Spotrac on Wilson's new contract

dumbrabbit · Dec 24, 2014

(I couldn't find the old thread on Wilson's contract predictions so I'm posting a new thread)

Not sure if you need a membership to read, but an interesting article here: http://www.spotrac.com/premium/research ... nsion-489/

The only thing I disagree with is the predicted contract. There's no way Wilson will make that kind of money. They give Wilson $20M a year, there's no way Wagner is staying. I wlll gladly bet a fortune against everybody on this board that Wilson's contract will NOT be $100M+ over 6 years. Kaep got a large contract in part because only a portion is guaranteed.

I will bet you Wilson's contract will be fully guaranteed, and I can predict a 4 year, $50,000,000-fully guaranteed contract. Wilson's contract will be club friendly, with the ability to re-sign Wagner to that type of contract as well, unlike Kaepernick who is making $19M a year.Sure, a little less than half of it is guaranteed, but why sign a guy like Kaepernick to that contract if you're still unsettled(pick the right word here) with him? That's just bad GM'ing. John Schneider is much more smarter than that.

Just my two cents. Anyone else?

EDIT: looking at his contract. It certainly is club friendly, but why sign a guy to a contract like that, unless it's Kaepernick who didn't want so much guaranteed money.

theincrediblesok · Dec 24, 2014

John Schneider drafted Wilson, that's his QB. He will give him what he's worth. I saw that Davis Hsu posted something about putting a franchise tag on Bobby.

dumbrabbit · Dec 24, 2014

I guess that makes sense, but $11M certainly seems like a lot of money for one more year of Bobby Wagner. But we'll see JS has in store this offseason.

I'm still certain that Wilson won't get $25M(he's certainly worth it), but by doing so Bobby Wagner will have to settle for a discount if he wants to stay in Seattle.

ImTheScientist · Dec 24, 2014

I'll take the OP up on that bet.

theincrediblesok · Dec 24, 2014

I think franchising for Bobby was one of the option if they couldn't get right with the numbers, or do a 5 year extension instead of the usual 4 years that most players are getting from the FO. The casualty was pretty much Maxwell, and Malcom

Mick063 · Dec 24, 2014

Anyone that thinks Russell will sign for anything less than Flacco money is delusional. Especially if he brings home another title.

Don't believe your average dimwit internet pundit when evaluating Wilson's worth. Listen to the coaches and players.

I'll leave you with an exercise:

What did a Redskin defensive back say about Wilson after their game?
Go to NFL.com and click on the Rams logo. Search back for Fisher's post game presser. A game that his team won.
What did Bruce Arians say to the TV sideline reporter about his halftime adjustments last Sunday?

A small sample size. I could dig up a multitude more if pressed.

There are about 20 teams that would feel like they hit the lottery if they could sign Russell for 20 million a year with half guaranteed. A team like Buffalo, on the cusp, would mortgage their long term future for Wilson. He has been properly tutored and is entering his prime as the winningest QB in history with a world title to show that the moment isn't too big. Among NFL evaluators, he has a reputation for possessing every single intangible. He is compared to Manning with respect to study habits and attention to detail. In short, he would save someone's job as a "big splash" signing.

Did anyone notice how giddy the Patriot fans were to over pay Brandon Browner? Brandon freakin Browner. Well I'll tell you right now, that you could triple the hype for any team that potentially signs Wilson.

I guarantee you that Russell will not be making 11 million a year.

QuahHawk · Dec 24, 2014

I think he sets the record for most guaranteed money ever. Maybe not the highest paid QB but a 6 year $120 mil with $80+ mil guaranteed.

Sac · Dec 24, 2014

Ru$$ell is gong to get PAID.

QuahHawk · Dec 24, 2014

dumbrabbit":13pea8a8 said:
(I couldn't find the old thread on Wilson's contract predictions so I'm posting a new thread)

Not sure if you need a membership to read, but an interesting article here: http://www.spotrac.com/premium/research ... nsion-489/

The only thing I disagree with is the predicted contract. There's no way Wilson will make that kind of money. They give Wilson $20M a year, there's no way Wagner is staying. I wlll gladly bet a fortune against everybody on this board that Wilson's contract will NOT be $100M+ over 6 years. Kaep got a large contract in part because only a portion is guaranteed.

I will bet you Wilson's contract will be fully guaranteed, and I can predict a 4 year, $50,000,000-fully guaranteed contract. Wilson's contract will be club friendly, with the ability to re-sign Wagner to that type of contract as well, unlike Kaepernick who is making $19M a year.Sure, a little less than half of it is guaranteed, but why sign a guy like Kaepernick to that contract if you're still unsettled(pick the right word here) with him? That's just bad GM'ing. John Schneider is much more smarter than that.

Just my two cents. Anyone else?

EDIT: looking at his contract. It certainly is club friendly, but why sign a guy to a contract like that, unless it's Kaepernick who didn't want so much guaranteed money.

Kap got $61 mil guaranteed. Wilson's contract has to top that.

Barakas · Dec 24, 2014

Wenhawk":tau4miwj said:
dumbrabbit":tau4miwj said:

(I couldn't find the old thread on Wilson's contract predictions so I'm posting a new thread)

Not sure if you need a membership to read, but an interesting article here: http://www.spotrac.com/premium/research ... nsion-489/

The only thing I disagree with is the predicted contract. There's no way Wilson will make that kind of money. They give Wilson $20M a year, there's no way Wagner is staying. I wlll gladly bet a fortune against everybody on this board that Wilson's contract will NOT be $100M+ over 6 years. Kaep got a large contract in part because only a portion is guaranteed.

I will bet you Wilson's contract will be fully guaranteed, and I can predict a 4 year, $50,000,000-fully guaranteed contract. Wilson's contract will be club friendly, with the ability to re-sign Wagner to that type of contract as well, unlike Kaepernick who is making $19M a year.Sure, a little less than half of it is guaranteed, but why sign a guy like Kaepernick to that contract if you're still unsettled(pick the right word here) with him? That's just bad GM'ing. John Schneider is much more smarter than that.

Just my two cents. Anyone else?

EDIT: looking at his contract. It certainly is club friendly, but why sign a guy to a contract like that, unless it's Kaepernick who didn't want so much guaranteed money.

Click to expand...

Kap got $61 mil guaranteed. Wilson's contract has to top that.

That isn't exactly correct. There's a lot of ifs, ands, and buts around those "guarantees". Here's an excerpt from here:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... t-details/

Technically, the deal has $61 million guaranteed, even though $6 million of the guaranteed salary could evaporate (more on that later). Either way, only $13.073 million is guaranteed at signing. It comes in the form of a $12.328 million signing bonus, a base salary of $645,000, and a workout bonus of $100,000.

For 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and part of 2018, the base salaries are guaranteed only for injury. On April 1 of each year, the guarantees convert from injury only to fully guaranteed. That gives the 49ers the ability to decide, in any given year, to move on from Kaepernick. And with the deadline for the conversion of the guarantee coming on April 1, the 49ers can squat on his rights until several weeks after the start of free agency, making it harder for him to get paid elsewhere.

kearly · Dec 25, 2014

It's just about unheard of for a true franchise QB to become a cap casualty. Even mediocre QBs like Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton are not even being considered for it. As long as a QB has a pulse, he'll have trade value to some team. QBs care very little about guaranteed money. Just look at the deal Kaepernick signed which only had about $13 million or so in true guaranteed money.

As a fan, you want to see Wilson take 4/50 all guaranteed because you know he's never getting cut. And he would know it to, so why would he ever take that deal?

Wilson wants to own a team, and that means he's going to need a lot of money. Not only do I think that he'll sign for more per year than Kaepernick, but he'll probably take a shorter deal so that he can dip into free agency again as soon as possible and take advantage of NFL salary inflation.

I think Wilson's deal is going to be a lot like the deal Aaron Rodgers got. Rodgers got 5 years for $110 million two offseasons ago. $22 million back then would be like $25 million in next year's cap equivalency. I think Russ signs for 4 years $90-100 million, or something close to that.

Seattle can work this into their cap because they still have one cheap year of Wilson's rookie deal left to help shoulder the load. If need be, they can release players to save money. Perhaps Lynch, perhaps Okung, perhaps Unger.

Wagner isn't going anywhere. It would be gross incompetence to pay KJ Wright top dollar and then turn around and let Wagner walk. They wouldn't sign Wright if they didn't have Wagner budgeted too.

Bigpumpkin · Dec 25, 2014

Wenhawk":yl3seoej said:
I think he sets the record for most guaranteed money ever. Maybe not the highest paid QB but a 6 year $120 mil with $80+ mil guaranteed.

I agree...perhaps 90% guaranteed.

TwilightError · Dec 25, 2014

Wilson strikes me as a guy who ia willing to bet on himself.

Tical21 · Dec 25, 2014

kearly":3ek58hmk said:
It's just about unheard of for a true franchise QB to become a cap casualty. Even mediocre QBs like Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton are not even being considered for it. As long as a QB has a pulse, he'll have trade value to some team. QBs care very little about guaranteed money. Just look at the deal Kaepernick signed which only had about $13 million or so in true guaranteed money.

As a fan, you want to see Wilson take 4/50 all guaranteed because you know he's never getting cut. And he would know it to, so why would he ever take that deal?

Wilson wants to own a team, and that means he's going to need a lot of money. Not only do I think that he'll sign for more per year than Kaepernick, but he'll probably take a shorter deal so that he can dip into free agency again as soon as possible and take advantage of NFL salary inflation.

I think Wilson's deal is going to be a lot like the deal Aaron Rodgers got. Rodgers got 5 years for $110 million two offseasons ago. $22 million back then would be like $25 million in next year's cap equivalency. I think Russ signs for 4 years $90-100 million, or something close to that.

Seattle can work this into their cap because they still have one cheap year of Wilson's rookie deal left to help shoulder the load. If need be, they can release players to save money. Perhaps Lynch, perhaps Okung, perhaps Unger.

Wagner isn't going anywhere. It would be gross incompetence to pay KJ Wright top dollar and then turn around and let Wagner walk. They wouldn't sign Wright if they didn't have Wagner budgeted too.

I agree on all counts. We now wait patiently to see who they don't have budgeted. Maxwell? Lynch? Mebane? Okung?

The one drawback about their plan is that it isn't going to allow them to do what they do best, which is draft and develop DB's and LB's. It is time for them get some production out of young offensive players, because I don't think they can buy any for a while.

themunn · Dec 25, 2014

50m over 4 years?
you are insane.
it will be something like 130 over 6. book it.
and we'll still find a way to extend wagner.

seahawks187 · Dec 25, 2014

love all the speculation but my goodness .. I've never been one to try and play GM, but honestly I think RW will want X and JS / PC will say X and they will negotiate and meet in the middle somewhere.. whateve that # is they will have the team in mind, including RW.

WilsonMVP · Dec 25, 2014

Wenhawk":262cmm9i said:
I think he sets the record for most guaranteed money ever. Maybe not the highest paid QB but a 6 year $120 mil with $80+ mil guaranteed.

And then the next day Luck has the largest contract ever in the nfl haha

randomation · Dec 25, 2014

WilsonMVP":2naptioa said:
Wenhawk":2naptioa said:

I think he sets the record for most guaranteed money ever. Maybe not the highest paid QB but a 6 year $120 mil with $80+ mil guaranteed.

Click to expand...

And then the next day Luck has the largest contract ever in the nfl haha

Good the colts can keep the turnover machine and overpay the hell out of him.

HansGruber · Dec 25, 2014

6 years, $135m - $60m guaranteed

Again, with "cash" value of NFL teams currently at $2b+ (thanks to Buffalo), Russell will never be more than a minority owner. The NFL is the billionaire boys club and even guys like Donald Trump don't have the cash to play at that table.

425HawkSpark · Dec 25, 2014

Am I the only one that thinks we will throw some thing crazy at him like a 10 year deal back loaded to squeeze in wags now.

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