Playoff Scenario Discussion

If we win out against Arizona and St . Louis at 12-4 we should be able to have the #1 seed correct??? Even if the Cowboys win out and they also finish out at 12-4 right? This just makes me think like "I know they have that tie - breaker over us due to the early season home loss" BUT, isn't the #1 seeding then dictated by NFC Conference losses? In which we have 2 in Rams and Cowboys and the Cowboys to Cardinals, Redskins, Eagles & 49ers.

Also last Scenario included to this hypothetical outcome. Let's say Detroit wins out as well! Then they are 12-4 as well, they're only losses in Conference tie us at 2 with losses to Panthers and Cardinals.but we have a leg up on them due to our Strength of Schedule correct?

So we root for the Colts at cowboys and bears at lions I think .Lol I want HFA!!! Just give me your wise input here guys as I seem to be lost in a way.thanks, as always go Hawks!!!

If both the Hawks and Cowboys win out the cowboys when the head to head tie breaker against us and we would have the number 2 seed. Any other match up including the Seahawks would have the hawks winning the number 1 side via tiebreakers.

Basically as long as the Cowboys keep winning you want either the Lions or the Packers (not both since they play each other in week 17) to keep winning too so that we would have a 3 day tie at the end of the season which we win in every scenario at the moment.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES

Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild Card tie-breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to Step 1 of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tiebreaker, all other clubs revert to Step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
In comparing records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor, since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
To determine home-field priority among division-titlists, apply Wild Card tie-breakers.
To determine home-field priority for Wild Card qualifiers, apply division tie-breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild Card tiebreakers (if teams are from different divisions).
To determine the best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed, add a team's position in the two categories, and the lowest score wins. For example, if Team A is first in points scored and second in points allowed, its combined ranking is "3." If Team B is third in points scored and first in points allowed, its combined ranking is "4." Team A then wins the tiebreaker. If two teams are tied for a position, both teams are awarded the ranking as if they held it solely. For example, if Team A and Team B are tied for first in points scored, each team is assigned a ranking of "1" in that category, and if Team C is third, its ranking will still be "3."


http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

By winning their next two games, the Seahawks can do no worse than the two seed in the NFC. That would at least give them a bye week and leave them one win away from an NFC Championship game. In the only scenario where Seattle could win out and not get a number one seed, the Dallas Cowboys would be getting top billing in the NFC instead.

The way Dallas are at home this year, I wouldn't be too concerned about being the no 2 seed if they are at No 1

We have to root for ~gulp~ Andrew Luck next week vs. Dallas

KitsapGuy":vadtznc1 said:

By winning their next two games, the Seahawks can do no worse than the two seed in the NFC. That would at least give them a bye week and leave them one win away from an NFC Championship game. In the only scenario where Seattle could win out and not get a number one seed, the Dallas Cowboys would be getting top billing in the NFC instead.

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And that would be only if just Seattle and Dallas finish 12-4 I believe. If either Detroit or GB also finish 12-4, I believe the Hawks win the 3 way tiebreaker no matter which of those teams is involved. If this is true, we want Detroit and GB to win this week since they play each other in week 17 meaning one of them would finish 12-4 in that scenario.
Can anyone else confirm?

hawksfansinceday1":2m9lucbx said:

KitsapGuy":2m9lucbx said:

By winning their next two games, the Seahawks can do no worse than the two seed in the NFC. That would at least give them a bye week and leave them one win away from an NFC Championship game. In the only scenario where Seattle could win out and not get a number one seed, the Dallas Cowboys would be getting top billing in the NFC instead.

Click to expand...

And that would be only if just Seattle and Dallas finish 12-4 I believe. If either Detroit or GB also finish 12-4, I believe the Hawks win the 3 way tiebreaker no matter which of those teams is involved. If this is true, we want Detroit and GB to win this week since they play each other in week 17 meaning one of them would finish 12-4 in that scenario.
Can anyone else confirm?

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This is correct. In the case we finish 12-4 in a 3 way tie, the tie breaker goes to conference record and we would have the best record against NFC teams and would win the tie breaker, regardless of who we tie with.

Only way we win out and don't get the #1 seed is if we finish in a 2 way tie with Dallas.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... ed-in-nfc/

that breaks it down well.

zifnab32":o0tmdkdc said:

hawksfansinceday1":o0tmdkdc said:

KitsapGuy":o0tmdkdc said:

By winning their next two games, the Seahawks can do no worse than the two seed in the NFC. That would at least give them a bye week and leave them one win away from an NFC Championship game. In the only scenario where Seattle could win out and not get a number one seed, the Dallas Cowboys would be getting top billing in the NFC instead.

Click to expand...

And that would be only if just Seattle and Dallas finish 12-4 I believe. If either Detroit or GB also finish 12-4, I believe the Hawks win the 3 way tiebreaker no matter which of those teams is involved. If this is true, we want Detroit and GB to win this week since they play each other in week 17 meaning one of them would finish 12-4 in that scenario.
Can anyone else confirm?

Click to expand...

This is correct. In the case we finish 12-4 in a 3 way tie, the tie breaker goes to conference record and we would have the best record against NFC teams and would win the tie breaker, regardless of who we tie with.

Only way we win out and don't get the #1 seed is if we finish in a 2 way tie with Dallas.

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Thanks. I thought so. Just win Hawks and give yourselves the chance.

All the team can do is win games. The rest is out of their hands. We know what (and who) to root for, though.

danp1990":10510gy7 said:

If we win out against Arizona and St . Louis at 12-4 we should be able to have the #1 seed correct??? Even if the Cowboys win out and they also finish out at 12-4 right? This just makes me think like "I know they have that tie - breaker over us due to the early season home loss" BUT, isn't the #1 seeding then dictated by NFC Conference losses? In which we have 2 in Rams and Cowboys and the Cowboys to Cardinals, Redskins, Eagles & 49ers.

Also last Scenario included to this hypothetical outcome. Let's say Detroit wins out as well! Then they are 12-4 as well, they're only losses in Conference tie us at 2 with losses to Panthers and Cardinals.but we have a leg up on them due to our Strength of Schedule correct?

So we root for the Colts at cowboys and bears at lions I think .Lol I want HFA!!! Just give me your wise input here guys as I seem to be lost in a way.thanks, as always go Hawks!!!

Click to expand...

If there is a 3 way tie-us dallas and gb or det. Then we win that tiebreaker and get no 1 seed. This is because to win a 3 way tiebreaker on the head to head match up one team would have to have beaten the other two. Since none of the 3 teams in this scenario have beaten the other two there is no clear head to head tiebreaker so then it goes to conf record which would give the tiebreaker to us and we would get the no 1 seed.

However if there isn't a 3 way tie and us and dallas are both 12-4 and gb or det is 11-5 (division champ) then it is a two team tiebreaker with dallas. In this case Dallas would get the tiebreaker over us because they won the head to head match up. then we would get the no 2 seed and dallas would get the no 1 seed.

So we need dallas to lose 1 game or either gb or det to win out. If either of those things happen we get #1 seed. If both GB and det lose 1 game and dallas wins out we get the number 2 seed.

Just to cover everything, where do we stand if the unthinkable happens and we lose next weekend?

Are we just one win away from clinching a playoff spot at least? With the Cowboys winning last night, is Philly the only team left that could bump us from a wildcard spot, and then only if we lose out and they win out?

Hawkpower":gfyc8mw5 said:

Just to cover everything, where do we stand if the unthinkable happens and we lose next weekend?

Are we just one win away from clinching a playoff spot at least? With the Cowboys winning last night, is Philly the only team left that could bump us from a wildcard spot, and then only if we lose out and they win out?

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A loss to the Fighting Lindleys would kill our division hopes and leave us scrapping for a wildcard, but yeah I'm pretty sure we'd still be in fine shape to get in if we took care of St. Louis.

Playing with the ESPN playoff machine, plugging in a loss to the Lindleys and a win over the Rams, I can't manage to find a combination that knocks us out of the playoffs completely. Maybe there is one, maybe there isn't, but if there is then it's probably a pretty obscure and unlikely combo.

What happened yesterday was the best case scenario for the Hawks. In addition to us winning (duh), Green Bay losing and Philly losing (Dallas winning) helps us MORE because IF IF IF we don't win the division and end up 11-5, the other wild-card contenders would have at least 5 losses, so we would be the #5 seed at worst (ok...if Green Bay/Detroit tie their game and both end up 11-4-1, then we could be the #6 seed.) And we have decent shot at 10-6...but let's not go there...

As some have said...just win and end the drama! :th2thumbs:

I predict there will be three posts like this a day from now until the end of the season. Anybody want to take the over or the under?

If we go 12-4 (wins over Az and St.L):
If Dallas doesn’t win out, we’re guaranteed a 1-seed (1v1 tiebreaks vs. Det, GB, and Az, the only other possible 12-4 teams).

If Dallas DOES win out…
If one of Detroit or Green Bay also wins out (12-4) (they can’t both win out as they play in wk.17), this leads to a three-way tie with them, us, and Dallas. Hilariously, despite Dallas beating us 1v1 earlier this season, we actually win the three-team tiebreaker with either NFCN team based on division record, and Dallas loses the 1v1 tiebreak vs either GB or Det, and thus get knocked down to the 3-seed while Det/GB takes the 2 and we get the 1-seed.
If both Detroit and GB go 11-4-1 or worse (i.e. don’t win out), we lose tiebreakers to Dallas and land in the 2-seed.

If we go 11-5 (loss to Az):
We can’t finish higher than a 5-seed (Az guaranteed at least 12-4 finish to our maximum 11-5, even if we go 2-0 vs them)
If Dallas goes 12-4, they win the division and we get a 5-seed, unless Detroit and GB both finish 11-4-1, in which case we get a 6-seed.

If Dallas goes 11-5:
If Philly DOESN’T win out, Dallas wins the East and we get a 5-seed, unless Det and GB finish 11-4-1, in which case we get a 6-seed.
If Dallas goes 11-5 AND Philadelphia wins out, Philly wins the division on div. record. And:
If the NFCN teams both go 11-5 or better, then we end up in ANOTHER hilarious situation wherein Dallas misses the PLAYOFFS on a three-way tiebreaker with us and an NFCN team. We get the 5th seed.
If one of the NFCN teams goes 10-6, Dallas wins the 1v1 tiebreak against us and takes the 5th seed and we’re knocked down to 6th.
If both NFCN teams go 11-4-1 (with a tie against each other in wk.17), we actually miss the playoffs… but fortunately this is (almost) the only possible way we miss at 11-5. (There’s one other way, but it’s virtually impossible.)
If Dallas goes 10-6, we get a 5-seed, barring GB and Det finishing 11-4-1, in which case we get a 6-seed.
If Dallas ties one game, it doesn’t really change anything. They win the division at 11-4-1, and they miss the playoffs at 10-5-1. If they somehow go 10-4-2, AND Philly goes 11-5, AND Det and GB both go 11-4-1 (yes, this means three ties between these three teams in the last two weeks of the season), then we miss the playoffs. Yeah.

If we go 11-5 (loss to StL):
If Az beats SF in wk.17, things are the same as if we went 11-5 with a loss to Az.
If Az LOSES to SF, we win the division and get a 2- or 3-seed depending on Dallas. (I won’t go into detail; you understand this by now.)

If we go 10-6:
Things are actually pretty simple.
If Philly loses the division to Dallas AND goes 10-6 or worse, we make the playoffs. 5 vs. 6 seed is obvious and strictly based on record, as we own all non-Dallas tiebreaks. If they go better than 10-6 and the NFCN teams do as well, we miss the playoffs. This is pretty straightforward.
If Philly wins the division, we’re competing with the NFCN teams and Dallas for a WC spot.
If we and Dallas are the only 10-6 teams, we miss the playoffs.
If we, Dallas, and an NFCN team are all 10-6, we win the three-way tiebreaks and Dallas misses the playoffs.

Edit:In the event of a three team tie for #1, we win due to better CONFERENCE record, not divisional record.

Simple version:
*Step 1: Seahawks win out
*Step 2: Green Bay OR Detroit wins out
*Step 3: Seahawks get #1 seed
*Step 4: Superb Owl

Really simple version: Go 1-0 every week, let everything else fall into place.

HawkGA":3bb35weu said:

I predict there will be three posts like this a day from now until the end of the season. Anybody want to take the over or the under?

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I hope it goes over. I love this stuff.

More Motivation to beat the Pokes...this guy is a fan

hawksfansinceday1":2d6fxd11 said:

KitsapGuy":2d6fxd11 said:

By winning their next two games, the Seahawks can do no worse than the two seed in the NFC. That would at least give them a bye week and leave them one win away from an NFC Championship game. In the only scenario where Seattle could win out and not get a number one seed, the Dallas Cowboys would be getting top billing in the NFC instead.

Click to expand...

And that would be only if just Seattle and Dallas finish 12-4 I believe. If either Detroit or GB also finish 12-4, I believe the Hawks win the 3 way tiebreaker no matter which of those teams is involved. If this is true, we want Detroit and GB to win this week since they play each other in week 17 meaning one of them would finish 12-4 in that scenario.
Can anyone else confirm?

Click to expand...

That is true. A 3 Way tie in the NFC would give Seattle #1 and HFA.

From NFL.com tv "The only way Seattle doesn't win HFA is if there is a 2-way tie with Dallas."