2014 season epitaph(?)...thoughts on the game

MontanaHawk05

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Sometimes it just doesn't work out.

I hate that phrase. It's just so frustratingly helpless. There's no one thing you can fix, no one strategy you can appropriate. That's what makes up the bulk of forum posts these days...the search for the one magic bullet. It's on Bevell. It's on the offensive line. It's on Wilson. It's on the defense. Everyone's trying to distill the problems down to one factor, even trying to create tie-ins where none exist. Because that offers hope. If it's just one thing to fix, it'll be a quicker fix, without an agonizing years-long wait.

But sometimes, through events beyond your control, it just doesn't work out.

The season is not mathematically over for the Seahawks, but let's face some facts. We are currently down three games in the NFC West...the NFC West...with the Cardinals looking decidedly unimpressed by the Lions at the moment. Max Unger is down again with a gruesome injury. Brandon Mebane and Zach Miller are already gone. We are, courtesy of our recent Super Bowl win, playing the league's toughest schedule. And Russell Wilson's go-to tight end in the passing game is Cooper Helfet.

Mathematically possible is not the same as realistic.

I want to say that I loved the spirit with which the Seahawks closed the game. They still fight with fire and spunk right down to the 60th minute, just as they did in Pete Carroll's first season with the team. They believe in themselves. They always give themselves a chance. Most impressive was the way they answered the big KC return followed by Lockette's ejection, a potentially devastating chain of events. They turned right around and delivered a counterblow, grabbing a crucial turnover. Trading punches all day. And because of that attitude, it will remain dangerous to underestimate the Seahawks.

But...Cooper Helfet?

I was the guy last year who predicted a Super Bowl win with my 10,000th post. I was correct. I consider that post my greatest accomplishment as an amateur Seahawks writer/blogger, much better than anything I've put on my pittance of a blog. But too much has changed since then, albeit in subtle ways. It's not as if there's been a major collapse. But between injury and attrition quietly chipping away at Seattle's season, we've suddenly found ourselves on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in. A slow fade, which your eyes don't fully register until it's might be too late.

Thoughts on today's game.



1. Passing game. Much more effective than last week, although last week was the least effective in Wilson's career. Today, our receiving corps came to play. Tough catches from everyone involved. Agonizingly, the difference in the game was (amongst other things) Jermaine Kearse's end-zone drop on a hardy but catchable pass. It's hard to hate Kearse for it, but it's also hard to resist the thought that Kelvin Benjamin would have caught it. And a lot of other passes. Ones that Wilson never threw because he knows he has no weapons tall enough to go up and get them.

Nevertheless, some plays were there. Darell Bevell seemingly remembered this thing called the slant today. He also eased up on the screens...a bit. Russell Wilson noticeably shook off his accuracy issues and didn't rely so much on his legs, perhaps in part because Kansas City's secondary was a little suspect. Willson and Kearse were game. Norwood and Lockette...still on a milk carton. (Well, not Lockette, unfortunately.) And those are the backup options who should be taking pressure off Baldwin and Kearse.

I have to confess I'm getting green with envy watching guys like Kelvin Benjamin and Odell Beckham. Is it possible that Pete Carroll and John Schneider need to quit worrying so much about scheme fit and just grab a guy who can validate jump balls? It would change so much back in the pocket. Our WR corps is to the point where we don't need to be picky to find someone who will boost us.

Does anyone really look at this receiving corps and see dynamic matchup winners? I mean, really? What we're seeing right now is probably the absolute xenith of the Seattle Sub-6'2" Show.

Refreshing alternate explanation for our passing struggles: Russell Wilson shows every sign of a QB who doesn't trust his receivers. He's naturally conservative, but why make risky throws if the defenders out-reach your receivers? He was more calm in the pocket today, and he had more pockets today than ever. But since he didn't take advantage, all that does is suggest that either he can't see his progressions, or that nobody's getting open. It might be time to conclude that he's simply not a natural pocket passer, and that we must accept a scheme built around what he IS good at. But a tall, reliable receiver is transcendent of scheme. It changes things. And Pete and John have been looking for one. He's elusive.

Another area that's starting to concern me is the scramble drill. Doug Baldwin's fire and effort on every play is unquestionable, but I wonder about the rest. Too many times, when FOX flashes its alternate views of a play, you see Wilson's targets slowing down and JOGGING after their initial route is finished. Has anyone noticed this? They're not breaking deep when a play goes awry like Sidney Rice did. They're not frantically working the field trying to give him an opening. That's dismaying. It's a huge blessing that Wilson constantly keeps his head up looking for a throw when he scrambles, but Rice was a lot better at giving him those chances than anyone else we currently have - so much that defenders are starting to ignore those little pump fakes he does to slow down pursuers. I noticed that today.



2. Running game. Carroll and Schneider need to be thinking hard about which evil they would rather swallow: the off-the-field "antics" of Marshawn Lynch (tame antics by some teams' standards) or the total excision of their identity as an offense. I don't see how anyone in the Seahawks' backfield replaces Lynch. Or anyone in the 2015 draft. Or anyone in free agency. Or any NFL player in the next 30 years. Lynch is that good. I don't think anyone is going to debate that. I know Rob Staton is in love with Melvin Gordon, but come on...this is Marshawn Lynch.

Robert Turbin and Christine Michael were oddly absent today. Up until now, I've interpreted Carroll's repeated usage of them in one of two ways: a) spelling Lynch or b) hoping to discover a feature back for the future. Throwing the entire game on Lynch's shoulders for the second half despite his hip issue kind of eliminated the first possibility for me. Turbin and Christine have yet to demonstrate team-carrying ability, although they might remain nice versatilities a la the Chiefs' backfield.



3. Pass protection. This gets its own section because of the disproportionate amount of attention it gets from Seahawks fans. Pass protection was a step up today against one of the best defensive lines in the league. That was really encouraging. Especially when you consider that Seattle's performance in pass protection has actually been, believe it or not, right about standard all year (just like the previous five Super Bowl winners). Four seconds in the NFL is considered "enough time" for the QB by most teams. Aaron Rodgers trains to begin his scramble drill even sooner than that.

As far as its prowess in the run game...with the obvious caveat that all is over if Max Unger leaves, this O-line is just so monstrous at its run blocking that upgrading/replacing them isn't as easy a decision as you think. Everything relies on the run game around here. It opens up play-action. It lets Wilson run. It wears down defenses so we can punch the game-winning score in the fourth. Lemuel Jeanpierre had better be ready.

This offensive line wasn't drafted to pass protect. We've known that. When Wilson stands back there, finds nobody open, and scrambles, much of that stems from the design of our offense. You can upgrade to a more finesse, pass-pro-oriented line if you want. But you set back the growth and chenistry they've accomplished, you downgrade the very engine of our offense when you do so, and no, O-line is NOT a safe pick. How much tradeoff is enough? Can we justify ditching an identity that took us to the Super Bowl and which is not responsible for our struggles this season?

This is something to be seriously chewed on. Much more fruitful than just falling back on announcer cliches about pass protection being the axis about which the planet rotates. This team does not rely on such an offensive philosophy. Maybe some teams do, but ours never has.



3. Defense. They did not lose the game for us. On the contrary, they stepped up in the fourth quarter in a major way and prevented Kansas City from running out the clock. I was surprised. The run defense struggled mightily, but a few caveats. We're not just missing Brandon Mebane; we're missing Brandon Mebane and Bobby Wagner. That against Jamaal Charles? Perfect storm. We likely won't face this situation again, so have some hope going forward.

However, the feeling that's creeping up on me is that we're relying a little too much on situational players in the front seven. It explains why guys like Bruce Irvin, Malcolm Smith, and KJ Wright keep coming up with pivotal plays and then disappearing for quarters at a time. I feel like our LB corps is stuck in Jay Cutler nightmare territory - not quite solid enough to push us over the top, but still too good to justify replacing with big picks or signings. So the Bears linger on, unable to improve at the position without a massive risk. That said, people step up in the playoffs when they play for Pete Carroll. Malcolm Smith did. I suppose we wait and see.

Carroll is still running competitions at a few positions. Smith and Kevin Pierre-Louis at OLB, Byron Maxwell and Tharold Simon at CB2. I've come to accept that such competitions occasionally open opportunities for the opposing team, but it'd be nice to see Seattle make decisions there. That said, it's probably something Carroll will lock down for the playoffs. If we make it.





It's got to be acknowledged that Seattle hung tough with another great NFL team and had a chance right down to the end. Seattle answered slow, excruciating drives punctuated with devastating knockout punches by delivering some of their own. True championship spirit on this team. Even now, the players are filling Twitter with reassurances and confidence. They still believe in themselves. I believe in them.

Nevertheless, this loss came at a bad time, adding to previous sloppy losses and a slow erosion of Seattle's homefield advantage to put the 'Hawks three games down in the division. It also added another unbearable injury right where it really hurts the offense. The Seahawks have their work cut out for them, they're now dependent on many other cards falling just the right way, and this time, we're not getting any big pieces back in December. If they win it all, they'll be doing it with half an offense' worth of third-stringers.

No pressure, Pete.
 

Hawks46

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Good post. A few things:

Wilson not being a natural pocket passer: I disagree. When he's given a clean pocket and someone that can actually get open, he's shown in the past that he does well from the pocket. Last year, and the last half of his rookie year, we were seeing all kinds of stats about how Wilson's QB rating from the pocket was high, and it wasn't just all about being creative.

That said, I agree with the OL assessment. You can typically draft interior OLmen for pass pro or run blocking, but you won't get a Guard that does both well. Elite LT's can do both well, but the interior guys are either pass pro or run blocking goons. Sweezy is the perfect example: he road grades people and gets to the second level well, but he also gets blown up by Dontari Poe at 330 lbs to give up an almost immediate sack (It would've been immediate, but Poe couldn't get back there any faster). That's why Wilson is so valuable to us; he makes up for some of the OL mistakes.

Charles ate us up, but most of it was on the outside. It's almost like our defenders couldn't get to the edge quick enough, which is weird because we're such an athletic defense. Without looking at the All 22, I'm guessing guys were out of position. Malcolm Smith typically gets swallowed by one blocker. Irvin flashes, but he's still a work in progress. He needs to tackle better, that's for sure. Wright has always been speed challenged, and we see what happens here: Charles can get to the outside well before Wright could.

KC only threw 16 passes, and they were almost all within 10 yards of the los. It negated our pass rush, so that really doesn't bother me....not on the DL here, they just didn't have an opportunity.

Overall, I expected this loss, but we looked better than I thought we would. The season isn't over, but we're now going to need help.
 

olyfan63

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Nice writeup.
I feel the same way about Kelvin Benjamin and Odell Beckham Jr. With one of them, instead of the Percy Harvin fiasco, whole different situation.
 

TwistedHusky

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I think it is pretty clear people knew the season was over but for playing out the games long ago.

You can tell by the lack of the kind of angry posts that usually follow a pivotal game.

I think people realized that with all the injuries we were just playing out the string at this point, mathematically we still have a chance but clearly if you scrutinize any of the data, all the #s point to the seahawks being lucky to make the playoffs and unlikely to win a game in them if they do.

And the FO needs to get over their issue with Lynch, unless he is frying up puppies or beating down women or children....he needs to play. They need to go back and look up a guy named Charles Haley. That guy was peeing on people's desks, or worse. And so SF got rid of him - he promptly went to Dallas and won SBs for them instead.

All indications are that Lynch is nowhere near as bad as Haley was. And if he is peeing on desks over there, they better just get some good all purpose cleaner, some furniture polish and deal with it. They don't have to like the guy. Or respect him. But they better respect his game, because without it this team is shockingly average.
 

AgentDib

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I agree with pretty much everything here.

The lack of depth on a front seven designed around rotating people through is tough to overcome. Does our FO have an issue grading D-line? Our successes have been inherited and FAs. Who have we hit on in the draft?

The desire to pin the blame on one area is understandable, one thing is easier to fix than ten things and simpler to talk about.

I do think the OL gets too much blame. At the same time, it's a bit inconsistent to downplay OL pass protection importance while emphasizing DL pass rush importance. If we take our opponents perspective our struggles in protection are a godsend for their pass rush presence.
 
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MontanaHawk05

MontanaHawk05

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TwistedHusky":1jtec1lf said:
I think it is pretty clear people knew the season was over but for playing out the games long ago.

Eh, I didn't feel that way until last week. Losing Mebane, Miller, and Unger? Way too much. And none of them are all that young, either.

Until today, things were in our hands. We could sweep the Cardinals and get back on top of the division. Now, with the Cards beating Detroit...the requirements to win the division now closely resemble a miracle.
 

pehawk

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First of all, no need to quote yourself or namedrop another Seahawks blogger. A blogger is just someone with a broadband connection; no different than my 5yo daughter (for the record, she has a big issue with KPL not getting as many snaps today). No one should think they know less than a blogger, or anyone else, because they don't. Period.

You're post is most likely, 99.99% right. However, we've seen lessor teams gut, scratch and claw a ring. Eli's Giants, 2013 Ravens, Brady's first ring, etc, etc. Even being this injured I'll take my chances with; Wilson, Pete, Kam, Earl, Lynch and Sherman anytime and any place. That's the fun part.

This team still sets up REALLY nice the next few years. Especially having learned some hard lessons this year.
 

TwistedHusky

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"the requirements to win the division now closely resemble a miracle"

This is what happens when you fail to win a game that you are supposed to win. The Rams and Chargers come to mind. The Cowboys come to mind. Losing 4+ games you "supposed" to win means you almost certainly won't be getting the brass ring.

Because crap happens. Important people go down. Fumbles bounce the wrong way. So you have to win the ones you can because it makes up for the ones where adversity rules against you. There were lost opportunities all along the way, and people (including those on the team) kept making excuses.

It might not be too late, but the odds and #s say it is over. We might even beat the Cards next week. We won't beat the 49ers in SF, so that will be the final nail in the coffin. Hopefully a learning experience for the FO, but this is the same FO that traded Harvin for half-eaten sandwich right before a key division game (a distraction that cost us that game).

For all the accolades that the FO should get for great FA and draft moves that gave us a SB, they really screwed us this year.
 

seedhawk

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Some context perhaps. We all know well that PC/JS inherited the tag end of the Holmy/Ruskell/Mora mess. It was grim at best. That first year we go 7-9, win the division by default perhaps, and then shock the defending champs. If our secondary had remained upright, we probably beat the Bears.

Second year, new QB, more new faces, SF rises, and playing a limited TJ for a big part of the year we still go 7-9. Respectable, and, PC isn't afraid to play a ton of his young guys.

Third year, RW shows up. More holes get filled. Still playing tons of young guys, and others now have experience. There is no book on RW and we steal a couple games at least we would have lost the previous year. Wind up 11-5 with a playoff win.

Last year, fate takes a hand. Ball just seems to bounce our way. We seem to somehow cover every fumble and never drop an interception. Two injuries on the O-line covered up till the starters return, we go 13-3 with guys fans bag on and they do a good enough job for us to win it all.

Average it all out and we are a 9-7 to 10-6 team. Last year and the year before, our record was probably 2 games better than it should have been. This year, because of injuries, we could well wind up with a record 2 games worse than it should be.

A couple other points. Pete canned Bates because he would not call the kind of game Pete wanted. Enter Bevell, who apparently does. Also, if you wanted a peek at what our run game will look like whenever we move on from Lynch, KC is a good example, as Michael is close to a Charles clone.
 

razgriz737

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Here is a list of WR's who will be unrestricted free agents this offseason. Any tickle your fancy?

Wes Welker
Reggie Wayne
Jeremy Maclin
Eddie Royal
Nate Washington
Michael Crabtree
Demaryius Thomas
Hakeem Nicks
Robert Meachem
Josh Morgan
Dez Bryant
Miles Austin
Matthew Slater
Cecil Shorts
Denarius Moore
Kenny Britt
Dane Sanzenbacher
Brad Smith
Torrey Smith
Jason Avant
Brandon Tate
Randall Cobb
Brandon Lloyd
Vincent Brown
Jerrel Jernigan
Leonard Hankerson
Marcus Easley
Dwayne Harris
Greg Salas
Santana Moss WR
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Kevin Ogletree
Seji Ajirotutu
Eric Weems
Aldrick Robinson
Derek Hagan
Louis Murphy
Joseph Morgan
Marlon Moore
T.J. Graham
Drew Davis
Greg Little
Kassim Osgood
Damian Williams
Greg Ellingson
 

DavidSeven

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I agree with basically all you said regarding personnel on the offense. I imagine there will be a lot more anger directed at coaching and playcalling as the weeks press on, but this team just doesn't have the right talent on offense to frighten anyone. This FO has loaded up on weapons that are useful for a different quarterback.

We're never going to see short crossers with this QB; no short-middle zone beaters. Yet, we have nothing but short-ish, quick-twitch receivers who are built for exactly that. We need WRs who can win the redline, RBs (besides Lynch) who can house dump-offs, and TEs who can box out their defenders and haul in catches. New Orleans, at its height, had an arsenal that was built like this to surround its shorter QB.

Letting Lynch go would certainly be a huge mistake. He is one of the few "right" pieces in this offense right now.
 

razgriz737

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DavidSeven":3qi4fug3 said:
We're never going to see short crossers with this QB; no short-middle zone beaters. Yet, we have nothing but short-ish, quick-twitch receivers who are built for exactly that. We need WRs who can win the redline, RBs (besides Lynch) who can house dump-offs, and TEs who can box out their defenders and haul in catches. New Orleans, at its height, had an arsenal that was built like this.

Letting Lynch go would certainly be a huge mistake. He is one of the view "right" pieces in this offense right now.
Agreed on both of these points.

I like Paul Richardson, and I think he will be good for us down the road. But I would love nothing more for us than to snag a big receiver who bullies opposing corners. I hope Norwood can develop into something like that down the road, but it would be nice to sign someone who is somewhat of a known quantity in that department.

If we deliberately part ways with Lynch, I honestly believe that will be the worst decision of the Pete Carroll era.
 
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MontanaHawk05

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razgriz737":35gazkcp said:
Here is a list of WR's who will be unrestricted free agents this offseason. Any tickle your fancy?

Wes Welker
Reggie Wayne
Jeremy Maclin
Eddie Royal
Nate Washington
Michael Crabtree
Demaryius Thomas
Hakeem Nicks
Robert Meachem
Josh Morgan
Dez Bryant
Miles Austin
Matthew Slater
Cecil Shorts
Denarius Moore
Kenny Britt
Dane Sanzenbacher
Brad Smith
Torrey Smith
Jason Avant
Brandon Tate
Randall Cobb
Brandon Lloyd
Vincent Brown
Jerrel Jernigan
Leonard Hankerson
Marcus Easley
Dwayne Harris
Greg Salas
Santana Moss WR
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Kevin Ogletree
Seji Ajirotutu
Eric Weems
Aldrick Robinson
Derek Hagan
Louis Murphy
Joseph Morgan
Marlon Moore
T.J. Graham
Drew Davis
Greg Little
Kassim Osgood
Damian Williams
Greg Ellingson

Anyone there who tickles my fancy will probably be resigned by their respective teams. Those who don't are probably not worth it.

Perhaps one will let us start a bidding war over their services. It's seemingly almost happened a couple times.
 

razgriz737

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MontanaHawk05":2ijadsgq said:
Anyone there who tickles my fancy will probably be resigned by their respective teams. Those who don't are probably not worth it.

Perhaps one will let us start a bidding war over their services. It's seemingly almost happened a couple times.
Yeah, I was just curious. I don't follow college football enough to know if there are any WR's in the upcoming draft who will the role you're looking for.
 

hawksfansinceday1

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Really good post Montana.

My thought is that our team pulled out a win in almost every close game that came their way last year i.e. Rams, Bucs, Texans, etc. whereas this year they aren't winning those. The margin between wins and losses in the NFL is usually very thin as we all know and outside of the Denver game we ain't winnin' 'em this season.

I said a couple weeks back if the Hawks split with KC and Philly, won 3 of 4 from the Cards and Whiners and beat the Rams at home in wk. 17 they'd make the playoffs and I stand by that. Unfortunately, I don't see it now for the reasons you stated in your initial post. It does feel like that after yesterday it is going to be an upstream swim especially considering the middle of the team has been gutted and Kam has not been himself since the GB game. I'm hopeful this franchise will contend for quite a few years. We shall see.
 

Hasselbeck

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razgriz737":1bg6ltyi said:
MontanaHawk05":1bg6ltyi said:
Anyone there who tickles my fancy will probably be resigned by their respective teams. Those who don't are probably not worth it.

Perhaps one will let us start a bidding war over their services. It's seemingly almost happened a couple times.
Yeah, I was just curious. I don't follow college football enough to know if there are any WR's in the upcoming draft who will the role you're looking for.

There are a few.. but honestly, the 2014 draft was the deepest draft for impact WR's in a long time. And as much as I like Richardson.. can't help but wonder what could have been if they went after a taller playmaker.
 

kearly

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FO still gives Seattle a 43.5% chance to make the playoffs. Sounds about right to me.
 

formido

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Yup, Seattle is in big trouble at this point. I think Football Outsiders overrates Seattle's chances because season stats, even rated for recency, don't account for Mebane and Unger.

Russell Wilson is still a brilliant pocket passer, though, just as his major college passer rating record and his first 2 1/4 seasons in the NFL attests. But, Seattle has no passing talent on the line or the receiving corps, and I can name the number of QBs who can thrive in that situation on one finger. Maybe. If it were any other team in the league, and the QB had this to work with on the passing side, no one would have any problem acknowledging the reality[1]. I mean, pretty mysterious that Wilson's first extended problems have come as soon as Harvin is gone and there's not a single threatening receiving target on the field, no? Much as his stats were sub-par, Harvin tilted the field. Now there's no Sidney, no Tate, and no Harvin. Even last year, no one was super excited about Seattle's receiving corps when Tate was the best talent on the edge!

I predict Wilson will come out of his slump[2] when Seattle gets better pass blockers, Wilson and one of the rookies develops some great chemistry, Seattle acquires better pass targets. Unfortunately, I don't even see the clear path to those things happening. Last year would have been a better draft to end up picking ~18th or wherever they're at now.

Luckily for Seattle, Wilson can also run -- in my view the best combination of running talent and decision making the NFL has ever seen in a QB. He is super productive and, just as importantly, is unlikely to get hurt running. Wilson is "multiple". Wilson makes the offense resilient. Where Luck or Manning gets killed by St. Louis's line and there's simply nothing they can do, Wilson can run for 100 yards and put his team in position to win[3]. Russell Wilson will never be the preternaturally efficient passer that Manning is, but I'll take Wilson's mix over just about anyone else's. There is a lot to be said for the fault tolerance in Wilson's game. Seattle owes a Super Bowl substantially to it.

1. You can't point to adjusted sack rate (as Tom Cable has been doing in interviews) or PFF marks or Football Outsider ratings to say the pass blocking is better this year, either. Seattle's deep passing game has vanished. That was the heart of Seattle's offensive identity and the source of most of their explosive plays. Seattle is giving up fewer sacks by asking its line to do nothing.

2. In the same way a batter hitting .200 off a steady diet of 110 mph pitches would be in a "slump".

3. ...only to be let down by the defense this time.
 

HawkWow

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formido":8heooulm said:
Yup, Seattle is in big trouble at this point. I think Football Outsiders overrates Seattle's chances because season stats, even rated for recency, don't account for Mebane and Unger.

Russell Wilson is still a brilliant pocket passer, though, just as his major college passer rating record and his first 2 1/4 seasons in the NFL attests. But, Seattle has no passing talent on the line or the receiving corps, and I can name the number of QBs who can thrive in that situation on one finger. Maybe. If it were any other team in the league, and the QB had this to work with on the passing side, no one would have any problem acknowledging the reality[1]. I mean, pretty mysterious that Wilson's first extended problems have come as soon as Harvin is gone and there's not a single threatening receiving target on the field, no? Much as his stats were sub-par, Harvin tilted the field. Now there's no Sidney, no Tate, and no Harvin. Even last year, no one was super excited about Seattle's receiving corps when Tate was the best talent on the edge!

I predict Wilson will come out of his slump[2] when Seattle gets better pass blockers, Wilson and one of the rookies develops some great chemistry, Seattle acquires better pass targets. Unfortunately, I don't even see the clear path to those things happening. Last year would have been a better draft to end up picking ~18th or wherever they're at now.

Luckily for Seattle, Wilson can also run -- in my view the best combination of running talent and decision making the NFL has ever seen in a QB. He is super productive and, just as importantly, is unlikely to get hurt running. Wilson is "multiple". Wilson makes the offense resilient. Where Luck or Manning gets killed by St. Louis's line and there's simply nothing they can do, Wilson can run for 100 yards and put his team in position to win[3]. Russell Wilson will never be the preternaturally efficient passer that Manning is, but I'll take Wilson's mix over just about anyone else's. There is a lot to be said for the fault tolerance in Wilson's game. Seattle owes a Super Bowl substantially to it.

1. You can't point to adjusted sack rate (as Tom Cable has been doing in interviews) or PFF marks or Football Outsider ratings to say the pass blocking is better this year, either. Seattle's deep passing game has vanished. That was the heart of Seattle's offensive identity and the source of most of their explosive plays. Seattle is giving up fewer sacks by asking its line to do nothing.

2. In the same way a batter hitting .200 off a steady diet of 110 mph pitches would be in a "slump".

3. ...only to be let down by the defense this time.

Great, realistic post. There's a lot of bumps in the road and imo, some appear to be insurmountable. I hear what you're saying re: Harvin. As much as I loathe the punk, his presence (on the field) was more threatening than his absence. But some times you just have to bite the bullet and do the right thing. You don't eat a bad piece of fish just because you paid $30 for it. But yes, he is truly the mistake that keeps on giving.

I don't need to remind anyone of this, but with our overall youth, we will be fine and I expect more serious runs. Just not this time. All good. This sux for the new fans more than anyone else. Most of us have been through times much worse and able to draw from those experiences. The difference with some of those teams is there wasn't much hope going forward. I have great hope for this team.
 

razgriz737

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formido":2fysirf2 said:
Yup, Seattle is in big trouble at this point. I think Football Outsiders overrates Seattle's chances because season stats, even rated for recency, don't account for Mebane and Unger.

Russell Wilson is still a brilliant pocket passer, though, just as his major college passer rating record and his first 2 1/4 seasons in the NFL attests. But, Seattle has no passing talent on the line or the receiving corps, and I can name the number of QBs who can thrive in that situation on one finger. Maybe. If it were any other team in the league, and the QB had this to work with on the passing side, no one would have any problem acknowledging the reality[1]. I mean, pretty mysterious that Wilson's first extended problems have come as soon as Harvin is gone and there's not a single threatening receiving target on the field, no? Much as his stats were sub-par, Harvin tilted the field. Now there's no Sidney, no Tate, and no Harvin. Even last year, no one was super excited about Seattle's receiving corps when Tate was the best talent on the edge!

I predict Wilson will come out of his slump[2] when Seattle gets better pass blockers, Wilson and one of the rookies develops some great chemistry, Seattle acquires better pass targets. Unfortunately, I don't even see the clear path to those things happening. Last year would have been a better draft to end up picking ~18th or wherever they're at now.

Luckily for Seattle, Wilson can also run -- in my view the best combination of running talent and decision making the NFL has ever seen in a QB. He is super productive and, just as importantly, is unlikely to get hurt running. Wilson is "multiple". Wilson makes the offense resilient. Where Luck or Manning gets killed by St. Louis's line and there's simply nothing they can do, Wilson can run for 100 yards and put his team in position to win[3]. Russell Wilson will never be the preternaturally efficient passer that Manning is, but I'll take Wilson's mix over just about anyone else's. There is a lot to be said for the fault tolerance in Wilson's game. Seattle owes a Super Bowl substantially to it.

1. You can't point to adjusted sack rate (as Tom Cable has been doing in interviews) or PFF marks or Football Outsider ratings to say the pass blocking is better this year, either. Seattle's deep passing game has vanished. That was the heart of Seattle's offensive identity and the source of most of their explosive plays. Seattle is giving up fewer sacks by asking its line to do nothing.

2. In the same way a batter hitting .200 off a steady diet of 110 mph pitches would be in a "slump".

3. ...only to be let down by the defense this time.
Footnotes in a .NET post. Brilliant. (no sarcasm)
 

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