Investing $ in Russell saves money in other areas

seabowl

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With Russell Wilson due a huge payday some people think he should give the Hawks a hometown discount. While I believe he won't do this, in the end he will save us money in other ways. Particularly having to spend less on the OL. With his unreal ability to escape pressure and create something magical out of nothing we do not need all pros on this line to be successful as proven by the last few years. Dallas has literally had to build most of their OL through first round picks in order to become a reliable and viable offense. Now I'm not saying if we don't have the opportunity to go out and get a great lineman not to do it however Russell does provide the luxury of getting a guy like Britt or Bailey in a lower round and is able to make it work for us. Obviously this also includes free agency.

Interestingly enough IMO without a guy like Russell IMO I believe OL is probably the best and safest way to go for any team picking in the first round. He'll even Varp has become more than serviceable even with all the injuries and weight issues.

For these reasons having a guy like Russ is worth more than meets the eye. Boy do I wish I was his agent.

Thoughts?
 

edogg23

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You're forgetting the Seahawks are a running team and you need a good offensive line to run the ball. Also do you really want your 20+ million dollar investment scrambling for his life on every passing play? The spot where he might save you money is wide receivers. Since he spreads the ball out a lot, and we run it so much, you can get by with undrafted guys like we are.
 

themunn

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I was thinking about this and we've locked up almost all the core guys on Defense:

ET, Sherm, Kam, Avril, Bennett, KJ. We just need to lock up Wagner and Irvin and we basically have our defense set for the next 3-4 years.

On offense, the only guy we have on a long term contract is Baldwin. But I was thinking about the guys we could really consider core guys, and that's just Wilson, Sweezy (who I'm beginning to think is the darling of the O-Line) and 50/50 on Lynch (who is a core guy, but maybe not one they see a long term future with) and Okung (again, I'm not sure how the FO view him). So lock up Wilson and Sweezy and it almost feels like they're happy just to plug in the pieces around him - which is basically what the Patriots have done for a decade with Brady, they had some previous core guys like Koppen, Welker, Mankins and now it's Vollmer, Solder and Gronk.

As long as your QB can tilt the field, you don't need to put massive investment in to score points
 

themunn

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edogg23":19yxgq4q said:
You're forgetting the Seahawks are a running team and you need a good offensive line to run the ball. Also do you really want your 20+ million dollar investment scrambling for his life on every passing play? The spot where he might save you money is wide receivers. Since he spreads the ball out a lot, and we run it so much, you can get by with undrafted guys like we are.

You say that, but over the last 3 years, how many O-Linemen have started games for us?

Okung, Carpenter, Unger, Sweezy, Britt, Bailey, Lewis, Jeanpierre, Schilling, Giacomini, Bowie, McQuistan, Moffit, Omiyale...

It would definitely be nice to have 5 elite guys we can rely on to protect Russell, but we've been running OK behind these guys for a long time.
 

Brahn

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themunn":2un3lzy8 said:
edogg23":2un3lzy8 said:
You're forgetting the Seahawks are a running team and you need a good offensive line to run the ball. Also do you really want your 20+ million dollar investment scrambling for his life on every passing play? The spot where he might save you money is wide receivers. Since he spreads the ball out a lot, and we run it so much, you can get by with undrafted guys like we are.

You say that, but over the last 3 years, how many O-Linemen have started games for us?

Okung, Carpenter, Unger, Sweezy, Britt, Bailey, Lewis, Jeanpierre, Schilling, Giacomini, Bowie, McQuistan, Moffit, Omiyale...

It would definitely be nice to have 5 elite guys we can rely on to protect Russell, but we've been running OK behind these guys for a long time.


Of course it would be great to have 5 elite guys to block for Russel. Every team wants 5 elite guys. No team has 5 elite guys.

If you have 5 above average Oline and good depth you should be fine. While we lack Pass Pro we make up for it in Run Pro.

Dallas had the best O-line in the league supposedly. Seahawks about to repeat with a motley crew at O-line just like last season.

Just give me 5 guys who play 80% of the games in a season together and can do their jobs above the average.
 

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Going back to his NC State days, RW has never really needed a great offensive line to excel. At State he had an average to below average line and still picked defenses apart while having the most pass attempts without an interception. He also isn't the type of QB who plays favorites with WR's. He spreads the ball around to everyone so the need for a true, elite #1 WR isn't as important.

Once he gets paid the seahawks can probably get away with not spending a ton on those positions and can use that money to keep the defense intact.
 

12thManNorth

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good points all around. More than any other QB in the league, you can make the argument that Russell is more effective with an average offensive line, compared to an elite one. When in the pocket his height can play a negative role, but when forced to scramble his height actually becomes an advantage more than anything
 

northseahawk

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It really doesn't matter most of the time when RW has enough time in a comfortable pocket because he has to run outside. That's his game. So we don't really need all-pros to give him all day in the pocket.
 

ptisme

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Packer fan here. Questions for Hawks fans:
1. How much do you think it will cost to get Wilson signed? I'm thinking at least as much as Rodgers.

2. What does you salary cap look like for next year?

3. Free agents you may lose/lock up?

4. Core guys becoming free agents next year?

Obviously I'm curious because you're the main obstacle standing in the way of more Lombardi's for my team while the Rodgers window is still open...
 

theincrediblesok

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12thManNorth":399foqje said:
good points all around. More than any other QB in the league, you can make the argument that Russell is more effective with an average offensive line, compared to an elite one. When in the pocket his height can play a negative role, but when forced to scramble his height actually becomes an advantage more than anything

His height is still an advantage when he's in the pocket. Richard Sherman mention that during a practice interview. He said it's hard to see where Wilson is throwing cause you can't see him behind that line, just balls shooting out like lasers (he actually makes the laser noise).
 
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seabowl

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edogg23":25t5dq8u said:
You're forgetting the Seahawks are a running team and you need a good offensive line to run the ball. Also do you really want your 20+ million dollar investment scrambling for his life on every passing play? The spot where he might save you money is wide receivers. Since he spreads the ball out a lot, and we run it so much, you can get by with undrafted guys like we are.

He's already scrambling for his life now and doing a pretty damn good job behind a so so pass blocking line. I'm not saying to completely ignore the line however with a QB like Russ you can find OL that don't have to be top tier.
 

Russ Willstrong

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seabowl":1pz50sm3 said:
edogg23":1pz50sm3 said:
You're forgetting the Seahawks are a running team and you need a good offensive line to run the ball. Also do you really want your 20+ million dollar investment scrambling for his life on every passing play? The spot where he might save you money is wide receivers. Since he spreads the ball out a lot, and we run it so much, you can get by with undrafted guys like we are.

He's already scrambling for his life now and doing a pretty damn good job behind a so so pass blocking line. I'm not saying to completely ignore the line however with a QB like Russ you can find OL that don't have to be top tier.
Russell had a GOOD offensive line in Wisconsin and only set the all time NCAA passer rating. But you may be right that he doesn't need a great line even though it would help extend his career. Should also buy more a truck load of Skittles for Marshawn hoping he'll play cheap too?
 

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If you look at it, we've invested more high draft picks on the OL than any other position.

Whether or not those picks lived up to the expectations of those high picks is another discussion.
 

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ptisme":3s9mpcx2 said:
Packer fan here. Questions for Hawks fans:
1. How much do you think it will cost to get Wilson signed? I'm thinking at least as much as Rodgers.

2. What does you salary cap look like for next year?

3. Free agents you may lose/lock up?

4. Core guys becoming free agents next year?

Obviously I'm curious because you're the main obstacle standing in the way of more Lombardi's for my team while the Rodgers window is still open...

1. Most people are saying just over the highest-paid quarterback, so somewhere in the $22/year range probably.

2. I'm not the expert on salary caps, but it appears we will have enough to do this and save just enough for some other key signings. Our front office has been pretty savvy in this regard, while still dishing out the merited high-dollar contract on occasion.

3. Some of the periphery guys will probably end up walking. Most people say Maxwell is the one we'll most likely lose first. The jury's still out on Lynch, whether they think he's getting too old or whether he has another year of high production left. Conjecture at the beginning of the year had this year as his last, but it doesn't appear nearly that way now.

4. Most of our core guys are signed for the immediate few years. The Legion of Boom, Wilson (assuming his new contract), Baldwin, Bennett, all shored up, so no real superstar free agents in the immediate future. If Lynch stays another year, then that one will probably be his last.

Others will probably chime in better, but we're looking pretty solidly intact for the foreseeable future. And with the projected rise in salary cap figures, we might even be set on some of the periphery guys like Maxwell, and/or have enough to bring in a star free agent.
 

jblaze

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ptisme":15q71i4l said:
Packer fan here. Questions for Hawks fans:
1. How much do you think it will cost to get Wilson signed? I'm thinking at least as much as Rodgers.

2. What does you salary cap look like for next year?

3. Free agents you may lose/lock up?

4. Core guys becoming free agents next year?

Obviously I'm curious because you're the main obstacle standing in the way of more Lombardi's for my team while the Rodgers window is still open...

1. Around 21-22M most likely. Probably 6 years and A LOT guaranteed. Year one cap hit around 8m then it balloons.

2. Next years salary cap is expected to be around 143m give or take a couple mil.

3. Free agents actually look pretty good for the Hawks. We locked up Avril and Wright which were too big UFA's coming up. Wagner and RW are not UFA's but are eligible to be extended this offseason and we'll lock both of them up because they're so crucial to our success. Some potential cuts are Lynch, Miller and Mebane but given the way they've played this year I think we keep all three of them. The only person I do think we lose is Maxwell and we do have Simon waiting in the wings to step into the #2CB spot next year no problem. So unfortunately for the rest of the league, we've got everyone we need locked up for the foreseeable future as our front office is on it.

4. See #3. We likely lose only Maxwell. The rest of the players we lose are role players (LB Smith, SS Johnson, etc).

Sucks for the rest of the league but we're poised to be around for a few years. All major parts of our team are pretty much locked up. One thing that is unpredictable though is Lynch. He's our engine and who knows what he decides to do next year although he is under contract.
 

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In regards to Wilson I can't deny that there isnt a QB that can do as much with so little, but I also wonder if Russel is part of the pass blocking problem. It seems like he scrambles outside of where a pocket would normally develop early and often which means the line doesnt get to block with normal pass pro techniques. I wonder if he has some of the blame.....

Russell Wilson is 26 years old, my age, he is most likely at his Physical peak right now. What happens when is elusiveness and scrambling ability decline by 5 points on Madden? A lot of those plays that defenders miss by an inch become tackles.... I dont know, just some random thoughts and wishful thinking.
 

olyfan63

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ringless":2ucq3c3a said:
In regards to Wilson I can't deny that there isnt a QB that can do as much with so little, but I also wonder if Russel is part of the pass blocking problem. It seems like he scrambles outside of where a pocket would normally develop early and often which means the line doesnt get to block with normal pass pro techniques. I wonder if he has some of the blame.....

Russell Wilson is 26 years old, my age, he is most likely at his Physical peak right now. What happens when is elusiveness and scrambling ability decline by 5 points on Madden? A lot of those plays that defenders miss by an inch become tackles.... I dont know, just some random thoughts and wishful thinking.

I've appreciated your history of rival fair-devils-advocate voice of reason posts here 8)

I think you WERE right about Russell being part of the pass-blocking problem this season. That first Cards game, where he took 7 sacks... no more than 2 were truly on the O-Line. Scottemojo started a great thread on that, with snapshots of the 7 sacks and what led to them. Very revealing thread, got past the assumptions and cliches about the "crappy" O-Line and showed what was actually happening in the game.

I said WERE right, because Wilson/Bevell/Cable/WR's/TE's seem to have cleaned that up a LOT the last few games. I think part of that was the emergence of Paul Richardson as a quick go-to target. With Richardson out, maybe SOME of that problem comes back. However, Bevell/Wilson/Willson have also figured out how to use Luke Willson's strengths. That's helped too. Russell now knows he has to throw floaters to Willson or well within his body frame, not extend-your-frame bullets like he had been. Willson was dropping those. Britt has also improved his pass-pro a bunch the last few games. Bottom line, I think this issue is 80% resolved going forward. The other 20% is a risk-reward thing that comes with the territory; the play breaks down, and Russell does his Houdini act.

You're right, Russell will need better from his O-Line as he hits 30 or slows down a half step due to wear and tear. Today's Houdini escapes do become tomorrow's sacks. That said, I think our O-Line mostly stays together and keeps improving. We got Britt for 3 more years he'll get better; Sweezy keeps getting better; I think we keep Okung and get better health from him, and either Carpenter or Bailey stick around and play well, and the unit as a whole gets better together. I don't know how much more Unger has in his tank; a couple seasons maybe; so we'll need an answer at center.

I still agree with the idea that Russell allows us to underspend a little on O-Line and WR, by getting beastly run blockers that need development as pass blockers, and having a swiss-army knife approach to receivers instead of HAVING TO have a "True #1" WR. We definitely need more WR help though... Offseason priority. Just not a break-the-bank thing. I don't know how much the combined OL + WR savings is, but it could be as much as $10-15M/season I suppose, compared to having an elite-paid OL guy or two plus an elite-paid #1 WR. We don't have to have a Larry Fitzgerald at WR; we get by with Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse. We can get by with a Russell Okung who seems to miss half the season hurt, on average, and plug in a UDFA rookie or 2nd year guy, and get by, with Russell using his legs more.

The bigger problem is that Russell is currently overperforming his contract by $20M per year. So that's allowed us to pay guys on D and have quality depth AND survive the Percy Harvin fiasco, and still have a shot. When we don't have a $20M outperform advantage over every other team at that key position, it makes it way harder.

If you guys in AZ had that $20M outperform advantage, maybe you spend it on healthy, high quality depth that helps you guys win an extra game this year. Your 2nd string depth played amazing, but when spots got to 3rd string, esp. QB, there was finally a big dropoff. And maybe with $20M, Arians and Cards FO go shopping for some spendy OL protection for Palmer that keeps him upright. OK, moot, you guys don't have that $20M outperform room, WE do. But only for one more year, and even then, it's more like 15M next year, considering extensions.

Anyway, between the $20M outperform factor, and the ability to save $15M in elite OL and WR talent, Wilson gives us nearly a $35M salary cap advantage over most other teams in the NFL. Considering all that, possibly the best draft choice in NFL history.
 
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seabowl

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olyfan63":3c4ay3o0 said:
ringless":3c4ay3o0 said:
In regards to Wilson I can't deny that there isnt a QB that can do as much with so little, but I also wonder if Russel is part of the pass blocking problem. It seems like he scrambles outside of where a pocket would normally develop early and often which means the line doesnt get to block with normal pass pro techniques. I wonder if he has some of the blame.....

Russell Wilson is 26 years old, my age, he is most likely at his Physical peak right now. What happens when is elusiveness and scrambling ability decline by 5 points on Madden? A lot of those plays that defenders miss by an inch become tackles.... I dont know, just some random thoughts and wishful thinking.

I've appreciated your history of rival fair-devils-advocate voice of reason posts here 8)

I think you WERE right about Russell being part of the pass-blocking problem this season. That first Cards game, where he took 7 sacks... no more than 2 were truly on the O-Line. Scottemojo started a great thread on that, with snapshots of the 7 sacks and what led to them. Very revealing thread, got past the assumptions and cliches about the "crappy" O-Line and showed what was actually happening in the game.

I said WERE right, because Wilson/Bevell/Cable/WR's/TE's seem to have cleaned that up a LOT the last few games. I think part of that was the emergence of Paul Richardson as a quick go-to target. With Richardson out, maybe SOME of that problem comes back. However, Bevell/Wilson/Willson have also figured out how to use Luke Willson's strengths. That's helped too. Russell now knows he has to throw floaters to Willson or well within his body frame, not extend-your-frame bullets like he had been. Willson was dropping those. Britt has also improved his pass-pro a bunch the last few games. Bottom line, I think this issue is 80% resolved going forward. The other 20% is a risk-reward thing that comes with the territory; the play breaks down, and Russell does his Houdini act.

You're right, Russell will need better from his O-Line as he hits 30 or slows down a half step due to wear and tear. Today's Houdini escapes do become tomorrow's sacks. That said, I think our O-Line mostly stays together and keeps improving. We got Britt for 3 more years he'll get better; Sweezy keeps getting better; I think we keep Okung and get better health from him, and either Carpenter or Bailey stick around and play well, and the unit as a whole gets better together. I don't know how much more Unger has in his tank; a couple seasons maybe; so we'll need an answer at center.

I still agree with the idea that Russell allows us to underspend a little on O-Line and WR, by getting beastly run blockers that need development as pass blockers, and having a swiss-army knife approach to receivers instead of HAVING TO have a "True #1" WR. We definitely need more WR help though... Offseason priority. Just not a break-the-bank thing. I don't know how much the combined OL + WR savings is, but it could be as much as $10-15M/season I suppose, compared to having an elite-paid OL guy or two plus an elite-paid #1 WR. We don't have to have a Larry Fitzgerald at WR; we get by with Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse. We can get by with a Russell Okung who seems to miss half the season hurt, on average, and plug in a UDFA rookie or 2nd year guy, and get by, with Russell using his legs more.

The bigger problem is that Russell is currently overperforming his contract by $20M per year. So that's allowed us to pay guys on D and have quality depth AND survive the Percy Harvin fiasco, and still have a shot. When we don't have a $20M outperform advantage over every other team at that key position, it makes it way harder.

If you guys in AZ had that $20M outperform advantage, maybe you spend it on healthy, high quality depth that helps you guys win an extra game this year. Your 2nd string depth played amazing, but when spots got to 3rd string, esp. QB, there was finally a big dropoff. And maybe with $20M, Arians and Cards FO go shopping for some spendy OL protection for Palmer that keeps him upright. OK, moot, you guys don't have that $20M outperform room, WE do. But only for one more year, and even then, it's more like 15M next year, considering extensions.

Anyway, between the $20M outperform factor, and the ability to save $15M in elite OL and WR talent, Wilson gives us nearly a $35M salary cap advantage over most other teams in the NFL. Considering all that, possibly the best draft choice in NFL history.

Good analysis. On your last sentence only time will tell but at this point probably Brady gets the not with Warner in the discussion too and he wasn't even drafted.
 

olyfan63

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seabowl":1ddhdull said:
olyfan63":1ddhdull said:
<snip>
The bigger problem is that Russell is currently overperforming his contract by $20M per year. So that's allowed us to pay guys on D and have quality depth AND survive the Percy Harvin fiasco, and still have a shot. When we don't have a $20M outperform advantage over every other team at that key position, it makes it way harder.

If you guys in AZ had that $20M outperform advantage, maybe you spend it on healthy, high quality depth that helps you guys win an extra game this year. Your 2nd string depth played amazing, but when spots got to 3rd string, esp. QB, there was finally a big dropoff. And maybe with $20M, Arians and Cards FO go shopping for some spendy OL protection for Palmer that keeps him upright. OK, moot, you guys don't have that $20M outperform room, WE do. But only for one more year, and even then, it's more like 15M next year, considering extensions.

Anyway, between the $20M outperform factor, and the ability to save $15M in elite OL and WR talent, Wilson gives us nearly a $35M salary cap advantage over most other teams in the NFL. Considering all that, possibly the best draft choice in NFL history.

Good analysis. On your last sentence only time will tell but at this point probably Brady gets the nod with Warner in the discussion too and he wasn't even drafted.

I have an idea. Let's measure this one, all-time high-value draft pick, in 10-15 years, based on... Super Bowl rings!!

I mean, it's hard to argue with the unbelievable value of both Tom Brady, a 6th rounder, and Kurt Warner, UDFA.
After all, Wilson was a high-round draft choice by comparison to both. :D Since we're allowing high-round draft choices, then fellow 3rd-round, pick #82 (7 spots after Wilson), 4 Super Bowl rings, 3-time Super Bowl MVP Joe Montana should be added to the conversation. I'm not intentionally limiting it to the QB position, but no other position really has that ongoing game in game out, year in year out impact on wins, losses, and playoff success. And Troy Aikman, overall pick #1, was a bust compared to Montana, only 3 SB rings and 1 SB MVP.
 
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