kearly
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I'm going to do things a little differently this time. Instead of posting a mock at the start, I'm going to just ramble through this "random thoughts" style with some predictions and observations.
With regards to Seattle's first round pick:
Overall, I think the draft will probably start something like this:
1st. Vernon Butler if he is there. If Seattle trades down, Jonathan Bullard. Wildcard DL pick: Kevin Dodd or Noah Spence. Wildcard OL picks: Jason Spriggs, Germain Ifedi, Cody Whitehair, or Ryan Kelly.
2nd. Germain Ifedi or Cody Whitehair if they are available. Otherwise, La'Raven Clark or Joe Dahl could be considered strongly.
3rd. Probably a running back here. Tony Pauline recently reported that Tyler Ervin is rising up draft boards and could very well end up as a day two pick.
3rd again. At this point I think Seattle goes BPA for the rest of the draft. Which at this pick, probably means selecting a defensive lineman who can stuff the run. There's a few options, but Javon Hargrave bears the strongest resemblance to Brandon Mebane as a player, so I think he'd be favored here.
Overall, my best guess would be that the first four picks start off something like this:
1. Vernon Butler (alt. Jonathan Bullard, Andrew Billings)
2. Germain Ifedi (alt. La'Raven Clark, Cody Whitehair)
3. Tyler Ervin
3. Javon Hargrave
That said, the draft board this year is very broad and this estimate assumes ideal circumstances. There's a million ways this draft could break, which is why I wanted to put the thought process in context before sharing the mini-mock.
- Thanks to Rob's detective work, we know that since drafting John Moffitt in 2011, the Seahawks have had some ironclad rules about how they draft offensive lineman. These rules include requiring a 9' broad jump and overall aptitude in bench/broad/vert testing that corresponds roughly with a "TEF" score around 3.00 or better. Applying this standard to the 2016 draft class eliminates most of the options available.
Less options is generally a bad thing, especially when some of the names to get taken off the list are among the best lineman in the draft. However, the good news about this reduction is that many of the best remaining OL are all guys that could easily fall into the middle of the 2nd round. Some of them may even reach the #56 pick.
This tends to make me think that Seattle will get the best bang for their buck at OL in round two, or possibly even in round three.
- Regarding the defensive line, Seattle has been linked to many 1st round defensive lineman, including some that don't even seem to fit Seattle's own preferences very well. This is in contrast to the offensive line where Seattle has made almost zero effort to create a smokescreen with first round OL options. Based on this evidence, it seems likely that Seattle's "plan A" is to draft a defensive lineman or pass rusher with their first pick, or at the very least, their top target is probably a defensive lineman or pass rusher.
Pete Carroll has also made comments a few months ago about wanting a pass rusher in the draft, and most pundits seem to agree that if you want to draft a pass rusher this year, you have to grab one early.
- Combine the information from bullet points one and two, and my best guess is that Seattle will probably go for D-line in round 1 and O-line in round 2 or possibly round 3.
- John Schneider has said that the 'draftable' pool of players this year is the largest since 2010, and that the talent 'shelf' dropoffs this year are less dramatic. Given the lack of athleticism in this draft this statement is very surprising, but I don't see how lying about it would benefit Seattle, so I tend to believe John Schneider is telling the truth. And if it is true, then it creates incentive for Seattle to focus on quantity over quality with their draft picks. In other words, to trade down.
Already there are stories about teams in the late 1st and early 2nd looking to move up, and John Schneider recently said that the Seahawks are currently in talks with teams about possible moves that could be made on draft day.
Seattle currently has 9 picks which is very close to PC/JS's average in Seattle. Seattle doesn't "need" to trade down like they have in some other years, but just as a rule of thumb, teams that have a lot of options on their draft boards tend to favor trading down.
- Seattle is really good at going off the grid and surprising even the most dedicated prognosticators. They say that they ignore any draft board other than their own and they mean it. I'm expecting a lot of surprising picks this year, there might even be some picks that don't seem "Seahawky."
With regards to Seattle's first round pick:
- I think there are roughly 15 players Seattle could pick at #26 and it wouldn't surprise me. And since they always find a way to surprise us with their first pick, the real list is probably something like 20 players.
However, out of all those players, the one that checks the most "Seahawky" boxes is Louisiana Tech DT Vernon Butler. I'm lukewarm on the guy personally, but as I've explained before I think he's going to be the guy for Seattle as the Seahawks look for rare traits and certain qualities. If Vernon Butler is gone, then I think Seattle's 2nd option will probably be to trade down and then look for Jonathan Bullard. Andrew Billings is not as "Seahawky" but is also worth keeping an eye on due to his extremely physical style of play (JS said he wants Seattle to be the bully again.)
There are so many viable DL picks that Seattle will probably be very tempted to move down from #26 unless one of those players is rated way ahead of all the others.
- An OL pick is possible at #26, but I think this only happens if the board breaks very poorly for Seattle on the DL. Or, it could happen if Seattle has a very high grade on one of the OL, such as Jason Spriggs. But I think if this were true, we would have seen more of an effort to smokescreen their interest.
If Seattle trades down into the 2nd round, then it could change the equation depending on how many pass rushers remain.
- I have a hunch that one of Ifedi or Whitehair could make it to #56. Both have a lot of appeal to Seattle, but are seemingly regarded with less zeal around the rest of the league. If both are gone, Seattle could consider many other options, including La'Raven Clark and Joe Dahl. Seattle surprised us all with mega-reach Justin Britt at this spot two years ago, so it's possible they could reach again with someone like Connor McGovern or Brandon Shell. I'm personally rooting for Shon Coleman here, but Seattle's past history shows they are very careful about players with bad medicals. And the one time they rolled the dice on bad medicals (Jesse Williams) it blew up in their face. They also had a bad experience with Garrett Scott when they found that he had a heart condition after drafting him.
- RB is a sneaky need for Seattle so it wouldn't shock me if they drafted one in round two or three. I'm not expecting Henry at #26 unless they have an absurdly high grade on him.
Overall, I think the draft will probably start something like this:
1st. Vernon Butler if he is there. If Seattle trades down, Jonathan Bullard. Wildcard DL pick: Kevin Dodd or Noah Spence. Wildcard OL picks: Jason Spriggs, Germain Ifedi, Cody Whitehair, or Ryan Kelly.
2nd. Germain Ifedi or Cody Whitehair if they are available. Otherwise, La'Raven Clark or Joe Dahl could be considered strongly.
3rd. Probably a running back here. Tony Pauline recently reported that Tyler Ervin is rising up draft boards and could very well end up as a day two pick.
3rd again. At this point I think Seattle goes BPA for the rest of the draft. Which at this pick, probably means selecting a defensive lineman who can stuff the run. There's a few options, but Javon Hargrave bears the strongest resemblance to Brandon Mebane as a player, so I think he'd be favored here.
Overall, my best guess would be that the first four picks start off something like this:
1. Vernon Butler (alt. Jonathan Bullard, Andrew Billings)
2. Germain Ifedi (alt. La'Raven Clark, Cody Whitehair)
3. Tyler Ervin
3. Javon Hargrave
That said, the draft board this year is very broad and this estimate assumes ideal circumstances. There's a million ways this draft could break, which is why I wanted to put the thought process in context before sharing the mini-mock.
ukeface:
