The other Russell Wilson

Was on Football Outsiders and they were arguing that there wasn't statistical evidence to support that Peyton Manning wasn't as good in the playoffs. I thought bull. We define a QB's greatness by their playoff success. In the playoffs they're playing the best the NFL has to offer, not the cream puffs they get on their regular schedule. On average, a QB's key ratings should decrease in the playoffs. The great ones, like Joe Montana, should see their playoff ratings stay the same or even increase.

So I did a blind test. Blind in that I had no idea whether or not the players I checked on would actually have better or worse stats. I named three QB's I though were actually average or worse in the playoffs. Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck. Brady may surprise people but he plays a cream puff schedule every year that pads his stats. Then I named two QB's that have a reputation of being the greatest in the game come playoff time. Joe Montana and Brett Favre. Then I added in Russell Wilson.

These are the stats I used to determine a QB's greatness:
Completion %. This should dip slightly in the playoffs.
TD%. Do they rise to the occasion?
INT%. Or do they choke?
AYA (Adjusted Yards per pass Attempt). Considered a good metric of how well a QB is passing the ball.
ANYA (Adjusted Net Yards per pass Attempt). Takes into consideration the effect of sacks.

The results (regular season/playoffs):

The Not So Great After All QB's

Tom Brady:
C% (63.5/62.3)
TD% (5.5/4.6)
INT% (2.0*/2.3)
AYA (7.6/6.7)
ANYA 6.95/6.45

As you might expect, Brady's stats get worse in the playoffs vs quality opponents. They don't dip much however, except TD% takes a bit of a dip.

Peyton Manning:
C% (65.5*/64.0*)
TD% (5.9/4.1)
INT% (2.6/2.6)
AYA (7.7/6.9)
ANYA (7.27*/6.77)

Peyton leads all these guys in completion % so he's still great in the playoffs, but he does get slightly worse. In all other categories excetp INT% he gets worse in the playoffs.

Andrew Luck:
C% (58.6/59.5)
TD% (4.7/4.0)
INT% (2.4/4.4)
AYA (7.0/6.3)
ANYA (6.33/5.89)

Not only does Luck get worse in the playoffs in every category except completion %, but he's pretty much got the worst stats of this entire group.

The GREAT ONES

Joe Montana:
C% (63.2/62.7)
TD% (5.1/6.1* )
INT% (2.6/2.9)
AYA (7.4/7.8 )
ANYA (6.6/7.8 )

His completion % slightly dips and he gives up slightly more INTs, but he is the TD God of this group. And his ANYA significantly improves as well. Overall increase in 3 of the 5 categories.

Brett Favre:
C% (62.0/60.8 )
TD% (5.0/5.6)
INT% (3.3/3.8 )
AYA (6.6/6.8 )
ANYA (5.93/6.76)

Again, we see increase in 3 of 5 categories. It's Favre's INT's that go up and that's what the gunslinger was known for, blowing playoff games with untimely INTs. His completion % dipped vs superior opponents as well.

Russell Wilson:
C% (63.4/63.8 )
TD% (5.8*/5.9)
INT% (2.1/0.7* )
AYA (8.2*/9.9* )
ANYA (6.93/8.39* )

Russell Wilson gets better in every single category. His INT% is absurdly low. His AYA and ANYA in the playoffs blow away all the other "elite" QB's come playoff time. In fact, Wilson leads this group in 5 of the 10 possible stats regular and post season. 3 of 5 playoff stats belong to Wilson.

* denotes leads this group in that category.

fap

IIRC, his only playoff INT was a hail mary at the end of the Falcon game.

You mean this other Russell Wilson?

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Russell-Wilson-46986

SacHawk2.0":2l73hhig said:

fap

Click to expand...

Well said sir. Pretty much summed up the maelstrom of happy thoughts I had in my head into one small word. :th2thumbs:

Maybe we should call him Elite Dangeruss.

Such a cool breakdown tool...I would love to see this applied to so many past qbs. Great work.

Stabler vs Bradshaw
Elway vs Kelly
Montana vs Marino

Very cool post

peachesenregalia":2chcikyu said:

What a great post and good breakdown of what's going on here. Wilson and Luck have relatively low sample sizes compared to the others, but man, that is encouraging stuff there.

Click to expand...

This covers my thoughts as well. If this trend continues Russ will easily be considered the most clutch QB of all time. Time will tell, but I like his chances. Been saying it since the Chicago game in '11, the kid is really special.

Sterlinghawk":1tj9ohb6 said:

Such a cool breakdown tool...I would love to see this applied to so many past qbs. Great work.

Stabler vs Bradshaw
Elway vs Kelly
Montana vs Marino

Very cool post

Click to expand...

Typing it up would be really time consuming, but it's easy to look up the all time greats and give you a synopsis.

Fran Tarkenton: Sucked bad in the playoffs. I mean really bad. Makes Luck look awesome.

Terry Bradshaw: The Blonde Bomber definitely rose to the occasion.
C% (51.9%/57.2)
TD% (5.4/6.6)...Better than Joe Montana!
INT% (5.4/5.7)
AYA (5.8/7.2)
ANYA (4.77/7.16)

What a leap in everything except INT%. His game rose immensely come playoff time.

Kenny Stabler: And The Snake rose for the occasion as well.
C% (59.8/57.8 )
TD% (5.1/5.4)
INT% (5.9/3.7)
AYA (5.8/6.9)
ANYA (4.74/6.94)

The Snake was great in his day as well. Really reduced those INT's though. No wonder Pitt/Oak were such great games!

Drew Brees: Deserves to have his stats listed, they're quite good.
C% (66.2/65.9)
TD% (5.3/5.2)
INT% (2.6/1.3)
AYA (7.4/8.1)
ANYA (6.84/7.76)

His two regressions are so close as to not really be regressions at all. And his INT% halves come playoff time.

Dan Marino's stats drop in every single category. This is why Joe Montana has so many rings and Marino does not. They are even lower than Bradshaw's and Stablers from the previous decade. Mr. Overrated.

John Elway: Worse in Completion % and INT%. Even in TD%, better in AYA and ANYA.

Jim Kelly: dropped in every single category. Didn't plummet. In that second tier of elite with Manning and Brady though.

Johnny Unitas: this one shocked the crap out of me. He sucked in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Dropped in every category.

Troy Aikman went up in 4 of 5 categories.

Bart Starr: Now we're talking Russell Wilson league.
C% (57.4/61.0)
TD% (4.8/7.0)......We have a new TD God. :bow:
INT% (4.4/1.4)
AYA (6.8/9.0)
ANYA (6.55/9.0)

This, ladies and gentlemen, is what Russell Wilson strives for after an entire career.

Btw, Steve Young couldn't carry Joe Montana's jock during playoff time.

Good job Salish, I'm surprised that a stat site like Football Outsider can't even figure out why Manning struggles in the playoffs and here you are making it look easy to come up with. You'd think they don't want any stats to tarnish the great Manning.

Love the idea, format, and your presentation, Salish. I'm in complete agreement that Russell Wilson is an exceptional quarterback in the playoffs who does not receive nearly enough recognition outside of the PNW for his role in the offense. I also have a few qualms with the thought process that lead to the conclusion. I hope they don't take away from what you've done here and instead only serve to enhance it and the overall appreciation for our offense as a whole.

The statistical analysis done here falls into the trap that all current stats do when trying to rate a single player in the NFL. They can't separate individual performance from team performance. Thus, when you demonstrate that Russell Wilson's stats improve during the playoffs as you have here, the stats themselves don't truly suggest Russell Wilson alone gets better during the playoffs; they suggest that during RW's tenure our entire passing offense has succeeded at a greater rate during the playoffs thus far. What you've uncovered could be a mere streak found in a small sample size but it could also be another testament to the hidden effectiveness of one of the most underrated offenses in the NFL and not just Russell Wilson.

Russell is a unique species. He often gets nervous and plays tight against bad teams, but in clutch moments or in huge games against good teams, he is standing in the eye of the storm. It's like some switch goes off in his brain when the pressure hits a certain point.

It shouldn't be surprising then that Wilson has such an absurd postseason passer rating. You look at his stats against playoff teams for his career in the regular season and it's probably around the same number.

Can I just say it must be pure Luck(pardon the pun) that Luck somehow managed to have a 3-2 rating in the playoffs when he has 9TD and 10Int with a 77.8 rating so far in the postseason..I mean WTH man... :x That puts him 35th all time in QB rating for Career in the postseason and 15th for QBs who are currently playing. The only QB who he beats in QB rating is Andy Dalton...Andy....Dalton.... :roll:

Also can I also say that Wilsons INT% is zero..yes...it is ZERO. How the heck can we count a last second bomb to the endzone an INT when he won the game with 36 seconds left only to have the D choke it away.

The only real turnover he has in the playoffs is that fumble against the 49ers

I love Wilson though. He is a revolutionary QB. There is not a single QB like him in NFL History. He is a new kind of QB.

The reason he is prob so good in the postseason is because he has to play the best defenses 6 times a year inside the division and then he has to practice against THE BEST defense in practice day in and day out. When he gets to the playoffs he has played a ton of great Ds before even playing. And dont forget how relentless he is in preperation. I think our whole team is filled with film junkies.

Sometimes I think Russell was made for these moments.

Cool post. Good work.

Thanks for looking those up Salish...


Snake on !

What is the media darling Aaron Rodgers stats in this regard.. I would think they would dip because of his lack of success in the postseason. (he has just 6 playoff wins in 8 years- Russell has 5) hopefully they are all tied up come Sunday evening.

jlwaters1":3369evnx said:

What is the media darling Aaron Rodgers stats in this regard.. I would think they would dip because of his lack of success in the postseason. (he has just 6 playoff wins in 8 years- Russell has 5) hopefully they are all tied up come Sunday evening.

Click to expand...

Aaron Rodgers:
C%: (65.8/66.3)
TD%: (6.5/6.2)
INT%: (1.6/1.4)
AYA: (8.8/8.6)
ANYA: (7.75/7.55)

Almost didn't color code them because frankly, those numbers are remarkably consistent from regular season to post season. And they're really freaking good numbers! He'll be in more playoff games and those should change, but honestly, he's one of the best simply because he stays good all year long, he doesn't need to rise.

Still not in Bart Starr, Russell Wilson range.

Wow. Just wow.
Goosebumps

And for easy comparisons sake: (most improved that category in green. Least improved in red)

C%
QB...........................regular......playoff
Aaron Rodgers..........65.8..........66.2
Drew Brees................66.2..........65.9
Peyton Manning.........65.5..........64.0
Russell Wilson...........63.4..........63.8
Joe Montana..............63.2..........62.7
Tom Brady..................63.5..........62.3
Bart Starr....................57.4..........61.0
Brett Favre.................62.0..........60.8
Andrew Luck..............58.6..........59.5
Kenny Stabler............59.8..........57.8
Terry Bradshaw..........51.9..........57.2

TD%
Bart Starr...................4.8..........7.0
Terry Bradshaw..........5.4..........6.6
Aaron Rodgers...........6.5..........6.2
Joe Montana...............5.1..........6.1
Russell Wilson............5.8..........5.9
Brett Favre..................5.0..........5.6
Kenny Stabler.............5.1..........5.4
Drew Brees.................5.3..........5.2
Tom Brady...................5.5..........4.6
Peyton Manning..........5.9..........4.1
Andrew Luck...............4.7..........4.0

INT%
Russell Wilson.............2.1..........0.7
Drew Brees..................2.6..........1.3
Aaron Rodgers.............1.6..........1.4
Bart Starr......................4.4..........1.4
Tom Brady.....................2.0..........2.3
Peyton Manning............2.6..........2.6
Joe Montana.................2.6..........2.9
Kenny Stabler...............5.9..........3.7
Brett Favre....................3.3..........3.8
Andrew Luck.................2.4..........4.4
Terry Bradshaw.............5.4..........5.7

AYA
Russell Wilson............8.2..........9.9
Bart Starr.....................6.8..........9.0
Aaron Rodgers............8.8..........8.6
Drew Brees..................7.4..........8.1
Joe Montana................7.4..........7.8
Terry Bradshaw............5.8..........7.2
Peyton Manning...........7.7..........6.9
Kenny Stabler...............5.8..........6.9
Brett Favre....................6.6..........6.8
Tom Brady.....................7.6..........6.7
Andrew Luck.................7.0..........6.3

ANYA
Bart Starr.......................6.55..........9.0
Russell Wilson...............6.93..........8.39
Joe Montana..................6.6............7.8
Drew Brees....................6.84..........7.76
Aaron Rodgers...............7.75..........7.55
Terry Bradshaw......... .....4.77..........7.16
Kenny Stabler.................4.74..........6.94
Peyton Manning..............7.27..........6.77
Brett Favre......................5.93..........6.76
Tom Brady.......................7.6............6.7
Andrew Luck...................6.33..........5.89


Russell Wilson tops two lists, has a second, a fourth and a fifth. Those are all HOFers or going to be.

Andrew Luck is at the bottom of three lists, second from the bottom and third from the bottom.

Top Five appearances: Russell Wilson 5, Aaron Rodgers 5, Bart Starr 4, Joe Montana 4, Drew Brees 4, Terry Bradshaw/Peyton Manning/Tom Brady 1 each

Bottom Five appearances: Andrew Luck 5, Kenny Stabler 5, Brett Favre 4, Tom Brady 3, Peyton Manning 3, Several have 1.

Anyone esle think this thread was going to be about this?