CFP Predictions

HawkGA

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Who you got?

I'm thinking:

1. Alabama
2. Clemson

are the locks. The other two spots get a little dicier. I'm guessing the Big-10 and PAC-12, if Washington beats Auburn, get the final two spot, with the second most likely scenario being Big-10 and Georgia (if Washington doesn't beat Auburn). The Big-12 is out there lurking, but I suspect they don't get in.

So my final two:

3. Michigan (surprise, probably, but I don't think Wisconsin has what it takes to win the conference, Ohio State whithers under scandal, and Penn State takes a step back. Meanwhile, Harbs gets a quarterback and is able to do something with it).
4. Oklahoma (I know I listed UW as the most likely scenario, but I just don't think they're going to beat Auburn after traveling across the country and I listed Georgia as a more likely scenario but for Georgia to get in at #4, they basically have to get in after losing their Conference Title game, something Alabama didn't have to do last year. So while I think UW and UGA would be better teams, I don't think the chips will fall right for them).
 

drrew

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If Alabama and Georgia are again handed CFP spots with their respective non-conference schedules, then screw college football and the entire playoff process. Blow it up and try something else.
 
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HawkGA

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I can see that point of view, but when they are the two best teams . . .
 
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HawkGA

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fenderbender123":1lllfq81 said:
UW doesn't need to beat Auburn to make the playoffs.

That might be true in theory. It's not true in reality though. The PAC-12 is going to need a little special something and without that win, I don't think they'll have it.
 

fenderbender123

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They made it in 2016 with 1 loss to a good team. Why is 2018 different? Seems like we always assume that every team has to go undefeated to make the playoffs when in reality most teams that do make it are not.
 
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HawkGA

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fenderbender123":tj5weul8 said:
They made it in 2016 with 1 loss to a good team. Why is 2018 different? Seems like we always assume that every team has to go undefeated to make the playoffs when in reality most teams that do make it are not.

That's true but several one loss teams don't make the playoffs each year. And I think PAC-12 perception is probably the lowest of all the conferences. My point isn't so much that UW needs to be undefeated so much as they will need that signature win over Auburn to say the PAC-12 belongs. Remember, yes, UW made the playoffs a few years ago and got rather embarrassed.
 

fenderbender123

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UW's defense kept them in that entire game. It wasn't until the 4th quarter that Alabama scored a TD to go up by 17, which is a solid victory, but a far cry from an embarrassing blowout.

But okay, if we want to go by that logic, then a 1 loss Ohio State team should not make it to the playoffs over Washington this year since they got even more embarrassed by Clemson in the first round of the 2016 playoffs losing 31-0.

And also, a 1 loss Clemson team should not get into the playoffs over Washington either since last year they lost to Alabama by 18 points in the playoffs, which is 1 more point than UW lost to them by in 2016.

So then would you at least agree that Clemson and Ohio State should not get in over Washington if all 3 have 1 losses?
 

drrew

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HawkGA":12t7idi8 said:
Remember, yes, UW made the playoffs a few years ago and got rather embarrassed.

It was a 10 point game early in the fourth until Scarbrough broke the long run on a play where Gaines was blatantly held just before making the tackle, but sure, UW was 'rather embarassed'.
 

Chapow

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I agree with Fender that a 1 loss UW team could still get in. Especially if that 1 loss is to Auburn in Atlanta in the 1st game of the season. Seems like the earlier in the season a loss is, the more "forgivable" it is as far as rankings goes. In other words, I think they could recover enough in the eyes of the committee from a loss to Auburn the first game of the season to still be one of the top 4 teams by the end of the season, but if they lost to Stanford in November, for example, I think they'd be screwed even if they beat Auburn earlier. Just too late in the season to climb back up the rankings most likely.

On another note, what's with this silly charade that they are playing on a neutral field? Literally everybody knows that this is not a neutral field. It's about 100 miles from Auburn to Atlanta, it's over 2600 miles from Seattle to Atlanta. What is the problem with just admitting that this essentially a home game for Auburn?

How about next season Auburn comes and opens the season in Seattle? We can play at Century Link Field instead of Husky Stadium so it can be a neutral field and totes not a home game for UW. :roll:
 
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HawkGA

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Chapow":39ch70h8 said:
How about next season Auburn comes and opens the season in Seattle? We can play at Century Link Field instead of Husky Stadium so it can be a neutral field and totes not a home game for UW. :roll:

I would be all for that. I said in another thread that I would like to see a West Coast business start up a similar sponsored game like Chick-Fil-A does. That would be great.

I think it's fair to say (whether it is actually fair or not, it does seem to be the case) that the PAC-12 doesn't have a strong rep as a conference. Sure other teams have had bad losses in the playoffs, but those other conferences have been there multiple times too. Heck, Clemson won it two years ago. Unless I'm mistaken, the PAC-12's only appearance has been with Washington (and yes, Washington's defense was stout in the game and they made it a lot more respectable than I expected, but that game was never really in doubt because their offense was smothered that game). So Washington is essentially battling uphill.

In short, I think you could automatically pencil in the champions of the SEC, ACC, and Big-10 into the playoffs. The last spot is up for grabs between the PAC-12 champion, the Big-12 champion, Notre Dame, and a second SEC team.
 

fenderbender123

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HawkGA":1mldufuy said:
Sure other teams have had bad losses in the playoffs, but those other conferences have been there multiple times too. Heck, Clemson won it two years ago. Unless I'm mistaken, the PAC-12's only appearance has been with Washington (and yes, Washington's defense was stout in the game and they made it a lot more respectable than I expected, but that game was never really in doubt because their offense was smothered that game). So Washington is essentially battling uphill.

I don't disagree that this will be the mentality of many fans and maybe even some of those in charge of making decisions.

But that very reasoning is exactly why Washington should be let in. The Clemson and Ohio State losses prove that they can happen and are not indicative of a conference being weak. If Clemson and Ohio state have been given multiple chances, and proven that they can win it when given multiple chances, then so should Washington.

One P5 conference should never be rated higher than another. There is no valid statistics or science that prove that any one conference is better than another. If anything, the Pac-12 should be considered the hardest conference considering how few teams have statistically gone undefeated in conference play. What's there been, like 8 since it's entire history going pack to the Pac-8? Top to bottom, it's actually a really tough conference.
 
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HawkGA

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fenderbender123":35w5yuw3 said:
HawkGA":35w5yuw3 said:
Sure other teams have had bad losses in the playoffs, but those other conferences have been there multiple times too. Heck, Clemson won it two years ago. Unless I'm mistaken, the PAC-12's only appearance has been with Washington (and yes, Washington's defense was stout in the game and they made it a lot more respectable than I expected, but that game was never really in doubt because their offense was smothered that game). So Washington is essentially battling uphill.

I don't disagree that this will be the mentality of many fans and maybe even some of those in charge of making decisions.

But that very reasoning is exactly why Washington should be let in. The Clemson and Ohio State losses prove that they can happen and are not indicative of a conference being weak. If Clemson and Ohio state have been given multiple chances, and proven that they can win it when given multiple chances, then so should Washington.

One P5 conference should never be rated higher than another. There is no valid statistics or science that prove that any one conference is better than another. If anything, the Pac-12 should be considered the hardest conference considering how few teams have statistically gone undefeated in conference play. What's there been, like 8 since it's entire history going pack to the Pac-8? Top to bottom, it's actually a really tough conference.

Any conference that can be won by Oregon recently isn't that good. :pimp:
 

Glasgow Seahawk

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Gonna be tough for Washington. If they lose to Auburn they probably have to go unbeaten in conference play. That stretch around the UCLA and Oregon games worries me with both being away. Can't see being allowed in with 2 losses.

There's always a danger we lose to Arizona St too who seem to have a knack of beating us.

If they beat Auburn though they'll get a lot more slack for beating an SEC darling. Gonna be tough though.
 

JSeahawks

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KitsapGuy":gjrf8yhu said:
Chip Kelly and Herm Edwards don't scare me. Not too worried about Oregon either.


Y’all should be worried about your qb, your passing game and your pass rush. Not other teams. Uw is way overrated, just so the sec can say they beat a top 5 team after Auburn smashes them.
 

fenderbender123

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JSeahawks":1qwwrhcs said:
KitsapGuy":1qwwrhcs said:
Chip Kelly and Herm Edwards don't scare me. Not too worried about Oregon either.


Y’all should be worried about your qb, your passing game and your pass rush. Not other teams. Uw is way overrated, just so the sec can say they beat a top 5 team after Auburn smashes them.

QB, sure...he's had so much time to develop and prove himself.

But the pass rush? Like I've said before...guys stepped up in 2016 pretty unexpectedly. Guys like Gaines, Mathis, etc. Why can't that happen again?
 

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