Thoughts on McShay's latest mock for Seattle?

http://www.seahawks.com/news/2016/04/12/mock-draft-tracker-defensive-tackle-popular-pick-seahawks

McShay's 3 round mock for the Hawks

Round 1 (26): Andrew Billings, DT, Baylor
Round 2 (56): Derrick Henry, RB, Alabama
Round 3 (90): Le'Raven Clark, OT, Texas Tech
Round 3 (97): Briean Boddy-Calhoun, CB, Minnesota

Let me start off by saying this scenario is doubtful. I'm thinking Dallas would take Henry in the 2nd and Billings could be long gone by #26. If it does happen, I'd be thrillllllled... its no secret I'm in love with both Billings and Henry. Most would complain that we need to address the Oline in the first 2 rounds, which I would agree with unless we get some real studs as McShay projected. Le'Raven Clark isn't a bad consolation prize in the third, either.

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I like Billings and while maybe not the best scenario at 26 he would still be a solid selection.

The rest of the mock is absolute garbage though. Henry is overrated and doesn't fit our style at all. Le'Raven Clark is a project with nice measurables but horrible level of play at the position Pete and John like the most on our O-line already with the Gilliam/Sowell competition. Taking ANY CB as early as the third is a waste this year. We're so deep there now that any cb is going to struggle to even make the roster.

Overall, I really like it. Billings is a guy that can fill in Mebanes old role and be able to 2 gap. But he also does a nice job shooting gaps in the run game and has more ability to rush the passer.

I am not big on taking Henry in the 1st, but if he is there in the 2nd (I highly doubt he will be) I would expect that to be the pick. I get the question marks on him, but I keep coming back to a few things with him. One, he gets stronger as the game goes on and really wears down a defense. He might not break as many tackles as you would think (although he is not Turbin he does break plenty of arm tackles), but it wears the defense down having to tackle his 245 lb ass all game long and it shows come 4th quarter. Pete I believe loves the idea of wearing down defenses and just taking the life out of them in the 4th quarter. Two, while not the most agile back he does have great vision and huge big play ability. He is a guy that can feel out his blocking and actually does a nice job hitting cutbacks. I think it would be a nice 2nd RD pick.

Le'Raven Clark is definitely a project from a technique standpoint, but he has 1st RD traits and pro bowl type of potential if he takes to coaching well. I would hate to take him in the 1st (there are plenty who think he doesn't fall out of the 1st because of his potential) but in the 3rd it would be hard to find a higher upside pick.

Haven't watched any tape on Boddy-Calhoun yet, but there are a number of corners I like in that RD 5-7 range to make me not like this pick very much.

Would like the Billings and Clark picks .. the Boddy-Calhoun pick would not make any sense at all for us given Lane and Burley's presence on the roster. We need an outside corner to start opposite Sherm, not a 5-9 nickel CB. I would much rather go with the guys already on the roster and let one of those guys win the job.

And well.. I've already let my feelings about Derrick Henry very well known. My least favorite player in the draft being tied to Seattle.

I'd be fine with this outside of Boddy-Calhoun. We have two slot corners who will almost certainly make the roster and that kid is far too small to play outside in this defense.

endzorn":wi05ajjq said:

I'd be fine with this outside of Boddy-Calhoun. We have two slot corners who will almost certainly make the roster and that kid is far too small to play outside in this defense.

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+1

This does pretty much nothing for our biggest need..... offensive line. I mean that literally.

Also, I don't think a 1tech DT is what we need more than a penetrating 3tech right now.

Just saying......

Boddy-Calhoun is a terrible projection. Poor testing athlete with sub 32 arms. Almost guarantee he's not on our board.

Overall, I think the mock is pretty awful. Seems like it's one of those early January mocks with no insight on how the prospects tested. Probably taken straight from his own big board without any nod to how teams see prospects.

I like Billings personally. But I can see why he'd not project well for us. We want pass rush early on. I think Billings can do that to a lesser degree. But a lot of other prospects who are better at that. Looks like he saw who we lost and just assumes we need to reload. Mebane's talents don't require a R1 pick to reload at that.

TeamoftheCentury":3jiz5aic said:

endzorn":3jiz5aic said:

I'd be fine with this outside of Boddy-Calhoun. We have two slot corners who will almost certainly make the roster and that kid is far too small to play outside in this defense.

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+1

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+2. I don't like the CB pick, so at that point I had to "dislike" the mock, but only because it was a 3rd rounder. That's too high to throw away a pick, yet if it was a 4th or 5th rounder I'm not too worried about it. I think Billings is a good fit here, and from his tape, if we rotated him, he could actually get some pass rush if he was well rested. I read an article (can't find it now) that says some coaches are saying La'Raven Clark is going to go a lot higher than people think he will. His issues are coachable and it's endemic of anyone coming from that spread offense, but his physical upside is much too high to let him fall for too long.

Not too high on Henry in the 2nd either. I think he's a bad fit for our offense. We need a guy that hits the hole faster than he does with our line. Also not too high on any RB in the 2nd when there's great value to be had in the 3rd and 4th, with better athletes.

Hawks46":oz6xfes3 said:

TeamoftheCentury":oz6xfes3 said:

endzorn":oz6xfes3 said:

I'd be fine with this outside of Boddy-Calhoun. We have two slot corners who will almost certainly make the roster and that kid is far too small to play outside in this defense.

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+1

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+2. I don't like the CB pick, so at that point I had to "dislike" the mock, but only because it was a 3rd rounder. That's too high to throw away a pick, yet if it was a 4th or 5th rounder I'm not too worried about it. I think Billings is a good fit here, and from his tape, if we rotated him, he could actually get some pass rush if he was well rested. I read an article (can't find it now) that says some coaches are saying La'Raven Clark is going to go a lot higher than people think he will. His issues are coachable and it's endemic of anyone coming from that spread offense, but his physical upside is much too high to let him fall for too long.

Not too high on Henry in the 2nd either. I think he's a bad fit for our offense. We need a guy that hits the hole faster than he does with our line. Also not too high on any RB in the 2nd when there's great value to be had in the 3rd and 4th, with better athletes.

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JMO but when I watch Henry I see a guy who is decisive and explodes at the LOS.

And who are these better athletes?

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/rb/

At 240 pounds, Henry is in the top 5, with the only guys above him being unproven small conference players with glaring weaknesses.

McGruff":18cz51wp said:

Hawks46":18cz51wp said:

TeamoftheCentury":18cz51wp said:

endzorn":18cz51wp said:

I'd be fine with this outside of Boddy-Calhoun. We have two slot corners who will almost certainly make the roster and that kid is far too small to play outside in this defense.

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+1

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+2. I don't like the CB pick, so at that point I had to "dislike" the mock, but only because it was a 3rd rounder. That's too high to throw away a pick, yet if it was a 4th or 5th rounder I'm not too worried about it. I think Billings is a good fit here, and from his tape, if we rotated him, he could actually get some pass rush if he was well rested. I read an article (can't find it now) that says some coaches are saying La'Raven Clark is going to go a lot higher than people think he will. His issues are coachable and it's endemic of anyone coming from that spread offense, but his physical upside is much too high to let him fall for too long.

Not too high on Henry in the 2nd either. I think he's a bad fit for our offense. We need a guy that hits the hole faster than he does with our line. Also not too high on any RB in the 2nd when there's great value to be had in the 3rd and 4th, with better athletes.

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JMO but when I watch Henry I see a guy who is decisive and explodes at the LOS.

And who are these better athletes?

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/rb/

At 240 pounds, Henry is in the top 5, with the only guys above him being unproven small conference players with glaring weaknesses.

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I think part of the "better athlete" comment is based on system that best suits them. With that in mind guys like Dixon or Ervin would be a better fit in Seattle right now (with our line) than Henry. Henry needs to go to Dallas or someone with a line that will give him the time he needs to get up to full speed where he does the most damage.

I'm guessing that Butler, Floyd, Bullard, Spriggs, and Ifedi are all higher on Seattle's board than Billings. Billings' arm length is the low end of average and he's not really much of an overall athlete. He also has struggles against the run which might make him a situational DT his first couple years. Billings will appeal as a pass rusher but I think Seattle will be bothered by his shortcomings. I wouldn't expect Seattle to take Billings barring a trade down scenario.

Derrick Henry is a possibility at #56, but I think he'll be gone by then. It wouldn't surprise me if a team like Carolina traded up in round 2 to get him.

I think Seattle would sprint to the podium for Clark at #56, so naturally they'd be thrilled to get him at #90. I think Clark is solidly entrenched as a 2nd round pick.

Overall this is a much better mock than most others, including Kiper, give Seattle. Mel Kiper gave Seattle Eli Apple, a pick that is silly for Seattle on multiple levels. I think Kiper has given up on figuring out the Seahawks and just uses their draft slots as filler during his mocks.

McGruff":2ww8ym7n said:

JMO but when I watch Henry I see a guy who is decisive and explodes at the LOS.

And who are these better athletes?

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/rb/

At 240 pounds, Henry is in the top 5, with the only guys above him being unproven small conference players with glaring weaknesses.

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The prevailing notion among evaluators is that Derrick Henry lacks explosiveness and agility. Five anonymous NFL executives were asked to make a player comparison for Derrick Henry. Three of them said Brandon Jacobs, one of them said Eddie Lacy, and the remaining GM said LaGarrette Blount. An NFC RB coach compared him to Marion Butts. All physically impressive runners, but none them are agile or explosive. Former NFL RB Merrill Hoge added to this line of thinking by directly stating that Henry lacks the "spontaneous agility" to succeed in every scheme in the NFL.

I don't always agree with NFL consensus but in this case I do. While Henry possesses a freakish vert and broad jump for a person his size, the end result of all that leg power is only a 1.61 ten yard split. To put that number in comparison:

Christine Michael: 1.49
Marshawn Lynch : 1.53
Robert Turbin: 1.57
Michael Robinson: 1.61
Spencer Ware: 1.65

Henry's 10 yard split is in the same range as fullbacks and sluggish RBs.

This shows on tape too. He can reach scary high speeds but is only worth using if the team around him is skilled enough to make sure he never touches anything. Every time I see Henry get bottled up or someone grabs his ankle for a second behind the LOS, it seems like he is almost always swarmed over and tackled right after. His top speed is excellent, but he has to be unfettered to reach it. If he were a Mario Kart character, he'd be Bowser.

For the right team, he's a great pick. However, I tend to think Seattle is the perfectly wrong team barring big changes in the OL. I don't think Seattle is lying about their interest in Henry, but I think this is one of those cases where they look at his physical size and traits and can't help but drool, even if his actual fit in the offense is dubious.

I really feel like I must be going crazy when everyone I respect hates the prospect I love, and has such ly wildly different perceptions. Usually that means I must be wrong, but every time I watch someone play against Alabama, I come away stunned by how great Henry is. That's not my intent, it just keeps happening.

McGruff":ujgt64pk said:

I really feel like I must be going crazy when everyone I respect hates the prospect I love, and has such ly wildly different perceptions. Usually that means I must be wrong, but every time I watch someone play against Alabama, I come away stunned by how great Henry is. That's not my intent, it just keeps happening.

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I loved Henry at Alabama too. He caught my eye immediately.

Henry's top speed is definitely impressive. Here are the 40 times when you factor out the initial 10 yards:

Robert Turbin 2.85
Derrick Henry 2.93
Marshawn Lynch 2.93
Christine Michael 2.94

(I left Thomas Rawls off the list since he wasn't healthy when he ran)

I just think that for Seattle, with all the chaos of Tom Cable's running system, you need a back who is very quick in the first 10 yards and also has excellent balance and agility. Those are the weak areas of Henry's game.

I do think he could be good in the NFL. He just needs to find the NFL's version of Alabama's OL and system. If he goes to a team similar to the 2014 Cowboys that opens up big holes, Henry would be a star.

Billings is a guy you can plug and play at the 1T for probably the next five to ten years and be above average at that position. I'd take Billings over Bullard we really don't need a 3T not in the first and Billings is the more physical presence . I really hope they don't pass on Billings for Ifedi who I like but may or may not be a long term answer on that O-line. Billings is one of the best players in the First round imo as far as a player you can count on to come in and have an immediate impact at his position. I'd much rather take Sheldon Rankins than Bullard if they want a more versatile DT .

Northwest Seahawk":3i4j9653 said:

Billings is a guy you can plug and play at the 1T for probably the next five to ten years and be above average at that position. I'd take Billings over Bullard we really don't need a 3T not in the first and Billings is the more physical presence . I really hope they don't pass on Billings for Ifedi who I like but may or may not be a long term answer on that O-line. Billings is one of the best players in the First round imo as far as a player you can count on to come in and have an immediate impact at his position. I'd much rather take Floyd than Bullard if they want a more versatile DT .

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Floyd isn't a DT and never will be.

The thing with a player like Billings is that run stuffing DT'S are pretty easy to find. You can get them up and down the draft and for cheap in free agency every year. I don't think there is a great deal of difference in production between Billings and, say, DJ Reader from Clemson or Austin Johnson from Penn State or Hassan Ridgeway from Texas.

But pass rushing DT'S are a rare commodity, and you accept the risk that comes with trying to get one. If you can get 5 to 7 sacks and timely pressure for 4 to 5 years from a rookie contract n a DT, you take it when you can get it, because that is a $15 million dollar a year skill set on the open market.

kearly":67vey5fr said:

McGruff":67vey5fr said:

JMO but when I watch Henry I see a guy who is decisive and explodes at the LOS.

And who are these better athletes?

https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/rb/

At 240 pounds, Henry is in the top 5, with the only guys above him being unproven small conference players with glaring weaknesses.

Click to expand...

The prevailing notion among evaluators is that Derrick Henry lacks explosiveness and agility. Five anonymous NFL executives were asked to make a player comparison for Derrick Henry. Three of them said Brandon Jacobs, one of them said Eddie Lacy, and the remaining GM said LaGarrette Blount. An NFC RB coach compared him to Marion Butts. All physically impressive runners, but none them are agile or explosive. Former NFL RB Merrill Hoge added to this line of thinking by directly stating that Henry lacks the "spontaneous agility" to succeed in every scheme in the NFL.

I don't always agree with NFL consensus but in this case I do. While Henry possesses a freakish vert and broad jump for a person his size, the end result of all that leg power is only a 1.61 ten yard split. To put that number in comparison:

Christine Michael: 1.49
Marshawn Lynch : 1.53
Robert Turbin: 1.57
Michael Robinson: 1.61
Spencer Ware: 1.65

Henry's 10 yard split is in the same range as fullbacks and sluggish RBs.

This shows on tape too. He can reach scary high speeds but is only worth using if the team around him is skilled enough to make sure he never touches anything. Every time I see Henry get bottled up or someone grabs his ankle for a second behind the LOS, it seems like he is almost always swarmed over and tackled right after. His top speed is excellent, but he has to be unfettered to reach it. If he were a Mario Kart character, he'd be Bowser.

For the right team, he's a great pick. However, I tend to think Seattle is the perfectly wrong team barring big changes in the OL. I don't think Seattle is lying about their interest in Henry, but I think this is one of those cases where they look at his physical size and traits and can't help but drool, even if his actual fit in the offense is dubious.

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Waking up in the middle of the night now, and this actually makes sense.

I guess I read "slow to the LOS" and interpreted that as tentative. Shaun Alexander was slow to the LOS. While I see some similarities between Shaun and Henry, that wasn't one. Henry isn't tentative. But the build up speed is a real deal with Henry.

I guess part of me gets frustrated because I see Henry being pigeon holed and pre judged on the basis of the team he played for. Not saying you, kearly, are doing that, but others seem to be. Becuase he had a great line, he either sucks or needs to go to a team with a great line. Kinda like Russell Wilson isn't good becuase he has a run game and defense to make him look good. No, Russell Wilson is good with or without those things, but they certainly help. Same goes with Henry. He's good regardless.

I do think it's hard to project how he would do in less favor let circumstances, becuase he's never had to face them consistently. He's never been hit in the backfield 2 out of every 5 snaps. But with the possible long term changes in our scheme from a pure power game to a more spread out offense, I wonder if that changes things. I think holes were there for Rawls becuase of the changes made in the offensive game planning, and I suspect they would be there for Henry as well. But it is a bit of a projection.

But I do suspect Attyla is right on the money, and it why I stick with my tougher version. Of Shaun Alexander comparison. The style is different, but the rsult would be similar IMO. A few more losses off set by a few more 60 yard home runs.

I thin it's the big play ability that has Carroll intrigued. Carroll loves big plays.

First of all, Marshawn's not walking back through that door. Rawls was great when healthy, and there are other really good options out there to complement him, no doubt. But if we somehow took Derrick Henry at 55 and you're salty, that's on YOU. Henry was the best high school running back EVER. Shattered every record that mattered. And since then he's only gotten bigger and faster, CRUSHING SEC competition when he was handed the ball (go ahead and give his Oline all the credit, I dare you), ascending to win the Heisman and going for 160 yds and 3 td against the best defense in the country in the National Championship.

When he does run he reminds me of a cross between Shawn Alexander and Eddie George... Alexander, in terms of his vision and commitment to "just go" down seams and has Alexander's stiff arm. Physically at 6'3 245, he looks like Eddie George (another former Heisman) to me, perhaps a little more top heavy than George, yet still faster than he ever was. Yes, he has the "runs too high" issue too, but in terms of durability and consistency, that was never a problem for George, who when he retired barely ever missed a snap in his 10 year career. No, Henry isn't a quick twitch/change of direction player like Christine Michael or Thomas Rawls and he doesn't have to be, even in our offense. Our offensive identity changed last year, teams had to respect our pass and we would spread teams out, and voila, holes opened that were never there for Marshawn. To have a guy this big run downhill on a defense, I think he would do well in certain schemes including singleback sets. (Of course none of this matters much if our Oline is still trash, I get it )

Northwest Seahawk":13r894ja said:

Billings is a guy you can plug and play at the 1T for probably the next five to ten years and be above average at that position. I'd take Billings over Bullard we really don't need a 3T not in the first and Billings is the more physical presence . I really hope they don't pass on Billings for Ifedi who I like but may or may not be a long term answer on that O-line. Billings is one of the best players in the First round imo as far as a player you can count on to come in and have an immediate impact at his position.

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Spot on.

For those who will state that Billings isn't a great athlete for his position, thats just gross ignorance of the player. He's the same build as Mebane, but MORE athletic. He was a record setting power lifter in high school, and has surprisingly good quickness for someone built like a tank at 315lbs. To suggest that his arms are short, 33 inches is not short for a DT, and not short for a player that stands 6'1 tall... Mebane's arms were "only" 33 inches long http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/historical/416670, how did that affect him? Besides, BIllings' game inside is about power, quickness, moves and relentlessness, all of which Billings showed at VERY high level at Baylor. He just trucks foos, and swims around these college lineman like he's treading water. Baylor teammate Shawn Oakman is a physical freak, standing 6'8" 285lbs of pure muscle, checks all your boxes for "athleticism" sure, but wasn't 1/2 the player Billings was- Billing being the guy that was doubled yet still produced more than Oakman. He collapses the pocket, something that won't always show up in the stat sheet. He's an aggressive player that last year led his team in tackles for a loss and sacks. Yes he can play the run, probably as good as anyone in this draft, based off of numbers, competition, and eye test. Where this "he can't play the run sufficiently," comes from, who knows.

We all have our favorites in this draft, and McShamble's draft spiked my interest when he had us taking 3 of my favorite players within the 3 rounds. Chances of even 1 of those picks happening is probably slim, and JS will most likely try to trade out of pick 26 for additional selections. Predraft conjecture is all hype machine, and regardless, in PCJS we should just trust. I love you guys and to me this is the most I've been interested in the draft in years Soooo many quality players at positions of need...

I don't want Henry he takes time to get going his 10 yard split is soooo freaking slow. Also next years draft is beyond loaded Fournette Chubb Cook ect. Only RB in this draft I would want as a first or second rounder is Zeke and he is gone long before our pick.