First mock draft of 2014

Standard (non-PPR) league (1x QB, 2x RB, 3x WR, 1x TE, no flex). 10 man draft. I picked 8th and there were sadly no dumbasses in this league, except me apparently.

1st round (8th overall): WR Demaryius Thomas
2nd round (13th overall): RB Montee Ball
3rd round (28th overall): WR Antonio Brown
4th round (33rd overall): WR Keenan Allen
5th round (48th overall): TE Rob Gronkowski
6th round (53rd overall): RB Joique Bell
7th round (68th overall): RB Bishop Sankey
8th round (73rd overall): WR Golden Tate
9th round (88th overall): QB Russell Wilson
10th round (93rd overall): RB Stevan Ridley
11th round (108th overall): TE Zach Ertz
12th round (113rd overall): QB Philip Rivers
13th round (128th overall): DEF Kansas City
14th round (133rd overall): K Mason Crosby
15th round (148th overall): RB Darren Sproles

Roster:

QB Russell Wilson

RB Montee Ball
RB Joique Bell

WR Demaryius Thomas
WR Antonio Brown
WR Keenan Allen

TE Gronk

K Mason Crosby

DEF Kansas City

Bench:

QB Philip Rivers
RB Bishop Sankey
RB Stevan Ridley
RB Darren Sproles
WR Golden Tate
TE Zach Ertz


Yuck. Picking 8th was as big of a nightmare as I thought it would be. And the players who picked one pick ahead of me kept nabbing my players. The three players who went right in front of my pick in the first three rounds: Eddie Lacy, Jimmy Graham, and Alshon Jeffery. Over and over there were "ledges" in the draft after a certain player went, and that ledge player went right in front of me at least six times. So this was basically a worst case scenario draft for me.

So I had to make do to try to turn lemons into lemonade, and I think this team is maybe good enough to finish middle of the pack in points and squeak into the playoffs with some week to week luck. I learned a few lessons from this mock, mainly to not get too cute with "under the radar" studs. Anyway, I'm not exactly thrilled with this draft, but here's my thought process.

1st round (8th overall): WR Demaryius Thomas

No QB in the NFL will benefit more from the new rules environment than Manning. That also means a trickle down effect for all his targets. I don't know if Manning can match last year's TDs, but he will probably come closer than people think.

Meanwhile, Decker is allowed to leave, and Decker's main talent was being a TD magnet. His replacement Sanders will be good, but is very unlikely to replace Decker's TD numbers. Wes Welker may miss some time this year from concussions or other injuries. Montee Ball I expect to be productive, but not in the passing game the way Moreno was. All of this points to Thomas getting an even bigger slice of the pie than ever. Last year he was neck and neck with Megatron in scoring, and whereas Megatron is now being siphoned off by Golden Tate, Thomas is actually getting an even higher share of the load. Thomas is a really good bet to be a top 3 WR and has a strong bid for top five or six in fantasy points above baseline.

Even though I really didn't want to lead off with a WR, Thomas was by far the best player available with all the top RBs, Graham and Calvin gone.

2nd round (13th overall): RB Montee Ball

I felt a lot of pressure to take a RB here. Though it's less than ideal to take your first two picks from the same offense, I thought Ball was a very strong value at #13 overall. Ball is not a great player but he will be in a great situation with nobody looking over his shoulder. I think Ball is risky, but he scares me less than Bernard who is more of an unknown despite being far more talented and also in a decent situation.

3rd round (28th overall): WR Antonio Brown

Another pick where everyone except for a WR sucked for value. This pick came down to Brown vs. Gerhart. Brown wins that easily. Brown is a legitimate #1 WR IMO and is coming off a breakout season. There is very little else for Big Ben to target in that offense. There were other players I wanted that didn't fall to me, but I was pretty happy to get Brown this late.

4th round (33rd overall): WR Keenan Allen

Similar to Brown, Allen is just a really good WR catching passes from a franchise QB who doesn't have a ton of quality options to choose from. I would not expect a sophomore slump from Allen.

5th round (48th overall): TE Rob Gronkowski

I wanted to make at least one swing for the fences pick, and I couldn't say no to Gronk in the 5th. If Gronk stays healthy, he'll give me a huge weekly advantage over most other teams.

6th round (53rd overall): RB Joique Bell

I think Bell is a very safe #2 RB who's better in fantasy than a lot of people realize. The best RB alternatives were guys like Ben Tate and Bishop Sankey, and I just feel that Bell is a safer bet than both those guys, especially with Detroit's new coaching staff emphasizing a physical running this year and Bell catching a ton of passes. I don't love this pick, but I feel totally at peace with it as a 6th round #2 RB.

7th round (53rd overall): RB Bishop Sankey

Sankey has not had a great preseason running with the backup OLs, but I can't believe they'd make him the top drafted RB and then sit him in favor of Shonn Greene. Did they learn nothing from the 2013 Bengals?

Even though I am mildly bearish on Sankey this year, his fantasy upside is very high and this is the kind of RB I like to have on my bench with two relatively safe starters.

8th round (73rd overall): WR Golden Tate

Tate is in line to be the NFL's most productive #2 WR. I'm expecting him to post top 25 WR numbers this year. Great insurance policy.

I like my first four WRs so much from a "safe pick" standpoint that I'm comfortable with a 4 WR roster.

9th round (88th overall): QB Russell Wilson

He was 9th in fantasy the last couple years, and seems poised for a breakout year with Harvin/Kearse/Baldwin. He has high career home/road splits (though they were almost even in 2013), and faces the 49ers and Cardinals during the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15 and 16). As such, going for a quality #2 QB to platoon with Wilson is a good idea.

10th round (93rd overall): RB Stevan Ridley

Ridley might be cut this weekend for all I know, he's had a rough preseason. Maybe that's why he lasted this long. By this point in the draft, very few starting RBs remained. This pick came down to options like MJD, Ridley, Moreno and Ingram. I took Ridley because I thought I could get Moreno or Ingram later, but unfortunately I got too cute and missed both.

But anyway, Ridley may well end up getting most of New England's carries. If he can stop fumbling, he could turn into a starting caliber RB.

11th round (108th overall): TE Zach Ertz

If you draft Gronk, you have to have a backup plan. I wanted someone less risky than Ertz, but by the time I picked my second TE he was the only decent one left.

12th round (113rd overall): QB Philip Rivers

Rivers best matchups happen to coincide with Wilson's worst quite nicely. I don't think Rivers will be #4 in fantasy again but I think he has a good chance to remain top 10.

If Wilson tears it up in 2014 and gives us Aaron Rodgers type production and looks almost as good on the road, I might ditch/trade Rivers. But in a more realistic scenario, I really like Rivers and Wilson as a QB platoon, sitting Wilson during his tougher games for Rivers.

Having a second QB off the bat also helps for Wilson's super early bye week.

13th round (128th overall): DEF Kansas City

I'm a believer in taking defense and kicker a round early since the last bench player you draft is generally the first guy you cut, and if you're like me that means you're probably cutting that guy in the first couple weeks when scrambling to sign this year's version of Knowshon Moreno or Zac Stacy off the scrap heap.

This was a really tough choice between Denver and KC. KC has one of the NFL's best pass rushes, and in a year like this fantasy points will be earned more from sacks than picks or shutouts. The only problem is that KC's offensive line is in shambles, their star RB gets injured almost every year, their pass catchers mostly suck, and their QB is Alex Smith. Can they rack up sacks if they are playing from behind all year? They also lost McCluster which will hurt their special teams scoring a bit.

Denver should have a pretty good pass rush this year, and they have some big names in the secondary. They will be playing in good situations almost every week. And they can stop the run. Really tough call, and I kind of regretting going KC despite their terrific 2013 scoring season.

14th round (133rd overall): K Mason Crosby

He had a bit of an off year in 2013, which likely coincided with the ginormous dropoff on offense when Rodgers went down. If Rodgers bounces back, so will Crosby most likely.

15th round (148th overall): RB Darren Sproles

This is my Mr. Irrelevant pick, so I figured I'd go with a player who's a mystery. Sproles did not have amazing fantasy numbers last year and he's getting up there in age. But the Eagles traded a draft pick and ate a decent amount of salary to acquire him, which they wouldn't do unless they had big plans for the guy.

He's gotten rave reviews in training camp for making plays. I am not expecting him to breakout, but I am very curious to see how he looks in a hurry up spread offense that would maximize his potential. The only hangup is the number of carries he'll get, but with McCoy getting minor injuries left and right, we might see more of Sproles than initially expected early in the year to help keep McCoy healthy for the long haul.

This is exactly what you want in a 15th round pick, because Sproles will probably prove his value in the first month of the season. If he's a dud by week 3 or 4, I'd feel totally comfortable releasing him to make waiver wire moves.

...

Overall, one of the big takeaways I had from this exercise is that this draft kind of sucks for RBs, but is amazing for WRs. I hope in my real draft I have a shot at a top RB, because you can find very good WRs in rounds 3-7 no problem this year.

It's a good team.

I hate your RB situation, but I think Ball has a top 10 year, so you just need to hit on another top15 RB.

WR I love. Tate was a great value pick, same with Allen IMO.

Gronk healthy will win you a few weeks. He is a top 25 pick healthy and you got him at 48.

RW is looking outstanding right now, and I'm kicking myself for not getting him in the money league I'm in (12 teams, went in the 11th rd). I picked Cam in the 9th round, so if he gets healthy I'll be ok, but I would have rather had RW and a RB/WR upgrade...

Hopefully in your real draft you can get a better RB2 than Bell.

My goal was to get my starting RBs in the first three rounds, the first of which preferably in the first five picks. But the draft board kicked my ass and the best options would have been guys like Gerhart in the 3rd round. Joique Bell was I think the 2nd highest rated RB at my 3rd round pick. Other than getting fair value on Ball in the 2nd, I didn't see another RB who wasn't a HUGE reach until the 6th round. Really sucked.

Had the same problem in my league which appears similar to yours, 10 guys and I was picking ninth. Took V-jax in the third over a few decent RB's, and by the time my pick came back the depth at the position was a wasteland. I'd say you made out better than me however. I really like Bell this season, and I firmly believe that Sankey is going to put up low end #1 numbers when he gets the starting nod.

Honestly, I dont like much in that picking. In particular I dont like Gronk at 5th, as hes just too much of a question mark. I would take CLE's TE Jordan Cameron over him, especially now with Josh Gordon being out for the year.

Bell I dont trust but sounds like you basically had to.

Wilson is a steal, he will have more points this year than ever before. Rather than Ridley Im surprised you didnt try to hit on a deep sleeper. Mark Ingram is going undrafted in some leagues Id look into that as the Saints seem to be trying to turn him into a semi every down back. Your RB situation looks almost untenable right now.

One of my regrets was taking Ridley or Moreno. On paper Ridley was the smarter pick, but Moreno could potentially be in a decent situation.