Phil Emery says late round QBs not worth the pick

Trrrroy · May 4, 2014

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... arterbacks

He points out that no quarterbacks past the third round have become long term starters since 2006. Says starters are drafted in the first two rounds, and that 2012 was an exception.

Hawk Finn · May 4, 2014

He's not necessarily wrong.

hawknation2014 · May 4, 2014

He's right to the extent that it's always very difficult to find a starting QB; therefore, it is inherently unlikely that a great QB prospect will fall out of the first two rounds. But this assumes that a player has to be a starter to have value. Getting a decent backup QB on a cheap four-year contract is worth it for a lot of teams. And if he plays well, the backup QB might accrue trade value, like when the Patriots flipped 7th Rounder Matt Cassel into an extra 2nd Round pick.

Russell Wilson is the best young QB in the league today. Nick Foles, another 3rd Rounder, had the highest QB rating in the league last season. Mike Glennon, yet another 3rd Rounder, was probably the best rookie QB. Kirk Cousins, a 4th Rounder, outplayed RGIII. Glennon and Cousins may eventually have some trade value for their respective teams, and in the meantime, they are capable backups on the cheap.

Of course, not every QB picked in the 6th Round is going to turn into Tom Brady. But in many situations, it's safer to take a QB in the later rounds than to waste a First or Second Round pick on a bust. I would rather take a chance on a Taj Boyd or James Franklin in the 6th Round than spend a high draft pick on someone like Derek Carr.

ImTheScientist · May 4, 2014

hawknation2014":2bb3cqhm said:
He's right to the extent that it's always very difficult to find a starting QB; therefore, it is inherently unlikely that a great QB prospect will fall out of the first two rounds. But this assumes that a player has to be a starter to have value. Getting a decent backup QB on a cheap four-year contract is worth it for a lot of teams. And if he plays well, the backup QB might accrue trade value, like when the Patriots flipped 7th Rounder Matt Cassel into an extra 2nd Round pick.

Russell Wilson is the best young QB in the league today. Nick Foles, another 3rd Rounder, had the highest QB rating in the league last season. Mike Glennon, yet another 3rd Rounder, was probably the best rookie QB. Kirk Cousins, a 4th Rounder, outplayed RGIII. Glennon and Cousins may eventually have some trade value for their respective teams, and in the meantime, they are capable backups on the cheap.

Of course, not every QB picked in the 6th Round is going to turn into Tom Brady. But in many situations, it's safer to take a QB in the later rounds than to waste a First or Second Round pick on a bust. I would rather take a chance on a Taj Boyd or James Franklin in the 6th Round than spend a high draft pick on someone like Derek Carr.

He specifically said after the third round. The only player you mention that fits his criteria is Cousins and he hasn't proven anything.

kearly · May 4, 2014

I kind of agree with him, in the sense that I think developing a raw QB into a good starter might as well be a myth. The guys who were late round successes were usually very polished QBs in college.

That said, there are a lot of QBs who succeed or fail depending on whether they landed with the right kind of team or not, and that's just as true for early picks as it is for guys who get picked later on.

I've seen quite a few talented QBs bust because they never get a real opportunity either. Alex Smith is an extreme example, but look at how long of a rope he had and he eventually became a slightly above average QB. I see a lot of guys who would probably be at least as good as Alex Smith if handled properly and given enough time to learn from mistakes.

hawknation2014 · May 4, 2014

ImTheScientist":18oz206u said:
He specifically said after the third round. The only player you mention that fits his criteria is Cousins and he hasn't proven anything.

I was specifically responding to this statement: "Most of the starters in this league come from the first and second round," Emery continued. "So that's where you NEED to take a quarterback. So when you talk about quarterback every year, they have to be somebody that you truly believe will beat out the second and third quarterback that you perceive on your roster. And if not, history shows that you shouldn't make that pick."

What if what you need is a quality backup on a cheap deal?

Too many teams bankrupt their future by reaching on a QB in the First and Second Round. 99% of the time, that's not the way to go at all.

chris98251 · May 4, 2014

When has he ever hit on a QB period?

Chicago has been void a star QB since McMahon, even then it was pretty short lived die to his concussion, before that?

Emery has nothing of note to give creedence to his philosophy from his experience in my opinion. In fact with the trend of QB's playing in more pro set offenses their are more that can be drafted and turn out like a 2012 draft.

Hasselbeck · May 5, 2014

chris98251":2k24k5cs said:
When has he ever hit on a QB period?

Chicago has been void a star QB since McMahon, even then it was pretty short lived die to his concussion, before that?

Emery has nothing of note to give creedence to his philosophy from his experience in my opinion. In fact with the trend of QB's playing in more pro set offenses their are more that can be drafted and turn out like a 2012 draft.

Cutler was playing very well under Trestman last year. I know he's extremely unlikable .. but he was playing good football before injuries derailed a lot of that.

pocketprotector · May 5, 2014

If every team adopted Pete Carroll's competition philosophy, many more late round quarterbacks would develop into solid starters. The problem is that these GM's and Coaches get fired so quickly in the NFL, they are terrified of looking like fools for starting a fifth round quarterback and thus a fifth round quarterback never gets a legitimate shot to compete for the starting gig.

Thank god for dipsh*t GM's like this guy, it creates a power vacuum in which out of the box thinkers like Pete and John can thrive.

Phil Emery says late round QBs not worth the pick

Trrrroy

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