kearly's 2013 dream draft, final version

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kearly's 2013 dream draft, final version
Wed Apr 17, 2013 9:08 pm
  • 2. Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford
    3. Ryan Swope, WR, Texas A&M
    4. Christine Michael, RB, Texas A&M
    5. John Simon, DE/DT, Ohio St.
    5. Luke Marquandt, T, Azusa Pacific
    6. Dustin Hopkins, K, Florida St.
    7. Jayson Dimanche, LB, Southern Illinois
    7. Micah Hyde, CB, Iowa
    7. Cooper Taylor, SS, Richmond
    7. BJ Daniels, QB, Southern Florida




    Zach Ertz:

    I don't know who will be available at the #56 pick, but you can bet there will be more than a few "1st round" type names still on the board by this point. It's anyone's guess who those players might be. I can't guarantee that Zach Ertz lasts this long, but I think he's a stronger candidate than some realize. His stock has slowly drifted south after the combine raised some warning flags, and this is a very competitive TE group at the top of the draft so it's anyone's guess which order they leave the board. Ironically enough, it's now that his stock is dropping that he's making "over-rated" lists left and right. The over-rated crowd showed up late to the party.

    Back in January, Zach Ertz was one of my favorite players in the draft. He's a fantastic blocker by H-back standards, he runs terrific routes and has sure hands. The only downside with Ertz is that his untapped upside is fairly minimal. That might cause Seattle to shy away from him, and it will probably hurt his draft stock in general during a draft where untapped upside is being emphasized more with prospects than at any time previously.

    Zach Ertz probably wouldn't top my draft board here, but you wouldn't get him any later than this I don't think. Seattle needs a tight end and they won't see a better value than this.

    Alternate choices: Ryan Swope, John Simon, Kawann Short, Sylvester Williams, Christine Michael, Corey Lemonier, Brandon Williams, Matt Elam, Robert Alford, Jonathan Banks, DeAndre Hopkins, Menelik Watson, Luke Marquandt




    Ryan Swope:

    Ryan Swope is my 2nd favorite player in the entire draft, just a hair behind John Simon. The reason I didn't take Simon here is because I feel that Simon has real question marks about his NFL future, as bright as I think that future will be. I have no such question marks about Swope. I think he's mindblowingly underrated. Not just a great player, but one with high upside and even a high floor. What really solidified my view on Swope are his elite intangibles and fire for the game. Whatever Swope's ceiling in the NFL may be, he's going to reach it.

    I initially had us taking Swope at #56, but I feel it's worth the gamble waiting a round as it's very hard to pass on a good get like Zach Ertz at #56.

    Alternate choices: John Simon, Christine Michael, Brandon Williams, Robert Alford, Brennan Williams, Stedman Bailey, Robert Woods, Luke Marquandt




    Christine Michael:

    This was a brutally tough call to make. In the end I went with Michael because I feel that Michael is much more likely to leave the board before Simon would. His upside might be the greatest of this entire list of players.

    Michael is an athletic marvel. He is freakishly explosive on tape, and that was backed up by his combine numbers. Despite being one of the heaviest backs in this draft, he ranked #1 among RBs for 3-cone, 20 yard shuttle, and vertical jump, the last of which set an all time RB record. While he "only" ran a 4.54 official time at the combine, on tape he is running away from defenders in the SEC for massive gains. His field speed looks like it's low 4.4s, on par with Cordarelle Patterson. He also shows great balance and awesome power.

    He fought with coaches during his time there. He's had some serious leg injuries the last few years. He has ball security issues. He's not much of a receiver and I couldn't tell you about his blocking. He's a pure north/south guy as a runner. That said, his profile is a near perfect match for former Seahawks 3rd round pick Ahman Green, who had identical size, similar speed, and ball security issues. But even Green didn't have Michael's monstrous athleticism. There are a lot of hurdles to clear, but Michael has megastar upside. If not for those hurdles, there is no chance he'd last into the 4th round.

    Alternate choices: John Simon, Matt Scott, Tyler Wilson, Armonty Bryant, Joe Kruger, Lavar Edwards, Luke Marquandt, Brennan Williams, Tharold Simon, Stefan Charles




    John Simon:

    Depending on which source you reference, John Simon has a great chance of reaching the early 5th. If I had to, I'd take him in round 2 or 3. Seattle would have taken their franchise savior at #12 last year if they had to. Knowing where to take him allowed them add both Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner to the roster.

    Simon has some of the best hand use I've ever seen. To say he plays with a high motor is an understatement. He may not control gaps with the kind of expertise that Sharrif Floyd does, but he anchors better than I would have expected and isn't a black hole in the running game. Simon is a stunningly good interior pass rusher that is deadly from the outside as well. Rarely have I seen a defensive player take over a game like Simon has when he's at his best.

    Simon leaves Ohio St. to rave reviews from one of the college game's elite coaches. His work ethic, intangibles and leadership are the best in this draft, hands down. The only reason he won't be an early pick: he's undersized. If he was a quarterback, I'd compare him to Russell Wilson.

    Simon slimmed down to appeal to 3-4 teams looking for a big outside linebacker. He's got a reputation for being a workout demon and I'm sure he could get back to his 2012 playing weight of 270 in no time. That size would only be six pounds less than Jason Jones last year. I don't know where Simon's weight will "max out", but it's worth noting that 6'1" DTs are not a rarity in the NFL, among them Brandon Mebane.

    Simon would face speed issues against mobile QBs from the end spot, but as a DT/DE hybrid I'd be less worried about that flaw.

    The more I watch Simon, the more I could see him working as a 3-4 backer. I think that's where he ends up. I wouldn't rule him out as a 4-3 D-lineman though. Far from it.

    Alternate choices: Armonty Bryant, Joe Kruger, Lavar Edwards, Maliciah Goodman, Luke Marquandt, Brennan Williams, Zaviar Gooden, Stefan Charles




    Luke Marquandt

    Marquandt has Nate Solder measurables, nastiness, and dominance on tape. The difference being that Marquandt did it playing for a tiny school against low competition. That adds an element of risk, but I think it's pretty clear that Marquandt's tools are at an elite level. You might question how he handles the jump to the NFL, but I don't think he was made to look great by lack of competition.

    Alternate choices: Zaviar Gooden, Jayson Dimanche, Cornelius Washington, Courtney Gardner, BJ Daniels, Ryan Aplin, Earl Wolff, Micah Hyde, Demetrius McCray




    Dustin Hopkins

    I'm just fine with bringing the Hausch back. It doesn't seem that Seattle feels that way. They clearly are playing the field at kicker right now.

    Dustin Hopkins is my favorite kicker prospect, as his accuracy the past few seasons really stands out. He finished with 448 total points scored over his career, which happens to be the Division I record.

    Hopkins is almost certain to be the first kicker drafted, so if Seattle wants him they will probably have to take him by the 6th round, possibly sooner.

    Alternate choices: Jayson Dimanche, Courtney Gardner, BJ Daniels, Ryan Aplin, Micah Hyde, Demetrius McCray, Cooper Taylor, Chris Gragg




    Jayson Dimanche

    I'm not sure how Dimanche would translate to a 4-3 LB role. On tape he looks like a stellar 3-4 OLB in the mold of Jarvis Jones. At just 231 pounds, he's far too light to feature in a 3-4 and might be limited to a 4-3 WILL spot in the NFL. While Dimanche is not as fast as Zaviar Gooden, he figures to be available later and has elite closing speed. Dimanche is also 10 times the "football player" that Gooden is.

    Of course, Seattle has drafted players who didn't look like naturals in the past and turned them into quality players. Still, it's hard not to get excited about landing Dimanche in the late rounds.

    Alternate choices: Courtney Gardner, Cooper Taylor, BJ Daniels, Ryan Aplin, Micah Hyde, Demetrius McCray, Abry Jones




    Micah Hyde

    Hyde is a forgotten man in a loaded cornerback class. His speed is on par with Richard Sherman's, which isn't bad in isolation. Unfortunately, the 2013 class had an unusually high number of corners running sub 4.5 times this year. With the craze being all about "untapped upside", that could lead to a huge swell of fast corners being drafted in the earlier rounds while slower corners with great tape are passed over.

    Alternate choices: Courtney Gardner, Cooper Taylor, BJ Daniels, Ryan Aplin, Demetrius McCray, Abry Jones




    Cooper Taylor

    Not sure if Taylor would last this long, but if he does it's a no brainer. He has some of the most freakish athleticism in the draft and is a perfect fit to compete for the "big nickle safety" role currently manned by Jeron Johnson and Winston Guy. Kam Chancellor is looking like a probable departure in 2014, so having another prospect in the pipeline at strong safety would be a good proactive move.

    Alternate choices: Courtney Gardner, BJ Daniels, Ryan Aplin, Seth Doege, Abry Jones




    BJ Daniels

    I think Daniels has overtaken Matt Scott as my favorite value QB. It probably helps that Daniels is going to be undrafted while Matt Scott will probably go in the 3rd round.

    Daniels has the mobility, toughness, and moves of a running back while displaying impressive touch and accuracy. He's also shown that he can check through reads and scramble to buy time on his throws. Like Scott, his decision making has issues now and then, but he's a natural point guard type and a very nice fit for our style of offense. I can't promise that he'll be a future franchise QB that nets us multiple draft picks, but I do think he's the funnest QB to watch in the entire draft.

    Alternate choices: Courtney Gardner, Ryan Aplin, Seth Doege, Abry Jones
    Last edited by kearly on Thu Apr 18, 2013 1:44 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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  • Pathetic... No Ducks... :roll:

    Nah, I would be way beyond satisfied with that draft. Although it would still leave me a little bit nervous about the depth of our o'line. But I suppose we can always find a few Omiyale type vets to fill that in later.

    Are you gonna do a final "what I think will happen" mock as well?
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  • Paul Mcquistan will probably be a backup next season, so I'm not worried about our depth on O-line even if Marquandt isn't ready quickly. Mcquistan can fill in for tackle very well if needed. Even in an injury ravaged situation I wouldn't worry- this front office has done an outstanding job of finding good backups at tackle off the street, if it comes to that. I don't see anything "raw" about Marquandt anyway, he just has the question marks about the low level of competition and the year off from injury.

    JSeahawks wrote:Are you gonna do a final "what I think will happen" mock as well?


    Yup, probably a day or two before the draft starts.

    I'll try to work in a Duck on that one. No promises though. ;)
    Last edited by kearly on Thu Apr 18, 2013 1:38 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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  • kearly wrote:
    JSeahawks wrote:Are you gonna do a final "what I think will happen" mock as well?


    Yup, probably a day or two before the draft starts.

    I'll try to work in a Duck on that one. ;)


    Looking forward to it. Even if there are no Ducks.

    I have a feeling Michael Clay is probably the most likely to be a Seahawk. I'd love Kiko, but not sure he fits. I'd love Long, but think we'd have to pick him higher then we want to.

    Clays like the linebacker version of Russell Wilson. Too small. GREAT person. Amazing on the intangibles. Really solid football player. Do it! For me!

    Now completely unrelated, and I just ask you this here since you had a TE for our number one pick. Do you have any feel for that basketball player we signed as a TE?
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  • I dropped Michael Clay once I saw his pro-day stuff. His 40 was disappointing especially by pro-day standards. Not that it was horrible or anything, but I sense Seattle wants 4.4 type speed at WLB and Clay was nowhere near that. (Dimanche was in the 4.5s IIRC and has elite quickness that doesn't show up in his 40 time.) That said, Clay might still have value to us as a Jeron Johnson type.

    JSeahawks wrote:Do you have any feel for that basketball player we signed as a TE?


    When he was first signed I dug around to see if I could find anything on him. I failed miserably. Pretty much all I can tell you is that his brother plays in the NFL for the Patriots. Oh, and he gives a surprisingly good interview.

    Guys like Fells are the definition of roster fodder. He's this year's Sean McGrath.

    Like Brady Quinn, Seattle's investment in Fells ironically points to that position being a need in the draft. Seattle picked Quinn because they wanted a veteran who was easy to beat out and wouldn't cost them anything (hence the "hands tied" comment Schneider made right before the signing). They will obviously still draft a QB, possibly earlier than some might think. Fells is the same thing. Nobody is penciling him in as the #3 TE. He's just here to compete. Even his brother on the Patriots is a fringe roster guy. Fells won't impact Seattle's need at TE at this stage.
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  • I'm posting my dream mock tomorrow after it's been going through dozens of revisions and gathering dust in my drafts folder for a while. Fairly similar as far as player positions targeted. I like Ertz but I can't see him lasting to round two but it would be interesting if he was sitting there for us. I would grab Michael in the fourth as well, it's exactly what I have in my mock too but he could go s high as early second even with all of his question marks. Hopefully he falls though. I love alot of your late round picks, like Marquardt especially and Hopkins would be solid.

    I have to be honest, I don't know much about Swope. Why do you think he would be a great fit here?
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  • The Yugoslavian wrote:I have to be honest, I don't know much about Swope. Why do you think he would be a great fit here?


    He's excellent in the slot, but can play outside well. He's fast. He has very quick feet and is good after the catch, which fits our "YAC" oriented WR criteria very well. He's a good deep threat. He catches everything that's thrown at him. He's extremely fiery and competitive. He's clutch. Six foot tall. He's arguably the best blocker at WR in this draft. But more important than all of that, he knows how to improvise to get open for a scrambling QB. He was a favorite target of Ryan Tannehill and Johnny Manziel- both of whom were improvising, mobile QBs. Manziel in particular has a style that is extremely similar to Russell Wilson.

    A better question might be where he doesn't fit. Everything that our FO looks at in a player and in a receiver, Swope has a golden star in those areas.

    Course, if you draft Swope then you probably won't get a ton of 2013 ROI, as he'd be at best our 4th receiver, and probably our 5th. That said, is Tate still going to be here in 2014? How about Sidney Rice? I hope they are, but it seems likely that one of both could be in their final Seahawks season this year, so being proactive at WR makes sense if a fantastic pick is staring you in the face.
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  • Hi Kearly, I was just curious as to who you'd see filling out last starting LB spot if this draft was to come to fruition? I can't catch alot of college ball here in Ireland, so is Dimanche the type of guy who could start, or is it Malcolm Smith's job to lose do you think? Thanks :)
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  • Kip, I defer to your expertise, but I would suggest a few changes.

    #56 - Terron Armstead RT - great measurables and footwork. I like Breno, but he is not a strength at RT.

    #123 - Brandon Williams DT - great upside, big need.

    #158 - Chris Gragg TE - good player for a position of need
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  • HawksSoc wrote:Hi Kearly, I was just curious as to who you'd see filling out last starting LB spot if this draft was to come to fruition? I can't catch alot of college ball here in Ireland, so is Dimanche the type of guy who could start, or is it Malcolm Smith's job to lose do you think? Thanks :)


    Kip will answer you eventually, but I will tell you what I think in the interim.

    First, don't feel cheated on Dimanche, that highlight video is about all any of us will see of Dimanche in college. Southern Illinois gets no exposure on national TV.

    He was team captain.
    The video shows a great special teamer.
    It also shows a guy who reads the option plays really quick. That is probably the number one reason I like him, I have not seen a single LB this year who cut up the pistol look at the offense's point of attack like that.

    If you watch the plays one by one, Dimanche does play in space very well. On a few of those plays, he shadows a slot or tight end receiver in coverage. My favorite thing he does. though, is attack and disrupt. He gets off blocks.

    Naysayers will trot out the small school argument. I would counter with how fast his decision making is on video, which is a trait that transcends quality of competition. I would add that his measurables are stellar.

    I don't think he will be around in the 7th, I think several teams are well aware of his talents. Wherever he goes, I am going to watch him with curiosity.
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  • In my mind, Getting Zach Ertz and Christine Michael aren't worth potentially losing out on Swope and Simon.

    To me, if Seattle feels the same way, I see both of these guys are the stereotypical 'reach' picks that leave media experts scratching their heads. I'd project them as our first and second choices (we may trade down a small amount to pick up picks or 2014 picks in the process). In fact, I'd say this draft is sufficiently unpredictable that we may see several such reach picks by Seattle due to the level of uncertainty.

    I don't think Seattle messes around too much. Get their guys and walk away from the table with high fives.

    I just think they're going to see this draft as more difficult to project. With the draft being flatter, but also due to the fact that the NFL is becoming more accustomed to the post CBA drafts. Trading up/down to secure guys you want is much easier and makes the draft more fluid. With one such draft under the leagues' belts, I expect to find many more draft day trades to make the draft more unpredictable yet.

    However, I'd have to agree. If the draft falls this way, I'd consider it a dream draft too. Most of these prospects tickle my fanhood in a good way.
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  • Thanks for your very good assessment scottemojo. DiManche is a bit smallish but he doesn't play small on the field. You can see it in the way he gets off blocks... he just bounces bigger players off him. Agree he wont be around in the 7th, there's been alot a buzz around DiManche lately and think a team will take a chance on him in the middle rounds. I would happily spend one of our 5th rounders on him.

    Swope is like Wes Welker in Mike Wallace's body. I agree with Attyla, I don't think Ertz is worth losing out on Swope. I think FO needs to seriously consider trading down from 56. There's alot of talent in the middle rounds and I would be very happy with Swope as our first selection early in the 3rd. I like Christine Michael talent-wise but think his skills overlap quite a bit with Lynch and Turbo and not sure it's worth the potential distractions. IMHO, I think there's better value at TE with Kyle Jusczyzk and RB with Latavius Murray/Knile Davis (I'm taking Le'Veon Bell if he falls to 4th round).
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  • kearly:

    Pretty good draft--I, like attyla, would take Swope and Simon 2nd and 3rd respectively. Or I'd take Tavis Kelce over both of them in the 2d and hope rounds 3 and 4 fall the way you predict and take those two there. Do you not like Ertz better tan Kelce or just think that Kelce won't be there in the second?

    I'd also probably pass on Cristine Michael as I don't think an RB is a great need at this point and if we're going to take a flyer on a player, I'd rather it be a position of need--like OLB. I, too, noticed that you did not draft an OLB until the 6th nor did you have any in your "alternate picks" the first few rounds. Is this just a weak draft for LBs this year? Do you see Simon playing that role? Myself, I love Khaseem Greene, Arthur Brown, Alec Olgletree, and Jarvis Jones and its possible, though not probable, one of them will fall to 56--would you take any of them over Ertz if they fell that low?
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  • kearly wrote:Course, if you draft Swope then you probably won't get a ton of 2013 ROI, as he'd be at best our 4th receiver, and probably our 5th. That said, is Tate still going to be here in 2014? How about Sidney Rice? I hope they are, but it seems likely that one of both could be in their final Seahawks season this year, so being proactive at WR makes sense if a fantastic pick is staring you in the face.


    I think you and I see Swope pretty much eye to eye.

    I've forwarded the viewpoint that I actually see Swope as being capable of playing the outside effectively. His balance, ability to break tackles and shiftiness are all top rate. I personally see him as a very real and potential starter at Tate's position. And I really do like Tate.

    But I look at a lot of attributes that Swope has, and I think he compares very favorably to Tate. As a starter

    1. Speed. Swope still to this day is fighting some kind of bias on his combine time. Despite running a sub 4.4 twice. Honestly, I look at the tape and I can see that speed. Watch his tape and the number of times he breaks away from pursuit and keeps separation is almost too many to count.

    2. Hands. He has small hands. But he's an incredibly reliable receiver. He displays outstanding receiving skills. Catches the ball in the hands typically. But knows how/when to allow the ball to come into his body too.

    3. Awareness. This guy plays 3 moves ahead. In virtually everything he does. He catches a crossing pattern short of the goal line and he immediately knows before he makes the break that he's going to have a cushion where he can catch and dart the ball over the plane. He doesn't turn, look, recognize and then execute. He sees the possibility as he's planting his foot in the ground before he's made his cut.

    You can see this on about 5 TD highlights of his. He catches the ball and immediately crosses the plane with it. Before the CB even realizes what he's doing. He is just amazingly alert. Yoda like.

    His double moves are outstanding. And you can see multiple instances where he's set up the double move ahead of time. This is a guy who is dedicated to the details of his craft.

    I've lauded his ad lib skills enough. They are truly elite.

    4. Quickness. Swope is insanely quick. Everyone is falling over their meat singing the praises of Tavon Austin. This is a gimmick WR, who uses catlike quickness to turn bubble screens into big plays. Tavon Austin logged a 1.45 10 yard split with a 4.34 40. Swope by comparison, logged a 1.47 10 yard split and a 4.34 40.

    Austin is hyped as a first round talent. There is just this kind of disbelief that Swope simply cannot be that fast or that quick.

    But you watch his tape, and he just magically seems to make everyone else just appear slower. You see him run, and he looks like he runs at about 90%. Always in control. Always with great balance. And even at 90%, always able to outrun everyone around him. And able to burst into the clear on demand. And then kind of coasts/maintains that cushion.

    Honestly, I truly believe that's why there is this state of denial that Swope is that fast. Because he does use his speed judiciously. I don't believe it's a racial bias thing, because I can see where he's not blazing at 100%. I just happen to view it as largely intentional and I think the evidence is there as to why (improved balance, control and on demand burst).

    In my view, Swope is flat out the best WR prospect in this draft. I simply love the way he makes everyone else look slow to react and lethargic. And I firmly believe that he'll be the one outlier in this class. One of the best at any position in 2013. I think it's visible on tape. Swope was amazingly productive. For 4 seasons. I think he's easily capable of playing the outside as a regular starter. And I do think he's going to cost Tate his job if he is drafted. Because I see Swope as an upgrade to Tate in all 4 of these areas.

    I do think that Miami is looking at Swope. And they pick at 77 and 82. If Swope is on the board by then, I highly doubt he lasts past that. Unless we trade up from #87, I think Swope has to go before 77.

    Although I know it's not the correct format being a mock draft, but I could see Seattle trading down from 56 maybe even twice to get some late round picks. One thing we know: Seattle LOVES to trade down. Obviously there are a lot of prospects that look intriguing in the 5th and 6th round ranges. A lot of guys on Kip's alternative lists that would be attractive.
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  • Very good write up Kearly!
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  • Wouldn't mind this draft Kearly, nice write up. No DT Stefan Charles even as an alternate? He did visit us.
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  • Yeah co-sign me onto this as my dream draft

    I don't know who I want to compare Ertz to.. I see Gronk like similarities in stature.. but I'm almost starting to see him as a Jason Witten II type TE. Either of those two guys would obviously be a dream to add to an already scary offense in the making.

    As far as Swope, it must just be because he's small, white and nasty in the slot - but I swear I see a lot of Welker in him.
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  • Lady Talon wrote:Wouldn't mind this draft Kearly, nice write up. No DT Stefan Charles even as an alternate? He did visit us.


    Whoops.
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  • Awesome work, Kip. I'd go crazy if we got Simon that late.

    One thing though--you should go back and watch some Ahman Greene tape. Dude was an insane athlete.
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  • Scottemojo wrote:
    HawksSoc wrote:Hi Kearly, I was just curious as to who you'd see filling out last starting LB spot if this draft was to come to fruition? I can't catch alot of college ball here in Ireland, so is Dimanche the type of guy who could start, or is it Malcolm Smith's job to lose do you think? Thanks :)


    Kip will answer you eventually, but I will tell you what I think in the interim.

    First, don't feel cheated on Dimanche, that highlight video is about all any of us will see of Dimanche in college. Southern Illinois gets no exposure on national TV.

    He was team captain.
    The video shows a great special teamer.
    It also shows a guy who reads the option plays really quick. That is probably the number one reason I like him, I have not seen a single LB this year who cut up the pistol look at the offense's point of attack like that.

    If you watch the plays one by one, Dimanche does play in space very well. On a few of those plays, he shadows a slot or tight end receiver in coverage. My favorite thing he does. though, is attack and disrupt. He gets off blocks.

    Naysayers will trot out the small school argument. I would counter with how fast his decision making is on video, which is a trait that transcends quality of competition. I would add that his measurables are stellar.

    I don't think he will be around in the 7th, I think several teams are well aware of his talents. Wherever he goes, I am going to watch him with curiosity.


    Appreciate the response, it's cool to talk to one of the godfathers of our fair forum :180670: Dimanche does sound interesting, the ability to diagnose the Read Option seems like a nice bonus, since we are playing Kap twice and Newton among others this year. LB's who can cover well are valuable too, I'll be sure to remember his name come the later stages next week!
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  • I think WLB and DT are way too big of weakness to pass on them until the late rounds, latest we wait is 5th round for either. I'd be amazed if we did get one or the other in the 2nd or 3rd.
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  • I have been inquiring about swoop for a while. Does he not look like a NE draft pick?
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  • Fudwamper wrote:I have been inquiring about swoop for a while. Does he not look like a NE draft pick?

    I think Swope ends up at Miami.
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  • Fudwamper wrote:I have been inquiring about swoop for a while. Does he not look like a NE draft pick?


    Agree with this. If Swope doesn't make it to the 2nd, it's because of NE.
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  • I don't understand why so many folks think Swope will reach the third round. He's not a secret Lithuanian track star. He killed the 40 at the combine and has plenty of great tape out there. We were all hoping to pick Bruce Irvin in the third round last year, and look what happened to that.
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  • Excellent. I didn't notice "dream" draft in the title until after I looked at the selections. I hope your "what I think" draft looks similar enough to this.
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  • godawg wrote:I don't understand why so many folks think Swope will reach the third round. He's not a secret Lithuanian track star. He killed the 40 at the combine and has plenty of great tape out there. We were all hoping to pick Bruce Irvin in the third round last year, and look what happened to that.


    Several reasons:

    1. He's a cold a@$ed Hon .... or so I'm told. So like a black QB has to be a running QB, a white WR has to be Wes Welker. Stereotypes. Gotta love em. Especially if you are an organization that doesn't believe in them.

    2. Disbelief of the measurables. There still persists amongst just about everyone I've ever talked to -- a general sense that he killed the combine but his tape belies that. I see why the tape belies that. Or at least I think I do.

    3. He's not a "#1 receiver". I'm convinced God kills a puppy any time some nutwad spews out that groupthink term. It's a complete WASTE of time to try and get the next AJ Green. It is the dress on the proverbial postseason pig. There is no correlation at all between having a #1 receiver and winning in the postseason. In fact just the opposite is true. Almost every single year.

    So let everyone else trip over their meat trying to get 6'3"+ ceiling guys like Patterson or Hunter or gadget bubble screen princesses like Tavon Austin. And consider yourself fortunate that skill players that don't fit the mold fall into your lap every year.

    4. Depth at desired positions. Swope is highly regarded by some. But the truth is, there is just a glut of talent. At important positions. It's a numbers thing really.

    5. Demand. Last year was supposed to be this great year for WRs. Lots of them were taken in the first 3 rounds (13). So a lot of teams are going to be looking elsewhere to spend their draft capital. Not unlike this year's demand for QBs. It's very uncrowded this season, since so many teams have picked QBOTF candidates in both 2011 and 2012.

    Next year, there will probably be 2-3 times as many teams in the market than there is this year.

    As far as the WR class goes, it's a classic case of supply and demand. This year's class is better in my opinion. But there are fewer teams looking to spend early picks on WRs this year than last. Talent is going to slide because of need and recent investment.

    WR, I believe, is one of those 'pockets' of talent that John was referring to. I'd think OT is another, as well as DT. That doesn't mean all of the R2 guys comprise those pockets of talent. Maybe he likes the early day 3 OTs better than other early day 3 positions. I do think there is evidence to suggest that they do set up their board in a breadth first fashion. Trying to get guys that will compete at every stage. It's not inconceivable that they pass on a OT they like at 56, to instead take a WR -- because they like the R4 OTs better than the R4 WRs. Thus getting 2 valuable upgrades instead of one and a camp body.
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  • HawksSoc wrote:
    Scottemojo wrote:
    HawksSoc wrote:Hi Kearly, I was just curious as to who you'd see filling out last starting LB spot if this draft was to come to fruition? I can't catch alot of college ball here in Ireland, so is Dimanche the type of guy who could start, or is it Malcolm Smith's job to lose do you think? Thanks :)


    Kip will answer you eventually, but I will tell you what I think in the interim.

    First, don't feel cheated on Dimanche, that highlight video is about all any of us will see of Dimanche in college. Southern Illinois gets no exposure on national TV.

    He was team captain.
    The video shows a great special teamer.
    It also shows a guy who reads the option plays really quick. That is probably the number one reason I like him, I have not seen a single LB this year who cut up the pistol look at the offense's point of attack like that.

    If you watch the plays one by one, Dimanche does play in space very well. On a few of those plays, he shadows a slot or tight end receiver in coverage. My favorite thing he does. though, is attack and disrupt. He gets off blocks.

    Naysayers will trot out the small school argument. I would counter with how fast his decision making is on video, which is a trait that transcends quality of competition. I would add that his measurables are stellar.

    I don't think he will be around in the 7th, I think several teams are well aware of his talents. Wherever he goes, I am going to watch him with curiosity.


    Appreciate the response, it's cool to talk to one of the godfathers of our fair forum :180670: Dimanche does sound interesting, the ability to diagnose the Read Option seems like a nice bonus, since we are playing Kap twice and Newton among others this year. LB's who can cover well are valuable too, I'll be sure to remember his name come the later stages next week!


    Thanks for the props, but for the record, I ain't shit. Certainly not a godfather, just one more guy with too much time on his hands who proves it by racking up thousands of posts.
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  • Attyla the Hawk wrote:3. He's not a "#1 receiver". I'm convinced God kills a puppy any time some nutwad spews out that groupthink term. It's a complete WASTE of time to try and get the next AJ Green. It is the dress on the proverbial postseason pig. There is no correlation at all between having a #1 receiver and winning in the postseason. In fact just the opposite is true. Almost every single year.

    So let everyone else trip over their meat trying to get 6'3"+ ceiling guys like Patterson or Hunter or gadget bubble screen princesses like Tavon Austin. And consider yourself fortunate that skill players that don't fit the mold fall into your lap every year.


    Brilliantly written. Much lolz.

    Why are you not writing more? Seriously, start a blog.
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  • nanomoz wrote:Awesome work, Kip. I'd go crazy if we got Simon that late.

    One thing though--you should go back and watch some Ahman Greene tape. Dude was an insane athlete.


    I did. Michael's got him beat in terms of athleticism. Although Green did run a faster forty time in shorts.

    Scottemojo wrote:
    Fudwamper wrote:I have been inquiring about swoop for a while. Does he not look like a NE draft pick?

    I think Swope ends up at Miami.


    Yeah, sounds like Swope is getting mid 2nd round talk right now, and there are obvious connections in Miami. Both the QB and the OC.
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  • That would be a nice haul. My preferance for the DT spot would be a M. Hughes type rather than a smaller Simon.
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  • Attyla the Hawk wrote:
    WR, I believe, is one of those 'pockets' of talent that John was referring to. I'd think OT is another, as well as DT. That doesn't mean all of the R2 guys comprise those pockets of talent. Maybe he likes the early day 3 OTs better than other early day 3 positions. I do think there is evidence to suggest that they do set up their board in a breadth first fashion. Trying to get guys that will compete at every stage. It's not inconceivable that they pass on a OT they like at 56, to instead take a WR -- because they like the R4 OTs better than the R4 WRs. Thus getting 2 valuable upgrades instead of one and a camp body.



    Love this line of thinking.

    we might pass on a slightly better player at position X because we can still get a quality one later whereas if we don;t get a player at position Y, there won't be any Y's later on good enough to compete.
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  • Apparently marquardt went to skyline, so he is from here, which is kind of neat. Scott enyeart says he really wants to be a seahawk. 49ers showing heavy interest though (day 3).

    Love the mock btw.
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  • U crazy, Kearly... U crazy :)
    It is what it is...
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  • Nice mock, the first 3 picks would bring in some more legit playmakers for the offense...IMO Robert Turbin is just a guy and is nothing special whereas Christine Michael if given enough carries could be the best RB in this year's draft.

    Having Ertz and Swoop fall to us in the rounds that you selected them is wishful thinking, but if they did fall to those spots they would be steals.

    I'm not sold on John Simon being a fit for the Seahawks, the Pete Carroll & John Schnider mantra is bigger/faster players on defense. I'm sure 3-4 teams are salivating at the thought of drafting Simon and sticking him as a rush OLB. Simon would be a perfect fit at OLB for a team like the Steelers.

    Micah Hyde has not gotten the love from mock draft sites or from the Mel Kiper's of the world, but come draft day I could easily see a team selecting him in the 4th round. I agree that other CB's may be getting more attention due to the fact that they ran fast or looked good doing drills in gym shorts, but game tape does not lie. I don't think GM's and their scouts will not overlook the fact that Hyde has good size and he makes plays on the ball. Put him on a team that likes to play man-press or even try him at FS...maybe the next Jairus Byrd.
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  • Kearly,
    Love your excellent research, analysis, and articles. And golly gee, if we could actually get the pick value and robustness of the draft you propose, I would be blown away, and the first to praise JS/PC once again as draft day building block geniuses. It is a bit fantastic/optimistic IMO opinion however, 'cuz Ertz will be gone by 56. And so will Cristine Michael be, by #123.
    (Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have the two Zach's on the field, one running down each hash to pressure the safeties deep, while unleashing Harvin, Golden, & Baldwin underneath...)
    Swope in the 3rd is certainly a perfect world ideal, but wouldn't it be more realistic to draft Ryan Swope at #56 to be certain, and then pick up Travis Kelce at #87, to essentially accomplish the same thing? I'd hate to lose Swope, while trying to greedily get Ertz on board first, and hoping hoping hoping Swope's still there waiting at #87.

    Still... your final draft is one of the finest I've seen. Well done Sir!

    Minor adjustments for value, need, and round might look like so:

    kigenzun's final mock 2013
    2-56: Ryan Swope, WR, Texas A&M. (For Russell to win the Heisman, and get drafted in Rd.1. Er, I mean... bring the Lombardi Trophy to Seattle... this is the player we need from this draft.)
    3-87: Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati. (Same concept, different guy.)
    4-123: Montori Hughes, DT, Tennesee-Martin. (NFL Bigger and Faster than Simon. Sorry mancrush.)
    5-138: Jordan Mills, OT, Louisiana Tech. (Nastier than Breno. Quicker feet vs. outside speed rushers. And way cheaper in 2014.)
    5-158: Mark Harrison, WR, Rutgers. (If not Michael for insuring Marshawn, how about seasoning Harrison to replace Rice in 2014.)
    6-194: Dustin Hopkins, K, Florida State. (Why wait? Touchbacks for years, no momentum or extra yardage, & bring on the D, 1st &10 from the 20!)
    7-214: Cooper Taylor, SS, Richmond. (A big safety in the pipeline for 2014.)
    7-220: BJ Daniels, QB, South Florida. (Keep Quinn, upgrade Portis.)
    7-241: Brice Butler, CB, San Diego State. (This year's conversion project.)
    7-242: Kwame Geathers, NT, Georgia. (More beef.)
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  • I am nervous that the 49ers are going to grab Swope with one of their 2nd rounders. I really don't want to see him go there.
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  • HawkFan72 wrote:I am nervous that the 49ers are going to grab Swope with one of their 2nd rounders. I really don't want to see him go there.


    I am thinking that the 49ers may try and trade up to #12 for Tavon Austin.

    I think Swope is in the mix (along with Robert Woods and Quinton Patton) for NE's pick at #29.

    Swope is most likely going to the Phins though early in the 2nd.
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  • Yup, that would definitely be a dream.
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  • kigenzun wrote:Kearly,
    Love your excellent research, analysis, and articles. And golly gee, if we could actually get the pick value and robustness of the draft you propose, I would be blown away, and the first to praise JS/PC once again as draft day building block geniuses. It is a bit fantastic/optimistic IMO opinion however, 'cuz Ertz will be gone by 56. And so will Cristine Michael be, by #123.
    (Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have the two Zach's on the field, one running down each hash to pressure the safeties deep, while unleashing Harvin, Golden, & Baldwin underneath...)
    Swope in the 3rd is certainly a perfect world ideal, but wouldn't it be more realistic to draft Ryan Swope at #56 to be certain, and then pick up Travis Kelce at #87, to essentially accomplish the same thing? I'd hate to lose Swope, while trying to greedily get Ertz on board first, and hoping hoping hoping Swope's still there waiting at #87.

    Still... your final draft is one of the finest I've seen. Well done Sir!

    Minor adjustments for value, need, and round might look like so:

    kigenzun's final mock 2013
    2-56: Ryan Swope, WR, Texas A&M. (For Russell to win the Heisman, and get drafted in Rd.1. Er, I mean... bring the Lombardi Trophy to Seattle... this is the player we need from this draft.)
    3-87: Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati. (Same concept, different guy.)
    4-123: Montori Hughes, DT, Tennesee-Martin. (NFL Bigger and Faster than Simon. Sorry mancrush.)
    5-138: Jordan Mills, OT, Louisiana Tech. (Nastier than Breno. Quicker feet vs. outside speed rushers. And way cheaper in 2014.)
    5-158: Mark Harrison, WR, Rutgers. (If not Michael for insuring Marshawn, how about seasoning Harrison to replace Rice in 2014.)
    6-194: Dustin Hopkins, K, Florida State. (Why wait? Touchbacks for years, no momentum or extra yardage, & bring on the D, 1st &10 from the 20!)
    7-214: Cooper Taylor, SS, Richmond. (A big safety in the pipeline for 2014.)
    7-220: BJ Daniels, QB, South Florida. (Keep Quinn, upgrade Portis.)
    7-241: Brice Butler, CB, San Diego State. (This year's conversion project.)
    7-242: Kwame Geathers, NT, Georgia. (More beef.)


    Props to you. I agree with absolutely every pick in this draft with the exception being that I'd like for us to take one OLB--probably in the third or fourth---but, it would be hard to pass up on any of the players you mention to get one.
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  • Agreed. :D
    However, no longer being fooled by an East Coast media bias of our "critical need to draft a WILL first thing Friday morning", and to get us all to finally stop thinking the same... i.e. "All we need is a new OLB in Rd2 and we're fine" mentality, I made a point in my final mock of NOT DRAFTING ANY LBs AT ALL. Not even at 242, where I take a NT instead (who i am aware will likely be gone btw), which is a "BUT BUT BUT...WHERE'S THE BEEF IN OUR RUN D??" jester pick.

    This is where kearly is a analysis genius and is 'identifying the true problem' of helping the offense, (especially for cap flexibility in 2014 and beyond) and weighting his draft accordingly. I wish we could get Ertz, and Swope too, which is why I posted here. Cuz yeah, nobody back east gets as deep as kearly for our team. Much much much props. Thus, my 'adjustments' are also weighted to help the offense, now, and especially in 2014.

    Personally, my whole world view on the state of the defense changed after we signed Cliff Avril AND Michael Bennett... and then especially after signing both Antoine Winfield AND Kam Chancellor. I mean that's basically 4 new starters, & all of em upgrades(!) because now that Kam Chancellor is locked in contractwise, he himself is a bigger, faster, better TE coverage skills, and more experienced big game hitter COMBINATION, than any of those projected rookie OLB such as Greene, Brown, Gooden, Jenkins, Dimanche etc etc anyways. And has a successful history of 'positional changes', cuz he's so football-smart that he used to be a ...wait for it... QB. So, why not let him get jiggy earning that cash BURYING Gore and FACEPLANTING Kaepernick on the read option! :thfight7:

    With these key signings, it's lookin like a 'whole new thang' on D... a futuristic 21st Century... cutting edge... flexible, blitzable, muti-layerable, customized, hybridized, for reals #1 Deal to me. :thirishdrinkers:

    For instance, right this second our basic 8 in the box (from L to R) might look like this:
    Winfield, Irvin/Bryant, Mebane, Wagner, Bennett, Avril, KJ, Chancellor
    with 3 Pro Bowlers (Sherman, Thomas, & Browner) holding down the back end.

    It could be argued that's 5 Pro Bowl defensive backs, a MLB, and 5 interlocking rushers/runstoppers. I don't know what to call it except... (if you know the song, sing along...) THIS IS %@#&$% AWESOME!!!

    Yet, being a natural people pleasing kind o guy...AAWolf... if you have to have a linebacker (...lest I give thee a brain tumor lol...) how about Rd. 5, pick 154, Korey Toomer, OLB, Idaho. Last year. Who now this year is a 2nd year practice squad vet who already knows our guys and our system.
    :P
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  • I would see them taking a LB for three reasons:

    1. Competition. We have 3 backups vying for the Will. While I expect one of the three to be the day 1 starter, I also expect us to take a 'light a fire under them' pick. Presumably to take one of the current 3 WLBs roster spot.

    2. History. We've drafted a LB every season. It's a high volume, high turnover position. We have equal need here as we've ever had it. I don't see us straying away from form.

    3. Schneider's seal of approval. Typically, when Schneider speaks in his combine press conference, he's been atypically candid about his thoughts on the draft. Even if in generic terms. When he offers that he likes the LB group specifically -- I would take that seriously.

    Do I think we are going to take a WLB early? Maybe. Do I think these signing alter how we go into the draft. Yes. But I don't think the signings indicate completion. Rather I see these signings as giving us flexibility. We don't "HAVE" to take a WLB early. But I still think we do.

    None of these defensive signings make me think they are outright removing positions from their board. These are all bridge contracts. Hedge bets in case we can't sufficiently fill needs. The needs still remain. 3 tech. WLB. LEO. These are all positions that could use a long term solution. These signings simply dull the urgency. Which means we don't HAVE to take them right away. But we'll still likely take them somewhere.
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  • kigenzun wrote:Agreed. :D
    However, no longer being fooled by an East Coast media bias of our "critical need to draft a WILL first thing Friday morning", and to get us all to finally stop thinking the same... i.e. "All we need is a new OLB in Rd2 and we're fine" mentality, I made a point in my final mock of NOT DRAFTING ANY LBs AT ALL. Not even at 242, where I take a NT instead (who i am aware will likely be gone btw), which is a "BUT BUT BUT...WHERE'S THE BEEF IN OUR RUN D??" jester pick.

    This is where kearly is a analysis genius and is 'identifying the true problem' of helping the offense, (especially for cap flexibility in 2014 and beyond) and weighting his draft accordingly. I wish we could get Ertz, and Swope too, which is why I posted here. Cuz yeah, nobody back east gets as deep as kearly for our team. Much much much props. Thus, my 'adjustments' are also weighted to help the offense, now, and especially in 2014.

    Personally, my whole world view on the state of the defense changed after we signed Cliff Avril AND Michael Bennett... and then especially after signing both Antoine Winfield AND Kam Chancellor. I mean that's basically 4 new starters, & all of em upgrades(!) because now that Kam Chancellor is locked in contractwise, he himself is a bigger, faster, better TE coverage skills, and more experienced big game hitter COMBINATION, than any of those projected rookie OLB such as Greene, Brown, Gooden, Jenkins, Dimanche etc etc anyways. And has a successful history of 'positional changes', cuz he's so football-smart that he used to be a ...wait for it... QB. So, why not let him get jiggy earning that cash BURYING Gore and FACEPLANTING Kaepernick on the read option! :thfight7:

    With these key signings, it's lookin like a 'whole new thang' on D... a futuristic 21st Century... cutting edge... flexible, blitzable, muti-layerable, customized, hybridized, for reals #1 Deal to me. :thirishdrinkers:

    For instance, right this second our basic 8 in the box (from L to R) might look like this:
    Winfield, Irvin/Bryant, Mebane, Wagner, Bennett, Avril, KJ, Chancellor
    with 3 Pro Bowlers (Sherman, Thomas, & Browner) holding down the back end.

    It could be argued that's 5 Pro Bowl defensive backs, a MLB, and 5 interlocking rushers/runstoppers. I don't know what to call it except... (if you know the song, sing along...) THIS IS %@#&$% AWESOME!!!

    Yet, being a natural people pleasing kind o guy...AAWolf... if you have to have a linebacker (...lest I give thee a brain tumor lol...) how about Rd. 5, pick 154, Korey Toomer, OLB, Idaho. Last year. Who now this year is a 2nd year practice squad vet who already knows our guys and our system.
    :P


    I like it. The modified nickel defense that you've envisioned eliminates the need for a traditional WLB with Winfeild and Chancellor sealing the run lanes and covering tight ends. But, as attyla pointed out, competition with KJ and even Wagner could be good in this system and I believe that we will sill be using a conventional 4-3 a lot, as we did last year, so a traditional WLB may be beneficial. This is because, if Winfeild and Chancelor are being blocked by TE's and OT's, then they might have more trouble disrupting the running game than a traditional WLB. However, as you observe, its not as glaring a need as I had thought with this modified cutting-edge defense.
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