2016 fantasy football ADP bargains

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp.php

It's early and things will change by late August, but here are some draft bargains that jump out at me:


Running Backs


#7 overall. David Johnson
#13 overall. Jamaal Charles
#18 overall. Eddie Lacy
#22 overall. Thomas Rawls
#48 overall. Dion Lewis


As much as it pains me to say it, Arizona's schedule is a piece of cake. That means that barring an epidemic slate of injuries, you can probably pencil them in for another 13 win season. This means a LOT of touches for David Johnson. Johnson is for me at least arguably the #1 RB of 2016 for fantasy when factoring upside and how safe the pick is. He's basically what Matt Forte used to be. Getting him at #7 is a great way to start a draft.

Jamaal Charles proved last year that he is still Jamaal Charles. He might be the best RB in football when healthy, but can't really be trusted to play 16 games. I think Charles is a steal here because even if he gets injured, his handcuff RBs have been dynamite.

Lacy has never been quite as good as his rep, but he's slimmed down this year and the Packers offense is likely set for a historically great season. I feel very confident about Lacy ending the year as a #1 fantasy RB and middle 2nd round is a great value for that.

Fears about Rawls are dropping him way too much. Todd Gurley is currently the #3 pick, and I'd rather have a healthy Rawls over Gurley. My only real concern about Rawls is that he might lose goal line carries to Alex Collins.

The only thing better than a productive player is a consistent one. Dion Lewis was incredibly efficient at producing 10+ point games last season. For the price of a #3 RB, he's a huge steal.


Wide Receivers


#15 overall. Allen Robinson
#16 overall. Jordy Nelson
#26 overall. Brandon Marshall
#42 overall. Randall Cobb
#47 overall. Doug Baldwin
#87 overall. Steve Smith
#89 overall. DeSean Jackson
#185 overall. Chris Hogan


I get that Jacksonville did a lot of stat padding last season, and that Blake Bortles isn't as good as his fantasy numbers. I get that. But Allen Robinson is an elite WR and having him 10 spots below OBJ and Julio Jones seems like terrific value to me. At worst, he's comparable to DeAndre Hopkins, who like Beckham and Jones ranks in the top 10 picks. With Robinson, you are are getting a 1st round value in round 2.

Jordy isn't quite the bargain that he's been in the past, but that's mostly because WRs are going higher in 2016 than ever before. Still, you look at teams who have the NFL's easiest schedules, and they tend to go on to have monster years. The Panthers last year. The Falcons in 2012. The Patriots in 2007. The Packers have the kind of offense that feasts on bad teams, and they have the easiest sched in the land this year. Jordy will end the year as a top 5 WR in all likelihood.

Brandon Marshall in round three? Sign me up. Granted, the only reason Marshall is this low is because Fitzmagic is still a free agent. Once Fitz signs back, Marshall will probably rise into the teens. Until then, he's an amazing value in the early 3rd round.

Randall Cobb. Yup, he's over-rated and yup he sucked last year. But with the Packers offense sure to go on a tear this year, even over-rated talents like Cobb will post big seasons.

Doug Baldwin. It seems that fantasy drafters are a little slow to buy into the hype with Seattle's new passing offense. Take advantage of it.

With guys like Martavis Bryant on suspension and breakout WRs seemingly nowhere to be found, the late rounds of 2016 look barren. One of the exceptions is Steve Smith, who looked like he still had it early in 2015 before his injury. The Ravens are one of 2016's most obvious bounce back teams, and Smith seems like a safe bet to post starting WR numbers. Basically, if Smith stays healthy you are getting a huge steal with this pick.

Every time I've drafted DeSean Jackson I've regretted it. Even when he's good, he's super inconsistent. That said, he seemed to develop real chemistry with Cousins last season and that makes Jackson a good bet to go over 1000 yards in 2016.

The very late rounds might as well be printed on toilet paper. Most of the guys drafted after round 10 will be hitting waiver wire before the end of September. That said, if there were one player to hold on to from this group, it's Hogan. Belichick has a bit of a history now with taking unheralded 'gritty' WRs from other teams and turning them into massively productive players. New England has been waiting for a guy to step up as a #2 WR for some time and Hogan is a more reliable player than Amendola. Also, Brady is going to be playing pissed off this year. Hogan won't pay off immediately, but by the back half of the season don't be surprised if he's a startable player.


Quarterbacks


#35 overall. Aaron Rodgers
#57 overall. Russell Wilson
#60 overall. Big Ben
#68 overall. Tom Brady
#81 overall. Carson Palmer


This might be the best year yet for QB value. Rodgers is definitely the guy to get, as he faces the NFL's easiest schedule and has an offense that has never been healthier or in better physical shape. You don't have to be a genius to see Rodgers 2016 MVP award coming a mile away. He's going to post monster numbers this year, if he stays healthy.

Wilson is also an MVP candidate, and is a safer bet to stay healthy. The only thing holding back Wilson is that he will probably throw 100 fewer pass attempts over the season than some of his contemporaries, but on a per attempt basis he will likely be the best QB of 2016. A very safe pick if you want to take a QB early.

Big Ben is injury prone, but he's never led a better offense than this one. If he stays healthy he could be a difference making pick at the end of round 5.

Tom Brady *might* miss four games this year depending on his legal strategy. Even if he does, he'll probably still be a monster QB in the other 12 games he'll suit up for. Brady is the kind of QB who plays even better when he's pissed, and right now he's pissed.

Injury risk is important as always for Palmer, but a favorable schedule and an offense that is clicking could make Palmer an MVP also-ran by season's end. It's pretty crazy that you could get a legit MVP candidate with the 81st pick.


Tight ends


#59 overall. Tyler Eifert
#72 overall. Delanie Walker
#88 overall. Ladarius Green
#91 overall. Gary Barnidge


Eifert is the one guy on this list I might regret drafting. His numbers in 2015 were fluky as hell. Most than half of his career 1097 receiving yards over 3 NFL seasons came last year, and 13 of his 15 career TDs came last year. Prior to 2015, he was producing at a Luke Willson type level. So obviously, his Gronk-esque 2015 season seems a bit out of place. That said, Eifert passed the eyeball test with flying colors both in college and during his breakout 2015 season. I suspect that Cincy is going to construct their 2016 game plan around getting the ball to Eifert a lot more, and not just in the red zone. He's only a bargain if he hits his potential, but it should be mentioned that Eifert's potential is second only to the Gronk. This is a risky pick (especially since Eifert is recovering from ankle surgery), but it's also a pick that could get you 2-3 extra wins this season if it pans out.

Walker is no spring chicken, but he's coming off of back to back 800+ yard seasons. Last year he quietly finished 5th among tight ends for scoring, and was only 7 points behind second place Jordan Reed. For a pick this late, it's really hard to argue with a consistent and under-rated starter.

Jared Cook and Ladarius Green are two athletic and talented TEs that are moving to new teams with elite QBs. Even though I love the Packers offense this year, I won't trust Cook until he proves he can play in the NFL. With Green, his QB is only a minor upgrade, however when Green was with San Diego Philip Rivers just never seemed to click with him. Big Ben is missing both Martavis Bryant (suspension) and Heath Miller (retirement), so there's going to be plenty of targets to spread around to his remaining weapons. This is a risky pick but one worth considering especially if Green slips past round 8.

Like Eifert, Barnidge's 2015 season was a complete anomaly. That said, as a Barnidge owner last year I was so impressed with his consistency week to week, even as the Browns trotted out a different starting QB each week. It didn't seem to matter to Barnidge. There's actually seem decent value in the 8th round to compete with Barnidge, but I still like this as a value pick.

Great stuff as always Kearly. Where do you predict Lockett going?

ADP has Lockett going at the end of the 7th round. I'm actually going to avoid him this year, as he had just 31 catches for 411 yards and 5 TDs over the second half of the year, and that was during a historic Wilson hot streak that probably won't repeat itself for 16 games in 2016, not to mention he'll be competing with Richardson and Graham now. I'm guessing he'll end this next year with 700 yards and 6 TDs. Not really a guy I want on my fantasy team. Great player, but I don't think he's going to get enough volume for fantasy purposes.

Baldwin is a bit different because late last year he became Wilson's go-to guy and finished the second half of the season on a 94 catch pace. Graham and Richardson will cut into those catch totals, but I still think Baldwin could get 80 catches this year. I think Lockett will end up with 50-60.

Now if Baldwin gets injured and I have Lockett deep on my bench, I'm starting him. But I probably wouldn't consider Lockett until he becomes available during the season on waivers, which will probably happen at some point this year in most leagues.

Another player I'd keep an eye on who isn't even being drafted is Kennett Dixon for Baltimore. The Ravens have had a lot of injuries and a lot of shifting around at RB in recent years, and in my opinion Dixon is going to be a star for them some day. I won't draft him, but as soon as I hear any rumors about Dixon getting a shot, I'm going to make sure I have him on my waiver add list that week.

Great post Kearly, I will also add my 2 cents to the discussion, although I'm using my ADP figures fromhttps://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/overall.php

Running Backs:

David Johnson: Love the talent, but Arians and ARZ reporters have mentioned a possible 60% usage rate with 30% going to CJ2K and 10% to Ellington. 60% is a little low for an RB1, and if they are playing a weak schedule and playing with a big lead, i fear that he may be pulled from games in the 4th quarter.

Lamar Miller 17th overall: Bill O'Brien loves to pound the rock, as they have finished in the top 5 in rushing attempts in the last 2 years. Brock Osweiler will need time to adjust to a new offence and I believe they will lean heavily on Miller who was inexplicably an under-utilized weapon in Miami. Miller also plays 6 games against Tenn, Jacksonville and Indy all of whom do not boast formidable run d's. I am ecstatic to get miller in the middle of the 2nd round if he is available at his ADP17.

Jeremy Hill 53rd overall: A colossal disappointment in 2015, Hill's value has plummeted to ADP 53, which is a 5th round pick. Cinci has lost Marvin Jones, Sanu, and Eifert is on the mend, so Hill figures to be prominently figured. If the OC has realized that Hill does not operate effectively out of Shotgun, and they can use him with Dalton under centre in a traditional i formation, I think Hill can be a great value, mostly in standard leagues though.

Chris Ivory 83rd overall: Everyone figures that Jacksonville will be a committee approach with Yeldon, Ivory ad Denard Robinson, but I believe Ivory will get the touches that matter most near the goal line. Jags invested big in Ivory and if last year says anything, they view Yeldon as more of a finesse runner. If Ivory is there in round 7-8, he may well outperform his draft slot.

Frank Gore 73rd overall: Was overrated last year at an ADP in the 35-40 range, but a down year for the colts Off has pushed down his value until the 7th round, and as an RB3 flex option, i believe a 1,000 yard season with 6-7 td's is realistic.

Bilal Powell 176th overall: Jets signed Forte, who will be the lead back, but is also 31 and may not be able to shoulder the same load as his younger years. Gio Bernard is a similar player, but Bernard costs you a 7th round pick, while powell can be had in the 13-14th round

Denadre Washington 240th overall: Late round target, Raiders were not happy with the development of Latavius Murry last year, but surprisingly invested little into the position. With the signing of Osmele, along with bringing back Penn, raiders have the o-line to dominate the LOS, if Murry falters, Washington may turn out to be a late round steal.



WR's:


AJ Green 12th overall: Figures to absorb many of the lost targets from Sanu, Marvin Jones and a hurting Eifert, and the complimentary pieces around him (Lafell and the 2nd round pick out of Pitt) leave a lot to be desired, I can definitely make a case for him in the top 6 of the draft drafted ahead of Dez and Hopkins


Emmanuel Sanders 67th overall: I like contract year players, receives similar amounts of targets as DT and is much more efficient in the red zone than DT, yet he can be selected 3-4 rounds later than DT. I don't love the QB situation in Denver, but I believe Sanders can be a high upside WR2.

Corey Coleman 113th overall: I rarely like to make projections for rookies, but Coleman seems to be in a position to be a target magnet. Hue Jackson will create packages to get the ball to Coleman and Cleveland will be playing from behind often, so I'm willing to gamble on Coleman as a high upside WR4

Tyler Lockett: 93rd overall: I will disagree with Kearly here, Lockett is one of my must have's in draft's this year, with me targeting him in round 9 in a standard 12 man league. He was the 3rd receiver last year, i believe he will cut deeply into Kearse's opportunities and with an entire offseason with Russ and more familiarity with the playbook, I'm projecting for a big sophomore leap for Lockett, dare I say Antonio Brown Lite


TE's

Gary Barnidge: 76th overall: I will feel better about Barnidge if McCown starts, but he still produced with other Qb's last year. People are writing him off as a 1 year wonder, but i see him as a late bloomer and a nice mid-range TE1

Julius Thomas: 100th overall: Thomas' 1st year was marred by injuries that started before the season started and affected him throughout. Im expecting Thomas to maintain high TD number in this offence, taking opps away from Allan Hurns.

Martellus Bennett 156th overall: If you miss out on TE's early, Bennett may present tremendous value in late rounds. Brady gave Scott Chandler decent numbers, and Chandler is not even in the same league as Bennett, I can see Bennett having a hernandez impact with Pats.

Antonio Gates: 120th overall: Seems like he lumbers around now at his age, but Rivers peppers Keenan Allen and Gates with targets, and Gates finds a way to get things done, although I would want some insurance against a Gates Injury.



QB's

Wilson: 40th overall: I don't like taking QB's early, but if the 2nd half of last year in an indication of things to come, Wilson figures to have a great year, and I would expect his rushing TD's to increase from last year.


Eli Manning 95th overall: Played very well with Ben Mcadoo last year, and with Cruz back and Sterling Sheppard in the fold, it more than makes up for losing Reuben Randle, I would expect 4000 yards and 32+ TD's, which is great for a 9th round QB

Philip Rivers 103rd overall: Plays in a tough division in the AFC West, but figures to have good game script playing from behind, and they have little running game, so they will be passing a ton to pad his stats.

I'm not too worried about Johnson's workload, Arians is just cautious with young players, he will cede more and more touches over time, just like he did last year. Last year Johnson spent most of the year as #2 or #3 RB and finished the season top 10 in fantasy points scored.

I'm generally wary of new RBs, whether they are rookies or free agents who just switched teams. They have to basically learn the position all over again in a new offense and usually require a year or two to be good, if they are ever good. I feel this way about receivers too, for the most part. Brandon Marshall was the exception that proved the rule last year, and I was lucky enough to draft him. Ivory and Forte are semi-tempting but I would consider them only if nothing else leaped out at me. There are always exceptions, but the track record of new players is generally not very good.

Good call on Washington and Sanders. The first is under the radar and the second is just under-rated. I'm surprised Martellus Bennett is going so late. If Antonio Gates stays healthy he's a bargain. Any time you want to take an injury prone QB or TE you have to be willing to double up on your roster. If you are fine with a TE on your bench, then get Gates and try to nab another value TE in the draft like Barnidge to pair with him.

I think Rivers is going to bounce back in a big way this year, but there are so many other QBs I like a lot more. If somehow I miss all the MVP candidate QBs, I'd consider Rivers as a late round value. Or, if I went Rodgers/Palmer/Big Ben/Romo early and felt nervous about trusting their health, Rivers would make a good late round backup.

If David Johnson gets 60% of the carries, that pretty good in todays NFL. Here is a graph a fellow FF player did.

The graph is a little bit misleading, because it doesn't take into account games missed due to injury, suspension or a player not starting. For example, Todd Gurley did not take over as starter until week 4 and missed his week 17 game to turf toe, and as such, his usage % drops accordingly. Same with Deangelo Williams, Lesean McCoy, Jonathan Stewart, Matt Forte etc. I just feel that when you are spending a first round pick on a rb, you want to be sure to get a bell cow that will be getting the ball the majority of the time.

Not a thing misleading about the graph, it gives you the raw numbers. Figuring in injuries, suspensions, etc, is up to those who use the graph. Also you have to figure that some teams run the ball much more then other., so that makes a difference also.
Getting back to David Johnson, 60% of the carries would be pretty good. Barring injuries he will be a FF stud, especially in PPR leagues, IMO.

Looking at raw numbers does not tell the whole story; you made a point by looking at the graph that a 60% utilization rate among rb's is good based on how many top back's achieved similar numbers, but many of the top back's missed games, were suspended or were not starting for a number of games, and had those players played in those games, you would see that 60% falls a little bit under the desired rate for a premium running back. When selecting David Johnson, a player that I love in the 1st, you have to evaluate him vs LeVeon Bell, Todd Gurley, AP, Ezekiel Elliott and Lamar Miller as RB's with 1st round consideration. Of those players, i see Johnson no better than 4th in terms of how many touches he will get. Whether or not he can make more out of his opportunities remains to be seen, but I value opportunity above talent when picking in the 1st round. Not attacking your post, just giving my perspective.

Potential touches matter. However you need to consider other variables . Age for example, AP has been a FF stud, but he's 31 and had a heavy work load last year. Does he continue being as good as last year? Injuries, Bell has me worried. I don't know if I want to bank on his health. Yet both of these players will get picked ahead of Johnson, I rather get Johnson at pick 7-10 and then get a higher pick in the second round.

Matt Jones - I think right now you can get him in the 4th-6th rounds depending on your league. Last year I targeted Ivory and Latavius Murray in most my drafts, and Jones seems to fit their same mold. He finally gets the backfield to himself with Morris gone. If he can play well, he should get one of the biggest workloads in the league. He may lose some 3rd down snaps to Thompson, but Jones excels in the passing games as well. I'm hoping to end up with him as my FLEX, because I think he can put up RB2 numbers.

CJ Anderson - Kubiak's RB's always excel. Yes I know he didn't do well last year, but Kubiak had to adapt his offense to Peyton Manning in the shotgun. CJA came on strong in the second half, this is his backfield. I think he finishes as a RB1 and has similar numbers to his 2014-2015 season.

Randall Cobb - His ADP has dropped quite a bit because of last years season. I expect everyone on GB to return to form. With Jordy back, Randall can move back to the slot and he will benefit a lot from Jordy.

Jordy Nelson - See Randall Cobb above! He will be a WR1 as long as he stays healthy. Typically, players respond well from the ACL injury.

Josh Gordon - I hate to put him on here, but he is a top 10 talent. If he still remembers how to play, he is going to put up WR1 numbers. The Browns will be awful, meaning a ton of garbage time points. Owning talented WR's on bad teams is the best thing ever. Don't forget him and RG3 played together in college so they already have chemistry.

I'm not going to list every QB, but I feel like QB's are finally getting taken where they are suppose to be taken. In the past, the top QB's used to go in the first 3 rounds. Now QB's aren't being drafted til the 4th round. I think Cam or Rodgers is worth a 3rd or 4th round pick. I'm not saying I will do it, but I definitely wouldn't shake my head at anyone who does. Ben, Palmer and Brees in the mid to late rounds will be great picks. Brady will be worth the gamble. Just find a QB with a very favorable schedule for the first four games.

I'm staying the hell away from the Redskins running game right now, but I completely agree with the rest of the list. I think Anderson will see his numbers drop some since Manning isn't there to audible him into favorable runs, but in terms of talent and system Anderson is still a solid starting RB. I'd feel just fine taking him where he's currently going in the late 3rd.

Cobb is risky but I think after round 3 there is such a big dropoff in talent that it's worth taking home run swings, and Cobb is a home run swing.

I really wish Nelson were going lower, but I love me some Jordy. He's one of my favorite fantasy players of all time. I've drafted him in countless drafts over the years.

Like Jordy, I wish Gordon were going just a bit lower. There are some high end #3 WRs still on the board alongside Gordon, and I see Gordon as more of a bench and stash guy. For example, Allen Hurns finished #14th in scoring last year, and Crabtree finished #19. Both are available around the same ADP as Gordon. So it's really hard for me to pass on guys like those for a complete lottery ticket. If Gordon slipped into the 9th or 10th round I would take him for sure. That's where I took Gordon in the 2013 draft sensing his breakout year was coming. But the 8th round just feels a bit rich considering how good some of the remaining receivers are at that point. 8th round is where he's been going in my mock drafts.

BTW I think I'm cooling on David Johnson. I think he'll still end the year as a top 10 RB, but I think his inside the tackles rushing issues will come to the forefront this year and it's possible that he could lose significant reps to Chris Johnson by the time the fantasy playoffs start. Also, I generally don't like that David Johnson's fantasy production has been dependent on the big play. Same thing with Todd Gurley.