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Fantasy super sleepers

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Fantasy super sleepers
Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:16 pm
  • Who is your fantasy super sleeper? A player that is getting zero buzz and may not even be drafted, that you think could end the year top 30 at their position.

    Last year, I made sure to draft David Johnson with a late pick in both my drafts. It worked out pretty well for me, and it would have worked out REALLY well for me if Arians didn't have rookie-phobia.

    I felt like Johnson was remarkably obvious as a draft steal yet he got essentially zero pub before the season. There isn't any player I feel quite that emphatic about this year, but there are two that I really hope I can draft late in both of my leagues:

    RB Kenneth Dixon (BAL) and RB Jonathan Williams (BUF). Not only were they my two favorite value RBs in the NFL draft this year, but they landed in good situations. I feel like both of these guys are destined to be fantasy studs who go 1st/2nd round in future drafts once the current starters ahead of them move on.

    Dixon doesn't have to do much to beat out West, Allen, or Taliafero to earn the #2 job. Forsett is a good player, but he turns 31 this season, is undersized, and has a lengthy injury history. Baltimore is a team that likes to run the football. As much as I love Forsett, Dixon is probably the most talented RB currently on the Ravens roster.

    Someone who loves to run the ball even more is Rex Ryan. Buffalo led the NFL in rushing yards last season. LeSean McCoy showed that he still has ability, and backup RB Karlos Williams posted ridiculous production per carry. However, McCoy is pretty much always either injured or on the injury report, and Karlos Williams showed up for camp 20-25 pounds overweight AND got dinged for a 4 game suspension. Jonathan Williams hasn't even played a down, and you can already pencil him in to be the teams #2 RB for at least the first month if not longer. Many believe Karlos Williams' weight gain has already doomed him to a lost season.

    Add it all up, and you are a 29 year old RB injury away from seeing Jonathan Williams getting an amazing opportunity.

    These two are far from a sure bet, but both are likely to be available super late in fantasy drafts and each has a relatively good chance to be a massive breakout fantasy player this season.
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    kearly
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Re: Fantasy super sleepers
Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:54 pm
  • Alfred Morris - I had him last year on my squad and he did absolutely nothing and fell through the cracks this offseason. Behind that Dallas line, and sharing time with a half shirt wearing woman beater he might get more reps than first anticipated.

    Malcolm Mitchell, WR, Georgia (Patriots 4th rounder 2016) It just seems like the Patriots thing to take a late round pick, plug him in with Brady and he catches 60+ balls. Julian Edelman 2.0
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Re: Fantasy super sleepers
Thu Jul 28, 2016 7:18 pm
  • Here's another name to tuck away on that ultra sleeper list. Wendell Smallwood. Ryan Matthews is the starter in Philly, but the guy doesn't stay healthy. Smallwood is the early favorite to get 1st crack at the reps when Matthews is out.

    Matthews has been on the injury report 53 times since 2010. He just got put on for the 53rd time yesterday, and the Eagles training camp hasn't even started yet.
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Re: Fantasy super sleepers
Thu Jul 28, 2016 8:39 pm
  • I remember when Matthews was coming out of college, I wanted the Hawks to try to nab him. Boy I'm glad we didn't.
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Re: Fantasy super sleepers
Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:35 pm
  • I can't think of any "super" sleepers that I haven't heard discussed somewhere. I seem to have a bit different perspective on what a sleeper is than whats been thrown out so far though. I don't really consider a sleeper to be a player that requires an injury to someone ahead of them on the depth chart to be relevant. Anyways, looking at my draft values, here's some that I like a lot more than their very low ($0-2) projected auction draft price tag:

    Devin Funchess - CAR, WR
    Phillip Dorsett - IND, WR
    Theo Riddick - DET, RB
    Tevin Coleman - ATL, RB
    Jordan Cameron - MIA, TE
    Eric Ebron - DET, TE
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Re: Fantasy super sleepers
Fri Jul 29, 2016 5:38 pm
  • Bryce84 wrote:I can't think of any "super" sleepers that I haven't heard discussed somewhere. I seem to have a bit different perspective on what a sleeper is than whats been thrown out so far though. I don't really consider a sleeper to be a player that requires an injury to someone ahead of them on the depth chart to be relevant. Anyways, looking at my draft values, here's some that I like a lot more than their very low ($0-2) projected auction draft price tag:

    Devin Funchess - CAR, WR
    Phillip Dorsett - IND, WR
    Theo Riddick - DET, RB
    Tevin Coleman - ATL, RB
    Jordan Cameron - MIA, TE
    Eric Ebron - DET, TE


    I define "Super sleeper" as (in retrospect) a player we all say a year later was one of the biggest steals of the draft. Typically even bad starters are drafted fairly early, so the biggest draft bargains are usually the ones that are unearthed after an injury clears the way for them.

    I make a killing every year by getting players that started the year as depth chart guys. Last year it was players like David Johnson, Travis Benjamin, Devonta Freeman (Coleman was the preseason favorite to start), Thomas Rawls, etc. It seems crazy now, but I actually got David Johnson with my final draft pick in both of my fantasy drafts last year (12 man).

    Starters can be super sleepers too if they are super low profile players without a history of production. Gary Barnidge fit that bill last year.

    Funchess is getting a lot of hype right now. I think he's just a guy but then again Cam isn't very picky about his receivers and Funchess is a big target. I'm not disrespecting him but I just think he's the kind of player I want other people to pick so that another good player falls an extra spot in the draft.

    Dorsett is very interesting. I'm with you on that one despite how badly his rookie season went. Indy is moving to a 3 WR staple this year, with Dorsett being the 3rd receiver. He's going to see the field way more often and it seems reasonable to think that Indy's passing offense is going to put up big numbers this year. Dorsett isn't a stud per se, but all he needs to be is the AFC's John Brown and he's a good value where he's going.

    Riddick isn't a bad pick, but I'm thinking that the Detroit RB situation is so up in the air right now. It wouldn't shock me if they have a full blown committee between Riddick, Abdullah, and Zenner all season. I'm going to be watching their preseason pretty close. If they do decide on one back, the Riddick should be the current leader in the clubhouse.

    With Coleman, I think Freeman caught lightning in a bottle last year. The Falcons OL is improving, but I think that was more about Freeman having a fluky year than the Falcons becoming a good running team. I actually drafted Freeman last year because I've always thought he had untapped potential, but even I never thought he'd have a monster half-season like that.

    With Cameron and Ebron, I think they are fine as a bottom barrel starting TE, but I could probably find better on waivers/FA at some point during the season. I've had both on my roster several times and was always left underwhelmed despite their talent. Maybe Cameron gets a nice boost from Adam Gase, otherwise I see him as a bounce-back season guy.
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Re: Fantasy super sleepers
Fri Jul 29, 2016 8:38 pm
  • kearly wrote:I define "Super sleeper" as (in retrospect) a player we all say a year later was one of the biggest steals of the draft. Typically even bad starters are drafted fairly early, so the biggest draft bargains are usually the ones that are unearthed after an injury clears the way for them.

    I make a killing every year by getting players that started the year as depth chart guys. Last year it was players like David Johnson, Travis Benjamin, Devonta Freeman (Coleman was the preseason favorite to start), Thomas Rawls, etc. It seems crazy now, but I actually got David Johnson with my final draft pick in both of my fantasy drafts last year (12 man).

    Starters can be super sleepers too if they are super low profile players without a history of production. Gary Barnidge fit that bill last year.


    Ahh, I got ya. You must be in a 12+ team league. I've been in a 10 team league for the past 10 years or so and I've never had a draft where I felt I needed to dig that deep to fill out my squad. We did expand the starters/roster a little this year though so maybe that'll change in the future.

    Funchess is getting a lot of hype right now. I think he's just a guy but then again Cam isn't very picky about his receivers and Funchess is a big target. I'm not disrespecting him but I just think he's the kind of player I want other people to pick so that another good player falls an extra spot in the draft.

    Dorsett is very interesting. I'm with you on that one despite how badly his rookie season went. Indy is moving to a 3 WR staple this year, with Dorsett being the 3rd receiver. He's going to see the field way more often and it seems reasonable to think that Indy's passing offense is going to put up big numbers this year. Dorsett isn't a stud per se, but all he needs to be is the AFC's John Brown and he's a good value where he's going.

    Riddick isn't a bad pick, but I'm thinking that the Detroit RB situation is so up in the air right now. It wouldn't shock me if they have a full blown committee between Riddick, Abdullah, and Zenner all season. I'm going to be watching their preseason pretty close. If they do decide on one back, the Riddick should be the current leader in the clubhouse.

    With Coleman, I think Freeman caught lightning in a bottle last year. The Falcons OL is improving, but I think that was more about Freeman having a fluky year than the Falcons becoming a good running team. I actually drafted Freeman last year because I've always thought he had untapped potential, but even I never thought he'd have a monster half-season like that.

    With Cameron and Ebron, I think they are fine as a bottom barrel starting TE, but I could probably find better on waivers/FA at some point during the season. I've had both on my roster several times and was always left underwhelmed despite their talent. Maybe Cameron gets a nice boost from Adam Gase, otherwise I see him as a bounce-back season guy.


    I have no expectation that any of these will set the world on fire, but for $1-2 I'm more than happy to pick them up and expect a reasonable return. They're all in very good situations to produce, for the most part. Riddick probably has the lowest ceiling given that he's purely a receiving back, but he really thrives in that role and without Calvin there I suspect he'll be utilized a lot.
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Re: Fantasy super sleepers
Sat Jul 30, 2016 12:51 pm
  • Bryce84 wrote:Ahh, I got ya. You must be in a 12+ team league. I've been in a 10 team league for the past 10 years or so and I've never had a draft where I felt I needed to dig that deep to fill out my squad. We did expand the starters/roster a little this year though so maybe that'll change in the future.


    I've done a lot of 10s in the past and you are right, it's a different type of dynamic. It's fun in a way because a good fantasy player in 10 man leagues can put together RIDICULOUS teams. I even did an 8 man league one time and by the end of the year I had a 300 point lead on second place. 10 man isn't a bad way to go, it's certainly a less frustrating format than the larger leagues are.

    The one thing I like about 12 man format is that they typically have 6 playoff spots with a bye, whereas most 10s have 4 playoff spots with no bye. So oddly I feel safer from bad luck in a 12 man league, though I've had more frustrating cuts/waiver battles in 12s.

    Bryce84 wrote:I have no expectation that any of these will set the world on fire, but for $1-2 I'm more than happy to pick them up and expect a reasonable return. They're all in very good situations to produce, for the most part. Riddick probably has the lowest ceiling given that he's purely a receiving back, but he really thrives in that role and without Calvin there I suspect he'll be utilized a lot.


    I think you are on to something with Dorsett. I'll be targeting him in the late rounds for sure. Maybe Riddick as well depending on how the next month goes.
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Re: Fantasy super sleepers
Sat Aug 13, 2016 11:14 am
  • Coby Fleener. Brees loves his TE's. Last year Benjamin Watson was a top 10 TE. If Fleener stays healthy, he should be a top 10 TE.
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Re: Fantasy super sleepers
Sun Aug 14, 2016 5:13 pm
  • How about Jimmy Graham? Anyone feeling his upside if he starts week one.
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Re: Fantasy super sleepers
Sun Aug 14, 2016 8:24 pm
  • getnasty wrote:How about Jimmy Graham? Anyone feeling his upside if he starts week one.


    He fits in the category of guys who likely won't be ready til well after week 1. Those guys are always a gamble, but I usually like to stash those type of guys. I wouldn't mind having either Graham or Josh Gordon on my teams. Those guys won't help you early on in the season, but they'll certainly help out down the stretch of the season and playoffs.
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Re: Fantasy super sleepers
Tue Aug 16, 2016 1:03 am
  • getnasty wrote:How about Jimmy Graham? Anyone feeling his upside if he starts week one.


    I see Graham pretty much the same way I saw Julius Thomas last year. Thomas was coming off a bad injury and ended up missing time to start the season. There were also major questions about how Thomas fit into the offense. I drafted Thomas last year as part of a two TE strategy and ultimately I ended up trading him during the season for not all that much.

    I want to draft Graham because he's so cheap, but I have a hunch that I'll get what I pay for, and doing so would essentially force me to spend two roster spots on TE, which is a kick in the nuts.

    It's not a bad move it's just a question about how you feel about your bench. My benches kick ass every year and I treat every spot like it's gold plated. I've lost perfect seasons because I cut players right before they went off (CJ Anderson, Devonta Freeman, David Johnson, etc). The more I play fantasy the more I feel it is essential to maximize my bench. And that usually means avoiding two QB / two TE when possible.
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Re: Fantasy super sleepers
Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:51 am
  • Here a sleeper for you, Tajae Sharpe. Rookie 5th round for Tennessee Titians. He's battling for a starting spot, think he'll surprise a lot of folks. I'm in a 16 team dynasty league with deep rosters, you got to dig deep in this league. Another player is going to start on the other side of him, that I also consider a sleeper, Rishard Matthews. A free agent signee formerly a Dolphin.
    One last sleeper, Virgil Green . TE for the Broncos.
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