Need help with fantasy football

My wife and I got talked into being in a league this year. It's something that never appealed to me but we are giving it a go. Here is the problem...

I am out on the boat and won't be able attend the draft. My wife Jen will have to draft for us.

What stragity should I advise her to use to pick players? Should she just take the highest ranked players? She doesn't follow non seahawks and I barely do either.

I been reading a bit about loading up on wide receivers with the new rules emphasis. I also don't know if I am in a point per reception league or not.

Any help would be appreciated.

I'm a newbie too, first time this year. I have been doing mock drafts - would help a ton if you do those with your wife. Also make sure she has a draft board in something that won't crash/lag or cause any stress during the draft. If your site displays rankings and you are fine using those without changing them yourselves then that works I suppose, just as long as it is stable. I have had some technical difficulties with espn's mock draft site, so even if I wanted to trust their rankings I'd still move them into Excel before the draft.

I would advise doing an 8 or 10 man league. Those tend to be more beginner friendly and good players last longer. If you come to enjoy fantasy football and get better at it, you can try 12-14 man leagues later as they are much more challenging.

I added a lengthy guide below to (as quickly as possible) cover all the basics and give a few tips. It ended up being pretty long, there is a lot to cover in fantasy football.

Ultimately the fun of fantasy football comes from using your football knowledge to your advantage in a competitive arena. When I did my first fantasy season in 2007 I was just like you, I only followed the Seahawks and thought the idea of FF was stupid and kinda lame, I only did it because I was pestered by family and friends. I hated my first fantasy season even though I had 18-1 career year Tom Brady. I swore off fantasy drafts until 2012, and only did them because my brother begged me every year.

But after seeing the movie "Moneyball" and discovering how the same concepts applied to PC/JS building a dynastic team, it made the idea of FF really fun because it gives people a way to look for undervalued assets and market inefficiencies in a somewhat similar way that actual GMs do. It's kind of the same kind of fun you get from flipping stocks, I guess, but it's football related instead and involves no financial risk.

The best thing about FF is that it makes you a much more involved NFL fan. Suddenly you really care about NFL games that don't involve the Seahawks in any way because you want to see if your #2 WR can get you the 11 points you need to win your weekly fantasy matchup. I'm actually really glad I got into FF in 2012 because it made me a much smarter and better informed fan of the league and gave me a richer perspective on my own team.

It also helps soften the blow of a Seahawks loss when I know my fantasy team won a crucial game that week. I would say maybe a third of my NFL enjoyment last season came from non-Seahawks games. Having a team to manage and follow definitely enriches the NFL experience.

But will you enjoy your first season? Probably not. I hated my first season because I was drafting teams based on how good the players were, not how good they are in fantasy. It wasn't until the light bulb came on and I figured out how to exploit market inefficiencies to win games that it became a lot of fun.

And hey, FF isn't for everyone. I'm a super-competitive guy and I think this game really plays to competitive types. So if you are indifferent about being the best or wanting to win this might not be for you.

Now as far as the draft strategy goes...

I think in the situation you laid out it's probably just best to draft BPA as much as possible. I use Yahoo and they have a nice feature that lets you see the average draft position of every player as you go through the draft which helps even new players to draft semi-intelligently. You should try to draft players you like or enjoy watching, just be sure your wife uses the average draft position guidelines to make sure she doesn't draft them way too early. If you don't have any favorites, going BPA by drafting the highest average draft position player available is a solid strategy.

Last season favored WRs and QBs more than usual, and with the new rules emphasis, 2014 will probably favor them even more. It's a very deep year for both WR and RB so it's okay to go WR early if the board falls that way. You could even go for a QB/TE early and still make it work because it's such a deep year at WR/RB. Usually though, players take at least 1 RB in the first two rounds. Often they start off RB-RB. Last year I started WR-WR in two leagues and finished #1 in points in both of them, so at the end of the day it just comes down to getting good players.

Here are some of the basics as far as positional value.

I mentioned drafting for BPA before. Up to this point in the year, there have already been thousands if not millions of fantasy drafts and fantasy mock drafts that have occurred. This data is collected and charted, and most fantasy draft sites will tell you the "average draft position" of every player from that sample so you'll know the approximate order every player has gone in. You can think of it as being like drafting "Mel Kiper's best available," except that the fantasy rankings are usually pretty smart.

Ideally, you want to get at least 2 RBs in the first 5 rounds in a 10 man league. I'd recommend as many as 3 in the first five rounds since RB is the riskiest and most important position in fantasy. Now, if you know the league like the back of your hand like the best do, you can put off RB quite a bit and get some RB steals in rounds 6-10 to help cover your RB group. But since this is your first draft I would recommend to stay close to the fundamentals and get 2 RBs fairly quickly (first five rounds). You could even go for 3 RBs in the first five to help offset the risk, RBs are really risky and bust frequently.

WR is going to be very deep this year. There are going to be some top 25 WRs going in the middle rounds. The argument for going WR early is that they tend to be much safer than RB. So if your wife is drafting and the best player available is a WR at your first pick, it's okay to take a WR there.

It's okay to take a QB early assuming he's a good value by the average draft position guidelines. So if Peyton Manning's average draft position is 10, and you pick 13th, Manning is a good value and it's totally fine to take him there.

Unless Jimmy Graham is sitting there around the 10th pick or so or Gronk is there in the 30s, I wouldn't draft a TE early. You can get a solid TE much later in the draft, maybe as late as the 10th round you can get a solid starter at TE.

Never draft a defense or kicker earlier than the 12th round (most experts wait until their final two rounds (14-15) to take them, but I would say it's okay to take them a little earlier if you want. Round 12-13 is just fine and gives you an early jump on the available options). Defenses and kickers vary so much every year that it's a waste to invest a good pick on most of them. Even a great defense like Seattle is not worth drafting until the later rounds because invariably there will be a defense that comes out of nowhere to finish ahead of them in points (last year it was Kansas City, a defense that went undrafted).

Fantasy bargains.

Try to go BPA or close to it in the first 6 rounds or so. After that it's all about finding bargains. Here are a few I like:

QB:

Mid-to-late round bargains: Cutler, Romo, Dalton, Wilson, Kaep, Ryan, RG3 (you should be able to get one of these guys in the 8th or 9th round no problem and they are better in fantasy than they are in reputation).

If Stafford, Luck or Newton fall to the 6th round they are huge bargains there.

RB:

Mid-to-late round bargains: Joique Bell, Fred Jackson, Ben Tate, Reshad Jennings, Danny Woodhead, Stevan Ridley, Darren Sproles, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Bishop Sankey, Chris Johnson, Shane Vereen.

In the early rounds I strongly recommend any of the top 5 RBs (Peterson, Charles, McCoy, Forte, Lacy) if you have a top 5 pick. I also think Marshawn Lynch is a minor steal (currently going 10th overall).

WR:

Golden Tate is going to have a huge season playing in Megatron's shadow and he's been turning heads this preseason. To me he's a 5th round value but he's currently going in only the 10th round. Michael Crabtree is also under-rated in fantasy and is going 5th round. Ditto Michael Floyd. Julian Edelman is a good buy in the 8th round.

Cordarrelle Patterson is this year's ultra sleeper in fantasy, he could finish #1 in the league but is only being drafted mid-5th round. I've been watching the Minny offense this preseason and Bridgewater looks damn good. I am very bullish on Patterson.

Jordy Nelson would have been #1 with ease last year, and then Aaron Rodgers went down. He's currently going early 3rd round.

TE:

You could probably pick a TE out of a hat and be just fine. I like Jordan Cameron in the 6th round. I also like Greg Olsen in the 7th and Dennis Pitta in the 9th. There are so many good options you really can't go wrong so long as you follow the average draft position guide.

Def:

Wait until rounds 12-15 to take one. The Patriots are a trendy value buy. Hard to go wrong with Carolina or Cincy. The Giants and Browns are flying under the radar but are pretty good. If you want the Seahawks D be prepared to overpay a lot (as much as I love our defense, they aren't worth reaching for in fantasy). Defense also accounts for special teams, so if a team has a kicker returner stud you could factor that into your decision.

Kicker:

You can pretty much draft a kicker randomly very late in the draft and be okay. I always look for Hauschka though because he's one of the best value buys every year. That might chance this year after his strong 2013 season.

With defense and kicker, it's best to see how things shake out. Often times you'll be able to find an upgrade after the draft in free agency because kickers and defenses are so random and unpredictable in fantasy.

If you really want to win, the key to winning your league will be watching the waiver wire / free agency and looking for bargains to upgrade your team. Last year the #1 fantasy defense, the #3 TE, the #5 RB, the #1 and #8 WRs were all either undrafted or late round picks.

Last tip:

The best "build" for a standard fantasy team is 1 QB, 1 TE, 1 Defense, 1 Kicker, and then a ton of RBs and WRs. QB, TE, Def, and Kicker don't really require backups since the waiver wire / free agent group during the season is usually pretty good in those four areas. You'll need to pick up a replacement for those four positions when they have their bye-weeks, but you can punt them the next week after they've covered your starters bye week.

Thanks guys. I will share this advice with my wife. Good information.

Thanks for the wall of text Kearly. Good advice that will help us get started.

I still don't know the rules or the draft order. Gotta figure that out.

Kearly's walkthrough is good. Fantasy football is an ocean, wade in as deep as you want to go. My league has some guys who are utterly nuts, that send me emails about potential trades before we even have teams to trade. It also has some folks are just idle fans, they tend to pick their teams based more own personal likes than point spreads. Admittedly they don't tend to win, but they like the involvement in the league and it's a way for them to learn more and connect with their favorite NFL players on another level. Ultimately, whatever strategy you employee, make sure you have fun.

But to prep your wife, do some mocks. Because there is CRAZY stuff happening in mocks. Some people draft rationally, some draft very oddly (but perhaps doing so because their league has keepers or other restrictions that prevent them from taking Forte even if he's there), so she'll see all kinds of scenarios and begin to understand who is the "best" choice at the time. I use quotes because that choice is of course dependent on your strategy.

My 2 cents and strategy, I like a big RB to lead things off. They are few and far between, so if you can get one, get one. If not, then I think you go big WR twice. A really like the duo of Demariyus and Dez. Megatron is great, but getting older and Tate is there now. If you can land those two D's, then back them up some RBs on par with Leveon Bell, Montee Ball, and other surefire starters then you're looking good. Also, I know people are shunning him because of injuries, so he's dropping, but Arian Foster in the third round, all over it. Their offense is so sad and he's looking to get a boatload of work assuming he's healthy. Also on TE I like Zach Ertz and Kyle Rudolph. Young guys, lots of promise, you can get them late. Oh and as much as you, I and everyone love our Seahawks, do not take their D in the 5th. I've seen it. Just don't. Trust me

I would also add that first and second round WRs seem to be more valuable than drafters think. The top WRs last year basically had the same value over baseline as guys like Eddie Lacy, and they are FAR safer picks, particularly Megatron and Demaryius Thomas. AJ Green will probably be a 2nd rounder and he's super safe. Peyton Manning is super safe and a great value in round 2.

If you end up going without a RB in the first two rounds it's nothing to cry in your beer about, especially since RB is pretty deep this year in a 10 man league.

Ok guys. Thanks for all the help. Here is what I know now. ....

I just got an email telling me that my team drafts 10th in a 12 team league. So looks like one of the top RB's will probably be gone. Perhaps I take a wide receiver or one of the "rodgers, manning, brees" guys at ten?

Oh and i just read that it is a snake draft. 1-12, then 12-1, ect. So looks like i get 10, 15, as my first 2 picks. Maybe Jimmy Graham (sp) at 10 or 15.

The league is not a point per reception league.

Question, are you and your wife doing a league together or are you doing two leagues separately?

Here's a list of yahoo's current average draft position (ADP). If you are doing an ESPN draft the numbers might be slightly different, but this should give you a decent idea of who's going where.

At #10, if by some miracle one of the top five RBs are there (Peterson, Charles, McCoy, Forte, Lacy), get one of them. If Calvin Johnson or Demaryious Thomas are there, get them. If Lynch is there, get him. Peyton Manning and Jimmy Graham are decent picks there too. At least one of those players will be there at #10.

My favorite options at #15 are Brandon Marshall, AJ Green, Julio Jones and Jordy Nelson. If you pass on Nelson and he reaches the #35 pick I would 'sprint to the podium' to get him. I think he is a lock to be a top 5 WR this year, quite possibly top 3.

Rodgers or Brees probably won't reach your 3rd pick (#35), but they would be slight reaches at #15. I would advise against reaching for them as we'll be rooting hard against these two QBs all year as Seahawks fans. You'd hate to have your fantasy team's success tied at the hip to their's. But if you get one of them at #35, screw it. Hard to walk away from a steal like that. If you miss out on a top QB it's not a big deal, good QBs are a dime a dozen these days.

Manning is special though, after what he did last season and with the new rules it's probably okay to draft him early. He was the 3rd best player in all of fantasy last year (value above baseline), an almost unheard of feat for a QB. Nobody expects him to repeat last year's numbers but if he did he'd be a massive steal at #10.

When in doubt, going BPA to fit needs is always a decent fallback option, at least in the first 60 picks or so. It's kind of like the real NFL draft, there isn't a ton of disagreement over players in the early rounds.

My wife and I are partners on this team. She is attending this draft and following this thread. I am out on the tug boat and can't attend the draft on Sunday at noon. Who knows if I'll be busy or not to advise her when she makes the picks. They are all meeting up at the local Tavern to do the draft. It's an offline draft. The league is setup thru NFL.com.

I been looking for an excel file with all the rankings on them. I see that some sites rankings are differnant then other ones.

Is this site a good one?http://walterfootball.com/fantasy2014spreadsheets.php
They have downloadable excel files with will help me as I can print those out and mark off players who have been picked. I am going to try and clear up time during sunday so that I can do the draft. It is too much work for my wife and is taking the fun out of this .

I looked at it, it's not bad. I would avoid Le'Veon Bell and Doug Martin. Both are super over-rated in fantasy this year, especially on that particular list. Manning and Demaryious Thomas are massively under-rated on Walter's overall list.

kearly":2dkvzrl3 said:

I looked at it, it's not bad. They have Demaryious Thomas and Peyton Manning way too low. I would avoid Le'Veon Bell and Doug Martin. Both are super over-rated in fantasy this year, especially on that particular list. They have those guys in the top 10, I would probably put them in the 50s or lower personally.

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looks like they got a printable cheat sheet over at ESPN. I think ill print that one out as a guide.

Le'Veon Bell I wont be drafting high. Not with the latest off the field news. The espn list has Payton Manning 8th overall and Demaryious Thomas as the # 2 wide receiver.

Here is the one i am thinking of using. It has the top 300 players.

http://g.espncdn.com/s/ffldraftkit/...pdf?addata=2014=ffldft_chtsht_standard300_xxx

So let me get a feel for how this works.... I draft players in each round. I am assuming for 12 or so rounds. That leaves only about 12 selections. I am assuming i get the rest on the waiver wire somehow? or is that all the players I get? I will have to go figure out how that works.

It will probably be a 15 round draft, possibly 16 rounds. If everyone on the list is gone by the end you could just draft a kicker or defense if you haven't drafted one yet, or have your wife ask the people around her for some help getting the last few picks, I'm guessing they would be helpful.

I really like that list you just linked for ESPN. You might want to compare the yahoo ADP list to that one to see where the bargains show up.

For example, Marshawn Lynch is ranked #5 on ESPN, and rightly so. That's about where I'd rank him. But his average draft position on Yahoo is 10th, meaning that his actual value is better than where he's being drafted. Thus, if you can get Lynch 10th overall, it's a great pick.

I like that ESPN guide a lot. My top 50 would look almost exactly the same as theirs with only a few exceptions.

After the draft is over, you can drop players and add players from the free agent pool at any time. Keep in mind, every time you add a player it counts it as a transaction, and having a lot of transactions could potentially cost you a tiebreaker when trying to acquire a free agent (there is a waiting period to get FAs in some cases, which allows multiple players to put claims in).

As far as knowing which players to pick up, on Yahoo there is a tracker that shows how many points all the free agents are worth, I'm sure NFL.com's will have something similar. If you see a defense that has a lot of points early in the season and the defense you have isn't very good, you might consider making a switch. Same thing with kickers. If a TE like Travis Kelce comes out of nowhere and blows it up in week 1, you might want to pick him up, etc. For good ideas on players to watch you could probably just read this forum as we'll always be talking about bargain buys and free agent pickups.

Ok i just did a mock over at NFL.com

glad i did cause it got hectic. Here is the results...

# 3 Jamall Charles
# 18 AJ Green
# 23 Jordy Nelson
# 38 Cordarrelle Patterson
# 43 Andrew Luck
#58 Tory Smith
# 63 Ray Rice
# 78 Greg Olson
# 83 M. Colston
#98 P. Thomas
# 103 T. Romo
# 118 Golden Tate
# 123 Tampa Bay Defense
# 138 Adam Vinateri
# 143 Chris Ivery

I kept getting messed up cause everyone i wanted to take had bye weeks that were the same as others on my team. I assume you would prefer to spread these out correct?

anyhow that is my first crack at it.

Dom

That's a really good team, insanely good at WR. You might get six starting caliber WRs from that team, which nicely helps offset the risk that comes with Cordarrelle Patterson.

But, you are way too thin at RB, especially since Charles is so injury prone. The Charles pick is just fine, but I would have looked for another RB at #58 instead of Torey Smith. Smith is a good player but is just so-so in fantasy.

IMO, Luck is not worth the #43 pick, but he is a good fantasy QB. Romo is a great value but you might not need him. Luck is extremely durable and has non-existent home/road splits. You can start Luck every single week and feel pretty good about his fantasy value regardless of who he's playing and where he's playing them. Luck wasn't even all that good of a QB last season and still finished 4th in fantasy.

The reason Luck isn't worth drafting THAT high is because despite being 4th place he was only 22 fantasy points better than 8th place Russell Wilson, who was a late round pick.

Wilson's current average draft position (Yahoo) is 100, so basically 8th or 9th round in a 12 man league. I know this is a Seattle based draft you are doing so he'll probably go sooner than that, but I'm starting to think that Wilson could be a steal this year. If you haven't taken a QB by the 7th round and he's there, nab him. If you do get Wilson it might not be a bad idea to get a value QB like Romo or Cutler later on since Wilson has big home/road splits and tends to predictably struggle against certain opponents.

Yea..agree on Russell. First, I think Seattle will start to throw more this year. Next year between him and Harvin it will be 30+ million of the cap..have to get production if that much of your cap is spent on it. I also think Wilson will have more rushing TDs this year.

Ive taken him in two drafts, endured the "homer" blasts and hoping to look smart later.

Thanks guys. So am I correct about worrying about the bye week of a player in my drafting or am I just too concerned about it.

So I need at least four running backs? 5 if I take Charles?

Tech Worlds":38ddom8f said:

Thanks guys. So am I correct about worrying about the bye week of a player in my drafting or am I just too concerned about it.

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Some players go for lined up bye weeks, because you'll take one massive loss and be full strength the rest of the year. There us no perfect in fantasy, so it's not a horrid strategy.