Biggest mismatch in Super Bowl according to DVOA

Seattle's #1 rushing offense by DVOA vs. New England's #14 rushing defense by DVOA.

By the way, Seattle's passing offense is ranked tenth, New England's passing defense is ranked twelfth.

This is another game where Seattle is clearly the better team. Assuming that they don't play their worst game ever again, they should win, just as they should have won every game they played so far in the playoffs.

Smelly McUgly":2bir803d said:

Seattle's #1 rushing offense by DVOA vs. New England's #14 rushing defense by DVOA.

By the way, Seattle's passing offense is ranked tenth, New England's passing defense is ranked twelfth.

This is another game where Seattle is clearly the better team. Assuming that they don't play their worst game ever again, they should win, just as they should have won every game they played so far in the playoffs.

Click to expand...

Glad to actually have a thread where I can talk stats, and how Seattle matches up with the Patriots.

No week 20 DVOA yet as there will only be four teams to update, probably coming later today or tomorrow.

Last weeks DVOA by Football Outsiders

New England comes in to the AFCCG with a -7.4 defensive DVOA which is ranked 12th overall to Seattle's -23.0 DVOA, which is easily first in the league.

Denver's DVOA was much lower following during and following the superb owl at -0.2.

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

HeatEquation":17zrqu4a said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

Really?

HeatEquation":3djq3d0f said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

Well, seeing as the top team team in 2013 DVOA rankings won the superbowl, and this season the top two teams in weighted DVOA are playing each other in the superbowl, and as 4 of the top 5 teams in weighted DVOA this season all won playoff games, I'd think that saying they mean "nothing" is a little.... dumb.

Evil_Shenanigans":2ijfvdsh said:

HeatEquation":2ijfvdsh said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

Really?

Click to expand...

Don't feed the troll....

HeatEquation":23zrg8lh said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

So you want take the Patriots victory on faith then? Because.. what else is there?

Well, that is one way to try and dismiss the Pats' mediocre run D, which of course was on display against BAL and was not tested against the worst rush offense in the playoffs last night.

DVOA is very predictive of winning teams in matchups, but let's let the kid who slept through a semester of Statistics 101 explain it to us.

HeatEquation":3rdoayd1 said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

This added literally nothing to the conversation.

So we shouldn't take stats too seriously or out of context? Really? I mean, no shit. And as someone who works in the physical sciences, I'd say this is a pretty good lesson in the physical sciences, too.

Stats like the one offered in the OP provide a good starting point for an intelligent conversation, and a sanity check against more subjective observations. For my part, I'll offer the following: I think the stat underrates the mismatch. #1 versus #14 sounds pretty good, but the Seahawks were #1 by a WIDE margin. With rare exception, they typically are able to run the ball with great success, and I'd be surprised if the Patriots and their roughly league average rush defense were able to do that without selling out. The real question is whether Wilson and the receivers can make plays in the passing game when the Pats do sell out to stop the run. Obviously they'll need to play a LOT better than yesterday if that's going to happen.

TheGreenMan":ietf5wbl said:

HeatEquation":ietf5wbl said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

So you want take the Patriots victory on faith then? Because.. what else is there?

Click to expand...

LOL, exactly. The people who don't believe in statistics are typically people who don't like what the statistics imply...

Largefarva":lr6sb6t2 said:

Evil_Shenanigans":lr6sb6t2 said:

HeatEquation":lr6sb6t2 said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

Really?

Click to expand...

Don't feed the troll....

Click to expand...

Hey, it's an improvement over his previous posts.

TheGreenMan":2bco48sb said:

HeatEquation":2bco48sb said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

So you want take the Patriots victory on faith then? Because.. what else is there?

Click to expand...

No. There are other more appropriate methods to make predictions regarding the outcome of football games. Statistical analysis helps when you thousands of predictions over the course of the entire year. In the presence of statistical analysis, you're more likely to be correct in most of those games given that wins and offense/defense stats will converge to their expected value over the course of a season. In a one game showdown, they mean nothing, however.

You probably also think that Brownian Motion is good model for the evolution of stock prices.

BocciHawk":19jr7jd1 said:

TheGreenMan":19jr7jd1 said:

HeatEquation":19jr7jd1 said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

So you want take the Patriots victory on faith then? Because.. what else is there?

Click to expand...

LOL, exactly. The people who don't believe in statistics are typically people who don't like what the statistics imply...

Click to expand...

Absurd statement. I have a degree in mathematics. I very much believe in statistics (when applied correctly to fields such as physics, chemistry, biology, etc.) What I don't believe in is pseudo-science.

HeatEquation":1jkt9r26 said:

TheGreenMan":1jkt9r26 said:

HeatEquation":1jkt9r26 said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

So you want take the Patriots victory on faith then? Because.. what else is there?

Click to expand...

No. There are other more appropriate methods to make predictions regarding the outcome of football games. Statistical analysis helps when you thousands of predictions over the course of the entire year. In the presence of statistical analysis, you're more likely to be correct given that wins and offense/defense stats will converge to their expected value over the course of a season. In a one game showdown, they mean nothing, however.

You probably also think that Brownian Motion is good model for the evolution of stock prices.

Click to expand...

Whistle past the graveyard much?

HeatEquation":184k3ewc said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

I haven't read so many words that said absolutely nothing since I was forced to read Tess of the D'Urbevilles in high school and I HATED that book. For all your ranting, you made exactly no comment on the actual subject, just criticized the use of statistics by "people" and subjected us to what really amounts to a nerdy tantrum.

Unfortunately for you, statistics is defined as the study, collection, interpretation, presentation and organization of data. Thus, I give you, data as accrued throughout a season of football played by 32 teams each with a 53 man starting roster where all play must fall within controlled parameters as set by the NFL Competition Committee. Any variety in the resultant outcome of the plays would be due to variables in the application of the rules and the players' abilities.

In short, it'd be great if people stopped saying stupid things, but that clearly isn't going to happen any time soon.

TheGreenMan":319dgvgs said:

HeatEquation":319dgvgs said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

So you want take the Patriots victory on faith then? Because.. what else is there?

Click to expand...

I'm not sure I'd want to go to Patriots Heaven. I mean, would we have to praise Victor Kiam, Scott Zolak, and Zeke Mowatt for all of eternity? I don't think even Patriots fans would want that.

HeatEquation":3r4db5hw said:

Brownian Motion

Click to expand...

College boy!

ManBunts":2omshf2r said:

HeatEquation":2omshf2r said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

I haven't read so many words that said absolutely nothing since I was forced to read Tess of the D'Urbevilles in high school and I HATED that book. For all your ranting, you made exactly no comment on the actual subject, just criticized the use of statistics by "people" and subjected us to what really amounts to a nerdy tantrum.

Unfortunately for you, statistics is defined as the study, collection, interpretation, presentation and organization of data. Thus, I give you, data as accrued throughout a season of football played by 32 teams each with a 53 man starting roster where all play must fall within controlled parameters as set by the NFL Competition Committee. Any variety in the resultant outcome of the plays would be due to variables in the application of the rules and the players' abilities.

In short, it'd be great if people stopped saying stupid things, but that clearly isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

You're clearly one of those who has never stepped foot into an advanced statistics course.

Any model, irrespective of how good or realistic, requires quality data to be fed into it. For data to be of high quality, you need multiple samples of sufficient size, and you need to be able to replicated each sample in a controlled environment. You can't take an NFL game and replicate the same outcome and then extrapolate anything meaningful from that.

HeatEquation":28reayfh said:

BocciHawk":28reayfh said:

TheGreenMan":28reayfh said:

HeatEquation":28reayfh said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

So you want take the Patriots victory on faith then? Because.. what else is there?

Click to expand...

LOL, exactly. The people who don't believe in statistics are typically people who don't like what the statistics imply...

Click to expand...

Absurd statement. I have a degree in mathematics. I very much believe in statistics (when applied correctly to fields such as physics, chemistry, biology, etc.) What I don't believe in is pseudo-science.

Click to expand...

Get over yourself. I suppose you also believe in randomness.

HeatEquation":2xniznrv said:

ManBunts":2xniznrv said:

HeatEquation":2xniznrv said:

These types of threads are generally very embarrassing for people who take them too seriously, and they don't even realize it.

I doubt many of you have taken a stats course beyond intro stats, so I don't expect you to have knowledge of advanced statistics on a theoretical level. Suffice to say, that the application of advanced statistics in fields outside of physical sciences is something you have to refrain from taking too seriously, due to the sample size, lack of ability to replicate the experiment in a controlled manner, etc. Without context, and without taking into account schemes and game plans, these stats mean nothing.

Not to mention that overall metrics that take into account the entire year don't mean much at the moment anyways.

It'd be great if people stopped misusing stats, but clearly that isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

I haven't read so many words that said absolutely nothing since I was forced to read Tess of the D'Urbevilles in high school and I HATED that book. For all your ranting, you made exactly no comment on the actual subject, just criticized the use of statistics by "people" and subjected us to what really amounts to a nerdy tantrum.

Unfortunately for you, statistics is defined as the study, collection, interpretation, presentation and organization of data. Thus, I give you, data as accrued throughout a season of football played by 32 teams each with a 53 man starting roster where all play must fall within controlled parameters as set by the NFL Competition Committee. Any variety in the resultant outcome of the plays would be due to variables in the application of the rules and the players' abilities.

In short, it'd be great if people stopped saying stupid things, but that clearly isn't going to happen any time soon.

Click to expand...

You're clearly one of those who has never stepped foot into an advanced statistics course.

Any model, irrespective of how good or realistic, requires quality data to be fed into it. For data to be of high quality, you need multiple samples of sufficient size, and you need to be able to replicated each sample in a controlled environment. You can't take an NFL game and replicate the same outcome and then extrapolate anything meaningful from that.

Click to expand...

If you believe in randomness, than maybe not. But as a master statistician, and scientist, you must be aware that randomness doesn't really exist. Therefore, you should be able replicate the same outcome, no?