10-6 Likely won't do it, even as WC (interactive bracket)

http://raylehnhoff.github.io/nflschedul ... AAAAAAAAA_

That should give you a filled out bracket up till where we are at in the season.

Going through and just filling in the teams that will likely be favored in each matchup, the 49ers actually end up a game or two better than Seattle.

I also hate to break it to a lot of people here but even at 10-6, we're going to have a hard time making it in as a wild card. Even if we sweep the 49ers, if we both wind up 10-6, the way that tie-breakers work out, we both end up on the outside looking in in many scenarios.

Fact of the matter is that 11-5 is about the point where we need to get too, but going 5-1 over the next 6 games is a tall order.

Anyhow, this is just logic and reason taking place, so please dont hammer me with "ANOTHER BANDWAGON DOWNER POST?". I just figured I would share the bracket and my findings.

I said last week that I thought our best chance of getting into the playoffs was to win the West, but now that we're three full games out that looks very daunting, even with beating Arizona on Sunday.

IMO if we don't make the playoffs the Dallas loss will stand out as the one we couldn't afford to lose for tie breakers, and makes the Eagles game a must win if we can get there at 8-4, which is probably what they'll be in three weeks..............ALSO a tall order to win Sunday and win @ SF.

It's still possible but quite obviously with the state of our injuries and the schedule it is a tough task for realz.... :roll:

the way I see it now we're best served if Dallas and Detroit win their divisions. We likely won't win the west at this point as Arizona continues to play well, so we are looking at a wild card.

We own a head to head win over Green Bay so putting them int he wild card mix gives us an edge if we end up with similar records.

We lose the same tie-breaker with Dallas since they beat us, so it behooves us to just have them win the division, hoping we pick up that H2H with Philly.

the NFC south shouldn't really factor in, other than that someone is going to win it, somehow.

To me, the Rams loss hurts the most as it should have been won and it was in the Division. A couple special teams failures and poof. Especially considering what the Rams have done to other teams.

10 wins will win atleast the second wild card spot. 2 of Lions, Eagles, Cowboys, 9ers, Seahawks are not getting 11 wins. Wouldbnt be far fetched to suggest none of them will get to 11 wins.

Uncle Si":p9s49qox said:

10 wins will win atleast the second wild card spot. 2 of Lions, Eagles, Cowboys, 9ers, Seahawks are not getting 11 wins. Wouldbnt be far fetched to suggest none of them will get to 11 wins.

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I enjoy your posts. I know being a sarcastic douche is en vogue around here, but I speak from the heart, sir!

Uncle Si":23ovd1vo said:

10 wins will win atleast the second wild card spot. 2 of Lions, Eagles, Cowboys, 9ers, Seahawks are not getting 11 wins. Wouldbnt be far fetched to suggest none of them will get to 11 wins.

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The problem is if we go 4-2 with wins against Cards, Niners, Rams at home then one road win we still lose just about all the tie breakers due to a bad conference record right now.

So if we get the six seed, it'll be because the one road win is against the Niners or Eagles, who also finish 10-6.

One game at a time. I refuse to give up and/or let myself believe they can't make it. Until they are officially eliminated, I believe.

I'm interested to see the playoff odds that Nate Silver releases this week.

Three weeks ago (after the loss to St. Louis) he said we had a 77% to make the playoffs if we went 10-6.

Last week, his simulations had us beating Kansas City 51% of the time and overall a 61% chance we make the playoffs.

Uncle Si":306o40zh said:

10 wins will win atleast the second wild card spot. 2 of Lions, Eagles, Cowboys, 9ers, Seahawks are not getting 11 wins. Wouldbnt be far fetched to suggest none of them will get to 11 wins.

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I would take a look at the schedules those teams have left before you say that.

the 49ers in particular have a pretty soft schedule, not just because of opponents - but the 49ers don't leave the west coast for the rest of the year:

Washington
Seattle
@Oakland (same city they are already in basically)
@Seattle (short trip up the coast)
San Diego
Arizona

11-5 isn't too far fetched, especially if you assume a split with Seattle.

The Lions have four games remaining against the Bears (2), Tampa Bay, and Minnesota. Even if they drop one of those games they should win, they could split in their @NE and @GB games and get 11 wins anyways.

The Eagles play Washington, the Giants, and the Titans - they should win all 3 of those games. They also play us at home, which they should be favored in. They play two games with Dallas that the money would probably be on a split - so 11 or 12 wins for Philly isn't unreasonable. If they beat us, that gives them a head to head if we both end up 10-6.

Dallas has Washington, the Giants, the Bears - all winnable; then two games with Philly and one at home against indy. If they win all 3 games they should win, and go 1-2 against philly and indy, that's 11. They own a head to head with us if we both end up 10-6.

The one thing Seattle has going for it is that it only has 2 conference losses; Aside from Arizona with 0, the only other team there is Detroit with 2 as well. Unfortunately all of seattle's opponents are NFC teams and they are all good.

10-6 doesn't win a wild card spot by a long shot, and even 11-5, which would be incredibly difficult to get too from 6-4, it's not guaranteed.

Vs. Arizona- Win
@ SF - Loss
@ Philly - Win
Vs. SF - Win
@ Arizona - Win
Vs. STL - Win

This could win us the division at 11-5. We would just need Arizona to go 2-2 in their other 4 games and we would own all the tiebreakers with this scenario. #1 or #2 seed are not even out of the question yet. Anything is possible, we're still in it.

SF remaining schedule outside of the division is pretty favorable. These head to heads in division are going to decide who wins the West.

Hard to believe out of our remaining 6 games, 5 are against the NFC West.

Hawknballs":17e9vf8c said:

http://raylehnhoff.github.io/nflschedulepicker/?a=-alqZpaalaahZmqZWlZpqqlqmqVpWVmppqamamWlqlmapWZamqaqVpBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA_

That should give you a filled out bracket up till where we are at in the season.

Going through and just filling in the teams that will likely be favored in each matchup, the 49ers actually end up a game or two better than Seattle.

I also hate to break it to a lot of people here but even at 10-6, we're going to have a hard time making it in as a wild card. Even if we sweep the 49ers, if we both wind up 10-6, the way that tie-breakers work out, we both end up on the outside looking in in many scenarios.

Fact of the matter is that 11-5 is about the point where we need to get too, but going 5-1 over the next 6 games is a tall order.

Anyhow, this is just logic and reason taking place, so please dont hammer me with "ANOTHER BANDWAGON DOWNER POST?". I just figured I would share the bracket and my findings.

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So...are you tucking your hawknballs now?

How about enjoy the rest of the season and see how things shake out.

Um, there are 6 games left. And they are only ONE game behind Philly, Detroit, Green Bay and Dallas. And are tied with Santa Clara. They certainly have a chance.

I'm telling you all know, Arizona begins an epic collapse starting this week. And, riding that momentum we are going to win @Frisco thanksgiving night.

RunTheBall":1dbuwdr0 said:

Anything is possible, we're still in it.

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I never said otherwise.

This board is hilarious after a loss. Can't present any arguments as to why the Seahawks won't go 19-0 every year without everyone losing their cool.

And looking at the Cards remaining schedule, they have some tough games. Screw them, their coach, and their fans.

SoulfishHawk":120vd1t7 said:

One game at a time. I refuse to give up and/or let myself believe they can't make it. Until they are officially eliminated, I believe.

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I agree one game at a time , if the Hawks do not make the playoffs i agree from a previous thread the Cowboys game that got away, and I guess you can even talk about the game yesterday with the chiefs , 4th and goal if that chiefs defender was not there. touchdown Seahawks. and they win , every game has to be a playoff games for the hawks know.

Sgt. Largent":2jfsqjs2 said:

Uncle Si":2jfsqjs2 said:

10 wins will win atleast the second wild card spot. 2 of Lions, Eagles, Cowboys, 9ers, Seahawks are not getting 11 wins. Wouldbnt be far fetched to suggest none of them will get to 11 wins.

Click to expand...

The problem is if we go 4-2 with wins against Cards, Niners, Rams at home then one road win we still lose just about all the tie breakers due to a bad conference record right now.

So if we get the six seed, it'll be because the one road win is against the Niners or Eagles, who also finish 10-6.

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Not sure where you're going with this. Right now our conference record is better than any of the teams in the WC race.

Philly: .571 % 7 conf. games played
Dallas: .571 % 7 conf. games played
Packers: .625 % 8 conf. games played
SF: .625 % 8 conf. games played
Lions: .714 7 conf. games played.
Arizona 1.000% 7 conf. games played


Seattle: .667% 6 conf. games played.

Our schedule was front loaded with AFC contenders. We're back loaded with divisional games and conference games. matter of fact, we play an NFC team every game from here on out. So, we have a better winning % than most of the WC contenders, and we've played less games. Which means, from a conference record, we're front runners. They have less games to make up their winning %. If we keep winning ours, they can't catch up.

The only reason we're 3rd in division is that we're tied with SF record wise, but we're 0-1 in division for a 0% winning record. They're ahead of us with a 1-2 divisional record for a .333% divisional record. If anyone would want to switch places with them, they're fools (outside of their easier schedule).

Now, can we win all these games with all of our injuries ? I'm not sure. We'd have to play the best football we're capable of, plus get help from the coaches with well put together game plans, which we don't seem to be getting on the offensive side of the ball (defensively, I didn't like our scheme last week either). But for the folks who keep saying we're screwed already, and we're out of it......just stop. We control our destiny, which is where you want to be 10 games into the season.