NFCW Playoff Scenarios for Week 15

Everyone,

It's that time of year again. The season is closing down and playoffs are in the air! This year's picture is especially complex so with everyone's consent, I'm going to restrict myself to the four teams of the NFCW going into week 15 going in reverse current order (starting with Rams and ending with Cards):

Rams 6-7 [4-5 Conf, 2-2 Div]

Divisional Race: Eliminated The Rams were eliminated from division contention when Arizona won their tenth game. [Seattle's win over Philly also eliminated the Rams because Seattle and Arizona play each other in week 16]

Wild Card Race Life-Support In order for the Rams to qualify for a wildcard spot, they have to win out and they must not face more than two other non-division leading team with 10 wins or more.

Clinching Scenarios: None
Elimination Scenarios: Any Rams loss, OR A Detroit Win AND A Seattle Win eliminate the Rams.

Why? RIght now the best record the Rams can have is 9-7. The Cardinals and Packers already have 10 wins, and Dallas and Philly play each other which means one of them will also have 10 wins. Since the NFCS will be won with 8 wins (or less), that leaves only five playoff spots, and three teams already have records that the Rams can't attain. If Seattle and Detriot both win, there will be five teams at the end of week 15 with 10 wins or more eliminating the Rams from any Wildcard spot.

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Niners 7-6 [Conf 6-4, Div: 1-3]

Divisional Race Eliminated Why? The best the Niners can finish is 10-6 but for that to be the best in the division, Seattle would have to beat the Cardinals (the Cards would have to lose out) which would create a three way 10-6 tie, and Seattle wins this three way tie.

Wild Card: Outside Looking in (and fading) Why? The Niners can at least make the 10 win threshhold hypothetically, and two of the Niners losses are AFC losses which would give them some advantageous tiebreaks if this were to happen. Unfortunately the Niners have to face Seattle, San Diego, and Arizona, and if they lose ANY of them, they are probably done.

Clinching Scenarios: None
Elimination Scenarios: San Fran Loss (Seattle Win) AND Detroit Win This is much like the Rams elimination scenarios. A San Fran loss would be a double whammy not only elevating rival Seattle to 10 wins, but reducing the maximum possible record to 9-7. This along with a Detroit win would mean there would be too many 10 win teams for San Fran to make it.

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Seattle: 9-4 [Conf 7-2, Div: 2-1]

Divisional Race: 2nd place but controls own destiny thanks to week 16 rematch with Arizona. This is one of the simplier playoff pictures to read. If Seattle wins out, they win the division and have no worse than a first week bye.
Actually Seattle can win the division by winning out and be stuck with the #3 seed if Dallas wins the NFCE and the Packers win the NFCN with 13 wins. If Seattle is in a three way tie at 12-4, they'll get the #1 seed.

Wild Card: Current #5 Seed, prospects bright failing a division win. Why? Because Seattle's two of their losses were to AFC clubs, they have the multiple team tiebreaks over vitually all other NFC teams by conference record. That means that if Seattle is tied with two or more clubs (like is currently the case), Seattle wins that tie break. If Seattle wins at least one more, a WC spot is likely (if not assured), if they win two more, with the tiebreak advantage above, Seattle is virtually assured a playoff spot of some kind. Of the current NFC contenders, only Dallas as an overt tiebreak over Seattle.

Clinching Scenarios: None (not yet....but week 16 likely seals the division)
Elimination Scenarios: None

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Cardinals: 10-3 [Conf 7-2, Div: 2-1]

Divisional Race: First place but Seattle's footsteps are getting loud...and the Cards have already lost to Seattle once. Like Seattle, if the Cards do manage to win out they will have no worse than a week one bye and division title. Unfortunately they have to face a hot Rams team, Seattle (who has already beaten them), and San Fran @ San Fran all on a M*A*S*H unit of a team. There is a reason why the national pundits think Seattle will overtake in week 16.

Wild Card WIth ten wins already in their pocket, and a suddenly collapsing Niner team, the playoff odds for at least a Wildcard look very promising for Arizona especially with it's strong conference record (and thus tie breaks [see Seattle]).

Clinching Scenarios: None (yet....but week 16 likely decides the division)
Elimination Scenarios: None


*whew*

I hope everyone finds this useful, interesting, or both.

Good read. Should answer most peoples questions on the site.

I do not agree the Seahawks have 'no worse than a first week bye' if they win out. What if the Packers and Cowboys also win out?

Packers 13-3 (#1 seed)
Cowboys 12-4 (#2 seed, beat Seattle Head to Head)
Seahawks 12-4 (#3 seed)

That's why I'm rooting for Philly on Sunday night to beat Dallas. we need GB or Dallas to lose a game to assure a first round bye with a 12-4 record.

JonRud":3a6kk8yg said:

I do not agree the Seahawks have 'no worse than a first week bye' if they win out. What if the Packers and Cowboys also win out?

Packers 13-3 (#1 seed)
Cowboys 12-4 (#2 seed, beat Seattle Head to Head)
Seahawks 12-4 (#3 seed)

That's why I'm rooting for Philly on Sunday night to beat Dallas. we need GB or Dallas to lose a game to assure a first round bye with a 12-4 record.

Click to expand...

You're right about this particular scenario. To avoid it either:

Have Philly beat Dallas. That not only give Dallas a loss, but it also nearly elminates Dallas from the NFCE. The other way to avoid would be to have Detroit beat GB in week 16 I think.

I'll modify my original post.

JonRud":28w2h5c6 said:

I do not agree the Seahawks have 'no worse than a first week bye' if they win out. What if the Packers and Cowboys also win out?

Packers 13-3 (#1 seed)
Cowboys 12-4 (#2 seed, beat Seattle Head to Head)
Seahawks 12-4 (#3 seed)

That's why I'm rooting for Philly on Sunday night to beat Dallas. we need GB or Dallas to lose a game to assure a first round bye with a 12-4 record.

Click to expand...

Head to Head is not factored in when 3 or more teams are in a tie it goes to conference records then common games.

MizzouHawkGal":dhwbkrz7 said:

JonRud":dhwbkrz7 said:

I do not agree the Seahawks have 'no worse than a first week bye' if they win out. What if the Packers and Cowboys also win out?

Packers 13-3 (#1 seed)
Cowboys 12-4 (#2 seed, beat Seattle Head to Head)
Seahawks 12-4 (#3 seed)

That's why I'm rooting for Philly on Sunday night to beat Dallas. we need GB or Dallas to lose a game to assure a first round bye with a 12-4 record.

Click to expand...

Head to Head is not factored in when 3 or more teams are in a tie it goes to conference records then common games.

Click to expand...

Agreed but the scenario I outlined does not show a tie of 3 more teams. it shows a 2-way tie between Dallas and Seattle with head to head being the #1 tiebreaker.

MizzouHawkGal":33jj2oou said:

JonRud":33jj2oou said:

I do not agree the Seahawks have 'no worse than a first week bye' if they win out. What if the Packers and Cowboys also win out?

Packers 13-3 (#1 seed)
Cowboys 12-4 (#2 seed, beat Seattle Head to Head)
Seahawks 12-4 (#3 seed)

That's why I'm rooting for Philly on Sunday night to beat Dallas. we need GB or Dallas to lose a game to assure a first round bye with a 12-4 record.

Click to expand...

Head to Head is not factored in when 3 or more teams are in a tie it goes to conference records then common games.

Click to expand...

In the above scenario, only Seattle and Dallas would be tied.

Honestly right now, the playoffs are so crowded and with teams all playing division games, there are really WAY too many possibilities for me to worry about anything other than winning our games and rooting against the other playoff teams.

MizzouHawkGal":e3ydh3mc said:

JonRud":e3ydh3mc said:

I do not agree the Seahawks have 'no worse than a first week bye' if they win out. What if the Packers and Cowboys also win out?

Packers 13-3 (#1 seed)
Cowboys 12-4 (#2 seed, beat Seattle Head to Head)
Seahawks 12-4 (#3 seed)

That's why I'm rooting for Philly on Sunday night to beat Dallas. we need GB or Dallas to lose a game to assure a first round bye with a 12-4 record.

Click to expand...

Head to Head is not factored in when 3 or more teams are in a tie it goes to conference records then common games.

Click to expand...

Yes but as was pointed out, GB can win it's division at 13-3 which is one better than Seattle can manage. If the Cowboys won out as well, that would be a two-way contest. Best way to avoid: Root for Philly (which likely locks the 'boys out of the NFCE Division crown).

kidhawk":1023ykgp said:

MizzouHawkGal":1023ykgp said:

JonRud":1023ykgp said:

I do not agree the Seahawks have 'no worse than a first week bye' if they win out. What if the Packers and Cowboys also win out?

Packers 13-3 (#1 seed)
Cowboys 12-4 (#2 seed, beat Seattle Head to Head)
Seahawks 12-4 (#3 seed)

That's why I'm rooting for Philly on Sunday night to beat Dallas. we need GB or Dallas to lose a game to assure a first round bye with a 12-4 record.

Click to expand...

Head to Head is not factored in when 3 or more teams are in a tie it goes to conference records then common games.

Click to expand...

In the above scenario, only Seattle and Dallas would be tied.

Honestly right now, the playoffs are so crowded and with teams all playing division games, there are really WAY too many possibilities for me to worry about anything other than winning our games and rooting against the other playoff teams.

Click to expand...

You're forgetting about the very real possibility that Arizona could be 12-4 in that scenerio which gives Seattle all the tiebreakers and the 2 seed. Not that I think Dallas going 12-4 is even a possibility given they will be dealing with Philadelphia and Indianapolis soon enough. And I sure wouldn't just assume Green Bay is going 13-3 just like that given the fact that if Atlanta can hang with them in Lambeau I'm pretty certain Detroit can do a heck of a lot more, or that Buffalo isn't just going to lie down for Rodgers at home.

MizzouHawkGal":2l0p2e9t said:

kidhawk":2l0p2e9t said:

MizzouHawkGal":2l0p2e9t said:

JonRud":2l0p2e9t said:

I do not agree the Seahawks have 'no worse than a first week bye' if they win out. What if the Packers and Cowboys also win out?

Packers 13-3 (#1 seed)
Cowboys 12-4 (#2 seed, beat Seattle Head to Head)
Seahawks 12-4 (#3 seed)

That's why I'm rooting for Philly on Sunday night to beat Dallas. we need GB or Dallas to lose a game to assure a first round bye with a 12-4 record.

Click to expand...

Head to Head is not factored in when 3 or more teams are in a tie it goes to conference records then common games.

Click to expand...

In the above scenario, only Seattle and Dallas would be tied.

Honestly right now, the playoffs are so crowded and with teams all playing division games, there are really WAY too many possibilities for me to worry about anything other than winning our games and rooting against the other playoff teams.

Click to expand...

You're forgetting about the very real possibility that Arizona could be 12-4 in that scenerio which gives Seattle all the tiebreakers and the 2 seed. Not that I think Dallas going 12-4 is even a possibility given they will be dealing with Philadelphia and Indianapolis soon enough.

Click to expand...

Unless I am very much mistaken, I believe that Division Winners are determined first, and while you're right that 'Zona could be tied with the Cowboys and Seattle at 12-4 in this case it wouldn't matter. Seattle would be awarded the NFCW based on head to head vs 'Zona, and then it would be a two way comparison against division winners.

If this were for a wild-card spot, you'd be completely correct.

Wrong if they all three go 12-4 Dallas has the worst conference record NFCW wins number 2 seed end of story. Both Arizona and Seattle would be 10-2 then Arizona loses out to us while Dallas loses to both because the best they can do is 8-4 in conference. They aren't going to win out anyway so I'm not worried about it.

Edit: Well damn, it could happen but like I say not going to happen given Philadelphia has to be mad now and know that game is for all the marbles.

MizzouHawkGal":3u6je178 said:

kidhawk":3u6je178 said:

MizzouHawkGal":3u6je178 said:

JonRud":3u6je178 said:

I do not agree the Seahawks have 'no worse than a first week bye' if they win out. What if the Packers and Cowboys also win out?

Packers 13-3 (#1 seed)
Cowboys 12-4 (#2 seed, beat Seattle Head to Head)
Seahawks 12-4 (#3 seed)

That's why I'm rooting for Philly on Sunday night to beat Dallas. we need GB or Dallas to lose a game to assure a first round bye with a 12-4 record.

Click to expand...

Head to Head is not factored in when 3 or more teams are in a tie it goes to conference records then common games.

Click to expand...

In the above scenario, only Seattle and Dallas would be tied.

Honestly right now, the playoffs are so crowded and with teams all playing division games, there are really WAY too many possibilities for me to worry about anything other than winning our games and rooting against the other playoff teams.

Click to expand...

You're forgetting about the very real possibility that Arizona could be 12-4 in that scenerio which gives Seattle all the tiebreakers and the 2 seed. Not that I think Dallas going 12-4 is even a possibility given they will be dealing with Philadelphia and Indianapolis soon enough. And I sure wouldn't just assume Green Bay is going 13-3 just like that given the fact that if Atlanta can hang with them in Lambeau I'm pretty certain Detroit can do a heck of a lot more, or that Buffalo isn't just going to lie down for Rodgers at home.

Click to expand...

My first point was only dealing in the scenario as presented, but you are making my second point for me. There are tons of scenarios that could play out a lot of different ways and we all know how division games can go crazy any given week. With all the craziness at the top of the playoff heap right now, I just think there really are too many scenarios to try to contemplate them all right now. Thus I'm rooting for us to win out and let the chips fall where they may. There will be a more complete picture of possibilities as we get closer to week 17.

peachesenregalia":2oyg9tgz said:

MizzouHawkGal":2oyg9tgz said:

You're forgetting about the very real possibility that Arizona could be 12-4 in that scenerio which gives Seattle all the tiebreakers and the 2 seed. Not that I think Dallas going 12-4 is even a possibility given they will be dealing with Philadelphia and Indianapolis soon enough.

Click to expand...

In that case we're still the #3. The divisional tie-breaker would be worked out first, then it would be just us and Dallass. Wrong again, Mizzou.

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Peach earns the cookie for today. I explained this last night to you Mizzou. 3-way only apply to all division winner or all wildcard teams. A divisional split of 2 12-4 teams removes them from a 3-way-tie breaking scenario with each other.

MizzouHawkGal":1ytjhvqx said:

Wrong if they all three go 12-4 Dallas has the worst conference record NFCW wins number 2 seed end of story. Both Arizona and Seattle would be 10-2 then Arizona loses out to us while Dallas loses to both because the best they can do is 8-4 in conference.

Click to expand...

If this were a wildcard spot or three teams in the same division, you'd be absolutely correct. However, (again as I understand it), when determining seeding, the order goes like this:

1. Each Divisional winner is determined independently within each division.
2. The records of each Division winner is compared and assigned spots 1-4
3. The records for all remaining teams (in the conference are compared) and assigned spots 5 and 6 respectively.

So in this particular case, Seattle and Dallas would be awarded divisional crowns in step one. This elminates Arizona from the Divisional Tiebreak. Since Dallas beat Seattle, Dallas would be the spot above Seattle (the #2 seed in this case). Arizona would then be considered for wildcard spots (and likely get one)

MizzouHawkGal":1txwgm90 said:

Wrong if they all three go 12-4 Dallas has the worst conference record NFCW wins number 2 seed end of story. Both Arizona and Seattle would be 10-2 then Arizona loses out to us while Dallas loses to both because the best they can do is 8-4 in conference. They aren't going to win out anyway so I'm not worried about it.

Edit: Well damn, it could happen but like I say not going to happen given Philadelphia has to be mad now and know that game is for all the marbles.

Click to expand...

Sorry but this is completely wrong. If Arizona, Seattle and Dallas all finish at 12-4 (assuming GB wins 13), the NFC West determines a Division champion first. Assume that's Seattle based on tiebreaker. Seattle then goes H2H with Dallas and loses based on the loss to Dallas. Seattle would be the #3 seed.

I am sorry but your scenario is not correct. Conference record has nothing to do with it, this is a 2-way tie (Seattle & Dallas or Arizona & Dallas) not a 3-way tie.

Polaris":1ii7pb9d said:

MizzouHawkGal":1ii7pb9d said:

Wrong if they all three go 12-4 Dallas has the worst conference record NFCW wins number 2 seed end of story. Both Arizona and Seattle would be 10-2 then Arizona loses out to us while Dallas loses to both because the best they can do is 8-4 in conference.

Click to expand...

If this were a wildcard spot or three teams in the same division, you'd be absolutely correct. However, (again as I understand it), when determining seeding, the order goes like this:

1. Each Divisional winner is determined independently within each division.
2. The records of each Division winner is compared and assigned spots 1-4
3. The records for all remaining teams (in the conference are compared) and assigned spots 5 and 6 respectively.

So in this particular case, Seattle and Dallas would be awarded divisional crowns in step one. This elminates Arizona from the Divisional Tiebreak. Since Dallas beat Seattle, Dallas would be the spot above Seattle (the #2 seed in this case). Arizona would then be considered for wildcard spots (and likely get one)

Click to expand...

I think Polaris is right. The only way we edge out Dallas in a tiebreaker is if there are 3 division champions tied. In this case it would be dallas, seattle and Green bay. Then we get the number 1 seed. If Green Bays stays ahead of us and dallas and us are tied as division champs dallas gets the tiebreaker. If GB ends up tied with us and dallas then we get the 3 way tiebreaker by way of conference record.

Bottom line is we need Philly to beat dallas again and a green bay loss would be helpful.

MizzouHawkGal":3uuw3zop said:

......... or that Buffalo isn't just going to lie down for Rodgers at home.

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After watching Monday Night Football, Aaron Rodgers appears able to score "at will". The Packers will have to really have a "bad day" in order for them to lose any of their last three games.

Bigpumpkin":34rxpyc7 said:

MizzouHawkGal":34rxpyc7 said:

......... or that Buffalo isn't just going to lie down for Rodgers at home.

Click to expand...

After watching Monday Night Football, Aaron Rodgers appears able to score "at will". The Packers will have to really have a "bad day" in order for them to lose any of their last three games.

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Most teams can score at will against the Falcon defense. With that said, I agree the Packers are looking strong right now.

Bigpumpkin":s12m2k72 said:

MizzouHawkGal":s12m2k72 said:

......... or that Buffalo isn't just going to lie down for Rodgers at home.

Click to expand...

After watching Monday Night Football, Aaron Rodgers appears able to score "at will". The Packers will have to really have a "bad day" in order for them to lose any of their last three games.

Click to expand...

Correct, but the GB D allowed Atl to put up 37 in their house. As soon as the Pac faces a good D, we'll see how beatable they are. The problem is the only team they face in the next 3 weeks that even has a chance is Detroit.

There is a double-edge sword in regards to the Philly-Dallas game. Granted, we want the Hawks to win the division...but what if they don't? Then that is where DALLAS winning the NFCE helps the Hawks as we then own the tie-breaker over Philly in regards to WC but otherwise lose to Dallas if that were the case...and likely OUT of the Playoffs all together (edit: I guess I am giving the Lions too much credit as this also means they win out.) As for OVERALL percentages of just getting INTO the playoff, then a Dallas win is more helpful (a tie in that game is worst case as it improves BOTH teams "tie-breaker" over the Hawks with one less loss...ie 11-4-1 > 11-5.)

With all that said...this team can control what they can control and that is JUST WIN GAMES!!