Game VS Packers is Similar to SB 48

Pandion Haliaetus · Jan 12, 2015

First off,

#1 Offense DVOA (Packers) vs #1 Defense DVOA (Seahawks)

Secondly, which Offense was better?

2013 Denver Broncos:
http://m.pfref.com/m?p=XXteamsXXden...ing_and_receiving&t=all_rushing_and_receiving

2014 Green Bay Packers:
http://m.pfref.com/m?p=XXteamsXXgnb...ing_and_receiving&t=all_rushing_and_receiving

Old Peyton Manning = Hobbled Aaron Rodgers

Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Andre Caldwell
.............................. VS...........................
Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams

Nelson and Cobb had slightly statistically better seasons than Thomas and Decker but once you add Welker and Caldwell its not even close. Broncos 4th WR had 200 yards, 3 TDs... Packer 4th WR is Jarett Boykins and he caught like 3 passes.

DB: Julius Thomas, Jacob Tamme > Andrew Quarless, Richard Rodgers

Julius Thomas alone had more production than the other 3 TEs listed. Tamme had 184 yards, 1 TD.

Knowshon Moreno/ Montee Ball / Ronnie Hillman
............................ VS.............................
Eddie Lacy/ James Starks/ John Kuhn

Moreno and Lacy had pretty much the same production from scrimmage. While Ball was more productive than Starks/Kuhn combined, and Ronnie Hillman, the Broncos third RB provided another 300+ yards of combined offense. But can't decide based on style points.

DVOA says Broncos by 7% but what does the match-ups say? If anything it would seem the Packer have less weapons to utilize but are every bit as potent across the board save for TE.

But potent means jack-squat against the No. 1 Defense where those two league best offenses scored a combine 24 points in the SB and WK 1 of this year.

In the last 3 years, in 3 games at the CLINK and 1 game @ the SB those two QBs and their respective offenses combined for 56 points or 14 points per Game.

Thirdly,

Seahawks quietly have the #6 Offensive DVOA, I think they were 7th last year.

And like the Broncos in the Superbowl who ranked 15th in Defensive DVOA....

The Packers bring an even more middling defense to the CLink on the road.

Seahawks ranked 6th O vs Packers ranked 18th D

Again this where I expect the Seahawks to pull away, just play their game, and points will come.

Both teams in Special Team DVOA aren't all that special. Packers are 21st and the Seahawks are not much better at 19th.

Lastly, just random tidbits:

Patriots are a scary team because of how well-coached and well-round they are. In DVOA, they rank:

3rd OFF
11th DEF
5th ST

And here's proof that INDY is NOT ALL LUCK, their DVOA rankings:

21st OFF
10th DEF
8th ST

Chawks1 · Jan 12, 2015

I agree, especially with a hobbled Rodgers. And if you breakdown both teams Toxic Differential and combine with strength of schedule and strength of victories for each team...... I expect good things this weekend.

BlueBlood · Jan 12, 2015

Pandion Haliaetus":3kr9tnxg said:
First off,

#1 Offense DVOA (Packers) vs #1 Defense DVOA (Seahawks)

Secondly, which Offense was better?

2013 Denver Broncos:
http://m.pfref.com/m?p=XXteamsXXden...ing_and_receiving&t=all_rushing_and_receiving

2014 Green Bay Packers:
http://m.pfref.com/m?p=XXteamsXXgnb...ing_and_receiving&t=all_rushing_and_receiving

Old Peyton Manning = Hobbled Aaron Rodgers

Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Andre Caldwell
.............................. VS...........................
Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams

Nelson and Cobb had slightly statistically better seasons than Thomas and Decker but once you add Welker and Caldwell its not even close. Broncos 4th WR had 200 yards, 3 TDs... Packer 4th WR is Jarett Boykins and he caught like 3 passes.

DB: Julius Thomas, Jacob Tamme > Andrew Quarless, Richard Rodgers

Julius Thomas alone had more production than the other 3 TEs listed. Tamme had 184 yards, 1 TD.

Knowshon Moreno/ Montee Ball / Ronnie Hillman
............................ VS.............................
Eddie Lacy/ James Starks/ John Kuhn

Moreno and Lacy had pretty much the same production from scrimmage. While Ball was more productive than Starks/Kuhn combined, and Ronnie Hillman, the Broncos third RB provided another 300+ yards of combined offense. But can't decide based on style points.

DVOA says Broncos by 7% but what does the match-ups say? If anything it would seem the Packer have less weapons to utilize but are every bit as potent across the board save for TE.

But potent means jack-squat against the No. 1 Defense where those two league best offenses scored a combine 24 points in the SB and WK 1 of this year.

In the last 3 years, in 3 games at the CLINK and 1 game @ the SB those two QBs and their respective offenses combined for 56 points or 14 points per Game.

Thirdly,

Seahawks quietly have the #6 Offensive DVOA, I think they were 7th last year.

And like the Broncos in the Superbowl who ranked 15th in Defensive DVOA....

The Packers bring an even more middling defense to the CLink on the road.

Seahawks ranked 6th O vs Packers ranked 18th D

Again this where I expect the Seahawks to pull away, just play their game, and points will come.

Both teams in Special Team DVOA aren't all that special. Packers are 21st and the Seahawks are not much better at 19th.

Lastly, just random tidbits:

Patriots are a scary team because of how well-coached and well-round they are. In DVOA, they rank:

3rd OFF
11th DEF
5th ST

And here's proof that INDY is NOT ALL LUCK, their DVOA rankings:

21st OFF
10th DEF
8th ST

Awesome information! Throw in the fact that Rodgers isn't 100% and you have the Broncos substantially better last year than the Packers this year. This is a home game and what happened to Denver on a neutral field? Slaughter . This game shouldn'tbe all that close. If it is, I'll be surprised and be praying (drinking heavily ) for the win.

HawkFan72 · Jan 12, 2015

I don't think a hobbled Rodgers is equal to Manning. Even on one leg, Rodgers still has a way better arm than Peyton at this point in their careers. Rodgers can still make all the throws.

BlueBlood · Jan 12, 2015

HawkFan72":1bki19pl said:
I don't think a hobbled Rodgers is equal to Manning. Even on one leg, Rodgers still has a way better arm than Peyton at this point in their careers. Rodgers can still make all the throws.

Throwing off of one leg is never good. Dallas turnovers cost them the game. Against the Legion Rodger's is going to play scared and if he somehow does have the balls to make some of the throws he made yesterday it will get ugly in a hurry. If he plays timid and they just run the ball the score will likely stay more respectable.

Hawknballs · Jan 12, 2015

Lets give respect where it's due, hobbled Rodgers is still the best QB in the league. It's the fact that he won't be making the running plays he usually does that is key. You remove those place and replace them with possible sacks, forced throws, and hopefully, maybe a turnover or two. But also know he's still going to make some place. That's it. Lets not focus that much on his injury. Lets just be comfortable knowing that to combat the league's best QB, we have the leagues best SS, FS, CB, MLB.

Pandion Haliaetus · Jan 12, 2015

HawkFan72":39wtd60e said:
I don't think a hobbled Rodgers is equal to Manning. Even on one leg, Rodgers still has a way better arm than Peyton at this point in their careers. Rodgers can still make all the throws.

Probably true...

But add in the fact in two early season games (wk 3 '12) and (wk 1 '14) Rodgers on two perfectly fresh legs hasn't played well against the LOB.

I know Manning throws ducks but I think it was his lack of mobility is what hurt him most in the SB, Seahawks were able to knock WRs off their routes, and Manning is not the type of QB to buy time for his WRs.

Rodgers might have the better arm and can make all the the throws but that's a dangerous game to play against this defense... trying to buy time for your WRs to get downfield without any ability to scramble from pressure.

Hawks46 · Jan 12, 2015

A lot of the throws Rodgers was making were pretty wide open, only that last one for a TD was into a tight window.

If he tries to throw into tight windows against us, it's going to cost him. I honestly think the Pack comes out and tries to establish the run. That's where we're the most vulnerable.

The way this hurts Rodgers is that it's going to be harder for him to buy time in the pocket, and I don't see him running with the ball. This is going to make it infinitely easier on our pass rush.

I could see us ending up with 5 sacks this game. If Rodgers is smart, he eats the ball instead of trying to make a play.

Seahawk Sailor · Jan 12, 2015

Hawknballs":19v227z9 said:
Lets give respect where it's due, hobbled Rodgers is still the best QB in the league. It's the fact that he won't be making the running plays he usually does that is key. You remove those place and replace them with possible sacks, forced throws, and hopefully, maybe a turnover or two. But also know he's still going to make some place. That's it. Lets not focus that much on his injury. Lets just be comfortable knowing that to combat the league's best QB, we have the leagues best SS, FS, CB, MLB.

Exactly. Aaron Rodgers, less mobile or not, is still a fantastic quarterback. And he does not throw very many interceptions. If people are expecting him to throw interceptions based on the fact that he's injured, they're in for a rude awakening. His TD:INT ratio is the best in the league, and by a large, clear margin. And this past game, even hobbled, he threw 3 TDs and zero interceptions, with a quarterback rating of 125.4. His lone mistake was a lost fumble. This game won't be as easy as some are saying.

marko358 · Jan 12, 2015

His TD/INT ratio is much worse on the road though.

2_0_6 · Jan 12, 2015

Eddie Lacy is head and shoulders above the scrap heap at RB Denver had playing last year. I know we shut him down earlier this year but that was due to a concussion. I believe he only played the 1st quarter IIRC?

Pandion Haliaetus · Jan 12, 2015

A

Hawk_Nation":i5294gwc said:
Eddie Lacy is head and shoulders above the scrap heap at RB Denver had playing last year. I know we shut him down earlier this year but that was due to a concussion. I believe he only played the 1st quarter IIRC?

Hence, why I said it was hard to decide due to style points. That was a nod to Eddie Lacy's aggressive style and how well Starks complements him.

But I wouldn't say heads and shoulders as Lacy and Moreno practically had the same stat lines from scrimmage, almost 1600 yards and 12+ TDs.

Montee Ball last year was probably better than Starks this season and he also complemented Moreno very well.

Keep in mind Broncos 3rd and 4th RBs were Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson...

Both of whom would combine this season for 1750 yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs with just 2 fumbles among them.

Wouldn't really call that a scrap heap group of RBs... they had a lot of talent.

Pandion Haliaetus · Jan 12, 2015

A

Hawk_Nation":3h693pwv said:
Eddie Lacy is head and shoulders above the scrap heap at RB Denver had playing last year. I know we shut him down earlier this year but that was due to a concussion. I believe he only played the 1st quarter IIRC?

Hence, why I said it was hard to decide due to style points. That was a nod to Eddie Lacy's aggressive style and how well Starks complements him.

But I wouldn't say heads and shoulders as Lacy and Moreno practically had the same stat lines from scrimmage, almost 1600 yards and 12+ TDs.

Montee Ball last year was probably better than Starks this season and he also complemented Moreno very well.

Keep in mind Broncos 3rd and 4th RBs were Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson...

Both of whom would combine this season for 1750 yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs with just 2 fumbles among them.

Wouldn't really call that a scrap heap group of RBs... they had a lot of talent.

olyfan63 · Jan 13, 2015

HawkFan72":1pw69l69 said:
I don't think a hobbled Rodgers is equal to Manning. Even on one leg, Rodgers still has a way better arm than Peyton at this point in their careers. Rodgers can still make all the throws.

Seattle was able to cheat up and disregard Peyton's deep throws in SB XLVIII. I don't think we can do that against even a hobbled Rodgers.

Also, Seattle needs to prepare on the assumption we'll face a 100% Aaron Rodgers. All the injury talk could be GB/Media sandbagging.

ExpatPack · Jan 13, 2015

Interesting stat sheet, but I don't think some of your comparisons fit.

1. Unless Rodgers' injury has gotten worse from last week, there is just no comparison between him and Manning. Plus, if Rodgers has some mobility (he won't be 100%) like he did in the 2nd half against Dallas, that may be enough to deal with the pressure sometimes. Seattle has a better pass rush than Dallas but not as good as Detroit's or Buffalo's, both of which the Packers faced.

2. Lacy is a cut above Moreno. He's Beast Mode Junior. Look at his stats for the season. The first 7 games he was not doing well, but then look at the games from week 11 on: 10 carries, 69 yards, 25 carries 125 yards, 21 carries 98 yards, 13 carries 78 yards, 15 carries 97 yards, 17 carries 99 yards, 26 carries 100 yards, and against Dallas, 19 carries 101 yards and that's with having an asthma attack in the 2nd quarter. Plus he's become an effective target for Rodgers out of the backfield.

3. I agree that Seattle's offense is underrated. Wilson and Lynch are really tough to defend as a pair. Packers's run defense is middling at best.

mort · Jan 13, 2015

"I think I've got 120 minutes left in me," Rodgers said, per ESPNWisconsin.com. "So I'm going to do everything I can to make sure I can play all those minutes."
I'll give him 45, maybe.

Chawks1 · Jan 13, 2015

ExpatPack":1prxfmwu said:
Interesting stat sheet, but I don't think some of your comparisons fit.

1. Unless Rodgers' injury has gotten worse from last week, there is just no comparison between him and Manning. Plus, if Rodgers has some mobility (he won't be 100%) like he did in the 2nd half against Dallas, that may be enough to deal with the pressure sometimes. Seattle has a better pass rush than Dallas but not as good as Detroit's or Buffalo's, both of which the Packers faced.

2. Lacy is a cut above Moreno. He's Beast Mode Junior. Look at his stats for the season. The first 7 games he was not doing well, but then look at the games from week 11 on: 10 carries, 69 yards, 25 carries 125 yards, 21 carries 98 yards, 13 carries 78 yards, 15 carries 97 yards, 17 carries 99 yards, 26 carries 100 yards, and against Dallas, 19 carries 101 yards and that's with having an asthma attack in the 2nd quarter. Plus he's become an effective target for Rodgers out of the backfield.

3. I agree that Seattle's offense is underrated. Wilson and Lynch are really tough to defend as a pair. Packers's run defense is middling at best.

Actually in regards to pass rush DVOA we are ranked #14 and Detroit #18. Dallas was ranked #29. Our pass rush is a little better. (BTW Green Bay is ranked #13 & Bufalo was #1)...... And neither Detroit or Buffalo had our secondary. That is the strength of the D. If Rodgers chooses to avoid Sherman again we then just need to defend 2\3 of the field too. Should be a good chess match.

Game VS Packers is Similar to SB 48

Pandion Haliaetus

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