends upon the draft market and the player market plus cap availability at the time it's done?

Not for the 5th year option. Those have to be picked up right after the draft. The deadline to exercise Irvin's option was May 5th of last year.

You don't have the luxury of surveying the landscape in that regard.
 

TeamoftheCentury

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 19, 2012
Messages
2,149
Reaction score
160
Location
Orlando, FL
Basis4day":3p4746ax said:
I love watching the draft, so the selfish (And Illogical) part of me hopes they remain in Rd 1 just so i have a pick to watch youtube clips of Thurs Night..
Yeah, it's a bit deflating. I hear ya. All the excitement of the night... for a trade. Even if that's what is best for the team. But, then it makes the next day more interesting with added pick(s).

Sort of like watching everyone else opening their "big" Christmas present with all the excitement that goes with that... and you got a gift certificate redeemable at a later time.
 

Schuemansky

New member
Joined
Mar 4, 2016
Messages
8
Reaction score
0
I really hope we trade down at least twice. Pick 26 equals 3 3rd round picks and a single digit 4th. So you can compare getting Bullard or Spriggs to getting Judon, Hargrave, Bryant and Dahl.
 

Davidess

New member
Joined
Oct 5, 2015
Messages
176
Reaction score
0
Schuemansky":1igh0uj0 said:
I really hope we trade down at least twice. Pick 26 equals 3 3rd round picks and a single digit 4th. So you can compare getting Bullard or Spriggs to getting Judon, Hargrave, Bryant and Dahl.

If you are referring to the draft chart. that is a very outdated chart and is not often used anymore. Also when you say three 3rd round picks does any 1 team have 3 3rd round picks?
 

Schuemansky

New member
Joined
Mar 4, 2016
Messages
8
Reaction score
0
In order to get the extra three picks you have to trade down twice. First you try to get medium 2nd and 3rd picks. Then you trade down again your medium 2nd for a 3rd and 4th.
I know it's all theoretical. It's just what I love to see.
 

Davidess

New member
Joined
Oct 5, 2015
Messages
176
Reaction score
0
Schuemansky":3ilpwxao said:
In order to get the extra three picks you have to trade down twice. First you try to get medium 2nd and 3rd picks. Then you trade down again your medium 2nd for a 3rd and 4th.
I know it's all theoretical. It's just what I love to see.

Ah gotcha. makes sense now.
I don't see us getting a 3rd by trading our 1 though. a 4th or 5th at best. but yes I do love trading back and getting more picks I just hate the waiting game when it comes to us picking.
 
Top