Really enjoying this thread. I only have informed opinions on current Seahawks players and select few opponents, and this year, pretty much no college players. I'll take a shot at this based on what I saw this year.
Overall I subscribe to much of kf3339's approach in the first post of this thread. Younger and cheaper on D. Apologies for my plagiarism. And, I want to get back to Pete's core values as a coach, play elite defense, and be able to run the football when we need to.
Part 1. Player cuts:
Cliff Avril - Saves $7M on cap space
Jeremy Lane - Saves $5M on cap space
I don't see the point of cutting Jon Ryan as it seems like he hits boomers when we really need it. However, I may be giving him too much cred for past seasons and not noticing a performance decline. I don't want to save $1M on a punter, like on a placekicker, and have it cost us two games and the playoffs.
Re-structuring:
Duane Brown - 3 year extension for $30M with a $10M signing bonus spread over 4 years. Base salary of $4M this year. Saves us about $3M in cap space this year.
Frees $15M in cap space, now at $29M.
Part 2. Our FA re-signings:
Bradley McDougal - 3 year contract $10M total with $2M signing bonus and 1st year base of $1M
Dion Jordan - 2 year contract for $10M at $2.5M first year and team option for $7.5M second year
Marcus Smith - 1 year contract $1m base salary
Luke Willson 2- year contract $1M signing bonus with first year salary at $500K
I don't think Sheldon Richardson improves us enough over our homegrown young DT talent to be worth the money. Richardson looked really good the first half dozen or so games, with interior QB pressure, but then seemed to become less disruptive, and I'm just not sold on the overall package for the cost.
I'd love to see Paul Richardson back in a Seahawks uniform, but not at the cost of overpaying him, and the downside is that he is a liability in run blocking.
This leaves about $20M in cap space for free agency and the draft.
Part 2A: Free agent targets:
Our motto: First, do no harm. And no reaching. Eddie Laces-Tied-Together, and Luke Joke, I'm looking at you.
TBD, OG - Looking for an NFL-quality lineman, strong in run game, average or better in pass pro. Defer to scouts and GM on naming specific targets. Target budget $6M, up to $8M for higher quality. Let's not miss out on another T.J. Lang.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE - 4 year contract, $6M signing bonus and $3M first year salary
LB - Let's let Ken Norton Jr pick out an under-appreciated LB or two who will gain new life in this defense. Budget $4M.
If we can pick up a veteran G who fits Solari and Schottenheimer's scheme, beyond his play, he could also provide an example and mentor to the younger guys.
Crossing my fingers on the RT position, hoping Solari can make an existing guy or draft pick work.
I like ASJ as a player and think he could find new life in Seattle and would be more willing to return to his college hometown.
Defensively, I like our D-Line, and it's LB depth I'm concerned about, and a truly viable backup for Earl, and CB depth, as our Corners always seem to get nicked up during the season.
From the Dream On dept.: I really like Jay Ajayi, he is the only back I've seen who makes me think of Lynch in his prime. I think we missed that train.
That should leave roughly $7M in cap at this point. A little on the low-shaky side, in case of the need for midseason deals that require cap room. As I understand it, we were stuck with K Blair Witch due to having no room under the salary cap to sign a (better) replacement, mid-season.
Part 2B: Player trades:
Not going to trade Bennett. He played at a high level despite injury this year. Not a fan of the activism stuff, but going to ignore that. IMO he outperforms his contract. Keep.
I don't think we can get value for Earl Thomas compared to what he means to our defense. Earl's an emotional, sometimes impulsive guy who runs his mouth at times. Just a reflection of his passion for the game. Remember a couple days after breaking his leg he was tweeting about retiring? Yeah. Emotional, impulsive, and playing at a high level again. Keep. Draft his replacement and let Earl mentor him.
Part 3. Draft
FS, My top priority would be finding a successor/understudy for Earl Thomas at FS. First round, but no reaching if not there.
SS, After that, I'd like to find a successor to Kam at SS, to be McDougal's understudy/backup for a year or two. Granted, Kams don't grow on trees. Kam-Bam was originally a 5th rounder; seems like long odds for lightning to strike twice.
CB, Next priority would be to add some CB depth. I think we'll get a really good season out of Sherman this year, and let's bring in some CB depth who can benefit from his mentoring.
WR, Paul Richardson is probably gone/overpriced, so we need to bring in some receiver depth to groom. NFL level WR's, aside from Doug Baldwin, seem to need a full season or two to become true NFL-quality WRs. I think/hope Darboh from last year will start to show up more this year. Let's draft a couple prospects and let them develop and compete.
RBs, what a crapshoot. Our RBs all get injured. Maybe if our OL sucks less this year, they'll stay healthier? Yes, let's take a flyer on a couple unique talents if we have the opportunity. If Chris Carson comes back at the same level, that would help.
QB: We need a QB understudy to groom for times when Russell may not be available. Let's see what is available around the 5th and 6th rounds. Kirk Cousins, Russell's college adversary, was a 5th rounder the same year as Russell. Tom Brady was a 6th rounder, IIRC. Just ask the Philadelphia Eagles about the value of having a backup QB who can come in and get the job done. I remember the AFC West days when the Seahawks would play John Elway and the Broncos, and Elway was out injured. Awesome, we're winning this game for sure! And then Elway's backup, Gary Kubiak, now an NFL head coach, would come in and carve up our defense for a Broncos win. Kubiak was an 8th rounder, ie, today, a UDFA.
LB, If we see a good prospect in the middle rounds, pull the trigger. KJ Wright was a 5th rounder IIRC. We need to be developing some LB depth and successors.
I'm wary of taking OL high. Maybe it's the memory of past failures.
Of course, publicly as the GM, I have to give the media BS and smokescreen, to keep everyone guessing. So I'll talk endlessly about how we are going to try hard to find DEs, DTs, and OLs in the draft, and name a few players that will be long gone by our picks as players we are targeting. Misdirection is part of the GM job.
Part 4. Player development (No cap impact aside from Practice Squad players making active roster)
TE, I'm hoping Tyrone Swoopes from Practice squad can make the roster and add some regular season contributions at TE this year.
WRM Looking for Amarah Darboh to contribute more at WR.
TE, Luke Vannett, here's looking, er, blocking at you.
WR/TE Tanner McEvoy, did you take notes watching Jimmy G do his thing in the red zone? This will be your 3rd year in the NFL, *if* you make the team. Show us.
DB/CB/SS/FS What do we have in our young DB's? Shaq Griffin is the real deal. Delano Hill, show us this year. And wasn't there one more young DB draft pick? Whoever you are, let's not be nameless anymore, make us know your name with your play.
DT, Looking for even bigger things from our young DTs. Naz Jones, keep it up. QJ, show us even more this year. We know you can.
DE, Branden Jackson can you get on the field more and get your name called more this year? You showed us flashes.
Young OL guys, who is going to step it up under Mike Solari's tutelage?
I'm including player development as I think it's a super important factor to consider, as it affects draft choices and free agent acquisitions. Pete & Co. put a lot of effort into developing the *whole roster*; it's one of Pete's strengths as a coach and leader.
Part 5. Other key factors - Existing players
CB, Richard Sherman, I fully expect Sherm to come back and play at a very high level. That's his makeup. I'm counting on that. I'll take some young corners in the draft, UDFAs or maybe pick up some under-appreciated young vets who would benefit from Sherman's tutelage. Out of Avril, Kam, and Sherman, the only one I expect to play another snap as a Seahawk is Sherman.
RB, Chris Carson, if it is looking like Carson will come back at a pre-injury level, he's my bell-cow RB. I don't have enough info to say right now. Hoping for good news prior to draft.
DE/DT, Michael Bennett, I think Bennett provides the value we pay him for, makes timely key plays, and plays through injury while still performing well. Keeping him.
DT, Malcolm McDowell, is this guy a football player, or a bust? Hoping to find out it's the first one this year.
I haven't truly addressed the edge rusher issue in my GM approach. That's a hole that needs to be filled. It looks like no Cliff Avril ever again, barring a miracle. Frank Clark does a great job, but we need it from both sides. Right now, I'm banking on getting Dion Jordan resigned, having him stay straight and play well, and hoping we get lucky, maybe find the next Chris Clemons in free agency, but I do not have a confident plan on this yet.
You know what, though... sometimes the teams that have the big year are teams that get a little lucky, have fewer injuries, and have unexpected guys come through. Kurt Warner and the SB champion StL Rams anyone? How about those Eagles, this year? Not to mention Case Closed and the Vikings. Yeah, more non-QB examples would help. OK, in 2013, let's go with Chris Clemons, Golden Tate, Malcolm Smith, Jerome Kearse, and even Bowie and Bailey, for not sucking worse, all were some non-name players (at the time) who made key plays at key times, leading to that SB48 win. Oh yeah, and that massively underpaid Russell Wilson dude at QB. Basically, the 2013 team was able to put $20M more of non-QB talent than other teams could, with Russell on his rookie contract.
I realize my GM work may come across as a "stand pat" approach more than some. It's partly that I like our young talent and believe in Pete's player development program, and partly that I don't really track free agents and college players to know very many names of guys with the right "game" to plug in, and also... In the recent past, the Seahawks have screwed themselves by trying to do too much in free agency, apparently out of desperation and maybe even desire to please the media by "doing something". Before there was Lacy and Joeckel, there was Harvin and that sucky overpaid CB we got from Philly. Corey or Cary something I think. First do no harm.
Anyway, I'd have to bring in some really good consultants and have the scouts do great work to avoid being sacked after (in middle of?) my first season. Scott McCloughan, I'll pay you well, set you up with an on-prem suite, complete with--well, never mind. Just be of clear mind when helping make key decisions on players.
