Help Please... (playoff scenarios)

I'll be perfectly honest here, I struggle keeping up with all the "ifs", when it comes to the playoff picture.
I know that at few of you have this stuff burned in your mind. Obviously winning out and being NFCW champs is what we want.

Can we still be #1 seed? If so what needs to happen for that to be possible?

If we fall to a wildcard spot what is the best/worst scenario?

Who do we want to win/ loose this week?

Save the links to the machine, I know a few of you love to rattle this stuff off, so let's have it.

:{)

We win out and Green Bay and Dallas lose at least one more game we have the #1 seed. We hold tie breakers against Dallas and Detroit.

EDIT

If we lose one or more game we most likely will not get it and will need help just to get into the playoffs.
The #2 seed is looking very possible and more likely as Green should not lose another game.

pmedic:

check this site out you can run every scenario you can think of and have you answers.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

pmedic920":316c1jxm said:

I'll be perfectly honest here, I struggle keeping up with all the "ifs", when it comes to the playoff picture.
I know that at few of you have this stuff burned in your mind. Obviously winning out and being NFCW champs is what we want.

Can we still be #1 seed? If so what needs to happen for that to be possible?

If we fall to a wildcard spot what is the best/worst scenario?

Who do we want to win/ loose this week?

Save the links to the machine, I know a few of you love to rattle this stuff off, so let's have it.

:{)

Click to expand...

1) Yes, Green Bay and Arizona need to lose 1 game
2) We want Green Bay, Arizona, and Philadelphia to lose

For instance as long as everybody goes 9-4 between Arizona, Detroit, Dallas, and Green Bay the playoffs would be.

1. Seattle
2. Detroit
3. Philadelphia
4. Atlanta
5. Arizona
6. Green Bay
-----------------------------
7. Dallas
8. San Francisco

If Arizona and Green Bay win then put Arizona 1, Green Bay 2, Philadelphia 3, New Orleans 4, Seattle 5, Detroit 6, Dallas 7, San Francisco 8.

Assuming we win the rest of our games, we need Green Bay to lose one more game and then we'd be possibly tied with Green Bay, Philly and Dallas. That kicks into all the tiebreakers. That's where it gets more complex. We do have a better conference record than all of them, so that will help. We also win head to head tie breakers with Philly and Green Bay. Dallas is the only one we lose head to head, so it would help if they lost one. Either Philly or Dallas is guaranteed to lose one more as they play each other, so that will knock one of them down a notch.


Here is a list of all the tie breaking procedures for those interested.

[urltargetblank]http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures[/urltargetblank]

BlueBlood":3jmxl8db said:

We win out and Green Bay and Dallas lose at least one more game we have the #1 seed. We hold tie breakers against Dallas and Detroit.

EDIT

If we lose one or more game we most likely will not get it and will need help just to get into the playoffs.
The #2 seed is looking very possible and more likely as Green should not lose another game.

Click to expand...

-We can lose one more game and are still guaranteed a playoff spot. If we lose 2, we need help.
-Dallas doesnt have to lose one as long as Greenbay only loses 1. If greenbay loses 2, and Dallas wins out, then we would lose the tie breaker to them.

Okay, so here's the realistic scenario for us and the #1 seed:

We would need to win out and have Green Bay lose another game. If that happens, we're almost certainly guaranteed the #1 seed, with ONE caveat.

What we don't want to happen is for Dallas to win out and have Green Bay lose TWO games. Basically, as long as the top record in the conference includes us and Dallas and either Green Bay or Detroit, we will get the #1 seed.

If it's just us and Dallas, we would get the #2 seed due to Dallas' head to head victory over us. Similarly, if it's us, Dallas, and Arizona all finishing at 12-4, divisional tiebreakers get settled first, meaning that Arizona gets knocked down to WC status and then it's just us and Dallas again for top seed, which they take.

jammerhawk":12pqy381 said:

pmedic:

check this site out you can run every scenario you can think of and have you answers.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Click to expand...

Jammer, I know about the machine, my post is more about generating football conversation than anything else, ergo my last sentence. Thank you though.
:{)

Dallas isn't going to win out they will finish at 10-6. Both Indianapolis and Philadelphia will beat them. The most likely teams to win out are Detroit or Green Bay. If Dallas loses tonight all the better because from there if we win out we hold all the tiebreakers.

Ok, so if we don't win NFCW.

What do you y'all see as the wildcard picture?

Detroit is in the mix, with a bunch of others close.
Can we make it going 2-2 in last 4?

MizzouHawkGal":1di33k7g said:

Dallas isn't going to win out they will finish at 10-6. Both Indianapolis and Philadelphia will beat them. The most likely teams to win out are Detroit or Green Bay.

Click to expand...

I'm of the same opinion regarding Dallas. They might finish at 11-5, but they aren't going to win out.

In the end, Seattle realistically controls its fate for the #1 seed with the only exception being the Packers. If Seattle ends up tied for the best record in the conference with anyone but Dallas, they get the #1 seed. So really, our main rooting interest each week is for:

#1 Seattle (most importantly, obvs)
#2 Whoever is playing Green Bay
#3 Whoever is playing Dallas

If we win this weekend we keep our sights set on the one seed. If we don't, we look for winning the division, which is likely, and the 3 seed. If we lose, and Arizona wins, we still have to be open to a wild card.

fortunately win or lose this weekend, we still have a great shot at the playoffs.

pmedic920":247tqtht said:

Ok, so if we don't win NFCW.

What do you y'all see as the wildcard picture?

Detroit is in the mix, with a bunch of others close.
Can we make it going 2-2 in last 4?

Click to expand...

3-1 is guaranteed wild-card with Division still in the conversation.

2-2 needs dallas and detroit and possibly even SF to falter a bit as well to keep us in.

1-3 needs more help then is really possible.

Who would YOU like to see get the other wildcard IF we are the first?

pmedic920":3tclcxfm said:

Ok, so if we don't win NFCW.

What do you y'all see as the wildcard picture?

Detroit is in the mix, with a bunch of others close.
Can we make it going 2-2 in last 4?

Click to expand...

I would say we can lose only 1 game because of the possibility of Dallas going 10-6 (11-5 should be enough to win the NFCW because Arizona is in a death spiral). Basically barring upsets Green Bay should go 3-1 minimum which puts them in one WC spot because that would mean Detroit won out and got the division spot. Philadelphia should win against Dallas, NYG, and Washington so that gives them the division spot, Arizona is looking at best to go 2-2 maybe 1-3 or worse but if they go 2-2 they get the last wildcard over Dallas. 10-6 for us is outside looking in basically.

pmedic920":1sswr929 said:

Who would YOU like to see get the other wildcard IF we are the first?

Click to expand...

Detroit.

pmedic920":2d55c6tr said:

Ok, so if we don't win NFCW.

What do you y'all see as the wildcard picture?

Detroit is in the mix, with a bunch of others close.
Can we make it going 2-2 in last 4?

Click to expand...

Going 2-2 would be a dangerous game to play. Dallas has games left against the Bears and Skins, and if they take those two, we lose any straight up tiebreaker with them. We would need Detroit to finish 10-6 as well to ensure that the head-to-head tiebreaker doesn't come into play.

Detroit plays the Bucs, Vikes, Bears, and Packers in their last 4, and they SHOULD go 3-1 in that stretch. If the Lions slip up and lose 2 games, then that helps us.

Either way, if we don't win the division, that means we're probably going to be heading to Arizona or to New Orleans in the wildcard round (assuming we do enough to get in). Neither option really seems that attractive. Atlanta is an outside shot, and would be a much more preferable option.

If we go 2-2, there's a very real chance we miss the playoffs altogether.

If we go 3-1, there's a very real chance we win the division and get the #3 seed (since I don't expect the Cards to finish better than 2-2 over their last 4).

If we go 4-0, we're almost guaranteed a bye week.

If we are a wildcard and GB is a wildcard, would we play GB at Clink?

pmedic920":16fxtzv4 said:

If we are a wildcard and GB is a wildcard, would we play GB at Clink?

Click to expand...

If we were both wildcards, we wouldn't play each other at all until the conference final. So we'd have to both beat two teams on the road before that game could happen.

We'd get the higher seed as long as we had an even or better record than they did.

volsunghawk":ljmhzee1 said:

pmedic920":ljmhzee1 said:

If we are a wildcard and GB is a wildcard, would we play GB at Clink?

Click to expand...

If we were both wildcards, we wouldn't play each other at all until the conference final. So we'd have to both beat two teams on the road before that game could happen.

We'd get the higher seed as long as we had an even or better record than they did.

Click to expand...

Crap, I knew that.
Doh.