Fun with draft simulations

kearly

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http://draftwizard.fantasypros.com/home.jsp

(You will be asked to register after 5 mock drafts. Registration is quick, free, and painless. They don't even ask to confirm email.)

This simulator has been pretty fun. It's not 100% realistic, but it is interesting in that I find myself drafting certain players over and over and over again because they keep falling to me at great spots.

Here's one mock I just completed, picking 12th in a 12 man (standard) league.

1.12 Jamaal Charles, KC. The best fantasy RB in the NFL when healthy.
2.1 Le'Veon Bell, PIT The other best RB in the NFL when playing.
3.12 Demaryius Thomas, DEN Even with QB issues, I think he can end as a top 12 WR.
4.1 Russell Wilson, SEA Possible MVP at QB.
5.12 Donte Moncrief, IND While the rest of Indy took a step back last year, Moncrief took a step forward.
6.1 Allen Hurns, JAC He reminds me of Darrell Jackson. Easy to underestimate, but he gets numbers.
7.12 DeAngelo Williams, PIT Obviously a must get for Bell owners.
8.1 Danny Woodhead, SD Always thrilled to have this guy as a bench RB, especially with Wisenhunt back.
9.12 Arizona Cardinals, ARI This is the one defense I find myself drafting EVERY time.
10.1 Travis Benjamin, SD Ranked 28th among WRs last year. Now has Rivers as #2 WR. High floor.
11.12 Spencer Ware, KC An obvious must get for Charles owners.
12.1 Phillip Dorsett, IND Colts are moving to a 3 WR offense. Dorsett is a former 1st round pick with speed.
13.12 Jimmy Graham, SEA Graham is touchdown dependent, but if he gets 700 yards and 7 TDs...
14.1 Steven Hauschka, SEA I would never get Hauschka so late in a real draft.
15.12 Dwayne Allen, IND Expanded role in 2016. Great in the red zone.

QB. Russell Wilson
RB. Jamaal Charles
RB. Le'Veon Bell
WR. Demaryius Thomas
WR. Donte Moncrief
WR. Allen Hurns
TE. Jimmy Graham
D/ST. Arizona Cardinals
K. Steven Hauschka

BN. RB DeAngelo Williams
BN. RB Danny Woodhead
BN. RB Spencer Ware
BN. WR Travis Benjamin
BN. WR Phillip Dorsett
BN. TE Dwayne Allen

My receiving corps may not look amazing currently, but it seems like every year I find at least a couple of top 30 WRs on waivers during the season so I've kind of leaned on that in my drafts.

I broke one of my rules in this draft, I drafted two TEs. That said, I drafted my first TE in the 13th round and I drafted my second one in the 15th. I only drafted a second one just in case Jimmy Graham isn't ready to go early in the season. Eric Ebron was also available but I figured I'd gamble on Dwayne Allen as he has an increased opportunity coming in what should be one of the NFL's bounceback offenses this year. I made it a point to invest fairly heavily in the Colts just in case Andrew Luck parties like it's 2014.

If the Colts do not bounce back in the first month of the season, then it's easy to cut a lot of these guys to make room for impact waiver-wire additions.

Overall, I've found that my favorite drafts this year are the ones that pick at the end of the first round and lead off with RB-RB, because the depth at WR is so much better even with the rush on the position this year.

What are some of your mocks like?
 

Hawk-Lock

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That's not a bad team at all. I agree that Demeryius Thomas has great value this year. As bad as Sanchez and the other QB's on Denver are, they can't be any worst than Peyton Manning. At least Sanchez can throw the ball more than 25 yards down field. I'd bank on DT having a better year than last year.

I like the idea of pairing LeVeon with DeAngelo. Yes you have to use two picks, but you are basically getting a top 5 RB all season (DeAngelo will be a top 5 RB for the first 4 games). I'm also a fan of taking Brady along with a QB who has a favorable schedule weeks 1-4.

I like Moncrief. ADP wise, I prefer him over TY Hilton. I think they both end up with similar numbers at the end of the season, yet you can get Moncrief about 2-3 rounds after Hilton.

Not a huge fan of Hurns. I think the Jags offense as a whole takes a step back in fantasy. The defense is better which will lead to less shootouts and less garbage points. Ivory should take a few TD's away. I always felt Hurns over-achieved. Allen Robinson on the other hand, he is the real deal. If Alllen Robinson were on the Cowboys or had a cooler name than "Allen Robinson," he would be a top 10 pick in every draft.

I think you can wait on QB, but I got no problem with you taking Russell in the 4th.
 
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kearly

kearly

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I've been taking Cousins in a ton of my drafts. According to this simulator, he's got a super-late round grade, which I think is completely insane. I think he's a top 10 lock with a solid chance to end up top 5.

I've only taken a QB early when the value was undeniable. Conveniently enough, that QB always seems to be Russell Wilson. I covet Rodgers this year, but the value in round 3 at other positions is too hard to pass up. A couple of other guys that I target but never get are Doug Baldwin and Kenneth Dixon.

By the time I took Hurns the best remaining WRs were guys like DeSean Jackson, Michael Crabtree, Travis Benjamin and Marvin Jones. I like them all, but Hurns definitely has the best track record the past two years of that group and I wanted a high floor player for my 3rd receiver since my first two WR picks were a bit risky. I had avoided Hurns in most of my mocks, but in this case I thought he made sense given the needs I had.

I take Marvin Jones constantly in these mocks. This might be the only one I didn't take him.
 

Hawk-Lock

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As an old-school fantasy-footballer, I almost always take a RB in the first round. And I always take at least two RB's in the first three rounds. After doing some mocks, I think I'm going to go WR in the first round, and then two RB's in rounds 2 and 3. Obviously that could change if AP or Gurley slips, but those are the only two RB's I'd feel comfortable taking in the first round. But if I can get one of the elite WR's to pair with either Ingram/Charles/Lamar Miller in the 2nd round, and then get CJ Anderson in the third round I'll be more than happy. I'll likely target Gore, Ryan Matthews, or Latavius as my FLEX in the middle rounds. I almost always use a RB as my FLEX.

Gore is starting to intrigue me the more I look at him. He looks like a solid bet for 17-20 touches a game. A lot of RZ looks. And I'd bet on the Colts offense returning to their high-powered form. Gore is going 2-3 rounds later than guys like Jonathan Stewart, Hyde, and Latavius. Are those guys really 2-3 rounds better than Gore? I don't think so. Gore has a ton of value based on his ADP.
 
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kearly

kearly

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My teams always finish with the worst draft grades and finish at or near the top in scoring every year. Going by ADP as a guide alone leads to a lot of landmine picks. You have to know how to navigate the draft to find the sleepers and avoid the landmines, and that means drafting with ADP as a loose guide but not something to be taken as gospel.

Or rather, if you want to draft a perfectly average team, draft the top ADP player every time. It's not a great way to win a league, but it will get you a 100 draft score at least.

Hawk-Lock":295d6j0l said:
As an old-school fantasy-footballer, I almost always take a RB in the first round. And I always take at least two RB's in the first three rounds.

For me I am always looking for value, and that means buying stocks when the price is down. This year, WR stock is way up, and RB stock is way down. So I'm buying RBs early this year as often as I can since some of the values at RB early in the draft are incredible.
 

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