Shocked at our Toxic Differential

SalishHawkFan · Nov 28, 2014

For those that don't know, Toxic Differential is a stat that tracks a teams Giveaways/Takeaways and how many Big Plays they give up/have. Add those all up and you have Toxic Differential. Most of the teams that have won the Super Bowl have had a great Toxic Differential.

Last year, Seattle led the league in TD with 66. Second was Philly with 60. Denver had a TD of only 17.

As we all know, the Seahawks have nowhere near as many takeaways this year as we did last season. So it came as a bit of a shock to me when I looked up the league TD and found that Seattle leads the league with a TD of 55, on pace to have a TD of 72.....AND NOBODY ELSE IS EVEN CLOSE!!!

Denver, much improved over last year, is second with a Toxic Differential of only 28.

So how are we doing so much better? We only have a giveaway/takeaway differential of +9. We are doing it on Big Plays. Big Plays are any pass over 25 yds and any run over 10 yds. We are currently +45 in that category. Lynch is obviously a big part of that, as is Russell Wilson.

For an offense that has struggled at times and a defense that until recently hasn't looked like its former self, this team is actually doing much better in the key stats that coach Carroll cares most about.

A RePete is definitely doable.

zhawk · Nov 28, 2014

Awesome!

Blitzer88 · Nov 28, 2014

Interesting.

Ruminator · Nov 28, 2014

Fascinating. This season just got much more interesting in the last few weeks.

Hawks46 · Nov 28, 2014

I thought at first this was due mostly to the defense. We've given up the fewest big plays through the air, so I thought that was the foundation of our good TD.

In his last PC, Russell Wilson mentioned that we were one of the top in the league at big plays (I think he said we were in the top 3). Now, usually he's really good with stats (he was off on the sacks yesterday, but he might've thought the two where he got caught from behind were considered negative runs), so he must know something.

RolandDeschain · Nov 29, 2014

I like toxic differential. It's basically a different method of confirming that the best overall team usually wins the Super Bowl. Great offenses with a crap defense and vice-versa don't usually go all the way...Balance with no big weaknesses is the biggest key to Lombardi Land.

SalishHawkFan · Nov 29, 2014

Seattle ranks first in Rushing Big Plays (rushes for more than 10 yds) and by a large margin. They have 62. The next best team is Dallas with 48. They only rank 23rd in Passing Big Plays (25+yds) with 17.

By comparison, last year they finished the regular season with 72 rushing BP's and 38 passing. That put them 5th in passing BP's and second behind Philly in rushing BP's. They're on pace for 84 rushing and 23 passing.

They've only given up 23 rushing BP's so far this season. On pace for 31, compared to 48 last year. In the air they've given up 11 BP's this year, on pace for 15. Last year, they gave up 15.

So our secondary is just as good as last season and our Dline is doing a much better job of stopping the run. Our passing game tanked this season, dropping from 5th to 23rd. But our rushing attack is slightly better.

The thing is, everybody else is much worse. In the one stat that Super Bowl winners most often come from the top 10 of, the Seahawks are far and away at the top of the list. Of course, you can't read too much into this stat, because New England was a below average rated team last year and are middle of the pack this year, yet they still are a threat to get to the Super Bowl. But the stat says Denver and Seattle are the favorites to win the Super Bowl followed by Green Bay and Baltimore. I'd say that's probably true even if I hadn't read the Toxic Differentials.

lobohawk · Nov 29, 2014

In some way many of the big runs could be considered passes, since they originate out of the passing game. Russell seems to have taken more broken passing plays this year for big yardage than last year. Know they're runs, but they succeed in part due to the defense playing pass.

Erebus · Nov 29, 2014

SalishHawkFan":1apikp32 said:
The thing is, everybody else is much worse. In the one stat that Super Bowl winners most often come from the top 10 of, the Seahawks are far and away at the top of the list. Of course, you can't read too much into this stat, because New England was a below average rated team last year and are middle of the pack this year, yet they still are a threat to get to the Super Bowl. But the stat says Denver and Seattle are the favorites to win the Super Bowl followed by Green Bay and Baltimore. I'd say that's probably true even if I hadn't read the Toxic Differentials.

Toxic differential is a good stat, but I wouldn't be so fast to call it the "one stat". Passer rating differential is also a strong predictor of Super Bowl champions. Cold Hard Football Facts has us at 16th with 3.32, though that hasn't been updated with our latest game. Per my calculations, Thursday's game should put our PRD at 9.22, which would currently be 11th. 95% of all Super Bowl champions finished in the top 10 in this stat, so we still have work to do.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2014/13/PRD/

If you have a team that is near the top of the league in both Toxic Differential and Passer Rating Differential, that team is likely to win the Super Bowl. Right now that is Green Bay, followed by Denver.

Ruminator · Nov 29, 2014

What's crazy is the Hawks had a frustrating number of big plays called back due to penalties this season -- imagine how high the Tox Dif would have been had most of those big plays stood unmarred by penalties.

253hawk · Nov 29, 2014

And all of those fumbles that bounced out of bounds or were given back to the Rams or called incomplete passes...

EntiatHawk · Nov 29, 2014

I think "TD" is one of Brian Bellick's main indicators on team successes.

Here is the thing with us we have been a bit of mess for most of the season and we are now just coming back into form. This could be another magical run we are about to go on. Having a 9 or 10 game winning streak should fair well for us

MontanaHawk05 · Nov 29, 2014

Those "Wilson escapes a sack and throws to someone 60 yards downfield" plays have a way of making up statistically for a lot of play-design and play-calling failures. I can't wait until the day when those no longer have to be made up for.

RolandDeschain · Nov 29, 2014

MontanaHawk05":41r83a8g said:
Those "Wilson escapes a sack and throws to someone 60 yards downfield" plays have a way of making up statistically for a lot of play-design and play-calling failures. I can't wait until the day when those no longer have to be made up for.

SAME.

Lords of Scythia · Nov 29, 2014

SalishHawkFan":1wsswmht said:
For those that don't know, Toxic Differential is a stat that tracks a teams Giveaways/Takeaways and how many Big Plays they give up/have. Add those all up and you have Toxic Differential. Most of the teams that have won the Super Bowl have had a great Toxic Differential.

Last year, Seattle led the league in TD with 66. Second was Philly with 60. Denver had a TD of only 17.

As we all know, the Seahawks have nowhere near as many takeaways this year as we did last season. So it came as a bit of a shock to me when I looked up the league TD and found that Seattle leads the league with a TD of 55, on pace to have a TD of 72.....AND NOBODY ELSE IS EVEN CLOSE!!!

Denver, much improved over last year, is second with a Toxic Differential of only 28.

So how are we doing so much better? We only have a giveaway/takeaway differential of +9. We are doing it on Big Plays. Big Plays are any pass over 25 yds and any run over 10 yds. We are currently +45 in that category. Lynch is obviously a big part of that, as is Russell Wilson.

For an offense that has struggled at times and a defense that until recently hasn't looked like its former self, this team is actually doing much better in the key stats that coach Carroll cares most about.

A RePete is definitely doable.

Our defense gets picks and we take care of the ball on offense.

Tokadub · Nov 29, 2014

Haha only needing 10 rushing yards for a Toxic Differential +1 is like a freebie for Wilson, he's nearly averaging that with 7.5 yards per rush attempt :th2thumbs:

Shocked at our Toxic Differential

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