Cracking the code: Introducing the 'Trench Explosion Formula

Following on from last weeks study on the importance of the broad jump in Seattle -- I decided to take it a step further.

LINK: http://seahawksdraftblog.com/introducin ... ormula-tef

I calculated a formula using information from Tom Cable on his 'ideal' physical profile for an offensive lineman. It includes the vertical, broad and bench press. The results to be fair are very interesting. Not a single O-liner drafted since 2012 has gone below the cumulative ideal.

In the 2016 draft class only SIX O-line players matched or beat Seattle's physical ideal. TWENTY-SIX defensive linemen were deemed explosive when I ran them through the same formula. Talk about that offense/defense athletic discrepancy!

The formula tells us good things about Jason Spriggs and Sheldon Rankins, has some slightly sobering info on Jonathan Bullard and Germain Ifedi and completely takes the piss out of A'Shawn Robinson and Cody Whitehair.

Love your work Rob. Hands down the most in depth draft site I've stumbled upon.

Good stuff Rob. I've been checking your site every day just about. Lots of interesting content.

Thanks guys :thirishdrinkers:

Damn good work man!

Nice job breaking this down and nailing the profile they target. I wonder how these players stack up against who actually succeeds in the NFL over time? It'd be interesting to see how many of the top O-lineman end up fitting into this same physical profile.

You got me hooked dude.

Great work Rob!

I suspect there is something to this that has not been noticed by other draft analysts until now. Good for you!

I wonder however if there aren't other factors that are considered as well? Things like arm length or raw short area quickness that may compensate for a shortfall in the other parameters of the formula. Either that or raw football ability may be factors that may overcome the formula in terms of selection . The evidence however is very strong you nailed it!

Certainly is thought provoking and fun to read, thanks!

Interesting work, Rob. Appreciate it.

One question, though....you did decimalize the broad jump distance right? I mean 9.6' means something a little different than 9' 6".

Rob . . . here are some other names from Pro Days to consider . . . numbers are BP, Vert. Broad and TEF Score

Vi Teofilo OG Arizona State 43 29.5 9.67 3.78
Brian Bobek C Minnesota 36 31 9.17 3.39
Sebastian Johansson OG Marshall 26 32.5 9.42 3.16
Spencer Pulley C Vanderbilt 28 28.5 9.33 3.07

And some players just barely on the outside . . .

Givens Price OG Nebraska 24 32 9.17 2.98
Anthony Fabiano OT Harvard 25 32.5 9 2.97
Germain Ifedi OG Texas A&M 24 32.5 9.08 2.96
Joe Gore OT Clemson 28 27.5 9.08 2.95
Halapoulivaati Vaitai OT TCU 23 29 9.42 2.93
Brandon Shell OT South Carolina 22 30.5 9.33 2.91
Jordan Swindle OT Kentucky 22 29 9.42 2.90

McGruff":2abu2sky said:

Rob . . . here are some other names from Pro Days to consider . . . numbers are BP, Vert. Broad and TEF Score

Vi Teofilo OG Arizona State 43 29.5 9.67 3.78
Brian Bobek C Minnesota 36 31 9.17 3.39
Sebastian Johansson OG Marshall 26 32.5 9.42 3.16
Spencer Pulley C Vanderbilt 28 28.5 9.33 3.07

And some players just barely on the outside . . .

Givens Price OG Nebraska 24 32 9.17 2.98
Anthony Fabiano OT Harvard 25 32.5 9 2.97
Germain Ifedi OG Texas A&M 24 32.5 9.08 2.96
Joe Gore OT Clemson 28 27.5 9.08 2.95
Halapoulivaati Vaitai OT TCU 23 29 9.42 2.93
Brandon Shell OT South Carolina 22 30.5 9.33 2.91
Jordan Swindle OT Kentucky 22 29 9.42 2.90

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Good work Rob, you are killing it this year (like every year). Analytics seem to be becoming more and more prevalent and in particular our fan base has a few guys that have been amazing at this. I'll admit, I have always been a tape guy and have been slow to accepting it. But, it is a great tool. I have started using it mainly to filter and cross reference tape so tape still holds number 1. But, I have to admit it has been rapidly growing on me.

Also, Teofilo is a freak. He seems to be shooting up boards. I have yet to watch any tape on him but am extremely intrigued.

It seems like all the information we look at points emphatically towards Seattle selecting Jason Spriggs at #26.

kearly":3ln52ogm said:

It seems like all the information we look at points emphatically towards Seattle selecting Jason Spriggs at #26.

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I keep thinking that...if he's there. Pair that with Kirwan mocking him to us in his mock (maybe his relationship with Pete is overblown). Would I jump for joy if he were the pick at 26? No, but I would be OK with it I think. Plenty of upside there he just needs to play with more power.

That might be the best Seahawks-specific draft article I've ever read. Thank you.

kearly":155hjer5 said:

It seems like all the information we look at points emphatically towards Seattle selecting Jason Spriggs at #26.

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If he's still there. I can't imagine that teams haven't had their own grading systems like this and are enamored with him. I haven't been overly impressed with Spriggs, though. Sort of indifferent to what I've see of his play. If the Hawks indeed draft him, I hope he's better than I think he will be. I'd probably rather trade back. :thcoffee:

The following validates the reported athleticism. As Madden used to say, "Yeah, but...."
BOTTOM LINE Spriggs has outstanding athleticism, but his play strength and overall recovery ability are major concerns for a position as important as tackle. Spriggs followed up a strong week at the Senior Bowl with a very good showing at the combine and has solidified his standing as an early round tackle amongst evaluators. If he can improve his inside post and prevent counter moves from eating him up, he has a chance to be a solid NFL starter on the left side.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/ ... id=2555197

Yikes! How is this any better than Gilliam?

kearly":1w7vto9r said:

It seems like all the information we look at points emphatically towards Seattle selecting Jason Spriggs at #26.

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With the proviso that it's better to take a Tier 1 DT than to settle for a Tier 2 OT, do you feel that Spriggs squeezes into the Tier 1 level and is worthy of the # 26 pick?

They seriously need to abandon the bench press at the combine. I don't know why they haven't switched to a shot put or some other measure of strength instead of stamina. It would be great to have an exercise where a player is timed on how long it takes them to push 300 lbs of resistance 5 yards. But that would really only apply to linemen.

Erebus":e38do1z0 said:

They seriously need to abandon the bench press at the combine. I don't know why they haven't switched to a shot put or some other measure of strength instead of stamina. It would be great to have an exercise where a player is timed on how long it takes them to push 300 lbs of resistance 5 yards. But that would really only apply to linemen.

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Shot put is a pretty specific technique,

Erebus":3gvh0nhb said:

They seriously need to abandon the bench press at the combine. I don't know why they haven't switched to a shot put or some other measure of strength instead of stamina. It would be great to have an exercise where a player is timed on how long it takes them to push 300 lbs of resistance 5 yards. But that would really only apply to linemen.

Click to expand...

Or maybe have them in a stance, push a bag and measure force generated.

chet380":1mg3lwub said:

kearly":1mg3lwub said:

It seems like all the information we look at points emphatically towards Seattle selecting Jason Spriggs at #26.

Click to expand...

With the proviso that it's better to take a Tier 1 DT than to settle for a Tier 2 OT, do you feel that Spriggs squeezes into the Tier 1 level and is worthy of the # 26 pick?

Click to expand...

I think Spriggs deserves a mid-round grade. I would hate the pick if it happened. I'm just saying that the evidence of him being selected early by Seattle looks increasingly likely.