How stats can lie and why Wilson/Lynch are the key

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2295 ... cs-told-me

Pretty decent article regarding how misleading stats can be and why Wilson and Lynch make this offense go. I know it's fairly obvious, but nice to see a little statistical analysis (and conjecture) about what would happen if those two were replaced with average players.

They have this to say about the Patriots

Focusing on the Patriots' season-long rushing figures ignores both the impact of LeGarrette Blount and the improvements the offensive line has made across the course of the season.

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They make no such allowances for the marked improvement in Seattle's O-Line over the course of the season.

Yes the offense is driven by Lynch/Wilson, and yes the O-Line has been a liability especially in the mid portion of the season, but man are they a different line now and they should be given credit for it.

- bsd

bigskydoc":1j596rrd said:

They make no such allowances for the marked improvement in Seattle's O-Line over the course of the season.

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That's cause there isn't one.

Did you watch the game last week? BOTH run blocking and pass blocking were terrible. It took until the 4th quarter when the Eagle's quit for Lynch to get any room to run.

Not all the line's fault, cause Russell holds onto the ball too long sometimes. But marked improvement? I don't see it.

Watched it live and 3 times on the "coaches" view on rewind. The line had their best game of the season in pass protection, and held their own in running, although it was far from their best running game.

The Eagles were coming off a week when they held the vaunted Dallas O-line and Demarco Murray to a season low 73 yards. They are better against the run than they are given credit for. They have a potent and disruptive pass rush which was a big test for our O-line.

Yes I think they are markedly improved from earlier in the season. We will get a better sense of where they are in the next three weeks when they face off against the NFCW

- bsd

edited to add, the Dallas O-line is the ONE area where I really do think reality meets the hype. They are a good line and are vaunted for a reason. Their run blocking is amazing.

Tanier is a good writer, but the truth is in the middle. He assumes that every Russell scramble was a failure by the line. Which precludes Russell holding the ball longer than any other qb in the league.

Statistics don't say just how St00pid James Carpenter is.

We got away with one and 3rd and long when Carpenter runs straight through the line without touching anyone, heads to his right and runs 20 yards downfield then stops, looks at the Eagle defensive player, looks back at his oline, and just stands there. Who does that?

Later, on a toss to Robert Turbin, it looks like it's supposed to be Lemuel and James doubling Fletcher Cox (who've I've heard compared to Reggie White on more than one occasion), Instead, Lemuel takes Fletcher's left shoulder, James runs right by Fletcher's right shoulder, without touching him, stops about a yard from a linebacker and looks around. Fletcher Cox then bounces of Lemuel to his right and tackles Turbin from behind for a loss.

And that's just 2 instances. It seems if this dufus isn't blocking straight ahead, then he gets lost. He could (and maybe he has) cost us a game with his idiocy. He's certainly been responsible for some of the hits and sacks Russell has taken by whiffing on block, after block, after block.

If you take the example of the Saints and how they approach the offensive line with a "short" QB, the most important part of the line is the 3 guys in the middle. Well we've got one that repeatedly costs us in games and might one day cost us our franchise QB.

Remember what happened to Joe Theisman? I'd hate to see Robert Quinn do something like that to Russell Wilson.

The way Seattle run blocks is difficult to assess by results on a week to week basis. Man blocking scheme is the blocking equivalent of reading from a script. Zone blocking scheme is the equivalent of improv. There is a chaotic element to ZBS where you never really know where the crease will be or where the cutback materializes, if any show up at all. It's very random.

Cable's version of ZBS is even more unpredictable because our lineman are so much "nastier". Some of our lineman play in "Beast Mode" themselves, namely Sweezy, Britt, and the departed Giacomini. Sometimes that means domination, other times it means that 4/5 of our OL are lying on the ground and Lynch still runs for 20.

Probably the best way to counter our rush attack is simply to have more defenders in the box. Our run game is predicated on forcing random mistakes in the front seven and then having our RB seize that opportunity. More defenders means more insurance against mistakes. The Eagles not only stacked the box pretty much all game, but they did a ton of aggressive run blitzing too.

They paid the price for it in the secondary. And when it was all said in done, they STILL gave up over 180 yards rushing because they had such a hard time getting Seattle off the field.

Regarding the article, I won't bash it because at least it uses data and tries to come up with original conclusions. That said, I think there are limitations to evaluating with data in the NFL. Sometimes you just need to watch football to know things.

bigskydoc":103tv5jv said:

Watched it live and 3 times on the "coaches" view on rewind. The line had their best game of the season in pass protection, and held their own in running, although it was far from their best running game.

The Eagles were coming off a week when they held the vaunted Dallas O-line and Demarco Murray to a season low 73 yards. They are better against the run than they are given credit for. They have a potent and disruptive pass rush which was a big test for our O-line.

Yes I think they are markedly improved from earlier in the season. We will get a better sense of where they are in the next three weeks when they face off against the NFCW.

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Regardless of how many times you watch the games, the O-line still hovers around the bottom of league in stats

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats? ... E&tabSeq=2

The Hawks usually fall in the top 10 in run blocking each week, but still are in the 20's in pass blocking. So again, marked improvements? Just don't see it. When Unger came back the first time you could tell a better cohesion, but now he's out again. So lots of struggles.

Mike Tanier is my favorite writer. It's a shame he's now working for Bleacher Report.

kearly":matlusen said:

The Eagles not only stacked the box pretty much all game, but they did a ton of aggressive run blitzing too.

They paid the price for it in the secondary. And when it was all said in done, they STILL gave up over 180 yards rushing because they had such a hard time getting Seattle off the field.

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Once again, another great post from Kearly.

Philly knew what they had to do to stop us and executed their plan well but it still wasn't enough.

Russ, Marshawn, and our receiver core are executing on the same level they have all year (save a rough patch that Russ went through mid-season that is partly due to the O-Line). The improved look to our offense over the last few weeks is largely due to our line stabilizing and improving.

LJP looks better than expected, although Max Unger's absence is still noticeable.

Carp continues to look generally good with a real nasty streak. He made a couple bone headed plays again, which luckily weren't noticed by the stripes.

Okung had his best game of the year despite his predictable false start. Looks like he is still mentally bothered by his injury and looking for any edge that he can get even though he physically looks as good as preinjury.

Sweezy pretty much disappeared in this game (in a good way). He just did his job which he has consistently done all year. He continues to help out Britt and maybe makes Britt look better than he actually is.

Britt took too much heat for his performance last weekend. I count two to three blown plays by him which is about the best you could ask of a rookie against such a stout defense that was undoubtedly focusing on him. He made some nice plays to cover blocks that should have been made by running backs. He was trying to do too much though. Several times he peeled off a block on the line to try to pick up an outside rusher. This left the inside guy up to Sweezy who wasn't in position to make the block and resulted in pressure to Russ. This may be on Cable. Britt did it enough to make me think it was an assignment. I would generally think it is better off letting Russ deal with the outside guy, but Russ does seem to evade inside pressure better than edge pressure so..,

I maintain what I have consistently stated since mid-season. The line is steadily improving as a unit and before the end of the year will be as good or better than the line that took is all the way last year.

-bsd

bigskynurse is bringing it....for real.