RW's extension speculation

Russell is technically able to start negotiating his extension 11 days from now and has also recently changed agents in preparation for that. Needless to say his new agent is a lucky man. Russell is set to make a fortune and rightfully so.

That said, there was a link I came across recently that offered the best data and reasoning behind what a potential extension would look like with comparison to recent contemporaries such as Dalton, Kap, etc.

The salary cap is expected to go up significant next year again and that should help along with year 1 cap charges are typically fairly low. Say 8m or so for RW year 1 depending on how it's written. That should give us another year of favorable salary cap to keep depth and some of our core guys coming up for signing/extensions.

http://www.spotrac.com/premium/research ... nsion-489/

What do you think RW will get? Years/dollars/guaranteed?

Spotrac is speculating 6 years / 132m total (22m average) / 64m guaranteed

Isn't it until after the league year, which isn't until March?

Technically he is eligible once the regular season ends but no one will negotiate then. It will obviously be in the offseason but I put in there to convey the point that it is rapidly approaching.

Cool thing is he can earn more this Sunday.

I don't think the spotrac numbers are off by a whole lot. I also don't think it will play out too long, but it probably won't be done too quickly either. I mean we'll need something to bicker over after our 2nd Super Bowl Championship, right?

They start negotiating day after the regular season is complete. 12/29/14.

No matter what RW is signs for he is still VERY cheap next year. Since it will be an extension Only his $800k salary plus prorated signing bonus will count against the cap. $8m sounds about right. I'd be good with Spotracs projection.

Seanhawk":20964gh5 said:

Isn't it until after the league year, which isn't until March?

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Nope, the day after week 17 ends.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... -bus-cook/

I have no idea what Russell will get, it'll be interesting to see because he's the first of his style of QB to sign an extension. Meaning not a tangible huge stats QB that can be easily quantified by an agent to fit into another QB's stats and therefore contract.

Kaep didn't get a lot of guaranteed money, and Newton's still arguing with the Panthers over an extension. No doubt Russell will get a lot of money, but interesting to see how much.

22 mil a year huh? I know he deserves a lot and is gonna get paid, but that is an astronomically high number. Where did that number come from, an agent?

jblaze":24grwyaa said:

What do you think RW will get? Years/dollars/guaranteed?

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Yes, I think he will get all of those things.

akscoundrel":p75ihugw said:

22 mil a year huh? I know he deserves a lot and is gonna get paid, but that is an astronomically high number. Where did that number come from, an agent?

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There are several factors that would lead him to be the highest paid QB to date.

1. SB win(s)
2. Salary cap going up which means by extension, salaries will go up
3. He's been underpaid to date and deserves some "back pay" so to speak
4. He's the prototypical face of your franchise (great guy, does community work, says the right thing, not getting in trouble with law)
5. He's young and will only get better
6. He's one of the few successful dual threat QB's and he doesn't take the punishment most others do which is rare so his durability is very high
7. Most wins in first 3 years in history
8. Excellent leadership characteristics
9. Arguably could be much better statistically with a better OLine and WR's


I think these are a few that come to mind right off the top of my head. I think he does get around 21-22m on average.

He's arguably the best young QB in the league right now (right there with Luck) and is the future of the NFL. He has just about every variable working in his favor in these negotiations. The FO will pay him because that's what they do with their homegrown prospects who do things the right way. This sets a great precedent and example to other players and potential free agents. Do things the right way and you'll be rewarded.

Pay the man! Paying 22m for a franchise QB who actually performs like one (see Cutler) is a great problem to have.

I've heard anywhere from 20-24 million is what the market would dictate. It will be interesting to see what happens. I wouldn't be shocked if he took a little bit of a discount to stay here but wouldn't fault him if he took as much as he can, he's earned it.

austinslater25":30ynndh3 said:

I've heard anywhere from 20-24 million is what the market would dictate. It will be interesting to see what happens. I wouldn't be shocked if he took a little bit of a discount to stay here but wouldn't fault him if he took as much as he can, he's earned it.

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24 million per year is too much for any single player. Yeah, the salary cap is going to be higher, but chances are he's still going to take up greater than 15 percent of the cap with that salary depending on the structure.

I was sort of hoping we would see him play out the last year of his contract at his ELC rate. Seattle has a tradition of ripping up the final year of a contract even though they are entitled to the lesser amount.

He will get an extension. The signing bonus will be spread over five years and probably be in the $20 million area. So the only cap hit that you will take in 2015 additionally is the $4million from the cap hit

Yes this is speculation but it is based on how other contracts were done last year and it makes the most sense since you can roll over unused cap.

Spin Doctor":1aoyfolj said:

24 million per year is too much for any single player.

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Gonna have to get used to it. He's going to get at or near that amount.

MidwestHawker":22iu059a said:

Spin Doctor":22iu059a said:

24 million per year is too much for any single player.

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Gonna have to get used to it. He's going to get at or near that amount.

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Based on what? Aaron Rodgers is worth 22MM APY...Aaron Rodgers is a 10 out of 10 QB. Russell is an 8.5 out of 10.

Even if you argue Russell is just below the elite all time "greats" he would sit somewhere in the $19-22MM range.

Aaron Rodgers
Packers
$110,000,000 $22,000,000 $54,000,000 $10,800,000 49.1% 2020 UFA
Matt Ryan
Falcons
$103,750,000 $20,750,000 $42,000,000 $8,400,000 40.5% 2019 UFA
Joe Flacco
Ravens
$120,600,000 $20,100,000 $29,000,000 $4,833,333 24.0% 2019 UFA
Drew Brees
Saints
$100,000,000 $20,000,000 $40,000,000 $8,000,000 40.0% 2017 UFA
Peyton Manning
Broncos
$96,000,000 $19,200,000 $18,000,000 $3,600,000 18.8% 2017 UFA
Colin Kaepernick
49ers
$114,000,000 $19,000,000 $12,973,766 $2,162,294 11.4% 2021 UFA
Jay Cutler
Bears
$126,700,000 $18,100,000 $38,000,000 $5,428,571 30.0% 2021 UFA
Tony Romo
Cowboys
$108,000,000 $18,000,000 $40,000,000 $6,666,666 37.0% 2020 UFA
Matt Stafford
Lions
$53,000,000 $17,666,667 $41,500,000 $13,833,333 78.3% 2018 UFA
Alex Smith
Chiefs
$68,000,000 $17,000,000 $19,000,000 $4,750,000 27.9% 2019 UFA

lukerguy":2exnxai2 said:

MidwestHawker":2exnxai2 said:

Spin Doctor":2exnxai2 said:

24 million per year is too much for any single player.

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Gonna have to get used to it. He's going to get at or near that amount.

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Based on what? Aaron Rodgers is worth 22MM APY...Aaron Rodgers is a 10 out of 10 QB. Russell is an 8.5 out of 10.

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Based on inflation. I agree that Rodgers is worth more than Wilson, but contracts steadily go up as the cap continues to increase, and Rodgers's extension predates that unexpectedly large cap increase that we saw. Russell may fall a bit short of $24 million, but you're not going to see him get less than Rodgers despite being the lesser player.

I think we are lucky in that the last benchmark is Kaepernick's contract and that Newton chose not to do an extension yet. We definitely don't want to wait on it though because you don't want to have Luck setting the benchmark. But if he wins another Superbowl, 22M will be a bargain like it or not.

Bigpumpkin":1rkkomxz said:

I honestly believe that Russell's value system is not based on piles of money.

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I see people say this and can never fully understand why. My best guess is that they think that athletes shouldn't want market value or something, but most do, and certainly Russell should go for as much as he can get after literally playing at like 2% of market value during his rookie contract.