Who are your bargains? Who were your mistake picks?

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  • It's just two weeks, but I figured I'd start a topic about bargains and busts. This topic is about players you DRAFTED that exceeded expectations and players you drafted that you would consider taking back in retrospect. Here are mine (from the two leagues I play in):

    Picks I really liked in retrospect were:

    Jordan Matthews (39th overall). The Eagles suck, and Matthews has a few drops. But he still gets points anyway.

    Amari Cooper (45th overall). I think he's going to be 95% of what a rookie AJ Green was a few years ago.

    Brandon Marshall (53rd overall). Fitzmagic has made his WRs look good in fantasy before, and Marshall is off to a strong start in 2015.

    Martavis Bryant (101st overall, 111th overall. Got him in both leagues). Can't wait for week 5. The Steelers offense is ridiculous right now.

    David Johnson (last pick, both leagues). Really glad I didn't chance him sitting on waiver wires.

    Picks that didn't work out like I hoped:

    Demarco Murray (18th overall). I still think he ends up a top 15 RB in standard because of receiving yards and TDs. But that Philly OL is garbage, holy shit.

    Frank Gore (29th overall). The sad part about this is that Gore actually looks faster than ever. I'll be patient with Gore, but the Colts offense looks like shit right now.

    Joseph Randle (58th overall). The hard thing about Fantasy Football is the balancing act between talent and situation. Randle's talent sucks, but his situation entering the season was sublime. It's kind of like owning Montee Ball last year.

    Nelson Agholor (98th overall). I thought Agholor was the most over-rated WR in the NFL draft this year, but he had a chance to be the #2 receiver on a really good offense. So far he only has 4 catches for 36 yards over two games out of 89 total pass attempts.

    Sam Bradford (141st overall). Bradford actually looked really good in the second half of the Falcons game, but he's been garbage otherwise. I hate to admit it, but I built my draft strategy at QB around getting him late.
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  • Exceeded so far:
    I took Amari Cooper in both my work and friends league relatively early because I think he and Derek Carr are gonna have a good season together.

    Carlos Hyde fell pretty far as well and I was lucky enough to scoop him up. We'll see if he can replicate week one this year with the 49ers falling behind quickly a lot.

    I got Brandon Marshall pretty late and he's been very solid. Not sure what'll happen when Geno is healthy again but man he looks like he did a few years ago.

    Andrew Luck - may just be he's had to go against two really good defenses to start the year, but for how early I've taken him, he's put me in a hole so far compared to taking Brady or Rodgers. I imagine once the division games start up he'll be back to 350 yard 3 TD games against awful defenses. We do a 2 QB league so I was hoping to take him and then Russ 2 rounds later but RW got snatched a couple picks before I could get him.

    Vincent Jackson:
    Meh, he's seeing passes his way and got a TD last week but I figured he would be a big threat with their new QB toy
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  • Bargain/Happy picks

    Antonio Brown and Julio Jones: Not exactly a bargain pick, but with a 1st/2nd rd pick, they are performing exactly how you need your top picks to play.

    Ryan Tannehill: The Dolphins are throwing it 40+ times a game and Tannehill looks in complete command of the offense. I'm expecting another quiet, top 10 fantasy year.

    Carlos Hyde: Still early, but he could be playing for a top 5 finish at RB.

    Jordan Reed: As long as he stays healthy and Kurt Cousins the starting QB Reeds been a solid TE performer off the waiver wire in 2 of my 3 leagues.

    Stevie Johnson: Another waiver pickup that's put up decent numbers in the last two weeks. He probably deserves more targets in that offense then there is to go around, though.

    Under performer:

    Ryan Matthews: I figured the Eagles running game would have enough success to split some carries, perhaps make Matthews a good flex option, but so far he's clearly behind Sproles in playtime.

    Sam Bradford: Total opposite of what he showed in the 3rd preseason game. That eagles offense needs to turn things around or I'm screwed in a couple of my leagues.

    Brandin Cooks: I wanted to stay away from Cooks leading up to my drafts, but I got caught up in the hype after a 100 yard+ preseason game and took a chance. So far, not very excited about his ability to be a weekly top fantasy WR.
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  • It was expected but I took Ellington over some decent WR and knew he was an injury risk. Managed to get Woodhead and Chris/David Johnson though so not so bad really.

    The biggest whiff on O so far has been Davante Adams, just traded him for John Brown last night.
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  • Personally, I would buy low on any Colts player. If you can trade for Luck, I would. I still like Gore to finish as a RB2. I thought he looked pretty good against a stout Jets front 7 on Monday Night Football. If he holds onto that ball, he has a very nice night. I'd probably pass on Andre Johnson, he just looked old and out of place on a new football team.

    I think the one guy that people are regretting will be LeVeon Bell. Yes he had a 2 game suspension, but if you were willing to pick up DeAngelo Williams you didn't miss a beat. If not for the suspension, he would have been the consensus #1 pick across most drafts. I saw him slip to about #6 or #7 in a lot of drafts.

    Jets DST has been a nice surprise. They look like the new Seahawks DST. I thought I would have to play matchups with them, but now they look matchup proof with maybe an exception for when they play NE.

    And whoever got stock in NE is happy. Brady, Gronk and Edelman have torn it up so far. Looks like Brady will be the #1 QB, Gronk will be the #1 TE, and Edelman looks like he's headed for a top 10 WR finish.
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  • 12-team, PPR.

    What I still feel okay about:

    Carlos Hyde - Top 8 RB by talent; SF being terrible is the only thing that can limit him.

    Keenan Allen - Brutal Week 2, but I still think he's on the verge of that elite receiver tier.

    Matt Ryan - I'm high on the Ryan/Shanahan connection.

    Jarvis Landry - 82nd overall. A steal, I think. One of the league's best kept secrets. He's Miami's best player on offense, and they're obsessed with getting him the ball in any way imaginable.

    John Brown - 106th overall. He hasn't broken out yet, but I still think he's the most talented receiver on a good ARI offense. Only a matter of time.

    David Johnson - 111th overall, dropped after W1. Ultimately, I still think this was a brilliant pick, but our league only allows a 4-man bench, and I dropped him for someone with immediate value. If we had a 5-man bench or IR spot, he'd still be on my team. The only thing that scared me is Arians slow-playing him like he did with Ellington and Brown. Arians needs to get out of his own way sometimes.

    Jets D/ST - Held firm and let them play against Indy. Great decision.

    Danny Woodhead with the last pick and Tyler Eifert in Free Agency.

    What hurt:

    Demarco Murray and Dez Bryant with my first two picks. I contend I'm blameless here due to how the draft fell, but yeesh. I'm very happy with my depth, but injuries at the top may end up killing me anyway.
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  • Really regret taking Alfred Morris over Carlos Hyde right now.
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  • Bargains

    Latavius Murray - 4th round
    I picked him up last year when Sparano finally realized how foolish and stubborn he was being for sticking with McFadden and MJD for so long. I really liked what he did once he started toting the rock. I read a stat that he hasn't been tackled for a loss so far this season. That's impressive.

    Ryan Tannehill - 7th round
    I knew I wanted Tannehill, and I got him. He's been a super solid QB so far. Let's see how he fares against the vaunted Bills this weekend

    Tyler Eifert - 13th round
    I did my research. I got my guy. I'm reaping the benefits. I like taking a TE's in the 5-6 rounds (I.E. Jordan Cameron in the 6th this year), and also nabbing a super sleeper TE in the later rounds. It always pays off. Here's my stone cold lock.....Barring injury, Eifert will be the second highest scoring TE in FF this year. Bank on it.

    Tyler Lockett - 14th round
    Maybe I'm a homer, but i knew he'd be a steal. Especially since my league is gets 1 point for every 10 return yards


    Keenan Allen - 5th round
    Maybe, maybe not. But this seems exactly like last year. Week 1, 3 points. Week 2, 2 points. Week 3, 19 points (with no TDs). Week 4, 4 points. Ugh. I like him a lot, but i probably should've learned my lesson last year. And getting Amari a few rounds later kinda makes Keenan expendable

    Tevin Coleman - 9th round
    I always like to get a rookie RB who is slated for an immediate impact. After reading up on him a bit more, I realized I got the wrong guy. Plus he had that hammy injury that kept him out of TC. I dropped him for Matt Jones before week 1
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