jammerhawk wrote:That said Seattle would have a good OT now if Collins had been snagged. I'm still OK with their decision and coulda woulda shoulda blame if applicable should apply to every FO.
Also, outside of the potential legal issues, we can't discount the fact that Collins was willing to sit out an entire year.
We can't know if that was just a bluff or not. However in his particular case -- I think it's relatively easy to see that from a numbers perspective, it was a move he could easily have made.
Had he been drafted, it would have been for a low contract number. And he'd be locked in for 4 years. He was very clearly an R1 talent and probably a top 20 at that. So in truth, had he just held out and got picked in R1 the following year, he'd have made more in 2016, than he would have for his entire 4 year late round deal had he simply conceded and signed to a day 3 contract.
The delta between a 6th round contract, versus a priority UDFA signing is very minimal. Add the benefit of only having a 3 year deal (can be extended after 2nd year) -- also made for incredible leverage on Collins' part. After year two, he will probably be making more in years 3, 4 and 5 on an extended deal than he actually would have had he been picked in R1. The only cost to him being the risk incurred that he get injured or not ultimately be worth resigning.
Bottom line is, that Collins' situation was very unique. And the almost certainty that he would not sign if drafted day 3 factored heavily. The only real expectation that he wouldn't make good on his threat would be if he were so worried about potential injury devastating his career. But if he sits out a year that risk is almost non existent. And the risk is the same if he is drafted versus going UDFA. Again the difference between is tiny (we're talking 435k versus 450-460k per year).
But also, there are fewer (as in no) limitations to how much of that base salary can be guaranteed. Quite literally as a UDFA, he could have demanded his entire salary be guaranteed. Which would have put his guaranteed money at or around that of a high 2nd round pick.
If you are interested in a more detailed explanation of why it was absolutely smart for Collins to make this threat, check out the post draft analysis by OTC here:http://overthecap.com/what-can-lael-col ... ree-agent/
The simple fact is, had we burned a 6th or 7th on him, he would have held out. The numbers bear it out. He had zero reason to relent and accept getting drafted in that range. Only the UDFA route provided some unique ability to recoup the loss of potential income. And also potentially turn into a better deal than even getting picked at 16-20 overall within the first 5 years of his career.
So I wouldn't be too PO'ed about this. We weren't going to be able to sign him and every GM in the league instantly arrived at the same conclusion. He would have held out even if the Cowboys drafted him.