Recievers are flying off the board

kearly

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So, I've done two simulated mock drafts with 11 other participants on yahoo. The one theme that was constant in both drafts was that people were OBSESSED with drafting WRs, and not just early either. Even receivers with 8th round ADP were getting snatched up in round 6. It's like everyone is going for 6 WR rosters this year, it's out of control.

This makes for a very interesting dilemma for drafters who take two RBs in the first three rounds (which IMO is the smartest way to start this year). When you are hunting for your #2 and #3 WRs in rounds 4-6, you'll be forced to reach at WR, or you could pass on WR and take some terrific value at QB and TE, two positions that drafters are waiting on which increases their value.

Bottom line is, if you were hoping to snatch up a bunch of value WRs in rounds 7 and 8 like I was, your going to be in for a difficult draft, because almost every receiver is going higher than his listed ADP in my experience. That might mean you'll have to reach a little at WR in rounds 5-6, or it might mean drafting a value receiver you don't particularly believe in (I see Emmanuel Sanders and Larry Fitzgerald falling quite often).
 

haroldseattle

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kearly":3lobxegf said:
So, I've done two simulated mock drafts with 11 other participants on yahoo. The one theme that was constant in both drafts was that people were OBSESSED with drafting WRs, and not just early either. Even receivers with 8th round ADP were getting snatched up in round 6. It's like everyone is going for 6 WR rosters this year, it's out of control.

This makes for a very interesting dilemma for drafters who take two RBs in the first three rounds (which IMO is the smartest way to start this year). When you are hunting for your #2 and #3 WRs in rounds 4-6, you'll be forced to reach at WR, or you could pass on WR and take some terrific value at QB and TE, two positions that drafters are waiting on which increases their value.

Bottom line is, if you were hoping to snatch up a bunch of value WRs in rounds 7 and 8 like I was, your going to be in for a difficult draft, because almost every receiver is going higher than his listed ADP in my experience. That might mean you'll have to reach a little at WR in rounds 5-6, or it might mean drafting a value receiver you don't particularly believe in (I see Emmanuel Sanders and Larry Fitzgerald falling quite often).

Yup, it's the latest FF fad to value WRs over RBs. The theory is RBs are risky. Injuries, poor performance , etc, and WRs are seen as safer picks and better value especially in PPR leagues. They seem to think they can win going WR heavy and picking RBs that are ho-hum. I with you though, I'm getting my RBs early and take my chances on WRs. The way the draft has produced good WRs there are always going to be decent ones to be had, may not be the WR you were hoping to draft though.
 

Hawk-Lock

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I understand the recent trend of WR's over RB's:

- WR's are less injury prone than RB's
- More teams are going RBBC
- Teams are throwing more than ever

But I still can't get on board with the WR craze this year. I can understand WR's going early in the first couple rounds, but after that, most those WR's are pretty hit and miss. I agree that the stud WR's can been seen as being more dependable and consistent than the stud RB's. But I don't think that the mid round WR's are safter/smarter picks than the mid round RB's.

I'm still trying out different scenarios in my mocks. I'm starting to think I may just buck the trend and go RB heavy early. If I end up with my WR1 and WR2 being selected in rounds 4-6, I think I can get by. And it is way easier to find a WR2 in the late rounds, than say a RB2 in the late rounds. Good chance late picks like Marvin Jones, Travis Benjamin, Josh Gordon, etc. all pay off in the late rounds.

Just curious, Kearly, or anyone else, have you tried going RB in the first 3 rounds? If so, what do you think.
 
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kearly

kearly

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I'm taking 2 rb in the first 3 rounds. The dropoff in round 4 at rb is immense.

I get why people would load up on starting WRs early. What I don't get is people taking a 5th WR be before they take their 2nd rb. It's bad strategy and it hurts people like me that are trying to load up on mid round values.
 

Trrrroy

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I've been going RB in the first and second on most of my mocks, short of when I pick top three (usually go Julio Jones). Though, I've been seeing Rawls or McCoy sitting around in the third round and have really been tempted to go RB/RB/RB. May bite me in the ass, but I've been given it a lot of thought.
 
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kearly

kearly

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Trrrroy":h1n9ftoj said:
I've been going RB in the first and second on most of my mocks, short of when I pick top three (usually go Julio Jones). Though, I've been seeing Rawls or McCoy sitting around in the third round and have really been tempted to go RB/RB/RB. May bite me in the ass, but I've been given it a lot of thought.

Same here. I've gotten Julio at #3 and #4 quite a few times. I hate picking middle first, but when I do I target Peterson and Elliot. Late 1st I target Bell and Charles.
 

EverydayImRusselin

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I think there is such a clear gap between top end RBs and mid tier RBs now, that if a top RB is there you have to grab them. Otherwise you are going to be stockpiling on Langford, Gore, Mathews, Hyde kind of guys hoping they can get the touches needed to be average.
 
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kearly

kearly

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EverydayImRusselin":rfp1qqhz said:
I think there is such a clear gap between top end RBs and mid tier RBs now, that if a top RB is there you have to grab them. Otherwise you are going to be stockpiling on Langford, Gore, Mathews, Hyde kind of guys hoping they can get the touches needed to be average.

There might be a 200 point difference between a top RB and a 6th round RB this year.

I do like Hyde this year though. If I knew I could get him in the 4th or 5th, I would plan my draft around getting him there. Unfortunately he's all over the place, going early 3rd sometimes and going late 5th other times. And if I waited to take him in the 4th and someone else beat me to the punch, there'd be nobody else left to draft who's worth the pick at RB. Hard to plan around a player like that. He's worth targeting in an auction though for sure.

After this year is over people will be talking about how insane it is that there are so many teams with two of Bell/AP/Zeke/Charles out there. Any other year that you could start your draft that way, you'd pinch yourself.
 

Hawk-Lock

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kearly":16frck50 said:
EverydayImRusselin":16frck50 said:
I think there is such a clear gap between top end RBs and mid tier RBs now, that if a top RB is there you have to grab them. Otherwise you are going to be stockpiling on Langford, Gore, Mathews, Hyde kind of guys hoping they can get the touches needed to be average.

There might be a 200 point difference between a top RB and a 6th round RB this year.

I do like Hyde this year though. If I knew I could get him in the 4th or 5th, I would plan my draft around getting him there. Unfortunately he's all over the place, going early 3rd sometimes and going late 5th other times. And if I waited to take him in the 4th and someone else beat me to the punch, there'd be nobody else left to draft who's worth the pick at RB. Hard to plan around a player like that. He's worth targeting in an auction though for sure.

After this year is over people will be talking about how insane it is that there are so many teams with two of Bell/AP/Zeke/Charles out there. Any other year that you could start your draft that way, you'd pinch yourself.

I'm iffy on Hyde. There is a side of me that really wants to draft him, but also a side of me that wants to avoid him. He has a lot going in his favor (Chip's system, Chip loves to run, not much competition in the backfield), but then I look at his schedule and get worried. Not only does SF have to play the divisional teams, but they also play the Panthers, Bills, Patriots and Jets. His early schedule is about as unfavorable as it gets. I'm not as concerned as some people are about his injuries, but I can understand why people would be worried about his ability to stay healthy.
 
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kearly

kearly

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Last year was horrible for the niners, but even during that season Hyde was on pace for ~1150 total yards and 7 TDs. Their new offense looks WAY better running the ball, and Kelly has a long history of putting up numbers in the rushing attack. They also improved their OL substantially this offseason, including the return of Anthony Davis after taking a year off.

If Hyde stays healthy I think he can end up around 1100-1500 total yards with 5-10 TDs. I also really like his handcuff, Davis.

I just wish I knew for a fact that I could get him in round 4. If I could, I'd target him for sure. But I feel really nervous leaving round 3 without two RBs this year. And while Hyde is probably worth a round 3 pick, I wouldn't take him over guys like Anderson or McCoy who are pretty much always available in round 3.
 

Hawk-Lock

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I think you're spot on with Hyde, his schedule just scares the sh!t out of me. I think you're right though, only way I would target him would be as my FLEX in the 4th rounder.

He may be a good buy-low guy if he starts out slow. His first six games are about as tough as it can get:

vs Rams
@ Panthers
@ Seahawks
vs Cowboys
vs Cardinals
@ Bills
 

Hawk-Lock

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Anyone know where I can find WR target percentage? For instance, Doug Baldwin got __% of Russell Wilson's targets last season. I've found sites with total targets, but I'm curious about target percentage. Kearly, I thought I saw you mention something about Mike Evans target % being really high. Can you point me in the right direction?
 
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