What to think of second round RB's?

I've been messing around with different mock drafts and strategies lately. Pretty much I've come to the conclusion that, personally, I'm not a fan of the zero RB strategy. Maybe I'm old fashioned, but I'm just not comfortable with Jonathan Stewart, Carlos Hyde, or worse as my #1 RB starting the season.

Ideally, I'm leaving the draft with David Johnson, Adrian Peterson, or Ezekiel Elliot as my first pick. But if I miss out on those guys, there's Lamar Miller, Rawls, Doug Martin, Devonta Freeman, and Mark Ingram left as the only viable options in round two.

Rawls is easily my favorite of that group, but that may only be because I'm biased. He's custom built for this offense. Rookie additions or not, if he stays healthy he'll produce top 10 fantasy numbers. Lamar Miller I really want to like but I keep getting stuck on the fact he's on a new team. Doug Martin is Doug Martin. Talented but hard to trust. The news coming out of the Bucs camp is promising, though. Freeman I'm going to avoid like the plague. Coleman is talented. Wouldn't be surprised if he ends up stealing the #1 role quite early in the season for Atlanta. I'll be targeting him late. I've been burned too many times by Ingram in the past to draft him now. May not be logical of me, but I just can't draft him unless he falls.

So right now, the only RB's I'd be willing to take in round two are Rawls, Miller, and Martin. In that order for now, but I may flip Miller and Martin. Thoughts?

I don't get the zero RB strategy personally. It's fine to lead off a draft WR-WR, but the zero RB strategy is typically defined as avoiding RB until rounds 5 or 6. That's just nuts. It's a lot easier to find WRs after the early rounds than it is to find good RBs. And during the season itself, it's far easier to find a viable starting WR than it is to find a viable starting RB.

If you want to build a 120 point a week mega-team, then you need to hunt for players that give you positional advantage. The scarcer the elite player, the bigger the dropoff to his competition, the bigger the advantage you will have for owning that player.

For as great as Julio Jones and Antonio Brown were last season, posting some of the best WR seasons in history, they actually had a smaller gap in their performance compared to their 12th best WR peer than Cam Newton had to the 12th best QB, Devonta Freeman had to the 12th best RB, and Gronk had to the 12th best TE.

WR's are safe picks, but there are so many good ones that it's hard to separate your fantasy team from the others even if you have an amazing receiver corps because pretty much everyone has good receivers in this day and age.

Le'Veon Bell, Jammal Charles, and Thomas Rawls are risky, but they are championship roster players if healthy. I love this upcoming fantasy season because the drafting climate is so risk-averse, it makes the king-maker players with higher risk even bigger bargains than before.

(On the subject of Mark Ingram. I've always been a fan of his even before his breakout season in 2014. He's just a very good all-around football player and he happens to play in an amazing fantasy football offense. His receptions went up quite a lot last year even though his carries dropped. I feel like he is by far the safest of the 2nd tier RBs, and if he falls to me at good value I wouldn't think twice about drafting him. His backup, Tim Hightower, is one of the most over-rated talents in fantasy but gets good numbers because the situation is that good. Even if Engram gets hurt, Hightower is a productive handcuff.)

I went back and looked at Ingram's stats these last couple years. I think you have a solid point about him. I took him his first couple years in the league and got burnt badly. Avoided him ever since. May need to re-evaluate. What's funny is he's always impressed me when I've seen him play. Just naturally talented it seems.

On Bell, I just don't know if I can pull the trigger with a 4 game suspension looming. That's a huge chunk of the fantasy season, and added to his injury history it just a lot of risk. I'm not usually risk averse, but with him I'm torn. It'll probably depend on how many drinks I have before the draft starts.

A guy I do think I may take a few picks higher than he should go is Lesean McCoy. He's going to put up numbers in that offense and there is nobody behind him right now. He's going third round in most mocks which is a steal IMO.

I'm in a 14 team league and draft 14/15, I'm having the same problem with pulling the trigger on any of the RB's falling to me in mocks. I keep seeing Freeman, Charles, Bell and Ingram, and Martin and if I had to draft today I think I'm going Bell with the plan of overdrafting DeAngelo Williams later to start the season. Matt Jones is a guy I think I'm gonna try to target as well, I think that offense is gonna be pretty good and he should get the load of the carries. I also like Shady like you said but only if the values there he just can't make it through a season without injury. What are people thoughts on Lacy? He's also another option out there.

I'd be more likely to get Bell in a 14. Depth is shallow, getting a potential #1 overall back at 14 is huge, IMO. The risk is worth the reward in deeper leagues.

Trrrroy":2h1wl829 said:

On Bell, I just don't know if I can pull the trigger with a 4 game suspension looming. That's a huge chunk of the fantasy season, and added to his injury history it just a lot of risk. I'm not usually risk averse, but with him I'm torn. It'll probably depend on how many drinks I have before the draft starts.

Click to expand...

From what I hear the Steelers organization is extremely confident that Bell will have his suspension reduced. Even if it isn't, Bell is worth it assuming that I also draft his handcuff, DeAngelo Williams. Williams would make an excellent starter weeks 1-4. And when the playoffs come, I want difference makers on my roster. If I could get Bell late in the 1st I would be ecstatic.

Trrrroy":2h1wl829 said:

A guy I do think I may take a few picks higher than he should go is Lesean McCoy. He's going to put up numbers in that offense and there is nobody behind him right now. He's going third round in most mocks which is a steal IMO.

Click to expand...

McCoy was hurt most of last season and is already nursing an injury in training camp. He's 29 years old, the same age Marshawn was last year.

I would love to have McCoy on my team but the risk feels so high that I probably wouldn't draft him until the late 3rd round, and he'll probably be long gone by then. If their rookie RB Williams has a decent preseason I'll be drafting him late for sure, whether i have McCoy on my team or not.

If McCoy heals up by the end of the preseason, I'll bump him up a round.

It's kind of funny how this is the year of the WR in fantasy drafts, yet it's RBs that have me drooling this year. It's not a great group of fantasy RBs, but there are so many good values at RB particularly in rounds 2-3 that it's pretty insane to me that anyone would do a zero RB strategy this year.

McCoy and Jamaal Charles are sorta in the same boat. Both are talented RB's coming off injuries entering their age 29 seasons and both are in great situations. If they can stay healthy they're going to put up numbers. I'd be willing to take either in the third, maybe even late second. Charles more likely tham McCoy. The upside is huge.

Mainly I am reacting to the fact that Charles is 100% healthy at this moment and McCoy is not. Charles also has 344 fewer carries in his career than McCoy does, so in 'dog years' they are not the same age. Lastly, I think Charles is a slam dunk to finish #1 in fantasy this year if he stays healthy for 15+ games (something he's done in six of his eight seasons). I think McCoy can finish top 5 if healthy, but I trust his current health less and I think his total upside is less. Yes, Charles has blown out his knee a couple times, but it's also true that Charles has the same physical measurables as Marshawn Lynch. He's not some scat back, and when he doesn't blow out his knee, he's a tank.

Lastly, while both RBs have murky handcuff situations, at least the Chiefs have two good ones. The Bills have Karlos Williams coming off a nightmare offseason and a mid-round rookie (who I like, but is still just a rookie).

If I miss on Charles in the 2nd I might consider McCoy in the 3rd. He's clearly a good value but I've pretty much already made up my mind that I am targeting Charles and I can't really take both since they have such heavy handcuff demands.

Solid points, Kearly. You have me re-thinking my RB rankings. Probably a good thing. I've had a pretty rough go when it comes to RB's lately. Took CJ Anderson and Forsett as my first two RB's in my main league last season. Ugh....

The no RB draft strategy makes no sense, I honestly think that is a strategy that very few people use. I wouldn't look too much into it. I'm an old school fantasy guy, I typically always take 2 RB's in the first 3 rounds.

As for the second round RB's, I'm not a huge fan of some of them. I'm not sure what to make of Eddie Lacy. Not sure I would want to touch him knowing Starks will always be looming in the background. I do think the Pack get back to their high powered offense, so he should have a ton of RZ opportunities.

I'm not even sure what to make of our own Thomas Rawls. The injury scares me a little, but if he stays healthy I think he finishes as a RB1.

I don't like Freeman at all this year. Not sure if he is a 1st or 2nd rounder, but he is due to come back down to earth. I think ATL goes with more of a RBBC with Coleman too.

While I like Doug Martin, I'm not a fan of taking a RB in the 2nd round who will only be on the field for about 60% of the snaps. Sims really cut into his load near the second half of the season.

I like Mark Ingram. He should be a solid bet for 18+ touches a game. I just worry about that defense not allowing them to run for 4 quarters.

The one guy I love is Lamar Miller. I'm not sure if he is a 1st or 2nd round pick, but I expect big things from him this year. He has little to no competition behind him. He should be a 3-down back. I think that Houston offense has a chance to be pretty good. And their good defense should allow them to run the ball for all 4 quarters and keep the ball on offense a lot.

I try to avoid Carolina RB's. No thanks to getting my TD's stolen by Tolbert and Cam.

Jamaal Charles is interesting. He is a top 5 talent, but how much do they trust him? He is coming off his second major injury of his career. While he may be fully healthy now, they have 2 other really good backs behind him. Why run him into the ground when you have two other guys you trust. I feel like Charles' days of getting 25+ touches a game are over. But he is the most talented back, so maybe I'm wrong.

CJ Anderson is a guy I really like. I don't get why his ADP is so low. Kubiak loves to run. RB's always excel under him. Last year CJA came on strong in the second half. I think he is in line for a big workload. I'd feel very comfortable with CJA as my RB2, and if he stays healthy I think he finishes as a RB1. With Peyton gone, Kubiak can finally run his offense.

These guys aren't 2nd round picks, but they really interest me: Matt Jones, Jeremy Langford, Carlos Hyde. I expect all three to be workhorses. At worst they should have really high floors based on their workload. Matt Jones has little to no competition for carries. It is his backfield to lose. But as we saw last year, he could fumble the opportunity away. He will be someone I'll likely gamble on as my FLEX. I've heard rumors of Langford ending up in a RBBC, but not sure I'm buying that. He really shined last year with Matt Forte, and even if he does lose snaps to the rookie Howard or Kadeem Carey, he should still get the goal-line carries. Hyde should put up big numbers if he can stay healthy. It is his backfield and Chip loves to run the ball. My main worry would be the Niners offense not being able to sustain drives, but based on volume, his floor should be at least 80 yards a game.

Lastly, Ryan Matthews is a guy that I can't put my finger on. DeMarco is now gone and it is his backfield to lose. He will likely lose passing downs to Sproles. Doug Pederson loves to run the ball. Can Ryan Matthews stay healthy is the big question. He's been in the league for a while now and is yet to break out. So he may just be who we thought he was. Matthews seems like a boom or bust type of guy.

Just my 2 cents but I think a couple of you might want to go back and consider where you are ranking Hyde, Matthews and Ingram. Ingram especially ..so under rated in fantasy.. Hyde and Matthews are in situations they should do well this year for owners.

Trrrroy":1t8m7p6y said:

Solid points, Kearly. You have me re-thinking my RB rankings. Probably a good thing. I've had a pretty rough go when it comes to RB's lately. Took CJ Anderson and Forsett as my first two RB's in my main league last season. Ugh....

Click to expand...

You know, I've done a bunch of 2016 fantasy draft simulations now and one thing really jumps out at me.

Pretty much every RB after round 3 is pretty terrible or is insanely risky.

In other words, committing two roster spots to handcuff RBs isn't all that crazy this year. So going for two handcuff required starters (McCoy being one of them) is actually a pretty good strategy this year.

Hawk-Lock":3fk886py said:

Jamaal Charles is interesting. He is a top 5 talent, but how much do they trust him? He is coming off his second major injury of his career. While he may be fully healthy now, they have 2 other really good backs behind him.

Click to expand...

Charles is the biggest steal in the draft this year IMO, especially if his handcuff is clearly defined. Ware is the current leader, and he's going pretty late in drafts. Even if Charles goes down I trust Ware to give top 10 production. West isn't bad either. I find myself taking Charles in every mock.

Alex Smith has a nasty case of redzone-itis, but his RBs sure don't. It's similar to how Bridgewater's ineptitude in the redzone helps AP put up huge fantasy numbers.

Running the numbers zero rb does make some sense but its still a strategy I don't use very often. I think the elte, bell cow rbs have the highest positional scarcity and I almost separate them from the rest of the rbs as a position by itself so I find myself targeting an elite RB, hammering away at WR in the middle rounds and then targeting rb's later for my rb 2 position. Not sure its the best route but I like it so far in mocks. I might go David Johnson in the 1st, then Allen, Watkins, Maclin, Floyd/Lockett in the middle rounds and then hopefully getting a couple from the Mathews, Duke J, Gio etc group.

I also like going WR in the 1st and then targeting Charles in the 2nd because I agree with Kearly I think he's a steal this year. I use mainly Yahoo and he is currently 22 in their rankings so he is easy to get in the 2nd round. I like one RB to anchor my team and then go from there. I can get that guy anywhere in the first 3 rounds usually but McCoy and Ingram are the last guys I trust in that role.

One of my leagues is yahoo. I've felt pretty giddy getting Charles at 12, getting him at 22 would be amazing.

FWIW, LeVeon Bell's suspension has been reduced from four games to three games.