JSeahawks wrote:If its a gimmick shouldn't you be able to stop it after you've seen it for 5 years? Imo, Chip Kelly is the best coach that any of my teams (Seahawks, Blazers, Ducks) have ever had, including Carroll and Holmgren.
You can be a gimmick and still be incredibly good at what you do. Chip Kelly recruited players purely for speed then built a system that exploited college level athletes. That's a gimmick- but who cares- because he was a genius at enacting it.
I kind of view RG3 the same way. He (and his Baylor offense) similarly exploited college level athletes, running an offense that was brainless and theoretically easy to stop but simply required NFL level talent to keep up with- which most college teams don't have. Now Kaepernick is doing it in SF, (as is Mariota at Oregon).
Maybe Kelly, RG3, and Kaepernick will hit a wall at some point, but it won't be until the NFL finds a way to get even more athletic than it already is. And that may never happen. Seattle is already there, but building a defense like Seattle's is really hard to do and there just aren't enough pure athletes right now for more than a few teams to pull it off. That's why we saw an unprecedented emphasis on athleticism during the 2013 draft. Quite a few players went WAY higher than they should have based on their tape.
I think Carroll is the best coach of the group you described. He had recruiting advantages in Southern California, and it's true that he's more old fashioned compared to Kelly who is more cutting edge. But his USC teams were dominant and without weaknesses. Now he's building quite possibly the best roster in the history of the NFL. I'd put him on the same tier as guys like Bill Walsh, and it won't be so daring to say that when Seattle has 2-4 rings a decade from now.
I think Kelly is going to be a great NFL coach, but we need to see how much of what he does translates first. I think his read option scheme will make the jump just fine, even most NFL teams struggle with it right now. What I am a little more cautious about is his talent evaluation, turning 3 star recruits into star players (based on athleticism exploitation) is a bit different than turning 5th round picks into all-pros. Maybe he'll do both, but I am still in wait and see mode in that respect.