overvalued 2016 fantasy players by ADP

As a complimentary piece to Kearly's bargains, I decided to look into players that I feel will not provide value for their respective draft slot. Keep in mind that I like a lot of the players on this list, i just feel that there is a disconnect between their current ADP's and what i feel they will contribute

QB

Cam Newton # 22 overall

Blake Bortles #73

Tony Romo #95

Andy Dalton: #119


Cam Newton benefitted from the easiest strength of schedule last year and I am betting that his high rushing TD's suffer regression from last year, but he will no doubt put up pretty good numbers, just not what I expect from my 2nd round pick.

Bottles put up monster numbers last year due to playing from behind so often, and this year, with a revamped defence and running game, his numbers will take a hit and there will be better options at his current ADP

Romo has well documented injury concerns and Dallas knows this. Their team is now built to pound the rock and handoff to Ezekiel Elliott, McFadden and Alfred Morris as many times as possible, putting downward pressure on Romo's numbers. Romo does not cost much in the ninth round, but I prefer Rivers or Eli Manning over him at this point.

Dalton lost a tremendous amount of weapons this year with Sanu in Atl, Marvin Jones in Det, Eifert hurt again, and his replacements seem inferior to what he had last year. I am betting for Dalton's numbers to revert back to 2014 Dalton as opposed to his great 2015 numbers prior to injury.




RB:

Todd Gurley: 4th Overall

Devonta Freeman 14th overall

Doug Martin 19th overall

Jonathan Stewart 45th overall



I love Gurley's talent, just not the supporting cast around him. It remains to be seen if Goff can make opposing defences respect the pass, but with a weak receiving core and mediocre o-line, I'm betting that Gurley will be facing 8-9 man front often, and like last year, will have too many stat lines that read 22 rushes for 41 yards and 0 td's. STL also brings in Benny Cunningham on 3rd downs often.

Freeman had a truly dominating 4-5 game stretch last year, but fizzled out after that. His career YPC is still a pedestrian 3.5YPC and of his 32 game career, 95% of his production happened in that short stretch, I want to see to believe before counting on Freeman as my RB1.

Doug Martin just got paid after a great 2015 season; I am reluctant to trust him again given how Martin handled success after his rookie year with 2 mostly ineffective years after. Charles Simms presence also reduces Martin's value to me.

Jonathan Stewart put up pretty good numbers last year, but he simply doesn't get the RZ opportunities that I want in an rb2 with Cam, Tolbert etc stealing carries inside the 5. His medical history also is concerning


WR's

Dez Bryant 11th overall
Amari Cooper 26th overall
Demaryius Thomas 32nd overall
Kelvin Benjamin 36th overall
Larry Fitzgerald 62nd overall

As I stated above, i believe that Cowboys turn to a run based offence and as such will limit Bryant's ceiling. He is however the main viable asking game target with Witten fading and terrance Williams not really posing much of a threat. For those reasons and his continued foot and ankle issues, I am selecting AJ Green, Hopkins, Allen Robinson and perhaps Jordy Nelson ahead of Bryant.

Amari Cooper had an up and down rookie year, with some highlight reel grabs, but also had huge issues with drops and went invisible in several week. David Carr has a nice report with Crabtree, Seth Roberts and Clive Walford, so I see Cooper as more of a streaky WR2

D-Thomas has for the last 2 seasons been one of the least efficient WR's in converting red zone opportunities, and hi situation is not likely to improve. I feel that Sanders and Thomas will put up similar stats, but Sanders will last 3-4 rounds later, and Sanders uses a lot of underneath routes which will be less affected by the QB change in Denver.

Kelvin Benjamin had great raw numbers as a rookie before missing 2015 with an ACL. His injury shouldve had ample time to heal, but what is of concern to me is how a high % of his TD's in 2014 came with his team trailing by 14+ points in garbage time. Devin Funchness had a great end of his 1st year and costs much less the Benjamin, and for my money, id prefer Funchness in the 13th round than Benjamin in round 3-4.

Larry Fitzgerald had a blazing hot start to 2015 when most thought his career was coming to an end, and his ADP is up as a result. Fitz's last 7 games are more of what I would expect from him going forward with so many other mouths to feed in ARZ.


TE's

Jordan Reed 39th overall

Greg Olsen 44th overall


I expect great seasons from both players, but spending a late 3rd or early 4th round pick on a TE is a big investment. Reed had an amazing stretch with Cousins, but also has a very shaky injury history. History suggests that his TD% of his catches will likely see a regression as well.

I immediately jumped on Olsen last year when Benjamin went down for the year and I was rewarded for it. Olsen will see a drop in targets and his TD #s were never high so i feel he is in line for a season with 800-850 yards with 5-6 TD's, which are pretty good numbers, just not what I expect with such a premium pick

Good post..some good stuff in there. I disagree with some but thats natural but one I really have to object to is Dez Bryant. When Murray led the lead in rushing, Dez still had over 1300 yards receiving and 16 touchdowns. Before last season Dez had over 1200 yards receiving and over 10 tds for 3 straight years. Im thinking he gets back to that production, ESPECIALLY if he Cowboys have a run game again.

I agree on Dez. With a healthy Romo, a weak division and a running game to take some pressure off I think Dez has a monster year, especially in the red zone. double digit TD's is almost a lock for me.

Good topic. I agree with most, but feel tempted to play devil's advocate on a few.

Tony Romo and Andy Dalton. Even when healthy, Romo usually doesn't get the volume he needs to achieve ultra-elite fantasy status. However, he's shown over and over and over that when healthy he's a borderline top five fantasy producer. Dallas' schedule is one of the most favorable defensively in the entire NFL, and their rookie RB has a realistic chance to open things up the way DeMarco Murray did in 2014.

Dalton will decline almost certainly this season thanks to the departure of Hue Jackson. But what if he doesn't? What if last year was more about development than scheme? Despite being a defensive team with talent at RB, Dalton tends to get pretty good passing volume, and is no stranger to high finishes in fantasy. I'm expecting him to decline, but for a super late pick, he's worth getting as a second quarterback for a two QB strategy just in case.

Todd Gurley. 4th overall does feel high, but this is more about scarcity than merit. There aren't a ton of workhorse backs these days. Gurley is one of the safest RB picks, especially with a rookie QB that will likely be a game manager for the first few years. At some point in the next few years the Rams are going to transition to being a team known more for their offense. If that happens ahead of schedule in 2016, then Gurley owners are going to strike it rich. But even if it doesn't, Gurley is a super safe top 5 RB with a solid chance to end up at #1.

Demaryius Thomas. Is Thomas still in his prime? Maybe he isn't, but if we think he is, then I actually consider him a nice get in the late 3rd. Thomas has produced with bad QBs before. He even produced with Tim Tebow.

Jordan Reed. Some fantasy podcasters have pegged Reed in the fourth round as the drafts biggest BARGAIN. The logic being that Reed actually averaged more fantasy points per game last season than Gronk did, and Gronk is a consensus 1st round pick the past few years. The injuries are a very obvious concern and most fantasy owners don't love carrying two TEs. But if you get lucky with Reed's health, his double digit points from what is typically the lowest scoring spot on most fantasy rosters gives your team a huge competitive edge every Sunday.

Greg Olsen. Part of me agrees here. But I also think that Olsen is super dependable and very productive, a bit like what Jason Witten was years ago. Quickly after Olsen leaves the board, there is a plummet in the production level of the remaining TEs. The difference between taking a 4th round TE and a 6th round TE could be as much as 5 points a week, or worse if that risk you took on the Kelce's, Ertz's and ASJ's of the world fails to pay off. Most fantasy owners don't like carrying an extra TE on their bench so having a super dependable starter at TE that you can trust is extra nice.

Just in general, I am okay with reaching a little at TE for a good one. I have had phenomenal success the past few years getting top 15 RBs, WRs, QBs, kickers and defenses off of in-season free agency and waivers, but getting that stud TE off of the discard pile is a lot tougher due to the extreme scarcity at the position the past few years. If I can get a top TE at or around their ADP value during the draft, I don't feel the slightest bit bad about drafting them, because I know I can find that extra starter-worthy RB/WR later or during the season.