SalishHawkFan
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Over at Cold Hard Football Facts they have what they call the Mother of All Stats: The Passer Rating Differential. 36% of all Super Bowl winners are #1 in this stat. 95% finish in the top 10.
Green Bay is 1st with a 27.83 differential.
Seattle is 4th with a 14.73 differential.
Over at Football Outsiders they use a stat called DVOA to determine who is the best team. It picked Seattle over Denver last year. This year, by an even wider margin, it says Seattle is better than Green Bay. Seattle ranks 1st, Green Bay 3rd.
Finally, over at Sporting Charts they track what is called the Toxic Differential. It tracks Big Plays and Turnover differential. The Super Bowl winner usually comes from the top 3 of this stat. Seattle ranks first with a 76 differential. Green Bay ranks 3rd with a 37 differential.
So what can we glean from these stats other than both these teams are really good? Let's take a closer look:
In the air
Green Bay has the better passing game. (Rodgers is injured, but we shall have to see how injured he is come Sunday to know how that is going to affect the game. Let's analyze this purely from the idea that he's not injured. Then the readers can adjust their take on this based on how much they think his injury will affect the game.) They rank 2nd in Passer Rating, 2nd in passing DVOA and 5th in passing Big Plays.
Seattle is no slouch in the air either. They rank 7th in Passer Rating, 5th in passing DVOA, but only 17th in passing Big Plays.
Both top 10 passing teams, definite advantage to Green Bay.
On the flip side, Seattle has the better secondary. They rank 5th in Defensive Passer Rating, 3rd in defensive passing DVOA and 1st in passing Big Plays having allowed only 17.
Green Bay has a decent secondary as well. They rank 7th in defensive Passer Rating, 11th in passing DVOA and 11th in passing Big Plays having allowed 27.
Both top 10 passing defenses, definite advantage to Seattle.
Overall, that's a wash then, even with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. The one clear advantage to Green Bay, the Big Plays passing, is cancelled out by the fact that Seattle allows the lest Big Plays passing in the NFL.
Now let's look at the game on the ground
Seattle has the better rushing game. CHFF ranks Seattle at #1 at 108.71, they're 1st in DVOA at 29.9% and they rank 1st in rushing Big Plays with 83.
Green Bay is pretty damn good running the ball too. CHFF ranks GB 7th at 97.42, they're 6th in DVOA at 5.1% and they rank 2nd in rushing Big Plays with 67.
Both top 10 rushing offenses, definite advantage to Seattle.
Here's where it gets ugly for Green Bay. On defense Seattle is definitely the better rushing defense and by far. Seattle ranks 2nd in Rusher Rating a 76.19(lower is better), 2nd in DVOA at -25.1% (negative is better) and 3rd in rushing Big Plays allowed at 30.
Green Bay, however, ranks only 16th in Rusher Rating at 88.14 , 24th in DVOA at -3.7% and 21st in rushing Big Plays allowed at 51. One should note that Green Bay has given up more rushing Big Plays than Seattle has given up Big Plays total (Seattle has only given up 44 Big Plays on the ground and through the air).
One should also note the vast differense in rushing DVOA. Offensively, 29.9% is way better than 5.1% while defensively, -25.1% is vastly better than -3.7%.
Then look at the Rushing Big Play Differential. Seattle has 83 rushing Big Plays and only allowed 30. Green Bay has 67 rushing Big Plays but allowed 51.
In Conclusion
Both teams can throw the ball but both teams defenses are equal in quality as well. Green Bay is better throwing, Seattle has the better secondary. Seattle is a top 10 passing team, Green Bay is a top 10 secondary.
On the ground, however, Seattle isn't just the best rushing attack, they're vastly better than a very good Green Bay rushing attack. Green Bay is a top 10 rushing team. Seattle ranks as one of the better ground attacks in DVOA history, is #1 in every ranking and it isn't even very close. Seattle, however, has one of the very best rush defenses, more highly ranked in stopping the run than Green Bay is ranked in rushing. Green Bay, on the other hand, is mediocre at best at stopping the run and they're going up against a fantastic rushing attack in Wilson/Lynch.
Add to that the game is in Seattle, the noise will affect Green Bay's audibles, Rodgers is hobbling and you probably have to give the advantage passing to Seattle as well.
Green Bays hopes rest upon Rodgers being in better health than it sounds and the not insignificant loss to Seattle of Mebane and Hill.
Green Bay is 1st with a 27.83 differential.
Seattle is 4th with a 14.73 differential.
Over at Football Outsiders they use a stat called DVOA to determine who is the best team. It picked Seattle over Denver last year. This year, by an even wider margin, it says Seattle is better than Green Bay. Seattle ranks 1st, Green Bay 3rd.
Finally, over at Sporting Charts they track what is called the Toxic Differential. It tracks Big Plays and Turnover differential. The Super Bowl winner usually comes from the top 3 of this stat. Seattle ranks first with a 76 differential. Green Bay ranks 3rd with a 37 differential.
So what can we glean from these stats other than both these teams are really good? Let's take a closer look:
In the air
Green Bay has the better passing game. (Rodgers is injured, but we shall have to see how injured he is come Sunday to know how that is going to affect the game. Let's analyze this purely from the idea that he's not injured. Then the readers can adjust their take on this based on how much they think his injury will affect the game.) They rank 2nd in Passer Rating, 2nd in passing DVOA and 5th in passing Big Plays.
Seattle is no slouch in the air either. They rank 7th in Passer Rating, 5th in passing DVOA, but only 17th in passing Big Plays.
Both top 10 passing teams, definite advantage to Green Bay.
On the flip side, Seattle has the better secondary. They rank 5th in Defensive Passer Rating, 3rd in defensive passing DVOA and 1st in passing Big Plays having allowed only 17.
Green Bay has a decent secondary as well. They rank 7th in defensive Passer Rating, 11th in passing DVOA and 11th in passing Big Plays having allowed 27.
Both top 10 passing defenses, definite advantage to Seattle.
Overall, that's a wash then, even with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. The one clear advantage to Green Bay, the Big Plays passing, is cancelled out by the fact that Seattle allows the lest Big Plays passing in the NFL.
Now let's look at the game on the ground
Seattle has the better rushing game. CHFF ranks Seattle at #1 at 108.71, they're 1st in DVOA at 29.9% and they rank 1st in rushing Big Plays with 83.
Green Bay is pretty damn good running the ball too. CHFF ranks GB 7th at 97.42, they're 6th in DVOA at 5.1% and they rank 2nd in rushing Big Plays with 67.
Both top 10 rushing offenses, definite advantage to Seattle.
Here's where it gets ugly for Green Bay. On defense Seattle is definitely the better rushing defense and by far. Seattle ranks 2nd in Rusher Rating a 76.19(lower is better), 2nd in DVOA at -25.1% (negative is better) and 3rd in rushing Big Plays allowed at 30.
Green Bay, however, ranks only 16th in Rusher Rating at 88.14 , 24th in DVOA at -3.7% and 21st in rushing Big Plays allowed at 51. One should note that Green Bay has given up more rushing Big Plays than Seattle has given up Big Plays total (Seattle has only given up 44 Big Plays on the ground and through the air).
One should also note the vast differense in rushing DVOA. Offensively, 29.9% is way better than 5.1% while defensively, -25.1% is vastly better than -3.7%.
Then look at the Rushing Big Play Differential. Seattle has 83 rushing Big Plays and only allowed 30. Green Bay has 67 rushing Big Plays but allowed 51.
In Conclusion
Both teams can throw the ball but both teams defenses are equal in quality as well. Green Bay is better throwing, Seattle has the better secondary. Seattle is a top 10 passing team, Green Bay is a top 10 secondary.
On the ground, however, Seattle isn't just the best rushing attack, they're vastly better than a very good Green Bay rushing attack. Green Bay is a top 10 rushing team. Seattle ranks as one of the better ground attacks in DVOA history, is #1 in every ranking and it isn't even very close. Seattle, however, has one of the very best rush defenses, more highly ranked in stopping the run than Green Bay is ranked in rushing. Green Bay, on the other hand, is mediocre at best at stopping the run and they're going up against a fantastic rushing attack in Wilson/Lynch.
Add to that the game is in Seattle, the noise will affect Green Bay's audibles, Rodgers is hobbling and you probably have to give the advantage passing to Seattle as well.
Green Bays hopes rest upon Rodgers being in better health than it sounds and the not insignificant loss to Seattle of Mebane and Hill.
