The draft prospect we should keep a closer eye on at #26

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The more I think about it, the more I think Vernon Butler is a player I think we should keep a very close eye on at #26. Honestly I am a bit surprised by the lack of people connecting him to Seattle around the blogosphere so far.

Here is why I think he is an obvious fit for Seattle.

1. Seattle loves special athletes. Butler's pro-day performance gave him measurables that were just slightly less impressive than Sheldon Rankins. On tape, Butler stands out as a big man with quickness and core strength. He also has long, powerful arms, can convert speed to power, controls blockers, and plays with motor. Butler might not blow us away with his forty time, but he's still a specimen.

2. Seattle tends to be overly intoxicated with 'untapped potential.' Many times in the past, Seattle has passed on good, polished players (Fletcher Cox, Joel Bitonio, etc) for unpolished ones with exciting potential. By this, I mean that Seattle gravitates towards players who's current worth and future worth have the largest discrepancies, even if the present worth seems dubious. Don't get me wrong, I'm not in full man crush mode over Vernon Butler, I think he's pretty flawed and risky. But if you can coach him up, he's got everything he needs to be the next Muhammad Wilkerson.

3. Unlike Bullard, Floyd, and arguably Sheldon Rankins, Butler has the tools and abilities and past performance to play and potentially excel at three different positions on the defensive line. He's played nose tackle, 3 tech, and 5 tech previously in college, and his skillset works well at all three of those positions. This is key to Seattle as they like to move their DL all over the place and mix things up. Jonathan Bullard is an explosive player, but also one who is clearly best suited attacking B-gaps wouldn't provide the same quality of versatility that Butler could. Rankins is pretty diverse too, though I think Rankins would probably struggle at 5 tech as he has a sloppier build and isn't as agile bending around the edge. Rankins is also just 6'1" with average arm length... which is fine at DT, but problematic over at an end spot.

4. While I generally think this DL class is a bit over-rated, I do think that Rankins, Bullard, Floyd, Billings and Butler all play with pretty good motor. They all have a real love for the game and that will appeal more to Seattle than most other teams.

5. Seattle has generally put a substantial emphasis on arm length on the defensive (and offensive) line. Frank Clark has 34 3/8" Arms (btw, huge props to this guy for his powers of prophesy regarding Frank Clark). Greg Scruggs had 36" vines for arms. Jordan Hill's 33 1/2 inch arms were decent for a guy who's only 6'1", much like Sheldon Rankins. Michael Bennett's arms have never been measured but many scouting reports at the time praised his pass rusher length. The shortest arms of any Seahawks drafted DL belong to Jaye Howard who had 33" arms, which is basically average length.

So with that in mind, here are the arm length measurements of Rankins, Bullard, Floyd, Billings and Butler:

Rankins - 33 3/8"
Bullard - 33 5/8"
Floyd - 33 1/8"
Billings - 33"

Butler - 35 1/8"

The arm length of the first four are all various degrees of average. And then you have Vernon Butler with elite arm length, particularly for an interior lineman. His arms are a full inch and a half longer than 2nd place Jonathan Bullard.

There are mixed reports of Butler's draft stock which give it that same quasi-reach feel that Irvin, Britt, Carpenter, and Clark had. There was a recent quote from Walter Football about Butler that is pretty interesting:

Charlie Campbell":4a5aigy8 said:

4/6/16: Butler was a bit of sleeper prospect, but that ended when he showed extremely well at the Senior Bowl. In the pass-rushing one-on-ones, Butler was too fast for the offensive linemen and showed nice strength to bull rush. Sources say that Butler has a ton of talent but doesn't know what he's doing yet. While he has upside, being undefined has some teams grading him as an early second-rounder. I know sources at a couple of playoff teams that are considering Butler for their first-round pick. They also like him off the field and his love for football.

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The bold emphasis is mine. The above quote comes from Charlie Campbell at Walter Football. While there has been reason to mock WF in the past, they have recently teamed up with the incomparable Tony Pauline who is simply the most connected man with the best information come draft season. This has given WF's analysis a degree of legitimacy and should be listened to closely.

Anyway, "playoff teams" who "like him off the field" (valuing intangibles) and his "love for football" (more intangibles speak)... I can't prove that he's talking about Seattle, but consider the "Seahawky" boxes and draft clues that are checked already:

-Good athlete, rare physical qualities
-Massive untapped potential. Tons of room for coaching up.
-Versatile
-Long Arms (longest arms, by far)
-Strong motor / intangibles
-Seattle is a playoff team which ties into the report
-Seattle is famous for valuing intangibles which the reported teams value highly
-It would fit with Seattle's history for drafting players earlier than their perceived value.

There are other options at #26 that can say a few of these things, but Vernon Butler is literally the only DL option who can say ALL of these things. I can't guarantee that Seattle will draft him, but he seems more likely than the rest. At a minimum, he's a guy we should focus on at least as much as Bullard, et al.

Nice breakdown, as usual, Kip!

:th2thumbs:

but... id raaather have billings

reminds me of a more explosive big red though, and that aint too shabby

very nice work.

I saw that the other day, and should have connected the comments with Seattle. I think I'm getting a bit of tunnel vision on these prospects. I think I need to take a break or this draft needs to happen already. Feels like the dog days of draft season.

Vernon is my number two guy, behind only Billings.

Another guy that could be special it's Chris Jones of Mississippi State. There's tape of him just advising the opposing offensive linemen, then there's tape of him being average. I think he just needs to be coached up by Pete.

Attyla the Hawk":4ai5gbao said:

very nice work.

I saw that the other day, and should have connected the comments with Seattle. I think I'm getting a bit of tunnel vision on these prospects. I think I need to take a break or this draft needs to happen already. Feels like the dog days of draft season.

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Ditto.

Excellent post kip. Really enjoying your draft notes this year. Between you and Rob (and all the awesome posters on his blog and in this forum) every other draft site seems shallow and lacking any real perspective.

I would be okay with a guy like Butler or Billings or Bullard in the 1st. It is going to be a real need shortly once Bennett's play drops off.

I've liked Butler for us all along, just not as much as Rankins or Billings due to their ability to finish and potential to be difference making 3 down players with more explosion.

I see Butler as a longer armed Red Bryant with more upside to play multiple spots and 3 downs if he develops his potential. I think Pete's defense and coaching could tap all of his abilities over time but see him as a rotation player the first couple years.

I like him way more than Bullard and wouldn't hate the pick at 26 and I could see alot of teams not passing on his freaky build and upside in the first 40 picks. If we want him we better take him at 26 or with our first choice in a trade back scenario.

penihawk":5qoofvy8 said:

I've liked Butler for us all along, just not as much as Rankins or Billings due to their ability to finish and potential to be difference making 3 down players with more explosion.

I see Butler as a longer armed Red Bryant with more upside to play multiple spots and 3 downs if he develops his potential. I think Pete's defense and coaching could tap all of his abilities over time but see him as a rotation player the first couple years.

I like him way more than Bullard and wouldn't hate the pick at 26 and I could see alot of teams not passing on his freaky build and upside in the first 40 picks. If we want him we better take him at 26 or with our first choice in a trade back scenario.

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On our team, a guy that can be a solid rotational player for a couple of years and grow into being a starter is well worth a #26 pick IMHO.

sutz":umipyyyp said:

penihawk":umipyyyp said:

I've liked Butler for us all along, just not as much as Rankins or Billings due to their ability to finish and potential to be difference making 3 down players with more explosion.

I see Butler as a longer armed Red Bryant with more upside to play multiple spots and 3 downs if he develops his potential. I think Pete's defense and coaching could tap all of his abilities over time but see him as a rotation player the first couple years.

I like him way more than Bullard and wouldn't hate the pick at 26 and I could see alot of teams not passing on his freaky build and upside in the first 40 picks. If we want him we better take him at 26 or with our first choice in a trade back scenario.

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On our team, a guy that can be a solid rotational player for a couple of years and grow into being a starter is well worth a #26 pick IMHO.

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I don't necessarily disagree with you on that but we have many different ways we can go in this draft early. Would a day 1 starter like Ryan Kelly C and a 2nd rd DT like Javon Hargrave with similar type upside and probably rotational play to start be better? That's the part that Pete and John get paid to figure out.

Kearly I always enjoy your posts, but I don't like the guy's tape. It appears to me he has a high motor off the snap which is obviously excellent, but a lot of quit in him after contact. If there are a couple of teammates that have a guy stood up, he doesn't look like he wants any part of helping anyone finish them off.

Now I am probably off base here because I know that most D lineman are shaped different, but he looks like he doesn't carry his weight well. He doesn't look like he is naturally thick to me. He doesn't look farm strong so to speak, he looks like 7-11 hot case strong.

He reminds me of those guys that when people are watching them, they will beat all of their teammates in a set of lines, but 5 minutes later, the guy that glides in dead last because he is tired and bored.

He does look Seahawky, he looks like he needs a lot of motivation though.

He is definitely a guy I could see us having heavy interest in, the ceiling with him is immense. His tape is so, so to me but he flashes rare abilities at times. His lateral quickness for his size jumps off the screen, it is really freaky. His combine was more disappointing to me because of his agility drills....I fully expected him to put up eye popping numbers in those drills and they just weren't good.

Pair his length with his quickness and you have a guy that could develop into an elite player. I would like to see him use his length more, let's guys get into him far too often. Everything just points to a ton of untapped potential and a guy that if coached up properly could be a force. I have him as a 2nd Rd guy right not (top of 2), but is a pick I could get excited about in round 1.

@ Kearly --

" But if you can coach him up, he's got everything he needs to be the next Muhammad Wilkerson."

SOLD!!

I agree with both Kearly and the above poster who had concerns about his effort. After the play goes by him he just stops and stands. I don't see the kind of pursuit down field and backside that I like to see.

Like Ivotuk,

Billings is 1a and Butler is 1b for me.

Both are 21 years old, will be 22 by the time the season starts. With that 5th year option, youd get 2 players at pretty much 22-27 years old.

With Sealver Siliga you have a potentially decent stopgap starter playing for a contract.

Although I feel Billings is good enough to be an immediate starter.

Both these rookie DTs can be brought in as a reserve in the rotation and spend a year being developed and coached up by a Dan Quinn desciple in Travis Johnson and assistant DLine coach Dwaine Board.

Both players will also be surrounded by a strong core of established leadership able to mentor these guys up in Rubin, Bennett, Avril, Clemons, guys who dont bullshit around in terms of being All In on the field. You pretty much can add the LBers and LOB as players who will hold you accountable as well as help coach you up into the Seahawks way.

Hill and Siliga, are more or less entering thier veteranship season and both have played for highly successful football teams with Championship pedigrees, so they too can provide some degree of Professionalism for young DTs.

My expectation is getting a DT that will start and be dominant but more so one that can be molded and coached up and able to be productive in a reduced role. A DT that can learn and develop mentally and physically over the course of a season in the class room and weightroom . Then in 2017, have that guy come in and be ready to fully take over a starting role on this defense.

Also what I like about both these players if you can develop them as pass-rushers as they both have physically attributes to be successful. These guys in 1-2 years down the road could be 3 down DTs.

For me Butler is easily a 1st round prospect. His combination of size, length, and athleticism is outstanding.


The Seahawks had dinner with Butler, so the Seahawks have legit interest in the big man...
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...m-jets-lions-put-vernon-butler-though-workout

He's been one of the top DT's in my notes since I got more familiar with him in a post season game. I was thinking more high 2nd round, though. But, he wouldn't be a bad pick at all in that late 1st - early 2nd round range. Every player has their drawbacks.

A few thoughts here....

Firstly -- Butler certainly improved his stock at his pro-day. But when I put his updated numbers through the TEF formula he scored a 3.13. That's not bad -- but it's a different world away from Sheldon Rankins' #2 overall 3.52. Not only that, Butler actually tested weaker in TEF than Bullard (3.18), Billings (3.23), Hargrave (3.33), Blair III (3.35) and many others. His score relative to the rest of D-linemen in the draft was bottom half.

Secondly -- I think he could have some use in Seattle but he isn't a pass rusher. Mo Wilkerson, who he gets compared to, was a terrific pass rusher in college. Butler played a bevy of weak opponents in college and was never a pass rusher. That, IMO, limits his stock as a draft prospect. Now maybe they believe they can get that out of him -- but it's a question mark. And I can't see the Seahawks drafting a non-pass rushing D-liner in round one.

theENGLISHseahawk":civ7sves said:

Secondly -- I think he could have some use in Seattle but he isn't a pass rusher. Mo Wilkerson, who he gets compared to, was a terrific pass rusher in college. Butler played a bevy of weak opponents in college and was never a pass rusher. That, IMO, limits his stock as a draft prospect. Now maybe they believe they can get that out of him -- but it's a question mark. And I can't see the Seahawks drafting a non-pass rushing D-liner in round one.

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He's not? There's different types of pass rushers. From what I saw of him, I think he could be disruptive and it's not a stretch to anticipate he will get better and better. He also creates openings for teammates.

Able to eat up double teams and keep his linebackers clean when asked to. Excellent athleticism. Can make plays all along the line of scrimmage. If blocker doesn’t finish, Butler will work himself back into the play. Able to coordinate hands and feet smoothly and has change of direction and closing burst to become a dominant pass rusher from inside. Can slide from gap to gap as a pass rusher and is a perfect fit for twist-­based defense. Generally attacks gaps with forward lean and ability to corner the edge when he has his man beat. Can stutter-­step into pass rush to disrupt offensive lineman’s timing or generate a speed-­to-­power bull rush that can severely dent a pocket. Gives consistent effort and plays like a lead dog looking to eat.

BOTTOM LINE Athletic interior lineman with long arms and outstanding athleticism that allows him to work on offensive linemen with a combination of power and quickness. Butler has a raw but diverse skillset as a pass rusher that should excite NFL evaluators who see the potential of what he can be with more coaching and experience. With his effort and defensive ball awareness, his ceiling appears to be high with a chance to become a high-­level starter for an odd or even front defense.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/ ... id=2555243

theENGLISHseahawk":2g3amgd1 said:

A few thoughts here....

Firstly -- Butler certainly improved his stock at his pro-day. But when I put his updated numbers through the TEF formula he scored a 3.13. That's not bad -- but it's a different world away from Sheldon Rankins' #2 overall 3.52. Not only that, Butler actually tested weaker in TEF than Bullard (3.18), Billings (3.23), Hargrave (3.33), Blair III (3.35) and many others. His score relative to the rest of D-linemen in the draft was bottom half.

Secondly -- I think he could have some use in Seattle but he isn't a pass rusher. Mo Wilkerson, who he gets compared to, was a terrific pass rusher in college. Butler played a bevy of weak opponents in college and was never a pass rusher. That, IMO, limits his stock as a draft prospect. Now maybe they believe they can get that out of him -- but it's a question mark. And I can't see the Seahawks drafting a non-pass rushing D-liner in round one.

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I'm all for looking at testing numbers, but I also take into account the player's height, weight, and arm length. Yes, Bullard and Blair have a better TEF, but Butler is 40 lbs heavier than both Bullard and Blair. So, for me, I would expect the much lighter d-lineman to test better at the combine. Then there is Billings who has a very good TEF, but for me that is very misleading. Watching his game tape he looks like a linear player, he struggles to change direction. Billing's very poor 3-cone and short shuttle solidified what I saw on tape. Hargrave has a much better TEF than Butler, but again Butler is 15 lbs heavier than Hargrave.

- Butler is heavier, in some cases by as much as 40 lbs, than the players you mentioned.
- Butler has the longest arms. 3 1/2 inches longer than Hargrave.
- Butler's agility and balance flashes is evident on tape.

For me, Butler is the Germain Ifedi of DT's.


Butler has unique size and athleticism that the Seahawks like in their players. He has all the tools to be a disruptive Pro Bowl level DT. He is not a finished product, if he were he would be a top-10 prospect.