Stewart vs. Lynch (by the numbers)

I posted this in another thread and then after doing so, thought that it would be better to make this its own thread. In reading some of the comments today, I saw some Panthers fans comparing Jonathan Stewart's production this year to Marshawn Lynch.

Now I'm not arguing talent, running ability, or physical giftedness as a runner ... but comparing Jonathan Stewart to Marshawn Lynch? Really? Seriously?

My question when evaluating statistics is always -- Against WHOM? Let's answer that by taking a look at the defenses that Carolina and Seattle have faced since squaring off in Week 8. Here are the numbers according to Football Outsiders (they speak for themselves) ...

Week 9 ...
Stewart vs. Saints (Home) ... 8 carries for 46 yards (5.8 yds/carry) ... 0 TD
(Saints 32nd in DVOA against the Run)

Lynch vs. Raiders (Home) ... 21 carries for 67 yards (3.2 yds/carry) ... 2 TD
(Raiders 13th in DVOA against the Run)

Week 10 ...
Stewart vs. Eagles (Road) ... 11 carries for 36 yards (3.3 yds/carry) ... 1 TD
(Eagles 6th in DVOA against the Run)

Lynch vs. Giants (Home) ... 21 carries for 140 yards (6.7 yds/carry) ... 4 TD
(Giants 27th in DVOA against the Run)

Week 11 ...
Stewart vs. Falcons (Home) ... 7 carries for 24 yards (3.4 yds/carry) .. 0 TD
(Falcons 30th in DVOA against the Run)

Lynch vs. Chiefs (Road) ... 24 carries for 124 yards (5.2 yds/carry) ... 0 TD
(Chiefs 25th in DVOA against the Run)

Week 12 ...
BYE for Panthers

Lynch vs. Cardinals (Home) ... 15 carries for 39 yards ... 0 TD
(Cardinals 7th best DVOA team against the Run)

Week 13 ...
Stewart vs. Vikings (Road) ... 12 carries for 85 yards (7.1 yds/carry) ... 0 TD
(Vikings 26th in DVOA against the Run)

Lynch vs. 49ers (Road) ... 20 carries for 104 yards (5.2 yds/carry) ... 0 TD
(49ers 10th best DVOA team against the Run)

Week 14 ...
Stewart vs. Saints (Road) ... 20 carries for 155 yards (7.8 yds/carry) ... 1 TD
(Saints 32nd in DVOA against the Run)

Lynch vs. Eagles (Road) ... 23 carries for 86 yards (3.7 yds/carry) ... 0 TD
(Eagles 6th in DVOA against the Run)

Week 15 ...
Stewart vs. Bucs (Home) ... 22 carries for 75 yards (3.4 yds/carry) ... 0 TD
(Bucs 8th best DVOA team against the Run)

Lynch vs. 49ers (Home) ... 21 carries for 91 yards (4.3 yds/carry) ... 1 TD
(49ers 10th best DVOA team against the Run)

Week 16 ...
Stewart vs. Browns (Home) ... 24 carries for 122 yards (5.1 yds/carry) ... 0 TD
(Browns 31st in DVOA against the Run)

Lynch vs. Cardinals (Road) ... 10 carries for 113 yards ... 2 TD
(Cardinals 7th best DVOA team against the Run)

Week 17 ...
Stewart vs. Falcons (Road) ... 13 carries for 49 yards (3.8 yds/carry) .. 0 TD
(Falcons 30th in DVOA against the Run)

Lynch vs. Rams (Home) ... 14 carries for 60 yards (4.3 yds/carry) ... 1 TD
(Rams 4th best DVOA team against the Run)

What about our respective teams? According to Football Outsiders ...

The Panthers ... are the 22nd best DVOA team against the Run
The Seahawks ... are the 2nd best DVOA team against the Run

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

I'm just saying ...

Wow! Great breakdown. Should be interesting. I don't expect a close game....if they key on Beast then RW will exploit them. Seattle also leads the league again In Toxic Differential too. Seahawks +76 and Panthers are only +10. Huge gap between the 2 teams.


Link:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tial/2014/

After reading those stats, and having Unger back to go along with Star out seems almost unfair.

In summary, The NFC West is the badass defense division. Has been for the last three years. Add to that the first place schedule and the AFC West.

Panther fans think they are facing a woefully weak (by the passing numbers) offense. What they are really facing is an offense that has been seriously challenged and honed. An offense that leads the entire league in rushing yardage by a huge margin and doing it against tough, hard nosed defenses.

Panther fans are in for an awakening. This isn't a 10:00 am start on the East Coast. This is home in primetime.

Chawks1":378pc0cb said:

Wow! Great breakdown. Should be interesting. I don't expect a close game....if they key on Beast then RW will exploit them. Seattle also leads the league again In Toxic Differential too. Seahawks +76 and Panthers are only +10. Huge gap between the 2 teams.


Link:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tial/2014/

Click to expand...

I couldn't agree more.

Chawks1":3n5no6vd said:

Wow! Great breakdown. Should be interesting. I don't expect a close game....if they key on Beast then RW will exploit them. Seattle also leads the league again In Toxic Differential too. Seahawks +76 and Panthers are only +10. Huge gap between the 2 teams.


Link:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tial/2014/

Click to expand...

The real eye opener is factoring in Strength of Schedule with Toxic Differential. What would be truly jaw dropping would be using both metrics after the 3-3 start, relative to other teams starting at that point of the season.

In short, Seattle is limiting turnovers, taking the ball away, not allowing big plays, and making big plays at a combined margin that far exceeds other teams. All of that against a top five schedule strength.

With respect to plays greater than 20 yards in the running game, Seattle is amazingly good.

Mick063":b4l690ix said:

Chawks1":b4l690ix said:

Wow! Great breakdown. Should be interesting. I don't expect a close game....if they key on Beast then RW will exploit them. Seattle also leads the league again In Toxic Differential too. Seahawks +76 and Panthers are only +10. Huge gap between the 2 teams.


Link:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats ... tial/2014/

Click to expand...

The real eye opener is factoring in Strength of Schedule with Toxic Differential. What would be truly jaw dropping would be using both metrics after the 3-3 start, relative to other teams starting at that point of the season.

In short, Seattle is limiting turnovers, taking the ball away, not allowing big plays, and making big plays at a combined margin that far exceeds other teams. All of that against a top five schedule strength.

With respect to plays greater than 20 yards in the running game, Seattle is amazingly good.

Click to expand...

For me, the real stunning thing about the Toxic Differential Numbers is the distance between the Seahawks and the #2 and #3 teams on that list ...

#1 - Seahawks +76
#2 - Broncos +53
#3 - Packers +37

The Panthers are #10 on that list with a +12

Crazy!