Marshawn - The Lynch Pin of the Game

While all of the national talk this week is focusing on Aaron Rodgers, I would say the true key to this game is "How does Green Bay's Defense match up against Marshawn Lynch? Can they stop or hope to contain him?" Let's take a look at look at some of the numbers ...

Green Bay's Rush Defense ...
1919 Rushing Yards Allowed (23rd in the league)
119.9 Rushing Yards/Game (23rd in the league)
4.3 Yards/Attempt Average (tied for 19th in the league)
11 Rushing TD's Allowed (tied for 14th in the league)
116 Rushing 1st Downs Allowed (30th in the league -- 3rd Most allowed)
6 runs of 20 yards or more (tied for 2nd fewest in the league)
*11 Rushing Fumbles Caused (3rd Most in the League) -- the one potential area of concern that I can see in terms of the Packers' run defense

According to Football Outsiders, the Packers are the 24th ranked Run Defense in the league (-3.7)
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

In Week 1, Marshawn Lynch ran over the Packers Defense to the tune of ...
20 carries for 110 yards (5.5 yards/carry) and 2 TD at Century Link Field.

So why should we expect any different in this game?

Packer fans and other experts out there will be quick to point out; however, that over the 2nd half of the season, those numbers have improved. But have they really? Let’s take a look …

Week 10 vs. Bears … 24 carries … 55 yards (2.3 yards/carry) … 0 TD
Week 11 vs. Eagles … 31 carries … 109 yards (3.5 yards/carry) … 0 TD
Week 12 at Vikings … 25 carries … 112 yards (4.5 yards/carry) … 0 TD
Week 13 vs. Patriots … 18 carries … 84 yards (4.7 yards/carry) … 1 TD
Week 14 vs. Falcons … 24 carries … 91 yards (3.8 yards/carry) … 1 TD
Week 15 at Bills … 33 carries … 113 yards (3.4 yards/carry) … 0 TD
Week 16 at Buccaneers … 14 carries … 16 yards (1.1 yards/carry) … 0 TD
Week 17 vs. Lions … 23 carries … 111 yards (4.8 yards/carry) … 0 TD
DIV Game vs. Cowboys … 28 carries … 145 yards (5.2 yards/carry) … 1 TD

So, over the course of their last 9 games the Packers have allowed only 3 TD …
and have allowed 836 yards on the ground on 220 carries for an average of 3.8 yards/carry.
If they had kept that up over the entire season, that would tie them with the Jets for the 6th Best Yards/Carry Allowed Average.

Looking at that the list of teams has faced this year though, it should be pointed out that the Packers have faced only four top 10 Rushing Offenses this year (according to Football Outsiders) …

Week 1 at Seahawks (36-16 LOSS) … 37 carries … 207 yards (5.6 yards/carry) … 2 TD [Best in NFL]
Week 5 vs. Vikings (42-10 WIN) … 25 carries … 111 yards (4.4 yards/carry) … 1 TD [4th Best]
Week 8 at Saints (44-23 LOSS) … 31 carries … 193 yards (6.2 yards/carry) … 2 TD [9th Best]
Week 12 at Vikings (24-21 WIN) … 25 carries … 112 yards (4.5 yards/carry) … 0 TD [4th Best]
DIV Game vs. Cowboys (26-21 WIN) … 28 carries … 145 yards (5.2 yards/carry) … 1 TD [3rd Best]
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff

In those 5 games, the Packers have allowed a whopping average of 5.26 yards/carry and 6 rushing TD's.

Mark Ingram of the Saints piled up 172 yards on 24 carries (7.2 yards/carry) and a TD on the Pack at the Super Dome in Week 8.
DeMarco Murray ran for 123 yards on 25 carries and a TD last week at Lambeau Field.
Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks #1 Rushing Attack flat out ran over this team like a Sherman tank in Week 1 … and I see little reason to believe that they can’t do it again on Sunday.

Aaron Rodgers and his gimpy legged powered offense can’t score if it can’t get on the field. I’d look for Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks running game to be the griddle that will ultimately grill the cheese heads again come this Sunday.

it wouldn't surprise me if Lynch goes off... Cowboys probably took it to the streets on them and now they have to travel here.

Pandion Haliaetus":3eq3bf02 said:

it wouldn't surprise me if Lynch goes off... Cowboys probably took it to the streets on them and now they have to travel here.

Click to expand...

I expect Lynch to go off in this game. As we all know, Pete Carroll will look to establish the run first and foremost (because that's who he is) ... and the numbers appear to indicate that will be an effective strategy. Keep Aaron Rodgers and that explosive offense off the field. That formula has worked against high powered offenses in the past and I fully expect Carroll and Bevell to do the same in this game.

The question is, "Which way will Green Bay go in this game?" Will they play it more straight up? That's a potential mistake as Marshawn Lynch is liable to go off. Will they choose to sell out against the run, stack 8 in the box, and make Russell Wilson beat them? That's a dangerous formula for sure as well. Green Bay most certainly CAN stop the run. Absolutely they can ... but I don't see them being able to do so without paying a price. As history has shown, if you make Russell Wilson beat you ... more times than not he will find a way to do so.

I dunno. Green Bay fans -- given what you are hearing and what you know about your team, have you got any insight as to how you think Dom Capers is going to play this one? What does your gut tell you the strategy is coming in to this game ... and how effective do you think it's ultimately going to be?