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Best bargain at each position

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Best bargain at each position
Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:15 pm
  • Which player at each position do you consider to be the biggest ADP bargain at each spot? For the sake of clarity, I'm not talking about breakouts (e.g. Kenneth Dixon) or extreme bounceback guys (Josh Gordon), but players who have a bit of a history behind them and are a lock to see significant reps this year. Guys that are relatively safe, but are just undervalued for some reason. Here are mine:

    QB

    One QB strategy: Kirk Cousins, (ADP 112)

    Cousins was a force of nature for fantasy owners down the stretch last season, and he passed the eyeball test as well. While it was definitely a hot streak and he won't post historically good numbers in 2016 over a full season, it's very reasonable to see top 5 upside in him which makes him a potential league winner kind of pick at the end of your draft.

    Two QB strategy: Tom Brady (ADP 73) paired with Derek Carr (ADP 107)

    Brady has a great chance to be the NFL's best fantasy QB from weeks 5-16. He's going to be playing pissed off, and his weapons haven't been this good since the Welker/Gronk/Hernandez/Woodhead days, a year when the Patriots had one of the best offenses ever. You'll need a substitute in weeks 1-4 though. During those weeks, the Raiders face one of the NFL's easiest schedules and Carr is currently projected to be a starter worthy QB this season.

    RB

    Rashad Jennings (ADP 82)

    Last year Jennings quietly had a solid fantasy season (20th overall) for the Giants, and on a similar note, the Giants run blocking has quietly risen to competent level. Giants coaches have essentially admitted that TD vulture Andre Williams is a pretty sucky RB, and that Jennings will get the workload of a true #1 RB in 2016. Jennings is probably going to end up as a solid #2 RB this year yet he has the ADP of a #4 RB. He also passes the eyeball test way better than say Jeremy Langford or Latavius Murray, two backs that are going significantly earlier than Jennings is.

    Honorable mention goes to Danny Woodhead (ADP 81). He's been one of the best and safest #3 RBs in fantasy football for years, and you can get him in the 8th round every year it seems.

    WR

    Marvin Jones (ADP 79)

    I'm not here to tell you that Jones has the talent of a #2 fantasy WR, but I do think he's going to put up #2 fantasy production this year, and maybe even #1 production in PPR formats. Matt Stafford throws 600 passes or so almost every year, and you can probably pencil in 300-350 of those targets to go to Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. I think he could easily get to 1200 yards and 6 TDs with the number of targets he's going to get. Additionally, he has been Detroit's best looking receiver in camp, while Tate has been struggling some. Pretty much everyone close to the team is saying that Tate and Jones are receivers "1A and 1A." Basically, Jones value' is nearly identical to Tate's, and Tate is going in round 4, not round 8.

    TE

    Delanie Walker (ADP 71)

    Last year he finished tied for 4th place at TE alongside the heralded Greg Olsen. Entering 2016, Olsen is fending off the re-emergence of Kelvin Benjamin and the possible breakout of Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess. Walker is surrounded by a pile of crap at WR in Tennessee, and he has clearly emerged as Mariota's favorite target. Not to mention, Marcus Mariota has a wee bit more room for improvement on his 2015 season than Cam Newton does. Yet despite all these indicators pointing in Walker's favor, he's actually going 3 rounds later in the draft than Olsen is. I wouldn't call Walker a "steal", but he is safe, his upside is wildly under-rated, and he's a strong value that's worth targeting. My favorite part about targeting walker is that it easily allows me to load up on 2 stud RB 3 stud WR earlier in the draft while still getting an impact TE. Guys who draft Gronk, Reed, and Olsen in the early rounds can't say the same.

    DEF

    Arizona (ADP 151)

    They might have the best overall return game in the NFL, they have one of the NFL's best turnover forcing defenses, they just added sack-makers this offseason, and they play a favorable schedule that will have opponents chasing them and making mistakes. This is my pick for the #1 fantasy defense this year and it's also a unit with a very high floor.

    K

    Whoever you want, but I generally try to get Steven Hauschka every time I can.
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    kearly
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Re: Best bargain at each position
Sat Aug 20, 2016 10:45 am
  • I'm not sure who is best at each position, as I'm too lazy to look through every ADP, but here are a few I like:

    CJ Anderson (ADP 37) - Great value after he struggled last year. I expect him to produce RB1 numbers.

    Frank Gore (ADP 76) - He is a solid bet for 15-20 touches a game, and a good bet to stay healthy for all 16 games. People always talk about injury prone player in fantasy, but no one talks about the guys who never get hurt. He is a safe bet to put up RB2 numbers based on health and consistency. Also no competition in the Indy backfield.

    Tyrod Taylor (ADP 114) - He is so slept on. 4 years ago people would be all over him because he is a mobile QB. Now there are so many mobile QB's that he gets lost in the shuffle. His rushing yards gives him a high floor and he will give you a few big games.

    Marvin Jones (ADP 90) - Agree with Kearly. Wouldn't shock me if he outscores Tate, and you can get Jones a few rounds later.

    Travis Benjamin (ADP 127) - I like him even more now that Stevie Johnson is out for the season. Him and Keenan Allen are going to put up good numbers. A lot of targets to go around now that Stevie Johnson and Malcolm Floyd are out of the picture.

    Martellus Bennett (ADP 119) - I was expecting his ADP to be lower, like in the 70's or 80's. I figured everyone would over react to the fact he is now with the Patriots. I'm not sure how much yardage he will get, but he is going to get a lot of TD's and RZ looks. Based on ADP, ESPN has him as their 14th ranked TE. I don't see how you can take guys like Ertz, Witten, Thomas and Graham over him. He will finish as a top 10 TE. If Gronk ever goes down, he should be a top 3 TE.
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    Hawk-Lock
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Re: Best bargain at each position
Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:15 am
  • T.Y. Hilton has an ADP of 41, which is a steal IMO. He'll never be a TD machine, but with a healthy Luck he's a lock for 1200+ yards. Amari Cooper and Brandin Cooks are getting drafted well ahead of him. Hilton has a good chance to exceed both those guys production and at a better price.

    Gary Barnidge is getting drafted in the 90's. He's only ever had one good season, but his qb play can't get any worse than last season and Hue Jackson knows how to work with TE's. I'm going to be targeting him for sure.

    At running back I can't believe that Rawls is getting out of the second round. I think Christine michael's good play is scaring people off.

    Don't really have any at qb. Lots of good choices late. That said, I'll happily take Rodgers in the fourth.
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    Trrrroy
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Re: Best bargain at each position
Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:58 pm
  • Strongly agree on the Hilton, Barnidge, Rawls picks, they are all steals where they are going. I would jump at the chance to get Rodgers in the 4th but he never ever lasts that long in my drafts.

    I've drafted Travis Benjamin a few times late as a #4 with upside.

    I did a simulated draft on yahoo last night with 11 other people and I just missed on Carlos Hyde at the end of the 5th round, he went right in front of me. If he continues to slide into the 5th he's also one of the drafts bigger steals.
    Last edited by kearly on Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Best bargain at each position
Sun Aug 21, 2016 12:54 am
  • Some of mine have been mentioned already so it gives me a nice feeling of validation regarding them. Here's mine with auction values since I don't do snake drafts:

    QB:

    P. Rivers ($9 projected value)
    T. Taylor ($7 projected value)
    K. Cousins ($7 projected value)

    WR:

    M. Jones ($10 projected value)
    M. Crabtree ($8 projected value)
    C. Coleman ($4 projected value)
    D. Funchess ($2 projected value)

    RB:

    L. Murray ($23 projected value)
    M. Gordon ($13 projected value)
    R. Jennings ($8 projected value)
    J. Langford ($10 projected value)
    T. Yeldon ($1 projected value)

    TE: Not a lot that stand out as much as other position groups but here's what I got

    Z. Ertz ($7 projected value)
    V. Green ($0 projected value)
    W. Tye ($0 projected value)

    Not even going to bother listing K and DEF because between those two groups only SEA/DEN Defenses are valued more than $1.
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Re: Best bargain at each position
Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:53 pm
  • Kearly, you seem like a great source for fantasy knowledge. Would you go with Derrick Henry or Jay Ajayi as your final RB? I've been going back and forth on these two for awhile.
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Re: Best bargain at each position
Sun Aug 21, 2016 5:35 pm
  • Thepeelsessions wrote:Kearly, you seem like a great source for fantasy knowledge. Would you go with Derrick Henry or Jay Ajayi as your final RB? I've been going back and forth on these two for awhile.


    Thanks.

    Henry seems to get leg tackled way too easily and requires a lot of space to be good. He's like a more extreme version of DeMarco Murray. I loved him in college but I'm pretty skeptical of him in the NFL. That said, it seems like everyone else is skeptical too which has made Henry a very late pick. I very nearly drafted him in a mock draft with 11 other people when Henry fell to the 13th round. Murray is going to be their starting RB, but with a super late pick for Henry, why not?

    I loved Jay Ajayi in college but he hasn't looked as physically impressive in the NFL. I just don't think he's that good. I've been avoiding him. That plus the Dolphins run game has looked pretty bad all around this preseason, and they looked bad the past couple years when Lamar Miller was out. If Foster wins the starting job then I think Ajayi is going to see a lot of time on the free agent pile this year.
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Re: Best bargain at each position
Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:27 pm
  • kearly wrote:
    Thepeelsessions wrote:Kearly, you seem like a great source for fantasy knowledge. Would you go with Derrick Henry or Jay Ajayi as your final RB? I've been going back and forth on these two for awhile.


    Thanks.

    Henry seems to get leg tackled way too easily and requires a lot of space to be good. He's like a more extreme version of DeMarco Murray. I loved him in college but I'm pretty skeptical of him in the NFL. That said, it seems like everyone else is skeptical too which has made Henry a very late pick. I very nearly drafted him in a mock draft with 11 other people when Henry fell to the 13th round. Murray is going to be their starting RB, but with a super late pick for Henry, why not?

    I loved Jay Ajayi in college but he hasn't looked as physically impressive in the NFL. I just don't think he's that good. I've been avoiding him. That plus the Dolphins run game has looked pretty bad all around this preseason, and they looked bad the past couple years when Lamar Miller was out. If Foster wins the starting job then I think Ajayi is going to see a lot of time on the free agent pile this year.

    Sounds like you'd rather go with Henry? We just drafted on Friday night. Only 10 rounds though. The guys couldn't sit through 15 rounds on a Friday apparently. So last 5 spots are waiver pickups which will be in tomorrow.

    My RBs are Rawls, Latavius, Jeremy Hill, and Ajayi. I'm gunning for Cmike to handcuff, and have been second guessing Ajayi ever since.

    I'd like to add one more wideout too. Kevin White or Devante Parker? I've got AJ Green, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, and Josh Gordon. Took a gamble on Gordon in the 9th. We'll see. I'm leaning towards Parker.

    And am I crazy to gamble on Jameis as my backup behind Carr? I never draft two QBs, but I'm still a little uneasy about Carr.plus, the Jameis/Evans combo is intriguing.
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Re: Best bargain at each position
Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:41 pm
  • Thepeelsessions wrote:
    kearly wrote:
    Thepeelsessions wrote:Kearly, you seem like a great source for fantasy knowledge. Would you go with Derrick Henry or Jay Ajayi as your final RB? I've been going back and forth on these two for awhile.


    Thanks.

    Henry seems to get leg tackled way too easily and requires a lot of space to be good. He's like a more extreme version of DeMarco Murray. I loved him in college but I'm pretty skeptical of him in the NFL. That said, it seems like everyone else is skeptical too which has made Henry a very late pick. I very nearly drafted him in a mock draft with 11 other people when Henry fell to the 13th round. Murray is going to be their starting RB, but with a super late pick for Henry, why not?

    I loved Jay Ajayi in college but he hasn't looked as physically impressive in the NFL. I just don't think he's that good. I've been avoiding him. That plus the Dolphins run game has looked pretty bad all around this preseason, and they looked bad the past couple years when Lamar Miller was out. If Foster wins the starting job then I think Ajayi is going to see a lot of time on the free agent pile this year.

    Sounds like you'd rather go with Henry? We just drafted on Friday night. Only 10 rounds though. The guys couldn't sit through 15 rounds on a Friday apparently. So last 5 spots are waiver pickups which will be in tomorrow.

    My RBs are Rawls, Latavius, Jeremy Hill, and Ajayi. I'm gunning for Cmike to handcuff, and have been second guessing Ajayi ever since.

    I'd like to add one more wideout too. Kevin White or Devante Parker? I've got AJ Green, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, and Josh Gordon. Took a gamble on Gordon in the 9th. We'll see. I'm leaning towards Parker.

    And am I crazy to gamble on Jameis as my backup behind Carr? I never draft two QBs, but I'm still a little uneasy about Carr.plus, the Jameis/Evans combo is intriguing.


    Your WR corps is sick. Evans, AJ Green and Keenan Allen are all target hogs. All should get 10+ targets each game. Your RB's aren't the best, but they're solid. As a Jeremy Hill owner from last year, I wish you the best with him. I think Jameis will be a sneaky good play in fantasy this year. The type of guy you can spot start based on matchups. I like Devante Parker a lot. Usually WR's make big strides in their sophomore campaign. Here is a little blurb on Parker from ESPN's Matthew Berry:

    Parker outscored DeAndre Hopkins during the final six weeks of last season and now fully healthy, he's ready to play the "X" receiver in Miami, the same role as Demaryius Thomas and Alshon Jeffery played previously for new Dolphins head coach Adam Gase. You know, if you don't get on board, they take away our fantasy analyst secret decoder ring and everything.
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Re: Best bargain at each position
Sun Aug 21, 2016 6:52 pm
  • Hawk-Lock wrote:
    Thepeelsessions wrote:
    kearly wrote:
    Thepeelsessions wrote:Kearly, you seem like a great source for fantasy knowledge. Would you go with Derrick Henry or Jay Ajayi as your final RB? I've been going back and forth on these two for awhile.


    Thanks.

    Henry seems to get leg tackled way too easily and requires a lot of space to be good. He's like a more extreme version of DeMarco Murray. I loved him in college but I'm pretty skeptical of him in the NFL. That said, it seems like everyone else is skeptical too which has made Henry a very late pick. I very nearly drafted him in a mock draft with 11 other people when Henry fell to the 13th round. Murray is going to be their starting RB, but with a super late pick for Henry, why not?

    I loved Jay Ajayi in college but he hasn't looked as physically impressive in the NFL. I just don't think he's that good. I've been avoiding him. That plus the Dolphins run game has looked pretty bad all around this preseason, and they looked bad the past couple years when Lamar Miller was out. If Foster wins the starting job then I think Ajayi is going to see a lot of time on the free agent pile this year.

    Sounds like you'd rather go with Henry? We just drafted on Friday night. Only 10 rounds though. The guys couldn't sit through 15 rounds on a Friday apparently. So last 5 spots are waiver pickups which will be in tomorrow.

    My RBs are Rawls, Latavius, Jeremy Hill, and Ajayi. I'm gunning for Cmike to handcuff, and have been second guessing Ajayi ever since.

    I'd like to add one more wideout too. Kevin White or Devante Parker? I've got AJ Green, Mike Evans, Keenan Allen, and Josh Gordon. Took a gamble on Gordon in the 9th. We'll see. I'm leaning towards Parker.

    And am I crazy to gamble on Jameis as my backup behind Carr? I never draft two QBs, but I'm still a little uneasy about Carr.plus, the Jameis/Evans combo is intriguing.


    Your WR corps is sick. Evans, AJ Green and Keenan Allen are all target hogs. All should get 10+ targets each game. Your RB's aren't the best, but they're solid. As a Jeremy Hill owner from last year, I wish you the best with him. I think Jameis will be a sneaky good play in fantasy this year. The type of guy you can spot start based on matchups. I like Devante Parker a lot. Usually WR's make big strides in their sophomore campaign. Here is a little blurb on Parker from ESPN's Matthew Berry:

    Parker outscored DeAndre Hopkins during the final six weeks of last season and now fully healthy, he's ready to play the "X" receiver in Miami, the same role as Demaryius Thomas and Alshon Jeffery played previously for new Dolphins head coach Adam Gase. You know, if you don't get on board, they take away our fantasy analyst secret decoder ring and everything.

    You've sold me on Parker. I liked him early on last year, and waited for him. When he finally started getting targets, I didn't have a lot of room left to add him. He's now my first priority.

    I've had Hill the last two years, so I've seen him at his best and his worst. He's probably the biggest gamble (6th round). But I agree though, my RBs are definitely not great. At least I'm not the guy who's going with Matt Jones (injured) and Gio B as his first RBs drafted. Haha, I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks Jameis will be a dark horse this year.
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Re: Best bargain at each position
Sun Aug 21, 2016 7:24 pm
  • Parker lives and dies by the long ball. He's yet to record more than 5 catches in a game, and he's only caught five once. While it's true that he managed a deep reception in five of his last six games, that seems pretty flukey to me. I wouldn't feel great counting on him personally.

    I'm a Kevin White skeptic, but he is theoretically the most talented receiver on his team. Cutler is not an elite QB, but he's produced elite fantasy WRs. White's upside seems so much higher than Parker's, at least on paper.

    I think you are fine with 4 receivers since the group you have is pretty good. I think Gordon will be a good #4 WR at minimum if he manages to actually play.
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Re: Best bargain at each position
Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:05 pm
  • I've been targeting Kevin White. He's got upside and as late as he's going why not? He's an Alshon Jeffery injury away from being the #1 WR in an offense that can be kind to fantasy wideouts. And I have a feeling the Bears will be throwing the ball around quite a bit seeing as their runningbacks suck and that defense is suspect. He's my top sleeper pick this season.

    I think right now he's going in the 7th-9th round. Same place as guys like Hurns, Crabtree, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett and Sterling Shephard. I'm taking him over all those guys short of Hurns based on upside alone. And frankly, i think its a crime Hurns is getting drafted that low.
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