Worst Case Playoff Picture

StoneCold · Dec 16, 2014

This is not a playoff scenario thread. I only want to know what the two worst cases are. From what I've gathered if we lose both of our last two games we're out. If we win either one we are guaranteed to at least be in, but other games will determine our seeding. Amirite?

Thanks,
SC

Cartire · Dec 16, 2014

StoneCold":2xd7couj said:
This is not a playoff scenario thread. I only want to know what the two worst cases are. From what I've gathered if we lose both of our last two games we're out. If we win either one we are guaranteed to at least be in, but other games will determine our seeding. Amirite?

Thanks,
SC

You are correct. Since GB lost this weekend, there is no scenario where we dont get in with 11 wins.

themunn · Dec 16, 2014

we could still be in with 2 losses, but we would need some favourable results elsewhere - some fiddling with the playoff machine has the cardinals getting the 1 seed, lions 2 seed, dallas 3 and 6-8-1 panthers. then we are the 5th seed and the packers 6th. can also fudge it so the eagles win the division and the cowboys beat out the packers for 6th. that would be a sweet combination.

basically, with 2 games left to go it's still wide open.

there is at least 1 scenario where we don't make the playoffs with 11 wins, but it requires detroit and green bay to tie.

StoneCold · Dec 16, 2014

Hmm, I don't see any scenario where we get 11 wins and don't get in. But I have a small brain.

SC

exhilo · Dec 16, 2014

StoneCold":3tm0na4d said:
Hmm, I don't see any scenario where we get 11 wins and don't get in. But I have a small brain.

SC

According to ESPN we still need help at 11-5. I don't see PHI, DET, or GB losing this week.

Seattle clinches a playoff spot with:

1) SEA win + PHI loss or tie OR
2) SEA win + DET loss or tie OR
3) SEA win + GB loss or tie OR
4) SEA tie + PHI loss OR
5) SEA tie + DET loss + GB loss OR
6) PHI loss + DAL win or tie

themunn · Dec 16, 2014

StoneCold":222p7ct2 said:
Hmm, I don't see any scenario where we get 11 wins and don't get in. But I have a small brain.

SC

If we're in a 3 way tie with Eagles and Cowboys at 11-5, then the three-way tie doesn't matter, the division champion is resolved first (and Eagles win). Then we have a two way tie with Dallas for the WC, which Dallas win for the wildcard.

If the Lions and Packers tie, then they finish 11-4-1, so they get the 2nd seed and wildcard, and we are on the outside looking in. Cardinals with the 1 seed, Lions 2nd seed, Eagles 3rd, NFC south 4th, Packers 5th and Cowboys 6th.

It's a very improbable set of circumstances, but still possible.

HawkFan72 · Dec 16, 2014

Yes we could be in the playoffs if we lose our next 2 games, but it would require both Detroit and GB to lose this week. Cowboys too. Basically all our competition would have to lose this week as well for us to get in with 2 losses.

Cartire · Dec 16, 2014

StoneCold":38id0jxh said:
Hmm, I don't see any scenario where we get 11 wins and don't get in. But I have a small brain.

SC

There is the event of a tie with either us or other teams that could potentially keep us out at 11-5. But if we throw tie scenerios out the window, we are in at 11-5 no matter what.

StoneCold · Dec 16, 2014

themunn":2xyq13gb said:
StoneCold":2xyq13gb said:

Hmm, I don't see any scenario where we get 11 wins and don't get in. But I have a small brain.

SC

Click to expand...

If we're in a 3 way tie with Eagles and Cowboys at 11-5, then the three-way tie doesn't matter, the division champion is resolved first (and Eagles win). Then we have a two way tie with Dallas for the WC, which Dallas win for the wildcard.

If the Lions and Packers tie, then they finish 11-4-1, so they get the 2nd seed and wildcard, and we are on the outside looking in. Cardinals with the 1 seed, Lions 2nd seed, Eagles 3rd, NFC south 4th, Packers 5th and Cowboys 6th.

It's a very improbable set of circumstances, but still possible.

This is the only scenario where we go 11-5 and don't make the playoffs. Sweet. I'll take those odds.

Thanks,
SC

exhilo · Dec 16, 2014

If we beat the Card's, we take first place in the division, correct?

StoneCold · Dec 16, 2014

exhilo":309fifh9 said:
If we beat the Card's, we take first place in the division, correct?

No, if we win in week 16, AZ will be 11-4 and we'll be 11-4. If AZ wins week 17 and we lose they're 12-4 and we're 11-5. Still in unless GB and DET tie in the final game.

SC

BlueTalons · Dec 16, 2014

Dallas win + Eagles loss puts us in at 10-6 as this eliminates the Eagles. This is the most likely "worst case."

SalishHawkFan · Dec 16, 2014

themunn":2i4nye6n said:
we could still be in with 2 losses, but we would need some favourable results elsewhere - some fiddling with the playoff machine has the cardinals getting the 1 seed, lions 2 seed, dallas 3 and 6-8-1 panthers. then we are the 5th seed and the packers 6th. can also fudge it so the eagles win the division and the cowboys beat out the packers for 6th. that would be a sweet combination.

basically, with 2 games left to go it's still wide open.

there is at least 1 scenario where we don't make the playoffs with 11 wins, but it requires detroit and green bay to tie.

No. If GB ends tied with Detroit and Seattle at 11-5 under all possible ways that could happen, Seattle gets the seed ahead of GB. I've test it on both the Playoff Machine and the Predictor.

SalishHawkFan · Dec 16, 2014

SalishHawkFan":3d4o0uyg said:
themunn":3d4o0uyg said:

we could still be in with 2 losses, but we would need some favourable results elsewhere - some fiddling with the playoff machine has the cardinals getting the 1 seed, lions 2 seed, dallas 3 and 6-8-1 panthers. then we are the 5th seed and the packers 6th. can also fudge it so the eagles win the division and the cowboys beat out the packers for 6th. that would be a sweet combination.

basically, with 2 games left to go it's still wide open.

there is at least 1 scenario where we don't make the playoffs with 11 wins, but it requires detroit and green bay to tie.

Click to expand...

No. If GB ends tied with Detroit and Seattle at 11-5 under all possible ways that could happen, Seattle gets the seed ahead of GB. I've test it on both the Playoff Machine and the Predictor. If you mean tie teh game, that doesn't knock them out either.

Hasselbeck · Dec 16, 2014

exhilo":2geb0jno said:
StoneCold":2geb0jno said:

Hmm, I don't see any scenario where we get 11 wins and don't get in. But I have a small brain.

SC

Click to expand...

According to ESPN we still need help at 11-5. I don't see PHI, DET, or GB losing this week.

Seattle clinches a playoff spot with:

1) SEA win + PHI loss or tie OR
2) SEA win + DET loss or tie OR
3) SEA win + GB loss or tie OR
4) SEA tie + PHI loss OR
5) SEA tie + DET loss + GB loss OR
6) PHI loss + DAL win or tie

That's just to clinch THIS week.

For all intents and purposes, a win clinches a playoff spot because Detroit and GB play in Week 17.

themunn · Dec 16, 2014

SalishHawkFan":189kdag3 said:
themunn":189kdag3 said:

we could still be in with 2 losses, but we would need some favourable results elsewhere - some fiddling with the playoff machine has the cardinals getting the 1 seed, lions 2 seed, dallas 3 and 6-8-1 panthers. then we are the 5th seed and the packers 6th. can also fudge it so the eagles win the division and the cowboys beat out the packers for 6th. that would be a sweet combination.

basically, with 2 games left to go it's still wide open.

there is at least 1 scenario where we don't make the playoffs with 11 wins, but it requires detroit and green bay to tie.

Click to expand...

No. If GB ends tied with Detroit and Seattle at 11-5 under all possible ways that could happen, Seattle gets the seed ahead of GB. I've test it on both the Playoff Machine and the Predictor.

I explained exactly how it could happen - if Philly and Dallas also finish 11-5 and Philly win the division. Then we lose out to Dallas on H2H for the WC (because the three way tie wouldn't come into it, as Philly/Dallas has to be resolved first for the division winner).

Oddly enough as well, if we and Dallas finish 12-4 and both Green Bay and Detroit win next week, then a tie would give Dallas the number 1 seed, but a win either way would give us the number 1 seed.

Sgt. Largent · Dec 16, 2014

Hasselbeck":1co0j1sj said:
For all intents and purposes, a win clinches a playoff spot because Detroit and GB play in Week 17.

Even if the one win is against the Rams?

StoneCold · Dec 16, 2014

Sgt. Largent":2ir0m1al said:
Hasselbeck":2ir0m1al said:

For all intents and purposes, a win clinches a playoff spot because Detroit and GB play in Week 17.

Click to expand...

Even if the one win is against the Rams?

Yes. If we lose the AZ, but win agaisnt the Rams, the only way we don't at least make the playoffs is if GB and DET tie in their final game. What changes is seeding.

SC

BlueTalons · Dec 16, 2014

BlueTalons":3hor2vuz said:
Dallas win + Eagles loss puts us in at 10-6 as this eliminates the Eagles. This is the most likely "worst case."

And since Philly (Saturday) and Dallas (Sunday 1PM) play before we do, we could clinch a post-season berth before we kick-off in Az!

Worst Case Playoff Picture

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