My first pass at a playoff outlook; Go 'Boys n Lions?

NFC Playoff Picture:

The Favorites:

Dallas
Philadelphia
Detroit
Green Bay
(Winner of the NFC South)
Arizona

In the Mix:

Seattle
San Francisco

Statistically Alive:

St. Louis
Chicago
Minnesota

Not Worth the Math Headache:

NY Giants
Washington
(Everyone in the NFC South)

It’s not likely Seattle will win the NFC West, and the recipe for doing so is fairly easy and not really worth the analysis – start winning and hope Arizona (and SF) start losing. So, let’s take a look at the rest of the playoff teams and figure out some best case scenarios.

NFC EAST:

Dallas:

@NY Giants (W)
Philadelphia (W)
@Chicago (W)
@Philadelphia (L)
Vs. Indianapolis (L)
@Washington (W)

Projected Finish: 11-5
Wild Card

I see the Cowboys splitting two critical games with the Eagles, losing one at home to Indy whom is familiar and confident playing indoor games, and beating two teams they should beat in the Giants and Bears.

Philadelphia:

@Tennessee (W)
@Dallas (L)
Seattle (W)
Dallas (W)
@Washington (W)
@NY Giants (W)

Projected Finish: 12-4
NFC East Champion
#3 Seed (Head to Head Losses to GB and AZ)

With the exception of a game against Seattle at home, and a home/away pair of matchups with Dallas, Philly adds three games they should win and will be favored in. I give them the nod over our Seahawks because Philly will almost assuredly be favored at home.

Dallas vs. Philly in regards to SEA based on projection:

Seattle loses a tie-breaker with Dallas, so realistically speaking, unless one of these teams begins an unlikely fall out of the playoff picture, it’s best if Dallas wins the NFC East so we aren’t competing with them for a wild card.

Unfortunately It’s not quite as simple as Seattle beating Philadelphia to send both teams to 11-5, because the Eagles would still hold a one-game advantage in terms of division record. So, if both teams were 11-5, one of Philly’s losses would need to be against Washington or the Giants. That would send the tie-breaker to record against common opponents; however it’s going to be tough to get there.

Dallas currently has a 6-3 record against common opponents, with 3 games left to play in which I predict they’ll go 2-1 for a total of 8-4.

Philadelphia is 6-2 against common opponents, with 4 games left to play. I have Philly favored in all those games, but in our above scenario they need to lose to WAS or NYG anyways. They would also need to lose two more of them to lose this tie-breaker, which would also eliminate the need for a tie-breaker in the first place.

Best Case:
Dallas Sweeps Philly + Seattle beats Philly.

End Result:

Looks like we are rooting for Dallas and against Philly the rest of the way, because we don’t want to end up in a tie-breaker for a wild card with Dallas.

NFC North:

Green Bay:

@Minnesota (W)
New England (L)
Atlanta (W)
@Buffalo (W)
@Tampa Bay (W)
Detroit (W)

Projected Finish: 12-4
NFC North Champion
#2 Seed (Head to Head over Philly, Common Opponents conceded to AZ)

Almost hard to find a loss on the schedule for the Packer’s remaining games. If there’s one team I can’t just chalk up an automatic loss for, it’s the Patriots. The only other close game might be Detroit, but I think the Packers handle that business at home.

Detroit:

@New England (L)
Chicago (W)
Tampa Bay (W)
Minnesota (W)
@Chicago (W)
@Green Bay (L)

Projected Finish: 11-5
Wild Card

Likewise, not a rough schedule for the Lions. They are a dome team traveling to New England so I’ll give them a loss there and another to GB.

Green Bay vs. Detroit in regards to SEA based on projection:

Now we run into the opposite problem, where Seattle owns a tie-breaker over the team slated to win the division. If Detroit can buck my projection and turn that last game @Green Bay into a win, that would certainly help. In any event, we need Detroit to win the division, and we need Green bay to lose at least three more games – which might be too much to ask for.

Best Case Scenario:

Lions take the division; Green Bay finishes tied or below SEA in wins.

End Result:

Root for Detroit to win and GB to lose.

NFC West:

Arizona

@Seattle (L)
@Atlanta (W)
Kansas City (W)
@St. Louis (L)
Seattle (W)
@SF (L)

Projected Finish: 12-4
NFC West Champion
#1 Seed (Head to Head over Dallas; Common Opponents over GB)

For the sake of projections and how competitively the NFC west teams play each other, we’re just assuming road losses. The Kansas City game could be interesting but the advantage goes to the home team.

San Francisco

Washington (W)
Seattle (W)
@Oakland (W)
@Seattle (L)
San Diego (L)
Arizona (W)

Projected Finish: 10-6

Four of the 49ers last six games are at home, and one of the road games is against Oakland, which is basically a home game when it comes to travel. The other trip is just up to Seattle, a short flight – who’s butt did these guys kiss to get a great schedule to finish the year? I still don’t see them beating Seattle in Seattle, and they could have a tough time with the Chargers.

Seattle:

Arizona (W)
@SF (L)
@Philadelphia (L)
SF (W)
@Arizona (L)
St. Louis (W)

Projected Finish: 9-7

Don’t shoot the messenger – I’m a fan and as far as I’m concerned it’s mathematically possible to still get the #1 seed. But Seattle has by far the toughest schedule to wrap up the season out of all 32 teams, and I’m just going with what the general consensus will be.

Seattle vs. Arizona vs. San Francisco based on projections

This division is the most important but also the easiest to sort out, because we obviously want Arizona and SF to lose while Seattle wins. Pretty cut and dried. That could change a bit as the season wraps up because Seattle plays both teams twice. Arizona at SF to end the season could mean we’re rooting for the Cardinals to hand the 49ers a loss, but until then It’s pretty straight forward.

Unfortunately the projections make it difficult to see Seattle having much of a shot.

Best Case Scenario:
SF & AZ lose, SEA wins

NFC South:

The NFC South isn’t worth getting into as 4-6 Atlanta leads that sorry division at the moment. Unless multiple teams go on winning streaks, no wild card is coming from that division. In that case we want one of those teams to be Carolina since we own the head to head, but we want the other team to actually win the division. The only rooting interest we have:

1. Carolina – we want them to win to boost our opponent win % in case it comes into tie-breaker play

2. Atlanta plays Arizona and Green Bay, so we’ll be rooting for them to win those games

3. Tampa plays Detroit and Green Bay. We’ll want them to lose to Detroit, but beat Green Bay to increase the chances that Detroit takes the NFC North and GB is put in a spot where they are competing with SEA for a wild card spot, where SEA holds the advantage

I suppose “Best Case” scenario sees Atlanta go on a tear to win the division since we need them to beat two good teams along the way, while Carolina hangs around in second place winning games to boost that win %.

Long Story Short:

If you still think Seattle has as hot to win the NFC West:

NFC East:

Root for Philly to win the division, knowing that we have to catch up to their win total and beat them when we play them. Dallas owns a tie-breaker over us.

NFC North:

Root for GB to win the division as we own a tie-breaker over them.

NFC West:

SEA to Win, AZ and SF to lose, SF over AZ in week 17

NFC South:

Carolina to win out (not necessary but helps in very rare circumstances)

If you think Seattle is Wild Card or Bust:

NFC East:

Root for Dallas to win and Philly to lose.

NFC North:

Root for Detroit to win and Green Bay to lose

NFC West:

Root for SEA to win and SF to lose and AZ to beat SF in week 17

NFC South:

Root for Carolina to take second place with as many wins as possible as long as they are equal to or less than Seattle’s win total (not necessary but helps in very rare circumstances). Or Carolina to win the division as long as no other team gets hot and undefeated the rest of the way (not likely)

Eagles going 12-4, LOL! Seahawks only winning 9 games? I'd love to take a bet on this crap. No way in hell the Eagles win 12 games.

RunTheBall":n7r4ed6e said:

Eagles going 12-4, LOL! Seahawks only winning 9 games? I'd love to take a bet on this crap. No way in hell the Eagles win 12 games.

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A baseline has to be established somewhere and this is based mostly on who I think will be favored in each game. Obviously I'm not psychic. But you have to start somewhere to further analyze it and break down what needs to happen. This has nothing to do with making predictions and all about setting up the scenarios we need to think about if we plan on making the playoffs.

Sorry if this 'crap' offends your delicate sensibilities. Useful post though, thanks for your input! Way to contribute.

The Eagles will drop another game on the road, I also think we beat them in Philadelphia. I ultimately think they will fade and Seattle will earn the last playoff spot.

Maybe I'm crazy but I full expect a 10-6 final record for the Seahawks and they get in over Philadelphia's 10-6 record due to the head to head win.

Seattle

L @ Arizona
L @ San Fran

10-6

Philly

L @ Dallas
L vs Seattle
L vs Dallas / @ Washington/NY Giants

10-6

I expect Arizona to fade big time down the stretch. In fact I think they lose to us and then go on the road to Atlanta and lose as well. I don't think the end up any better than 10-6. This division is still there for the taking with Palmer out imo.

NFSeahawks628":1qay9t4w said:

The Eagles will drop another game on the road, I also think we beat them in Philadelphia. I ultimately think they will fade and Seattle will earn the last playoff spot.

Maybe I'm crazy but I full expect a 10-6 final record for the Seahawks and they get in over Philadelphia's 10-6 record due to the head to head win.

Seattle

L @ Arizona
L @ San Fran

10-6

Philly

L @ Dallas
L vs Seattle
L vs Dallas / @ Washington/NY Giants

10-6

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That's a possibility. The hard part is if SF and either Detroit or GB end up 10-6 as well. Three-way tie-breakers get a little crazy.

There are some likely scenarios that happen where SEA and SF can both be 10-6 and neither team makes the playoffs.

SEA beating Philly becomes important because they will have a sweep if it's GB and Philly in a 3-way.

The part that sucks right now is that every other team in the mix has much more favorable schedules.

Natethegreat":36q069sx said:

I expect Arizona to fade big time down the stretch. In fact I think they lose to us and then go on the road to Atlanta and lose as well. I don't think the end up any better than 10-6. This division is still there for the taking with Palmer out imo.

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People have been saying this all season though. And lets not forget that AZ came into our house and beat us last season, and Palmer wasn't even a huge factor since he threw four picks or something like that.

It's possible - but I find it highly unlikely that Arizona goes 1-5 the rest of the way. Although, I guess it would be very arizona-ish of them to do so.

They have expected them to do so because they aren't all that great. They have a scrappy defense for sure but I see them as the Kansas City of last year. Went 9-0 then quickly faded down the stretch.

NFSeahawks628":184mwokl said:

The Eagles will drop another game on the road, I also think we beat them in Philadelphia. I ultimately think they will fade and Seattle will earn the last playoff spot.

Maybe I'm crazy but I full expect a 10-6 final record for the Seahawks and they get in over Philadelphia's 10-6 record due to the head to head win.

Seattle

L @ Arizona
L @ San Fran

10-6

Philly

L @ Dallas
L vs Seattle
L vs Dallas / @ Washington/NY Giants

10-6

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If this scenario played out there's a good chance the 49ers would get the 6th seed

Hawknballs: good post! You're realistic and I like it. Our schedule in the coming weeks is, as you said, the toughest of all 32 NFL teams. I think you may be overestimating Philly, but I can't say that with confidence. Foles was undoubtedly a huge loss, but Ryans going down for the season really hamstrung them. I think the Hawks go in to philly and run the ball down their throats. Or, at least I hope so. I also think Detroit drops at least one of their games to Chicago.

9 - 7 is a realistic possibility for the Hawks this year. I certainly hope it isn't reality, but thinking it impossible is foolish. That loss to STL stings.

Hawknballs":2sjyk1tx said:

Unfortunately It’s not quite as simple as Seattle beating Philadelphia to send both teams to 11-5, because the Eagles would still hold a one-game advantage in terms of division record. So, if both teams were 11-5, one of Philly’s losses would need to be against Washington or the Giants. That would send the tie-breaker to record against common opponents; however it’s going to be tough to get there.

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Confused on this bit. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe If Seattle beats Philly head-to-head, they win the tie-breaker regardless of divisional records.

You're right, that wasn't very clear. I was saying that if seattle beats Philadelphia and sends them to 11-5, the cowboys could still finish 11-5 as well, and the Eagles could win the division based on division record (because seattle handing philly a loss isn't a divisional loss for them) leaving us them to compete with the cowboys for the wild card, but the cowboys own the tie-breaker with us.

CodeWarrior":2w0crore said:

Hawknballs: good post! You're realistic and I like it. Our schedule in the coming weeks is, as you said, the toughest of all 32 NFL teams. I think you may be overestimating Philly, but I can't say that with confidence. Foles was undoubtedly a huge loss, but Ryans going down for the season really hamstrung them. I think the Hawks go in to philly and run the ball down their throats. Or, at least I hope so. I also think Detroit drops at least one of their games to Chicago.

9 - 7 is a realistic possibility for the Hawks this year. I certainly hope it isn't reality, but thinking it impossible is foolish. That loss to STL stings.

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Yeah I may be giving Philadelphia too much credit, and if we can win all our home games, and pick up a win there to go 10-6, and possibly even pick up a game on AZ or SF, we could make it into the playoffs. Really the only quality team Philly has beat this year is Indianapolis. At the same time though, they beat the teams the should beat and lose to quality teams. Their 3 losses are to AZ, SF, and GB all on the road. I honestly don't think Foles to Sanchez is a huge drop-off; Foles was great last season, this season he's already thrown 10 picks, has an 80 rating, and a completion percentage below 60; if that were Wilson everyone here would be losing their minds.

I think Sanchez is underestimated. His best receivers in NY were Holmes and Edwards - two guys who have basically washed out of the league. I'm not saying he's a superstar but the Jets have been a factory of dysfunction on offense for so long, I think it's probably as unfair to let that discredit him as much as it would be to blame the Seahawk's struggles on Wilson when we all know there are other issues at hand.

Thanks to the folks who understood that this wasn't an "OMG THIS IS WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN THE SKY IS FALLING" post. My intent was to really lay out a cookie-cutter picture of how I think things would turn out if everything in life and the NFL went according to script, but it often doesn't. Look at the Rams totally shutting down the Broncos. From that cookie cutter 'baseline' you can then at least start to formulate how things will need to go for the 'Hawks to make it into the playoffs. I by no means posted this with the intent of saying, "THE SEAHAWKS SUCK AND WILL BE 9-7!".

double post or something? weird.

I have a hard time seeing Philly, with Sanchez beating Seattle. Carroll knows him as well as anyone and I think we run all over them. I could be wrong but I would be surprised if Philly beats us.

Thanks for taking the time to post though, interesting read!

Exploding":1io59ztq said:

RunTheBall":1io59ztq said:

Hawknballs":1io59ztq said:

RunTheBall":1io59ztq said:

Eagles going 12-4, LOL! Seahawks only winning 9 games? I'd love to take a bet on this crap. No way in hell the Eagles win 12 games.

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A baseline has to be established somewhere and this is based mostly on who I think will be favored in each game. Obviously I'm not psychic. But you have to start somewhere to further analyze it and break down what needs to happen. This has nothing to do with making predictions and all about setting up the scenarios we need to think about if we plan on making the playoffs.



I think its posts like this that prompted Kearly to stop posting content here on .NET. The guy clearly invested a lot of time into this, if you disagree, why don't you add some value and do one yourself instead?

Yeah its a bummer that he projects us at 9-7, but its a reality we have to face. We are missing vital pieces in each phase of the game - frankly it is a testament to the team itself that a 9-7 record is still possible with our injury luck and the schedule we played this year....

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I agree, RunTheBall is way off base here and we have to let him know. This is a well thought out post and is intended as fodder for discussion. He doesn't deserve attitude.

SC

Crunching all the different scenarios.. it boils down to this:

The only way we get in at 9-7 or 10-6: We must be in a 4-way tie involving any combo of teams. in this instance, we would get into the playoffs.

If we finish 11-5/12-4: Guaranteed spot. Whether via division crown or wild card

So basically the best case scenario is to win. Our margin of error is virtually zero at this point

Mark Sanchez, Drew Stanton..

Those two teams will fall completely apart.. Its kind of already started, especially in Philly.

Stanton isnt winning in Seattle and Arizona will lose a lot of faith this weekend whereas Seattle will get a major moral boost before heading back home after a tough win in Frisco and mud stomping in Philly to the tune of a 9-4 record.

For the NFC North who wins is going to be irrelevant after this week, Seattle already owns the tie-breaker over GB and has about a 99.9999999% chance of owning the tie-breaker over Detroit via strength of victory and/or conference record if we just beat Arizona once out of the 2 games we play them. Really we just want Detroit and GB to lose as much as possible.

Edit: Actually you don't even need to go to strength of victory for us to win in a tie-breaker over Detroit.

Common Games (Minimum of 4)
@Carolina, Seattle Won, Det Lost
Vs. NYG, Seattle Won, Det Won
Vs. GB, Seattle Won, Det Won
@Arizona, Seattle ?, Det Lost

So we do have the tie-breaker over GB and Detroit.

Nice post, but I just see to many variables at this point to see those records for all those teams. Some games will be loses that we don't expect and visa versa.

I would guess Seattle wins between 9-11 games depending largely on how these next three games pan out. I see them going 2-1 at worst, but for some reason I could see them going 3-0 as well, not sure why with as many injures as they have, but all three teams seem beatable and AZ is the toughest at this point and that game is at home.

This is why losses against the Chargers, Rams, Cowboys and KC last week sting so bad. Those games were all winnable, but "possible" distractions (Harvin and Lynch), bad coaching/play calling, injuries, ill timed penalties and just bad special teams (against the Rams comes to mind) cost them 4 bad losses they win last year or at worst split.

I still think this is a playoff team, I just don't think they scare most other teams like they did last year with their punishing defense and smash mouth running game. FA subtractions, injuries and depth really killed this team this year, hopefully some of those things are able to be addressed in the offseason.