I keep adding these lengthy responses in other threads, so I figured this needed it's own thread.
We're not in as bad of shape as some here are saying. We have 5 divisional games left, and 6 conference games left. Obviously, if we ran the table, we'd have 12 wins and be in the playoffs for sure, with a likely divisional bye or home game. Here's the break down:
Arizona. We're going to need some help, as of now if we do what we can control, and sweep them, then we're sitting at 8 wins and they have 3 losses, which is still less than us. So, say they win every game but the 2 against us, and we win out...they will take the division with a 13-3 record, while we have a 12-4 record. If they lose one additional game, and we win out, then we'll be tied and we own the tiebreaker due to head to head. Like I said, we need help with this one.
Philly.. They have 7 wins, and currently are in 1st place in their division. They have one game against us, and at least one against each of their division rivals, as well as the Titans next week. So, the Titans are a gimme. They have two games left against Dallas. The Redskins and Giants game are both away, so even though they look like automatics...they are away games. At this point they only have a one game lead on us for a WC spot and we play them once.
Dallas. They have 7 wins, and own the head to head tiebreak against us. For this reason, we need them to win their division. They have 2 games against Philly, @Giants, @Redskins, @Chicago, and Colts at home. I'd like to see them win the division, as if they get knocked out, we'd have to be better than them by a game. Slightly tougher road than Philly.
Detroit. They have 7 wins. This is why I think the 1st WC spot goes to the NFC North. They also have tougher opponents, but an easier schedule. They're @NE, and @ GB. They've beat GB once so far. After that, it's Chicago twice, Vikings once, and TB once. Other than the NE and GB games, their schedule is a cake walk.
GB. They have 7 wins. We're rooting for the Lions, as we own the head to head against GB. They have NE @ home, @ Vikings, Falcons, @ Buffalo, @ Bucs, and Lions @ home. The only teams I see beating them this year are NE and Lions. They've also outscored opponents 169 to 95 and are one of the hottest teams in the league right now.
Niners. They have 6 wins, and are in 2nd place in our division. The reason they're in 2nd place is they have a 1-2 divisional record, where we have an 0-1 record. Thing is, the Niners actually have a -1 points differential for the year. We don't have to sweep them to win the division, or a WC, but it helps. I theorize that we'll need to win at least one, and we'll get help from other teams. Thing is, they have a MUCH easier schedule here on out than we do: they get us twice, Redskins @ home, @Raiders, SD @ home, and Cards @ home. The cool thing is that last game helps us either way. Best case scenario for us is that we sweep them, and the only other probable losses they have are Chargers and Cards, which put them at 8-8. Say they hang a loss on the Cards, well that only gives them 9 wins and not a likely WC. This is why I say we don't have to sweep the Niners: if we hang a loss on them, and they lose to Chargers and Cards, best they can do is 9 wins. If we beat them, sweep cards and beat either Philly or STL, we have 10 wins. Thing is, there's no other lose able games for them outside of that, so they HAVE to lose to the Chargers or we have to sweep them. I honestly think we can sweep them.
So we're close. It's pretty simple: if we sweep the Cards and Niners, we are most likely into a WC slot. We can trade a Niners win for a Philly win. I'm assuming an automatic win vs. STL @home. That's the only gimme we have....we have the toughest remaining schedule by far in the NFC. We also only have 3 home games left.
I'm not going to say it's easy, but we're not out of it, and it's not that far out of reach.
We're not in as bad of shape as some here are saying. We have 5 divisional games left, and 6 conference games left. Obviously, if we ran the table, we'd have 12 wins and be in the playoffs for sure, with a likely divisional bye or home game. Here's the break down:
Arizona. We're going to need some help, as of now if we do what we can control, and sweep them, then we're sitting at 8 wins and they have 3 losses, which is still less than us. So, say they win every game but the 2 against us, and we win out...they will take the division with a 13-3 record, while we have a 12-4 record. If they lose one additional game, and we win out, then we'll be tied and we own the tiebreaker due to head to head. Like I said, we need help with this one.
Philly.. They have 7 wins, and currently are in 1st place in their division. They have one game against us, and at least one against each of their division rivals, as well as the Titans next week. So, the Titans are a gimme. They have two games left against Dallas. The Redskins and Giants game are both away, so even though they look like automatics...they are away games. At this point they only have a one game lead on us for a WC spot and we play them once.
Dallas. They have 7 wins, and own the head to head tiebreak against us. For this reason, we need them to win their division. They have 2 games against Philly, @Giants, @Redskins, @Chicago, and Colts at home. I'd like to see them win the division, as if they get knocked out, we'd have to be better than them by a game. Slightly tougher road than Philly.
Detroit. They have 7 wins. This is why I think the 1st WC spot goes to the NFC North. They also have tougher opponents, but an easier schedule. They're @NE, and @ GB. They've beat GB once so far. After that, it's Chicago twice, Vikings once, and TB once. Other than the NE and GB games, their schedule is a cake walk.
GB. They have 7 wins. We're rooting for the Lions, as we own the head to head against GB. They have NE @ home, @ Vikings, Falcons, @ Buffalo, @ Bucs, and Lions @ home. The only teams I see beating them this year are NE and Lions. They've also outscored opponents 169 to 95 and are one of the hottest teams in the league right now.
Niners. They have 6 wins, and are in 2nd place in our division. The reason they're in 2nd place is they have a 1-2 divisional record, where we have an 0-1 record. Thing is, the Niners actually have a -1 points differential for the year. We don't have to sweep them to win the division, or a WC, but it helps. I theorize that we'll need to win at least one, and we'll get help from other teams. Thing is, they have a MUCH easier schedule here on out than we do: they get us twice, Redskins @ home, @Raiders, SD @ home, and Cards @ home. The cool thing is that last game helps us either way. Best case scenario for us is that we sweep them, and the only other probable losses they have are Chargers and Cards, which put them at 8-8. Say they hang a loss on the Cards, well that only gives them 9 wins and not a likely WC. This is why I say we don't have to sweep the Niners: if we hang a loss on them, and they lose to Chargers and Cards, best they can do is 9 wins. If we beat them, sweep cards and beat either Philly or STL, we have 10 wins. Thing is, there's no other lose able games for them outside of that, so they HAVE to lose to the Chargers or we have to sweep them. I honestly think we can sweep them.
So we're close. It's pretty simple: if we sweep the Cards and Niners, we are most likely into a WC slot. We can trade a Niners win for a Philly win. I'm assuming an automatic win vs. STL @home. That's the only gimme we have....we have the toughest remaining schedule by far in the NFC. We also only have 3 home games left.
I'm not going to say it's easy, but we're not out of it, and it's not that far out of reach.
