Week 12 NFC Playoff Outlook

Hasselbeck

New member
Joined
May 2, 2009
Messages
11,397
Reaction score
4
The last two games of the weekend are both AFC interconference contests.. so we can assess the damage of today's loss to KC.. and as figured, we have a long trek ahead of us to get into the playoffs, much less the conversation of a division win and/or bye. Arizona has now built a two game (and for all intents and purposes a 3 game) lead for HFA with their win over the Lions.. so if the Seahawks want to catch them they should probably get to movin'.

Here are the playoff standings after Week 11's action

1 - Arizona - (9-1)
2 - Detroit - (7-3)* - Clinches NFC North via H2H win over Packers

3 - Philadelphia - (7-3)* - Clinches NFC East via better division record
4 - Atlanta - (4-6)* - Clinches NFC South via better division record, H2H win over Saints
5 - Green Bay - (7-3) - Clinches top wild card with better conference record than Cowboys
6 - Dallas - (7-3)
___________
In the hunt:
7 - San Francisco - (6-4)* - Above Seattle due to better division record
8 - Seattle - (6-4)

New Orleans (4-6)/Carolina (4-6-1) .. only listed because of NFC South division race

Key Week 12 NFC Games

Arizona (9-1) at Seattle (6-4)
Obviously goes without saying. This really could be our season right here. The Seahawks need to keep pace with not only the Cardinals, but the 49ers, Cowboys, Packers, Eagles and Lions. Dropping another game would not officially bury them in the wild card race... but make it very hard to get into it. Fortunately (or maybe not depending how you look at it) enough.. the Seahawks still control their own destiny for the most part down the stretch. 5 of their last games are in the division.. 4 of them against Arizona and San Francisco. They take care of those.. they will be in the playoffs. They dont? Well.. we won't play again in 2015 until August.

The Seahawks playoffs start Sunday.

Detroit (7-3) at New England (8-2)
Following their tough loss to Arizona, the Lions schedule doesn't get any easier as they will go on the road to face the red hot Patriots (who at the moment of posting this lead the Colts by 11). Now.. before you automatically go "well no crap, we want the Patriots to win!" .. consider this...

- The Seahawks would lose a tie-breaker with the Lions right now, if both teams wound up tied at the end of the year. A loss to the Patriots doesn't hurt the Lions at all in the key stat: Conference record

- The Seahawks would beat the Packers in a tie-breaker for a wild card and/or seeding due to that win in Week 1

- Playing at Detroit would be much better than playing at Green Bay

For these reasons.. a Lions win over the Patriots would actually be more beneficial in the long run. Especially when you consider the Lions remaining schedule following the Patriots game becomes incredibly easy until their final matchup in Week 17 against.. you guessed it.. the Packers.

So really. The Lions are friends. Not foes. Not yet anyway.

Who you should root for: Detroit

Packers (7-3) at Vikings (4-6)
The Packers look utterly frightening right now. IMO they are the team to beat in the NFC barring an injury to Aaron Rodgers. And as I alluded to in the previous preview, we really do not want to see this team get a bye and/or HFA. I don't care how well the Seahawks have played the Packers of late.. those games were at the Clink and not in Lambeau on a brutally cold winter day.

The Vikings beating the Packers would be the biggest upset of the year.. and I don't expect it to happen. But sometimes weird things happen in this league. The Packers are a team we have tie-breakers over.. so staying close to them is very important. Go Vikings go! You owe us for giving us Bevell, fleecing us for Harvin, stealing Hutchinson .. and on and on.

Who you should root for: Minnesota

Titans (2-8/3-7) at Eagles (7-3)

The Titans are really a miserable team.. and firmly in the hunt for a Top 3 pick. Asking them to go into Philadelphia and pull off a ginormous upset is probably a bit much.. but.. we shall do so, as the Seahawks would get in over the Eagles in a tie. Go flaming thumbtacks!

Who you should root for: Tennessee and an act of God

Redskins (3-7) at 49ers (6-4)

No long winded paragraph needed here. It's simple.

Who you should root for: The politically incorrect moniker for Native Americans

Cowboys (7-3) at Giants (3-7)

The Cowboys have the H2H tie-breaker over the Seahawks, so once again.. we count on *sigh* the Giants to try and not suck for ONE game. Granted if they gave up 350 rushing yards to us.. DeMarco Murray may do that on his own Sunday night.. but stranger things have happened!

Who you should root for: The Fightin' Eli's

Ravens (6-4) at Saints (4-6)
Browns (6-4) at Falcons (4-6)
Bucs (2-8) at Bears (4-6)

I lumped the whole NFC South into one, because this division is too much of a joke to separate into their own respective capsules. The Falcons are 0-6 outside of the NFC South, and 4-0 inside of it. The Bucs.. despite getting drubbed by everyone.. are 2 games out of first. The Saints are tied for first at 4-6, but because of a H2H loss against Atlanta.. they would miss the playoffs. AND ONE OF THESE TEAMS WILL GET TO HOST A PLAYOFF GAME!

Really .. the only NFC South team that may not lose in Week 12 is Carolina and that's because they're off. I stand by what I said last week though in that facing the Falcons or Panthers is far better than a bad karma wild card matchup against a sub .500 Saints team. The sick twisted part of me really wants to see Tampa win and Atlanta and NO lose to make it an even tighter race.

Who you should root for: Everyone but New Orleans.

NFC Playoff Standings w/Seattle win and likely outcomes in other games..
1) Arizona - (9-2)
2) Green Bay - (8-3)* Clinches first-round bye due to H2H win over Philadelphia
3) Philadelphia - (8-3)
4) Atlanta - (4-7)
5) Dallas - (8-3)
6) Detroit - (7-4)* Clinches wild card spot over SF, SEA due to conference record tie-breaker

...
7.) Seattle - (7-4)* Leaps SF due to division record (1-1) vs. (1-2)
8.) San Francisco - (7-4)
 

Natethegreat

Well-known member
Joined
May 7, 2012
Messages
2,566
Reaction score
392
Don't agree about rooting for Detroit. Too many games left to assume we can't pass them. Not to mention they still have a game left against Green bay were I will definitely be rooting for them which would make it real tough for green Bay to win the division.
 
OP
OP
Hasselbeck

Hasselbeck

New member
Joined
May 2, 2009
Messages
11,397
Reaction score
4
Natethegreat":18cx36ve said:
Don't agree about rooting for Detroit. Too many games left to assume we can't pass them. Not to mention they still have a game left against Green bay were I will definitely be rooting for them which would make it real tough for green Bay to win the division.

Fair enough. Will probably be a common stance. Just using likely wins and comparing schedules.. and moderate fear of the Packers at Lambeau ;)
 

MidwestHawker

New member
Joined
Apr 30, 2009
Messages
2,046
Reaction score
0
Location
Indianapolis
At least from a pointspread perspective, unless Packers-Vikings line shifts dramatically, an upset still wouldn't be bigger than Rams-Niners was. That was a double-digit spread.

(I'm nitpicking though. I appreciate the effort put into compiling this.)
 

NFSeahawks

New member
Joined
Sep 13, 2009
Messages
4,714
Reaction score
0
Hasselbeck":265owb69 said:
The last two games of the weekend are both AFC interconference contests.. so we can assess the damage of today's loss to KC.. and as figured, we have a long trek ahead of us to get into the playoffs, much less the conversation of a division win and/or bye. Arizona has now built a two game (and for all intents and purposes a 3 game) lead for HFA with their win over the Lions.. so if the Seahawks want to catch them they should probably get to movin'.

Here are the playoff standings after Week 11's action

1 - Arizona - (9-1)
2 - Detroit - (7-3)* - Clinches NFC North via H2H win over Packers

3 - Philadelphia - (7-3)* - Clinches NFC East via better division record
4 - Atlanta - (4-6)* - Clinches NFC South via better division record, H2H win over Saints
5 - Green Bay - (7-3) - Clinches top wild card with better conference record than Cowboys
6 - Dallas - (7-3)
___________
In the hunt:
7 - San Francisco - (6-4)* - Above Seattle due to better division record
8 - Seattle - (6-4)

New Orleans (4-6)/Carolina (4-6-1) .. only listed because of NFC South division race

Key Week 12 NFC Games

Arizona (9-1) at Seattle (6-4)
Obviously goes without saying. This really could be our season right here. The Seahawks need to keep pace with not only the Cardinals, but the 49ers, Cowboys, Packers, Eagles and Lions. Dropping another game would not officially bury them in the wild card race... but make it very hard to get into it. Fortunately (or maybe not depending how you look at it) enough.. the Seahawks still control their own destiny for the most part down the stretch. 5 of their last games are in the division.. 4 of them against Arizona and San Francisco. They take care of those.. they will be in the playoffs. They dont? Well.. we won't play again in 2015 until August.

The Seahawks playoffs start Sunday.

Detroit (7-3) at New England (7-3/8-2)
Following their tough loss to Arizona, the Lions schedule doesn't get any easier as they will go on the road to face the red hot Patriots (who at the moment of posting this lead the Colts by 11). Now.. before you automatically go "well no crap, we want the Patriots to win!" .. consider this...

- The Seahawks would lose a tie-breaker with the Lions right now, if both teams wound up tied at the end of the year. A loss to the Patriots doesn't hurt the Lions at all in the key stat: Conference record

- The Seahawks would beat the Packers in a tie-breaker for a wild card and/or seeding due to that win in Week 1

- Playing at Detroit would be much better than playing at Green Bay

For these reasons.. a Lions win over the Patriots would actually be more beneficial in the long run. Especially when you consider the Lions remaining schedule following the Patriots game becomes incredibly easy until their final matchup in Week 17 against.. you guessed it.. the Packers.

So really. The Lions are friends. Not foes. Not yet anyway.

Who you should root for: Detroit

Packers (7-3) at Vikings (4-6)
The Packers look utterly frightening right now. IMO they are the team to beat in the NFC barring an injury to Aaron Rodgers. And as I alluded to in the previous preview, we really do not want to see this team get a bye and/or HFA. I don't care how well the Seahawks have played the Packers of late.. those games were at the Clink and not in Lambeau on a brutally cold winter day.

The Vikings beating the Packers would be the biggest upset of the year.. and I don't expect it to happen. But sometimes weird things happen in this league. The Packers are a team we have tie-breakers over.. so staying close to them is very important. Go Vikings go! You owe us for giving us Bevell, fleecing us for Harvin, stealing Hutchinson .. and on and on.

Who you should root for: Minnesota

Titans (2-8/3-7) at Eagles (7-3)

The Titans are really a miserable team.. and firmly in the hunt for a Top 3 pick. Asking them to go into Philadelphia and pull off a ginormous upset is probably a bit much.. but.. we shall do so, as the Seahawks would get in over the Eagles in a tie. Go flaming thumbtacks!

Who you should root for: Tennessee and an act of God

Redskins (3-7) at 49ers (6-4)

No long winded paragraph needed here. It's simple.

Who you should root for: The politically incorrect moniker for Native Americans

Cowboys (7-3) at Giants (3-7)

The Cowboys have the H2H tie-breaker over the Seahawks, so once again.. we count on *sigh* the Giants to try and not suck for ONE game. Granted if they gave up 350 rushing yards to us.. DeMarco Murray may do that on his own Sunday night.. but stranger things have happened!

Who you should root for: The Fightin' Eli's

Ravens (6-4) at Saints (4-6)
Browns (6-4) at Falcons (4-6)
Bucs (2-8) at Bears (4-6)

I lumped the whole NFC South into one, because this division is too much of a joke to separate into their own respective capsules. The Falcons are 0-6 outside of the NFC South, and 4-0 inside of it. The Bucs.. despite getting drubbed by everyone.. are 2 games out of first. The Saints are tied for first at 4-6, but because of a H2H loss against Atlanta.. they would miss the playoffs. AND ONE OF THESE TEAMS WILL GET TO HOST A PLAYOFF GAME!

Really .. the only NFC South team that may not lose in Week 12 is Carolina and that's because they're off. I stand by what I said last week though in that facing the Falcons or Panthers is far better than a bad karma wild card matchup against a sub .500 Saints team. The sick twisted part of me really wants to see Tampa win and Atlanta and NO lose to make it an even tighter race.

Who you should root for: Everyone but New Orleans.

NFC Playoff Standings w/Seattle win and likely outcomes in other games..
1) Arizona - (9-2)
2) Green Bay - (8-3)* Clinches first-round bye due to H2H win over Philadelphia
3) Philadelphia - (8-3)
4) Atlanta - (4-7)
5) Dallas - (8-3)
6) Detroit - (7-4)* Clinches wild card spot over SF, SEA due to conference record tie-breaker

...

7) San Francisco - (7-4)
8.) Seattle - (7-4)

I like this graph thank you, but I disagree on wanting anyone above us to win. We want New England to trash the Lions which they will based on where the Lions are in relation to us. Anyway you can get in, is the way it goes.

The bolded part of your scenario if everyone wins is incorrect as well. Seattle would be ranked 7th based on a better divisional record than San Francisco, which likely will play out to the end of the season, assuming a 1-1 split with SF. If not division it will look at conference which also favors us at the moment.

Detroit would win a wild card tie breaker over Seattle due to their SOV or strength of victory.

Given Detroit's soft schedule it is somewhat unlikely to expect any losses outside of the Green Bay game.
Green Bay also has a soft schedule, which likely sees them through.

This leaves one spot for a remaining wild card team, in which we now would like to see the Eagles tank.

Eagles schedule
vs Tennessee
@Dallas
vs Seattle
vs Dallas
@ Washington
@ New York

Philadelphia is poor on the road and I expect them to have at least 3 losses if not 4 to end the season putting them at 10-6, 9-7.

A split with San Francisco sees Seattle move through as the number 6 seed with a possibility to reach the number 5 seed.

I see a likely rematch with the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas.

1. Arizona
2. Green Bay
3. Dallas
4. Atlanta
5. Detroit
6. Seattle

7. San Fran
8. Philly
 
OP
OP
Hasselbeck

Hasselbeck

New member
Joined
May 2, 2009
Messages
11,397
Reaction score
4
Great catch on the scenario if we win + likely outcomes. Totally slipped my mind when I was typing it that the Niners are 1-2 in the division.

I disagree on Detroit.. but to each their own

Agree on Philly. And low and behold, we have a shot to hand them a possible crippling blow here in a few weeks.

Nonetheless.. we HAVE to beat Arizona.. cause next week doesn't look like it will do us many favors sad to say, as most of the teams ahead of us have softer games than we do.
 

NFSeahawks

New member
Joined
Sep 13, 2009
Messages
4,714
Reaction score
0
Hasselbeck":2trrt6qg said:
Great catch on the scenario if we win + likely outcomes. Totally slipped my mind when I was typing it that the Niners are 1-2 in the division.

I disagree on Detroit.. but to each their own

Agree on Philly. And low and behold, we have a shot to hand them a possible crippling blow here in a few weeks.

Nonetheless.. we HAVE to beat Arizona.. cause next week doesn't look like it will do us many favors sad to say, as most of the teams ahead of us have softer games than we do.

Exactly, but I like it that way. Our backs are against the wall, we have to win and we will.
 
Top