Evaluating a draft class is always an evolving process. This is why I prefer the term "evaluate" to "judgment," which implies some kind of finality. The Washington Post developed a formula where they use Approximate Value (Pro Football Reference's general grading methodology) to measure whether a drafted player is meeting expectations, i.e. exceeding the average AV of that draft choice.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... 35d0b67743
For example, Jarran Reed managed an AV of 3 after his rookie season. The 49th pick is expected to have an average AV of 2.8 after his first year. Thus, Reed met (and slightly exceeded) his AV expectation after his rookie season. His total AV climbed to 10 after his second year, which is 3+ more than expected.
According this analysis using AV, the Seahawks 2015 and 2016 draft classes both exceeded expectations. The Washington Post calculated five years of AV for each draft choice (four years of rookie contract, plus one). In some cases, even five years is insufficient to fully evaluate a draft choice.
There is, of course, a lot more to evaluating a pick than raw playing time, stats, and accolades. AV is just one rough form of analysis in evaluating a draft choice.
I'm still very bullish on Tedric Thompson, even though he barely played behind Earl Thomas. Having watched him in college, I think he has a chance to grow into a legitimate playmaker. On the other hand, I'm negative about Delano Hill's cover skills and have very little confidence that Hill will improve enough to become a capable starting strong safety. I think it's good that the team is hedging its bets by loading up on veterans at the strong safety position with Bradley McDougald and Mo Alexander.
Now, look at three of the young offensive linemen on the roster: Germain Ifedi, Rees Odhiambo, and Ethan Pocic. All three exceeded their expected AV values, but all three have also posted negative PFF grades. I am way more optimistic about Ifed ithan Odhiambo. Not because Ifedi played more (his penalties sure didn't help his cause), but rather because Ifedi is the stronger and more explosive athlete. I also think Ifedi was miscast as a RT in the NFL; his poor lateral agility and misuse of reach is going to make playing tackle an insurmountable challenge for him, and it would be better if he moved back to guard. Pocic actually had a worse rookie season than the other recent draft picks. However, that was because Pocic was lacking in strength and was learning the guard position after being mainly a full-time center in college.
The fact that C.J. Prosise continues to get hurt DOES mean something. It's one indication of his expected future potential -- one of many. Prosise has also looked pretty damn explosive and has shown good vision when he has been healthy enough to see the field, Chris Carson dealt with his own injuries. Will Carson go the way of Prosise and Thomas Rawls in his second year? It's way too early to say with any certainty, but it is something to consider. The evaluation is complex and ongoing.
